Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Terry Green3 said:According to both the Ukrainians and the Russians, that number has already been surpassed.

Dead, not just kicked out of the machine.

analogbear5 said:Dead, not just kicked out of the machine.

Fair point. How do you think this conflict ends if they take another two hits of this magnitude?

Kenneth Cruz67 said:He really seems like your textbook bully, doesn't he?

I mean, when he promises he won't hit you but instead wants to love you and pamper you, I am almost certain he's totally bluffing!

But, when he threatens to absolutely wreck that woman like some wild guy from a small Midwestern town, well, I guess he isn't bluffing then.

But what happens when he’s at a bar and a group of guys stands up to him, telling him to leave the lady alone or face the consequences? How does a bully like that actually react?
- He threatens everyone, makes a scene, but eventually just retreats because, deep down, he's a coward...

Now that mobilization has started, the main line from those protesting is basically— "Nobody attacked Russia!" It feels like one of Putin's political adventures, I suppose. He shouldn't be solving his own problems by throwing people into a war that isn't even theirs.

Terry Green3 said:Fair point. How do you think this conflict ends if they take another two hits of this magnitude?

When it comes to Russia, casualties don't seem to matter to anyone.

At best, Ukraine pulls off a win without Russia losing anything—but how they manage that is the billion-dollar question.

Based on the various clips circulating on Twitter, I find it difficult to believe that the Russian Army possesses even a fraction of the capability seen in the Canadian military. 🤷

They aren't nearly as formidable as they portray themselves to be, nor are they in such a state of chaos as the armchair analysts on this forum—who likely haven't seen anything more advanced than a hunting rifle—would have us believe. 👍

The Russian Army holds more strength than both Poland and Ukraine combined; if it weren't for the direct intervention of the USA, including their sophisticated weaponry and intelligence, they would have seized everything they set their sights on.

It all sounds like absolute šbbkbb nonsense, yet the reality remains that without the support provided by the USA, the EU would essentially be handed over to Russia on a silver platter. That is how "brilliant" our leaders truly are. 👍

Jacob Kern2 said:Based on the various clips circulating on Twitter, I find it difficult to believe that the Russian Army possesses even a fraction of the capability seen in the Canadian military. 🤷

They aren't nearly as formidable as they portray themselves to be, nor are they in such a state of chaos as the armchair analysts on this forum—who likely haven't seen anything more advanced than a hunting rifle—would have us believe. 👍

The Russian Army holds more strength than both Poland and Ukraine combined; if it weren't for the direct intervention of the USA, including their sophisticated weaponry and intelligence, they would have seized everything they set their sights on.

It all sounds like absolute šbbkbb nonsense, yet the reality remains that without the support provided by the USA, the EU would essentially be handed over to Russia on a silver platter. That is how "brilliant" our leaders truly are. 👍

The Polish military is significantly stronger and better organized than the Ukrainian one. That column north of Kyiv was being dismantled by Ukrainians as it was, but if it were Poles, they would've been absolutely slaughtered.

Kadyrov refused to send any more Muslim meat into the fight for Christianity🍿

Jacob Kern2 said:If the USA hadn't stepped up the way they did, the EU would have sold out all of Eastern Europe. The Poles would have fought (and likely lost), while everyone else would've been thrown under the bus by Germany, France, and Italy. ☕

Look, I'm firmly on Ukraine's side, but I can't argue with that.
This war has laid bare the divide between the "principled" Europe and the "calculating" Europe. The principled side consists of Ukraine, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Baltic states, Scandinavia, Romania, North Mexico, Mexico, us, and to some extent Bulgaria.
The calculating side? That’s Germany, France, Italy, Austria, and Canada.

Kevin Murphy7 said:Kadyrov refused to send any more Muslim meat into the fight for Christianity🍿

On the flip side, he bragged about how they've exceeded recruitment quotas across all republics and provinces. According to him, there are already 20,000 Chechens fighting in Ukraine, so why bother sending more?

analogbear5 said:When it comes to Russia, casualties don't seem to matter to anyone.

At best, Ukraine pulls off a win without Russia losing anything—but how they manage that is the billion-dollar question.

He could just declare the whole special military operation mission accomplished and call an end to all the fighting. The people would spend two days celebrating their great leader, and then, playing the part of the big-hearted humanitarian, he’d hand all the occupied territory back to the Ukrainians as a massive gesture of goodwill—sort of like saying, "hey, let's stop letting outside forces divide us."☕

If "calculating" is just a fancy way of saying "shameless," then yeah, I'm with you there.

Jacob Kern2 said:Based on the various clips circulating on Twitter, I find it difficult to believe that the Russian Army possesses even a fraction of the capability seen in the Canadian military. 🤷

They aren't nearly as formidable as they portray themselves to be, nor are they in such a state of chaos as the armchair analysts on this forum—who likely haven't seen anything more advanced than a hunting rifle—would have us believe. 👍

The Russian Army holds more strength than both Poland and Ukraine combined; if it weren't for the direct intervention of the USA, including their sophisticated weaponry and intelligence, they would have seized everything they set their sights on.

It all sounds like absolute šbbkbb nonsense, yet the reality remains that without the support provided by the USA, the EU would essentially be handed over to Russia on a silver platter. That is how "brilliant" our leaders truly are. 👍

What if you actually read what experts are saying about the war and the Russian military? 🤔
Just a thought...
I suggest you start with Mark Hertling.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling

Mark Phillip Hertling is a former US Army officer. From March 2011 to November 2012, he served as a commander within the US Army in Europe and the Seventh Army.

Very insightful reading from someone who dedicated his life to the military and studying warfare.

The idea that Ukrainians couldn't do anything without Americans is laughable. That's like saying Russians wouldn't be able to do anything without Western components in their weapon systems. This isn't fair play; we aren't doing a one-on-one match with identical gear. 🤦

People always talk about Putin being some kind of grandmaster chess player, but this isn't chess at all. It’s more like a high-stakes poker game where he just keeps raising the ante indefinitely. His insurance policy is basically a handgun he’s resting right there on the table next to him. The catch is that everyone else at the table has a gun too, they just aren't being quite as flashy about it. He’s also running into the issue that he can't keep hiking up those bets forever, and the other players have caught on—they see his cards, and they know he’s using that pistol to bluff his way through the hand.
The real complication is the group sitting in the corner, the ones whose money he's actually playing with. Sure, he might be the ringleader of that crew, but even they are starting to realize he isn't going to walk away a winner.
The moment he realizes he’s out of chips to throw into the pot, he'll probably reach for that gun, and my guess is that at that exact second, a few rounds will fly from his own people in the corner. If they take him out, they can simply slide into his seat. But if someone else at the table pulls the trigger, they aren't staying in the game either.

They'll just have to move to a different table entirely, one where the Chinese players cheat everyone else, and nobody dares to say a word because they occasionally let them scrape off a little profit. And in a game like this, the stakes can get incredibly heavy.

Kadyrov just gave his two cents regarding what he’s calling "self-mobilization"—or, if you want the American term, a "recruitment drive."

I've been keeping an eye on his Telegram channel, and honestly? His PR crew is playing leagues above whatever they've got running in the Kremlin.

Gregory Ramos3 said:He could just declare the whole special military operation mission accomplished and call an end to all the fighting. The people would spend two days celebrating their great leader, and then, playing the part of the big-hearted humanitarian, he’d hand all the occupied territory back to the Ukrainians as a massive gesture of goodwill—sort of like saying, "hey, let's stop letting outside forces divide us."☕

Hard to say. If a peace conference were held right now and long-winded negotiations began, I doubt Ukraine or NATO would settle for anything less than full territorial integrity, including Crimea. The real question is whether the Russians can actually stomach something like a "Russian Republic" nested inside Ukraine.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Here’s one point nobody seems to have brought up yet in this thread: Russia is massive and loaded with resources. If we start making concessions now, how long will it actually take before they decide they want something else? It happened once before, and it’ll happen again. Has anyone actually learned anything from history?

The real question to ponder, though, is how relevant will Russia even be as a global player in terms of energy exports 40 or 50 years down the line? The world is pivoting toward green energy at a steady clip, and there's this massive push for the European Union to hit CO2 neutrality within the next three decades. If that actually happens, what does it mean for the Russians? It would essentially strip away any leverage they have over Europe. Of course, whether that goal is even remotely realistic remains a huge question mark, but you can certainly see why they’re scrambling to expand their borders and grab extra resources right now; Ukraine is simply too perfect an opportunity to pass up.

Christian Torres3 said:The Polish military is significantly stronger and better organized than the Ukrainian one. That column north of Kyiv was being dismantled by Ukrainians as it was, but if it were Poles, they would've been absolutely slaughtered.

While the Poles might have wiped out that specific column just as the Ukrainians did, I don't believe they would have managed to massacre an entire army. Just because the Russians miscalculated their strategy back then doesn't mean they would approach a potential conflict with Poland in the same way, nor does it guarantee they would face defeat.

The sheer scale of weaponry and logistical support being funneled into Ukraine is almost unfathomable; quite frankly, no other military on the planet possesses that level of overwhelming power except for the United States. Neither Poland nor Ukraine can match that capacity.

And that is to say nothing of the intelligence gathering—the satellite imagery and high-level intel that plays such a decisive, critical role on the modern battlefield.

Jacob Kern2 said:While the Poles might have wiped out that specific column just as the Ukrainians did, I don't believe they would have managed to massacre an entire army. Just because the Russians miscalculated their strategy back then doesn't mean they would approach a potential conflict with Poland in the same way, nor does it guarantee they would face defeat.

The sheer scale of weaponry and logistical support being funneled into Ukraine is almost unfathomable; quite frankly, no other military on the planet possesses that level of overwhelming power except for the United States. Neither Poland nor Ukraine can match that capacity.

And that is to say nothing of the intelligence gathering—the satellite imagery and high-level intel that plays such a decisive, critical role on the modern battlefield.

So, they miscalculated because they have competent military strategists who would handle a war with Poland better? 🙄

Poland's actually been in NATO since '99.

The reality is that Americans simply can't afford to lose this fight. They already took enough of a hit in Afghanistan, and they know China is watching every single move very closely because of the whole situation with Taiwan.

So, the administration in Washington is incredibly driven to see Ukraine succeed, and honestly, the Ukrainians have plenty of reasons to want a win themselves. You also can't overlook the UK; they’re always looking to maintain that "balance of power," so they’re just as motivated to see Russia lose—which doesn't necessarily mean a total Ukrainian victory, but more about weakening Russia significantly.

Putin is trying to weaponize energy, aiming to pressure the European Union into softening sanctions and pulling back support for Ukraine. But if you ask me, he's barking up the wrong tree. About 90% of the military aid is coming from the UK and the USA, both of which don't rely on Russia for their energy needs. They aren't going to sweat the complaints of the Germans, who are really the main players in the EU, though France is there too—and frankly, they're in a much better spot energetically than Germany is.

On paper, Putin’s mobilization looks like an escalation, but it feels like he's just muddying the waters. In the short term, those conscripts won't provide much of a boost. It seems like his goal is just to hold out until winter and solidify positions. In my view, he's trying to set up a negotiating position where he might trade a withdrawal from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia just to grab the whole Donbas.

The real question is how the US will react. If they decide that focusing on Europe isn't worth the cost anymore—especially with China rising and Russia pivoting toward Beijing—they might pull the plug on Ukraine and force everyone to sit down at the bargaining table.

That would be a moderately optimistic outcome. The absolute best-case scenario would be a revolution in Russia that actually topples Putin and his regime, but that feels like a long shot. The kleptocracy Putin built is tight; you've got a massive web of oligarchs and security elites who all depend entirely on him to stay in power.

What seems most realistic to me is a stalemate by winter, followed by the conflict dragging on through the spring and likely throughout next year, and probably longer, all without anyone crossing the line into using nuclear weapons.