Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Kazakhstan shows no intention of handing over individuals fleeing mobilization to Russia,

Such an action would only be feasible if they were placed on an international wanted list. This was the stance delivered by the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kazakhstan, Marat Akhmetzhanov.

“We maintain contractual agreements with Russia regarding mutual legal assistance, prisoner exchanges, and the extradition of criminals. The fundamental principle here—shared by both our nation and Russia—is that the act must constitute a punishable offense. Furthermore, if... someone is actually placed on a wanted list, we will identify them and proceed with extradition to Russia in due course,” Akhmetzhanov stated.
"If the requests involve military registration or avoiding conscription, there is simply no legal basis for extradition," Akhmetzhanov added.

Since September 21, roughly 100,000 Russians have crossed the border into Kazakhstan.

Earlier, Kazakhstan made it clear that it does not recognize the "referendums" held in eastern Ukraine.

https://theins.ru/news/255463

“The official word is there won’t be any training before we're sent into the combat zone”

Human rights activists from the First Department are reporting that mobilized personnel are being deployed to the front lines without any prior preparation or medical screenings, according to their sources.
One of those mobilized individuals shared an emotional video, stating that his regiment is scheduled to be deployed to Kherson within a matter of days:

“Hey everyone, this is the 1st Tank Regiment checking in. We’ve been officially told there will be no prep work before we head into the combat zone. Our regimental commander confirmed this is the situation. We have to move out to Kherson on September 29th. So... just think about it, decide for yourselves what you want to do with your future. There’s no target practice, no theoretical training—nothing at all,” he said.

https://theins.ru/news/255466

placidsurfer13 said:I mean, look, I don't know if everyone agrees with me here—and maybe I'm totally off base—but the whole idea that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was just some completely irrational, senseless outburst? I don't think it's quite that simple...

I mean, I guess you could say he’s being rational if you look at it from a certain angle—like, Russia sees itself as this major regional power, maybe even something that’s leaning toward becoming a global military heavyweight—so they want to carve out this sort of "buffer zone" between themselves and NATO... and that buffer zone would basically end up being, more or less, the territory of Ukraine.

I mean, I guess it’s pretty obvious to everyone at this point that the West is basically poking the bear—like, they're actively provoking Russia by having NATO practically surround almost all of their borders, or at least getting incredibly close to them... and then, supposedly, they have no intention of sitting down at the table for any kind of negotiations with Russia regarding all of this. It just seems like a recipe for disaster, honestly.

So, here’s the thing—there's another layer to this whole mess. Russia's execution of this military action—or let's call it what it actually is, an invasion of Ukraine—has been incredibly clunky. From a purely tactical standpoint, Russia has basically turned out to be a paper tiger—at least when you're looking at their conventional hardware. It’s like, they just aren't capable of seizing large swaths of Ukraine and actually maintaining control over them... which really makes you wonder. I mean, was Putin and his entire inner circle fully aware of these massive shortcomings before they ever decided to launch this aggression against Ukraine? I guess we might never know for sure, but it's a huge question mark.

All things considered, I honestly feel like this whole Russian aggression thing is going to end up being absolutely devastating for Russia—both on the battlefield and when it comes to their economy... I mean, looking at the big picture, it probably would have been way better for them if they had just played ball and tried some actual diplomacy with the West instead of all this.

Geography is everything here.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Ministry of Internal Affairs - roughly 830,000
Russian National Guard - 450,000
Bureau of Prisons - about 300,000
FBI - approximately 300,000
Federal Intelligence Service - around 50,000
Department of Justice - about 35,000
Federal Investigation Commission - nearly 20,000
U.S. Marshals Service - about 60,000

When you look at the sheer scale of the violence apparatus in Russia—those so-called siloviki—we're talking about over two million military personnel currently on the books.
Seriously, what the hell does Putin need 300,000 ill-equipped reservists with rusty Kalashnikovs for? 🤷
And just to be clear, I’m not even the one asking this; it was Ramzanov's question originally! 😂

🤣. And here I am worrying about Kadyrov—back when the fighting was happening in Mariupol, he was offering money for Prokopenko, and now suddenly Slobodan Prokopenko is free? How does that work? Plus, how are the Russians handling the fact that they let "Nazi" Azov fighters go? Honestly, I think this is just classic Putin tactics—release the Azov guys along with their commanders as a trade for Medvedchuk, then announce a mobilization just to throw some dust in his people's eyes. 🤣 😁.

Wealthy Russians are scrambling to flee via private jets

Demand for private jet seating has spiked following the announcement of a "partial" mobilization. According to The Guardian, wealthy Russians are attempting to exit the country before borders potentially tighten.

To break down the numbers, individuals are paying between $21,000 and $26,000 for a single seat on a private flight. Meanwhile, renting an eight-seater aircraft is running anywhere from $55,000 to $75,000—prices that are several times higher than the standard rates.

Most travelers are targeting destinations like Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, where visa-free entry remains an option for them.
Evgeny Bikov, director of your command, described the current state of affairs as "absolutely insane," noting that daily requests have surged from a mere 50 to five thousand.
The company is struggling to secure enough capacity, he noted, despite pivoting toward larger aircraft. Eduard Simonov, head of FlightWay, also highlighted this massive fiftyfold increase in demand.
One employee from a capital city concierge service mentioned that while they used to spend their time calling restaurants near the Patriarchal Fishery to snag tables for clients, they are now constantly scouring flight aggregators just to find a single remaining seat on a plane headed to Yerevan.

https://www.agents.media/bogatye-rossiyane/

How much can you actually make off Russians trying to flee the country?

One of the most frequent posts seen on Telegram channels for those crossing the borders of Georgia and Kazakhstan involves selling seats in a car. You see these advertisements most often in places where crossing on foot is practically impossible.
From the satellite regions, drivers typically charge an average of 20,000 to 25,000 rubles per passenger. Then there are the ones willing to take someone for anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 rubles.
The price fluctuates depending entirely on how close the vehicle can get to the checkpoint.

In the queues, people also offer to sell scooters or bicycles.
On average, prices range from 10,000 to 50,000 rubles. You’ll even find messages where authors offer coordinates for a bicycle hidden about four kilometers from the border for a symbolic 4,000 rubles.
According to eyewitnesses, at the Kazakhstan border, you might be asked to pay 200,000 rubles—for that amount, they claim the car "will be driven right up to the checkpoint with its lights flashing." However, sources speaking to the Agency who were stationed at the Ozink border crossing haven't seen anything of the sort.
Another common way to turn a profit here is when locals drive those looking to leave Russia through fields by road. For a fee of 30,000 to 100,000 rubles, a car will drop you off at a spot roughly two kilometers from the checkpoint.

Another option is going on foot and paying truck owners for towing services: for 70,000 rubles, they will transport a vehicle across the border directly into Kazakhstan.
There are also offers in various chats to sell airline tickets to people fleeing Russia. It isn't entirely clear if all these tickets can actually be used; reissuing a ticket to another person, for instance, is impossible with Delta Air Lines.
Tickets for Osh or Istanbul via foreign airlines for this coming weekend, September 26th and 27th, were being sold for 80,000 and 150,000 rubles respectively.

https://www.agents.media/kak-zarabat...na-rossiyanah/

Mass Mobilization Taking Place at Russian Factories

Over the weekend, a list surfaced on Facebook containing the names of employees from the Vostochny Kirovsky mine, part of the Apatit JSC branch (under the PhosAgro umbrella), who were slated to receive legal summons from management. There are 106 names on this specific list. An employee of the company, along with someone from a partner firm, confirmed to the Agency through mutual contacts that these are indeed actual employees of the mine. At the same time, one worker claims that even more summons have been handed out—somewhere around 160 in total. He noted, “They’re handing them out right there on the spot, about 20 per workshop, and there are quite a few drivers among those being called up.” According to two sources speaking to the Agency, the mine employs about 600 people in total. Management reportedly told staff that they aren't allowed to summon more than 30 percent of the workforce from any single company.

At the Kuznetsk ferroalloy plant in Novokuznetsk, 102 legal summons were issued, according to the ex-wife of one of the workers. Based on the website for the Russian Miners Union and Metallurgists, the company employs roughly 2,500 people.
According to sources within the Agency, everyone on that list is expected to be sent to Omsk for training this coming Monday. This woman's current husband was also caught up in this; he works at the Berezovsky electromechanical plant.

Another source from the Kemerovo Oblast told the Agency that about 80 summons were served at the mine where her husband works. That facility employs about 1,500 people in total. Her husband was supposed to report to the military office with his gear at 6:00 AM on Monday, but he received a call on Sunday saying circumstances had changed and asking him to come the following day instead. Other men at the mine who had already received their initial notices are facing the exact same situation.

According to reports circulating on social media, mobilization efforts are also hitting employees at KamAZ, the Carbonated Concrete Factory in Naberezhnye Chelny, the Molot machine factory in Vyatskiye Polyany (Kirov region), the Topkinsky cement plant (Kemerovo region), the Chelyabinsk electrometallurgical plant, and the BauTeks factory in the city.

https://www.agents.media/zabirayut-v-armiyu/

silentnomad7 said:Complete economic isolation is basically like having a thousand nukes, and honestly, that's exactly what happens if even a single one is used. And we'll be feeling the fallout for at least the next 50 years...

But wait, are we actually dealing with total economic isolation right now?

I mean, it feels like they're just playing games—one day they're trading with those bad guys in Russia, the next they aren't, then some countries are in while others are out... it's all over the place.

You can really see the hypocrisy of the West coming through in moves like this—it’s pretty obvious if you look closely. Either they should just go all in and hit Russia with complete, total isolation right now, or they should probably stop making themselves look so ridiculous by pretending this half-hearted isolation is actually working...

Doma184 said:It was mined back in April—at least, that’s what the Ukrainians claimed when they were trying to cut off the Russians near Izium.

Attacking the forest is the only move that makes sense if you want to clear out the entire eastern side of the Oskil. They clearly can't cross the river south of Kupiansk, and there's just a lake further down.

Where to after the forest? Likely Svatove.

They need to be careful. Even if there's room to push north, they have to secure those eastern flanks. I honestly have no clue what the Russians have stationed over there, and it isn't worth risking a situation where our forces get pinned against the river with the Russians holding the other three sides.
That's why Lyman and the surrounding towns are such a critical piece of this.

hollowdriver13 said:Geography is everything here.

Look, you little pro-Russian fanboy, maps and facts don't mean much to you if you can't see the big picture—Russia is "literally" surrounded by NATO.

placidsurfer13 said:But wait, are we actually dealing with total economic isolation right now?

I mean, it feels like they're just playing games—one day they're trading with those bad guys in Russia, the next they aren't, then some countries are in while others are out... it's all over the place.

You can really see the hypocrisy of the West coming through in moves like this—it’s pretty obvious if you look closely. Either they should just go all in and hit Russia with complete, total isolation right now, or they should probably stop making themselves look so ridiculous by pretending this half-hearted isolation is actually working...

Total isolation would mean telling the Chinese, the Indians, the Canadians, and all the other players still doing business with Russia that they either cut ties completely or face sanctions themselves.

Peskov says they’ll be ready to get back to the negotiating table under new terms once the referendum results are out and the territory is officially annexed by Russia 🙏 🙏.
What a circus.
Honestly, the most beautiful word I've heard all year is de-nazification 😁. In Mariupol, they're basically holding street votes 🤣. They’re expecting a 100% turnout for the referendum—let's just gloss over the fact that about 75% of Mariupol's residents before February 24th aren't even living there anymore.
Still, we should probably aim for peace and just give Putin Donbas—hoping that some other administration takes over eventually, one we can actually talk to. Any leadership coming after Putin is likely just going to demand more anyway.
Another bit of news: someone wrote that Mexicans will soon hold their own referendums to join Mexico. I'm just confused—is this happening in every country where Mexicans live, or is it just this thing in the North America?
The Russians are being somewhat "realistic" here—they just want Ukraine.

Amy Parker10 said:Total isolation would mean telling the Chinese, the Indians, the Canadians, and all the other players still doing business with Russia that they either cut ties completely or face sanctions themselves.

That won't work because that effectively kills globalism. And let’s be honest, the West grew powerful and wealthy specifically because of globalism—from the days of colonialism right up to now.
Doing that would be our own undoing. What we have going on right now is already more than enough to dismantle Russia.

placidsurfer13 said:But wait, are we actually dealing with total economic isolation right now?

I mean, it feels like they're just playing games—one day they're trading with those bad guys in Russia, the next they aren't, then some countries are in while others are out... it's all over the place.

You can really see the hypocrisy of the West coming through in moves like this—it’s pretty obvious if you look closely. Either they should just go all in and hit Russia with complete, total isolation right now, or they should probably stop making themselves look so ridiculous by pretending this half-hearted isolation is actually working...

China is going to isolate them anyway.

There won't be any meaningful trade left with them for at least the next 50 years...

Terry Green3 said:That won't work because that effectively kills globalism. And let’s be honest, the West grew powerful and wealthy specifically because of globalism—from the days of colonialism right up to now.
Doing that would be our own undoing. What we have going on right now is already more than enough to dismantle Russia.

Sure, things might get bumpy in the short term, but looking at the long game? It could actually be fantastic! Especially for the less developed parts of the European Union, since we’d likely see factories moving back from China to set up shop right here...

As for China, it would be an absolute disaster for them, considering they'd lose access to those massive, lucrative markets in the European Union and the USA.

Apparently, we’ve already seen the first prisoner of war among the newly mobilized Russians. This individual was deployed to the front lines in the Kharkiv Oblast just two days after being called up, and within five days, he ended up captured while allegedly attempting "to flee abroad."
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/sta...KwFaui6-OohUUA

Kate Cook27 said:Peskov says they’ll be ready to get back to the negotiating table under new terms once the referendum results are out and the territory is officially annexed by Russia 🙏 🙏.
What a circus.
Honestly, the most beautiful word I've heard all year is de-nazification 😁. In Mariupol, they're basically holding street votes 🤣. They’re expecting a 100% turnout for the referendum—let's just gloss over the fact that about 75% of Mariupol's residents before February 24th aren't even living there anymore.
Still, we should probably aim for peace and just give Putin Donbas—hoping that some other administration takes over eventually, one we can actually talk to. Any leadership coming after Putin is likely just going to demand more anyway.
Another bit of news: someone wrote that Mexicans will soon hold their own referendums to join Mexico. I'm just confused—is this happening in every country where Mexicans live, or is it just this thing in the North America?
The Russians are being somewhat "realistic" here—they just want Ukraine.

Oh, really? I bet those Mexicans will join Mexico on foot. It’ll be their choice whether they walk there or get carried in feet first.

silentnomad7 said:Sure, things might get bumpy in the short term, but looking at the long game? It could actually be fantastic! Especially for the less developed parts of the European Union, since we’d likely see factories moving back from China to set up shop right here...

As for China, it would be an absolute disaster for them, considering they'd lose access to those massive, lucrative markets in the European Union and the USA.

It would have been much better for Europe and the rest of the West if things had been handled differently from the start. Instead, the obsession with profit margins pushed manufacturing all the way to the Far East. If we hadn't done that, wouldn't the goods be higher quality? Wouldn't more money stay in Europe, creating more jobs and perhaps even encouraging people to have more children?

Honestly, half of those guys being mobilized are probably just going to surrender...

hollowdriver13 said:Geography is everything here.

Why is Crimea colored green on that map?
You probably need to go back to second grade geography. 🙂