Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

At the end of the day, Russia can't pull that blackmail routine anymore. They just don't have the gas left to sell to keep us in line.

rustywalker82 said:Look, there's definitely a risk of facing penalties, but the real question is how big those penalties actually are since both sides were probably "massaging" the contract terms anyway. On one hand, any fine is peanuts compared to the massive risk of losing more territory to aggression.
Basically, trying to dodge penalties for undelivered gas only makes sense if the damage is manageable—like, I don't know, maybe a billion dollars to fix things. But it doesn't make sense if an explosion causes ten billion in damages (not to mention the endless loss from gas that just sits there unsold forever).
Just being realistic with the math: if both pipelines are gone for good, there is zero logic for the Russians to have basically committed suicide.

It makes no sense for Russia to invade Ukraine just to have this happen.

And I haven't even heard the wild theories yet about how Americans would somehow drop explosives 80 or 90 meters deep into the freezing Baltic Sea. For the people dreaming up scenarios involving drones bought on eBay or AliExpress, you realize those explosions were only 2.1 or 2.2 on the Richter scale, right? How much explosive do you even need for that? Five kilograms?

If I had to place a bet, I’d put my money on the Poles. Once Nord Stream is out of the picture, virtually all the gas flow is going to be routed through Ukraine and Poland. That isn't exactly a convenient setup for the Ukrainians, which makes the Polish position much more strategic. Besides, they were quick enough to start pointing fingers at the Americans, claiming we aren't doing enough to cut off the supply from the Russians. 😬

Linda Collins3 said:True, but hey, they are Americans after all.

Because, you know, Russia and Putin aren't exactly famous for blowing up their own stuff... oh wait, my bad, let's not forget 1999 and those Moscow bombings orchestrated by the FSB to justify the second Chechen War.
And honestly, they don't lie much... okay, maybe a little bit lately in 2022, but otherwise they're pretty reliable, and it’s not like they haven't been poisoning people across the EU and sowing discord for ages.

So, what's the actual endgame for the USA here? What's in it for them?

What does the USA actually gain by breaking apart the unity of the NATO alliance—especially after years of friction and internal bickering finally settled down?
Plus, if the EU and NATO are their strongest and biggest allies, why on earth would they go out of their way to dismantle them now? 🤔

On the flip side, a fractured EU suits Russia way more. A united EU makes Russia look like a tiny player by comparison.
But a broken EU? That makes the RF a massive factor on the continent again, and it's so much easier to manipulate everyone when they're all pulling in different directions.
And looking at the mess with Nord Stream 1, you could argue that since the pipeline is trashed, they have a perfect excuse: "Sorry, we can't deliver." By turning off the taps and ripping up contracts, they dodged being sued in international courts where they'd likely lose; even if they wouldn't pay, their assets worldwide could have been seized to cover it.

As crazy as it sounds to destroy your own assets, for them, there are way more potential upsides compared to the USA, where most moves like this just bring a bunch of downsides.

If there weren't sanctions and if Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 were running smoothly, I'd be much more inclined to believe the USA did this to disable them—even at the cost of souring relations with Europe—just as a way to cut off the funding to the RF.

Daniel Ward87 said:We already know the drill: Americans did it yesterday just so they could pin the sabotage on the Russians. It’s all about messing with those gas lines to the European Union so they stay hooked on the USA, plus it makes it look like the US is pulling the strings behind this whole war.

Honestly, what's the point of the meeting when I can just get the whole story from this PDF? ☕

Still hoping for a more colorful story, like the one boldbison40 put together.

It’s starting. said: Military analyst Ilya Kramnik isn't ruling out the possibility that the US Navy had a hand in this incident. A few days ago, the amphibious assault ships USS Kearsarge and Gunston Hall stopped by a Polish port in Gdansk. To make matters even more interesting, the destroyer Paul Ignatius was also in town right before the explosion hit.

"Deploy the special ops team, prep the gear, grab the equipment, execute the hit, pack up, then ditch everything once the job is done," Kramnik said, laying out how a sabotage mission might actually go down.

Читайте больше на The latest reports out of Washington suggest a major shift in how the administration is handling university oversight. It looks like there’s a growing push from certain factions within the US government to tighten the leash on academic institutions regarding foreign influence and funding sources. It's the same old story, really. We see these massive research grants flowing into Ivy League schools, often tied to interests that don't exactly align with domestic security priorities. Now, the conversation is moving toward actual policy changes. There's talk about more rigorous vetting processes for international partnerships and perhaps even stricter disclosure requirements for researchers receiving outside money. I remember back when I was finishing my degree, nobody even blinked at where the endowment money came from. You just assumed it was some local philanthropist or a corporate donation. Nowadays, everything is viewed through a lens of geopolitical competition. It’s a different world. Whether this actually results in meaningful reform or just becomes another layer of bureaucratic red tape remains to be seen. For now, the tension between academic freedom and national interest is clearly hitting a boiling point in the halls of Congress.

Ship names, crew lists, small boats, specific dates, unloading times—he’ll claim he got all that intel straight from Kaliningrad.

Christian Torres3 said:It makes no sense for Russia to invade Ukraine just to have this happen.

And I haven't even heard the wild theories yet about how Americans would somehow drop explosives 80 or 90 meters deep into the freezing Baltic Sea. For the people dreaming up scenarios involving drones bought on eBay or AliExpress, you realize those explosions were only 2.1 or 2.2 on the Richter scale, right? How much explosive do you even need for that? Five kilograms?

Terry Green3 said:In that scenario, I’m playing the hand where the explosives were planted by the FBI during construction. If this operation was carried out by the Russians now, it’s worse than a drone flying over all of Canada and crashing into the capital of a NATO member. It makes you wonder about their defense readiness.

Just to add some context here. The Americans found the Russian explosives already in place and started poking around them, trying to get a look at the tech and reverse-engineer their methods. Something clearly went sideways, and then we saw explosions hit three out of the four positions.
So what now? The wolf finally caught the sheep.
Maybe the Russians put that there as some kind of failsafe during the pipeline installation, a little ace up their sleeve. Then the Americans showed up, started poking around, and well... here we are.

Terry Green3 said:Still hoping for a more colorful story, like the one boldbison40 put together.

Ship names, crew lists, small boats, specific dates, unloading times—he’ll claim he got all that intel straight from Kaliningrad.

Just to add some context here. The Americans found the Russian explosives already in place and started poking around them, trying to get a look at the tech and reverse-engineer their methods. Something clearly went sideways, and then we saw explosions hit three out of the four positions.
So what now? The wolf finally caught the sheep.
Maybe the Russians put that there as some kind of failsafe during the pipeline installation, a little ace up their sleeve. Then the Americans showed up, started poking around, and well... here we are.

😒
Speedos featuring a bald eagle draped over the Stars and Stripes, with "Property of US Navy SEALs" stitched right onto the inside.

Christian Torres3 said:It makes no sense for Russia to invade Ukraine just to have this happen.

And I haven't even heard the wild theories yet about how Americans would somehow drop explosives 80 or 90 meters deep into the freezing Baltic Sea. For the people dreaming up scenarios involving drones bought on eBay or AliExpress, you realize those explosions were only 2.1 or 2.2 on the Richter scale, right? How much explosive do you even need for that? Five kilograms?

Neither you nor I have any clue exactly how many kilos of explosives it takes to puncture a pipeline. Nobody does until the official investigation wraps up.
Common sense tells me that, say, Russia isn't just going to wake up tomorrow, change their minds, and offer up their territory to whoever wants it instead of occupying Ukraine. So, things can make sense even if the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine seemed totally irrational.

boldbison40 said:If I had to place a bet, I’d put my money on the Poles. Once Nord Stream is out of the picture, virtually all the gas flow is going to be routed through Ukraine and Poland. That isn't exactly a convenient setup for the Ukrainians, which makes the Polish position much more strategic. Besides, they were quick enough to start pointing fingers at the Americans, claiming we aren't doing enough to cut off the supply from the Russians. 😬

I wouldn't bet on that, because there's this weird detail where the attack on Nord Stream was basically telegraphed a week earlier by some supposed explosive threat to the Turkish Stream, which had nothing to do with the Poles (it was either lying Russians or the Ukrainians being blamed).
By the way, it could easily be "convenient"—the Ukrainians are probably already inspecting various shipments of explosives sitting right there in Polish ports.

Just a Russian submarine and that's that.

Susan Collins3 said:It’s a total blowout, honestly—like the old guard from Joža Manolić's era. I mean, they're actually mobilizing guys who were fighting in Afghanistan forty years ago and somehow haven't kicked the bucket yet. No wonder you see mobilized dudes dropping dead from heart attacks left and right.

But seriously, this stuff is pretty sketchy. It looks like Russia is heading toward full-blown mobilization, maybe even over a million people. Sending grandpas, barbers, and other random, incompetent folks to the front line is just going to spike the body count, which I guess will force a response from the Ukrainian side. Then everything could spiral into a total meat grinder, kind of like WWI. Basically, Putin is betting everything the Russian Federation has left on a few weeks of progress, hoping for a big win, while all his sycophants just sit there watching and staying quiet.

Alright, look, all those Twitter feeds showing rusted-out AKs, elderly men being drafted, and crews stumbling around drunk while talking about basic supplies... maybe it isn't like that everywhere. I guess.

But honestly, just the fact that this kind of thing is happening at all proves how much of a farce this whole pompous mobilization effort really is.
If they couldn't even manage to equip the first 300,000 people—mostly guys in their late 20s or early 30s—with decent rifles, uniforms, boots, or even basic medkits... I don't know how they expect to supply the next million.

There will likely be over a million mobilized. Sending grandfathers, barbers, and other incompetent folks to the front line will probably just drive up the casualty counts. That usually leads to escalation, and I suppose Ukraine might eventually have to find some sort of response to that.

A mass of poorly armed and untrained soldiers provides zero benefit on the battlefield.
Mostly, they're just a logistical nightmare.
The Ukrainians won't even have to do much, other than figure out how to handle a massive influx of prisoners.

Daniel Ward87 said:It’s technically possible for them to pull it off. But honestly, I feel like doing that would just sabotage NATO and the European Union itself. That’s why the idea of it being them seems crazy to me. Ever since that whole scandal involving spying on Merkel, it feels like the US is actually pretty careful about how they handle the EU. Unless, of course, this is part of some massive master plan we haven't even dreamed up yet. Still, my money is on the Russians.

Or they're just making it crystal clear who's actually running the show, showing there's zero chance of anyone deviating from the geopolitical path set by the leaders.

Let’s not kid ourselves about how this "alliance" really works: it's just the boss and everyone else following orders. Nobody is going to call out the boss; they'll all just play dumb and point fingers at the Russians instead.
Politicians in Europe are fully aware of the dirty moves Americans make against their European counterparts—how they use economic blackmail or pressure them into selling off European assets to American companies. But they keep it all hidden from the public because they're afraid. Every now and then, a bit of the truth leaks out by mistake.

Why now? Maybe they sensed some political instability brewing behind the scenes in the EU and felt the need to set things straight, or maybe it's just the perfect timing. Doing it sooner would have been premature, but waiting too long might have meant missing the window entirely.

hollowdriver13 said:Nord Stream 2 was basically dead on arrival anyway; it never even really got going. And let's be real, NS1 was heading for the exact same fate once Germany started distancing itself from Russian gas.
Then you've got the maintenance costs for dead pipelines sitting on the owner (Russia). Now that the pipeline is trashed, those costs are gone, and hey, maybe you can even squeeze some cash out of insurance.
Plus, it definitely stirs the pot in the West.

What's the actual endgame for the Americans blowing up an inactive, half-dead pipeline? To have it come out that they did it, just so relations with all of Europe sour again, and to prove to the rest of the world once more that they're the bad guys fueling the conflict?

Gazprom holds a 51% stake in NS1, and if I recall correctly, they own 100% of NS2. However, the construction of NS2 was funded by Wintershall Dea (Germany), Engie (France), OMV (Austria), Shell (UK / Netherlands), and Uniper (Finland)—yet in the end, those companies had to write off several billion dollars in losses. They basically lost it all.

Joshua Myers432 said:Besides, by springtime, the Ukrainians will either be in Moscow or Putin will decide to toss a Sarmat our way, and then we won't have any more problems to worry about. 🙂

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing just blew up during launch.

hollowdriver13 said:Because, you know, Russia and Putin aren't exactly famous for blowing up their own stuff... oh wait, my bad, let's not forget 1999 and those Moscow bombings orchestrated by the FSB to justify the second Chechen War.
And honestly, they don't lie much... okay, maybe a little bit lately in 2022, but otherwise they're pretty reliable, and it’s not like they haven't been poisoning people across the EU and sowing discord for ages.

So, what's the actual endgame for the USA here? What's in it for them?

What does the USA actually gain by breaking apart the unity of the NATO alliance—especially after years of friction and internal bickering finally settled down?
Plus, if the EU and NATO are their strongest and biggest allies, why on earth would they go out of their way to dismantle them now? 🤔

On the flip side, a fractured EU suits Russia way more. A united EU makes Russia look like a tiny player by comparison.
But a broken EU? That makes the RF a massive factor on the continent again, and it's so much easier to manipulate everyone when they're all pulling in different directions.
And looking at the mess with Nord Stream 1, you could argue that since the pipeline is trashed, they have a perfect excuse: "Sorry, we can't deliver." By turning off the taps and ripping up contracts, they dodged being sued in international courts where they'd likely lose; even if they wouldn't pay, their assets worldwide could have been seized to cover it.

As crazy as it sounds to destroy your own assets, for them, there are way more potential upsides compared to the USA, where most moves like this just bring a bunch of downsides.

If there weren't sanctions and if Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 were running smoothly, I'd be much more inclined to believe the USA did this to disable them—even at the cost of souring relations with Europe—just as a way to cut off the funding to the RF.

There isn't any real breaking of NATO unity happening; it's just a message that the games are over and you have to listen to the boss.

I honestly think the Russians are worried about future trials, even though their assets are already frozen. They might even try suing EU nations over Nord Stream 2...

What if the Germans decide they’ve had enough of being told what to do by the "bosses"?

If the Americans pulled this move right now, then honestly, they should stick to their guns.

But if they actually did... man, that would be one hell of a massive blunder—basically just making life harder for themselves.

Karen Doyle72 said:Man, I saw this exact same crap happen back home during the Gulf War era. You had guys fleeing the draft who were basically marked for the front lines immediately, and the ones who actually showed up? They got sent right into the meat grinder.

That isn't accurate. It didn't work like that. If you deserted the American People's Army, you just served out your term in the American military instead, mostly within the first wave of conscripts. Some of those early groups eventually saw action on the ground.

Linda Collins3 said:There isn't any real breaking of NATO unity happening; it's just a message that the games are over and you have to listen to the boss.

I honestly think the Russians are worried about future trials, even though their assets are already frozen. They might even try suing EU nations over Nord Stream 2...

I’m seeing those same old trolls again—you know, the ones who were busy shouting about a Russian invasion long before the war even started while Putin was just massing troops—and now they're back to spreading "positive" vibes out of Moscow.

Then you've got the conspiracy theorists—bless their hearts—throwing around Biden's comments on Nord Stream 2 as if it's some smoking gun. It's honestly such nonsense! If you look past the possibility that those statements were just pure political maneuvering or a total bluff that doesn't match reality, it's clearly just a classic case of the US using its soft power mechanisms.

The whole idea that the US would actually risk its relationship with Europe by carrying out massive physical sabotage is just wild to me—especially right now, when the entire European Union is already making a move to distance itself from Russian gas in the first place.

To me, this looks like Putin simply decided he doesn't need those pipelines anymore. Plus, destroying them gives his trolls the perfect excuse to blame the US, shifting the blame away from Russia when Europe starts feeling the pinch from the lack of Russian gas. It’s basically a warning shot aimed at other critical infrastructure—everything from the internet to Norwegian gas and supplies from North Africa.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That isn't accurate. It didn't work like that. If you deserted the American People's Army, you just served out your term in the American military instead, mostly within the first wave of conscripts. Some of those early groups eventually saw action on the ground.

Look, I bailed, put on a different uniform the very next day, and headed straight for the tanks. A buddy of mine stayed behind—he got his service extended and ended up stuck in El Paso, barely making it out alive. I'm not just talking out of my ass here.

Christian Torres3 said:It makes no sense for Russia to invade Ukraine just to have this happen.

And I haven't even heard the wild theories yet about how Americans would somehow drop explosives 80 or 90 meters deep into the freezing Baltic Sea. For the people dreaming up scenarios involving drones bought on eBay or AliExpress, you realize those explosions were only 2.1 or 2.2 on the Richter scale, right? How much explosive do you even need for that? Five kilograms?

Force of the blast A 2.1 to 2.2 on the Richter scale is roughly equivalent to an explosion of 1,500 to 2,500 kg of TNT.

That’s... well, it's probably about 7 to 10 times more than what your average heavy torpedo puts out.

Even the pipeline itself could probably be torn apart by a simple 10 kg shaped charge placed directly against the pipe.

So, if this was actual targeted sabotage, a relatively small mine would have done the trick.

It seems unlikely that someone just went out and planted such a massive amount of explosives right now.
I guess it's much more likely that this was set up a long time ago—maybe even before the pipeline was even laid down there.

I was half-listening to CNN earlier, and I'm pretty sure I heard some Polish guy thanking the USA for blowing up those pipelines... 😁

rustywalker82 said:Neither you nor I have any clue exactly how many kilos of explosives it takes to puncture a pipeline. Nobody does until the official investigation wraps up.
Common sense tells me that, say, Russia isn't just going to wake up tomorrow, change their minds, and offer up their territory to whoever wants it instead of occupying Ukraine. So, things can make sense even if the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine seemed totally irrational.

I wouldn't bet on that, because there's this weird detail where the attack on Nord Stream was basically telegraphed a week earlier by some supposed explosive threat to the Turkish Stream, which had nothing to do with the Poles (it was either lying Russians or the Ukrainians being blamed).
By the way, it could easily be "convenient"—the Ukrainians are probably already inspecting various shipments of explosives sitting right there in Polish ports.

Your logic is seriously broken. If you actually understand energy output, you can calculate the approximate amount of explosives needed to generate that much force.