#1121 ·
1.I feel quite confident in picking the underdog here, though even a straight win for the Liverpool @ 1.80 doesn't look half bad. Liverpool is currently sitting at 18th in the relegation zone, which means they desperately need to climb out of the basement as soon as possible. Their matchup against Norwich feels almost tailor-made for them, especially since Norwich barely scraped by Doncaster in the US Open Cup with a 1-0 win. I’ve noticed Liverpool is showing much more initiative lately, and their play is steadily improving. Granted, there have been some high-scoring affairs—like that 3-5 loss to the Y.Boys or that late collapse against Manchester where they conceded in the final ten minutes—but they played well overall, topped off by that recent cup win against West B.U. Looking at the head-to-head stats, Liverpool holds a solid 5-2-1 advantage. I suspect today might be the turning point where things finally start looking up for them. I’ll go a step further and say I’m backing them with a handicap.
2.Fulham isn't doing particularly well; they're sitting in 6th ahead of Man City, but I expect City to pass them by today. After four games where they dominated play but failed to finish, Man City is due for a victory. That last-minute loss to Real Madrid likely still stings, followed by an Arsenal equalizer in the 82nd minute and then that slip-up against A.Ville—whether intentional or not, it hardly matters. Mancini simply cannot afford another result like that, so he'll be pushing for a win today.
3.Milan, much like Liverpool, is showing plenty of initiative, though their rhythm seems a bit off. They showed great spirit during that away match against Udinese, recording 13 shots, 7 on target, and 51% possession, despite being hampered by two red cards. With suspensions served, Boateng and Zapata should return to the lineup today. El Shaarawy is in fine form, having bagged three goals in his last two outings, and I fully expect him to keep that streak alive. It also helps that Milan has managed to walk away with points in each of their last four meetings with this opponent.
4.Juventus is arguably the best squad in Italy right now. They remain undefeated in the league, with their only slight stumble being that recent away game against Fiorentina where they allowed 13 shots—only three on goal—despite holding 54% possession. Roma plays a very aggressive attacking style, but Juventus is well-positioned to exploit any gaps, especially with someone as dangerous as Vučinić on the pitch.
5.I am playing this one strictly on the numbers. In their last five or six head-to-head matchups, there have always been three or more goals scored. Similarly, in the last five games for both Werder and Bayern, four of them went over the total. Werder has proven to be a formidable attacking side this season, so I'm hoping they find the net at least once, while our man Mandžo hopefully nets two or three. 😁
6.I don't think this one requires much elaboration. The head-to-head record is heavily skewed at 32-7-3 in favor of Man Utd. Tottenham has definitely weakened lately; losing Modrić was a blow, even if he wasn't quite the linchpin he's become at Real, and Van der Vaart has headed back to Hamburg. On the other hand, Persie has been Ferguson's perfect find, scoring goals quite consistently, having already reached five. Without getting too bogged down in debate, I wouldn't be surprised if Man Utd finds themselves leading 1-0 by halftime.
Good luck!
☕
