#14221 ·
Quote: Initial Studies of other coronaviruses - The Common varieties that cause colds in the US
Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley just dropped a major study on the standard coronaviruses—specifically HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E. After digging through data collected over multiple years, they spotted a massive spike in similar coronavirus infections during February, whereas things basically flatline during the summer. It turns out these viruses definitely follow a seasonal rhythm, much like other studies have pointed out.
That said, the lead researchers aren't getting ahead of themselves. They issued a serious warning. “We might see steady but much lower rates of coronavirus transmission throughout the summer, though that could flip entirely once winter hits if there is still a huge number of people who haven't built up immunity yet,” he noted.
“Since we're dealing with a brand new virus, we can't be certain if this seasonal trend will actually stick during the summer, especially since so many people are still vulnerable. That's why it is absolutely vital that everyone follows the current health guidelines right now.”
From everything I've read in scientific papers so far, the main takeaway is pretty simple: because this specific mutation is totally new, nobody knows exactly how it'll behave under different conditions. But, it belongs to the same "family" of viruses that act exactly like the ones described in the text.