Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Russia called an emergency session of the UN Security Council regarding Nord Stream. I’m expecting a pretty entertaining performance from them—lots of finger-pointing about who, when, and why.

hiddeneagle98 said:You’re completely ignoring the rest of my last sentence.

Even if they somehow locked down enough gas for the whole winter across the entire US, who knows?
we'll see about that. those storage facilities aren't even allowed to run empty.

rustywalker82 said:We’re looking at a massive uphill battle here. Honestly, the penalties are going to be a total long shot. First off, the European Union went all in on those sanctions against servicing energy projects tied to Russia, and then they started backtracking on some of them—it's been a mess. On top of that, you've got all these headaches with wire transfers and insurance being basically impossible to navigate right now. Plus, let's be real: most of these gas purchase contracts aren't even permanent, so talking about penalties is a stretch if there isn't even a solid legal foundation to lean on.

Honestly, once you actually see the damage from a leak like this, it’ll be pretty obvious if Russia was behind it. If water gets deep into those pipes and permanently trashes both pipelines, then there's no way it was them. It would be like Russia blowing up their own gas and oil wells just to spite themselves. That doesn't make any sense.
If that’s how the math works out, then Ukraine is basically the only suspect left on the table. I don't see the US being involved here—they weren't even part of the whole mess involving those explosives near the Turkish Stream just last week. At this point, if you're looking for someone to blame, it's either Russia (assuming they aren't lying through their teeth) or it's the Ukrainians.

I don't see any text to work with! Throw some content my way and I'll get to work rewriting it.

If the Russians didn't go through with lifting the Nord Stream restrictions, then why on earth did they shut down the pipeline running through Ukraine? Makes you wonder what the actual endgame is there.

Look, playing games with market prices by having ExxonMobil threaten sanctions against a Ukrainian operator—just because they’re fighting over transit fees that ExxonMobil claims are already settled—is a completely different beast than actually blowing up a pipeline under the Baltic Sea or through Ukraine. It's not even the same league. One is market manipulation; the other is straight-up sabotage. Totally different story.

Ever heard of the word "contract"? You know, where there are specific clauses defining who does what, how, and when? Everything is laid out precisely.

In that case, the only remaining suspect is Ukraine...

Come on, explain to me how Ukrainians would blow up gas pipelines 80-90 meters deep in the ocean when they don't even share a border with them. I'm waiting. Please, enlighten me.

Christian Torres3 said:Ever heard of the word "contract"? You know, where there are specific clauses defining who does what, how, and when? Everything is laid out precisely.

In that case, the only remaining suspect is Ukraine...

Come on, explain to me how Ukrainians would blow up gas pipelines 80-90 meters deep in the ocean when they don't even share a border with them. I'm waiting. Please, enlighten me.

EZ ☕

With drones? Good grief, it’s like we’re living straight out of 1984.
You just slide a drone into a pipe somewhere over the water, or better yet, grab an underwater drone—they cost a bit more, sure, but they're totally accessible.

It’s pretty obvious the Russians blew those pipelines up. They were sending a massive signal to the rest of the world—basically saying, "If we can do this much damage to our own infrastructure, imagine what we're capable of doing to yours." 😉

Terry Green3 said:Russia called an emergency session of the UN Security Council regarding Nord Stream. I’m expecting a pretty entertaining performance from them—lots of finger-pointing about who, when, and why.

We already know the drill: Americans did it yesterday just so they could pin the sabotage on the Russians. It’s all about messing with those gas lines to the European Union so they stay hooked on the USA, plus it makes it look like the US is pulling the strings behind this whole war.

Honestly, what's the point of the meeting when I can just get the whole story from this PDF? ☕

dustyfalcon122 said:With drones? Good grief, it’s like we’re living straight out of 1984.
You just slide a drone into a pipe somewhere over the water, or better yet, grab an underwater drone—they cost a bit more, sure, but they're totally accessible.

It’s not impossible, but we’re talking more about an autonomous submarine than some tiny little drone at that point. (And here we go again, back to the fact that the US had those submarine hunter helicopters and planes patrolling that area back then, just tearing things up left and right.)

Punching through an underwater pipeline isn't exactly a walk in the park. You've got steel walls that are several inches thick, all encased in a concrete sleeve or sarcophagus that averages about 8 inches deep. Because of that, sections of undersea gas or oil pipelines usually weigh dozens of tons. To actually breach something like that, you'd need a seriously massive amount of explosives.

What if they just sent some remote-controlled little car packed with TNT and blew the whole thing up from the inside? 🤔

Since we’re already out here throwing around wild theories without having a single shred of actual proof, 😬

Carol Johnson21 said:If you're referring to that Solovjev parody video, it struck me as unbelievable immediately. It’s highly unlikely they would be that blatant about dodging mobilization.

And I agree—there's no point in mocking them like this. If we go down that road, their actual absurdities get lost in the noise. We have plenty of real nonsense to deal with, and those should be carefully attributed rather than turning them into "confused Nazis," much like what happened with the Italians during WWII.

It’s not even a parody, though. When you listen to the original Russian, they’re basically just venting about how incompetent the guys handling the draft notices are. Like, Solovyov claims there are 1.35 million soldiers in the Russian Federation, and Simonyan is saying there are over 5 million people with actual firearm experience ready to go, yet they're out here mobilizing everyone under the sun—old folks, sick people, guys with zero training, musicians, poets, doctors, even the homeless. They're literally saying a bureaucrat like that needs to be grabbed by the ear and dragged straight to the front lines. Mostly, they're just complaining about how total incompetence from these officials is absolutely wrecking morale. And honestly? The English translation is just garbage... which, I guess, makes it just as incompetent as the draft officials themselves.

It’s pretty interesting watching everyone mock the Russian military hardware for the last six months, only for them to suddenly roll out these high-tech drones capable of hitting gas pipelines a hundred meters underwater. 🤦

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s pretty interesting watching everyone mock the Russian military hardware for the last six months, only for them to suddenly roll out these high-tech drones capable of hitting gas pipelines a hundred meters underwater. 🤦

What’s so "fascinating" or weird about that? You seriously didn't see a reason to mock the Russian military and their so-called "Special Military Operation" over the last six months? That doesn't mean they can't blow up a damn pipe in shallow water—we're talking depth where people compete in free diving. A small terrorist cell could pull that off, let alone a terrorist state like the Russian Federation.

Daniel Ward87 said:We already know the drill: Americans did it yesterday just so they could pin the sabotage on the Russians. It’s all about messing with those gas lines to the European Union so they stay hooked on the USA, plus it makes it look like the US is pulling the strings behind this whole war.

Honestly, what's the point of the meeting when I can just get the whole story from this PDF? ☕

True, but hey, they are Americans after all.

Linda Collins3 said:True, but hey, they are Americans after all.

It’s technically possible for them to pull it off. But honestly, I feel like doing that would just sabotage NATO and the European Union itself. That’s why the idea of it being them seems crazy to me. Ever since that whole scandal involving spying on Merkel, it feels like the US is actually pretty careful about how they handle the EU. Unless, of course, this is part of some massive master plan we haven't even dreamed up yet. Still, my money is on the Russians.

Terry Green3 said:It’s the same story for Los Angeles County. While places like San Francisco or Columbus deal with companies going under and people still waiting on gas delivery solutions because SoCalGas hasn't even leased the necessary capacity. I don't understand why there's such a drive to exaggerate everything here, as if anyone posting on this forum who isn't pushing some idealized narrative is somehow undermining Ukrainians in their fight on the front lines. We should be able to have a normal discussion here without all the hyperbole.
Fine, we'll shut down the fertilizer plants, but we'll face the consequences of losing domestic production. There's no point in hiding that.

There really isn't any issue for an average American household regarding gas consumption; everything is under control.
The US Government will ensure gas is available at the same price for all households across the country.
I spoke with my provider, a local utility company, this morning. They sent me a contract to sign about a month ago—just like they do every year—but this time it was based on "market rates" instead of a fixed price. I went ahead and signed it because I have no intention of switching heating methods. However, since the Government decided that customers whose providers canceled due to high purchase costs can switch to public supply, my provider plans to do exactly that for all their residential customers. I'm not sure about businesses; I didn't ask. They mentioned they'll be sending out new contracts to everyone within seven days—about 30,000 of them—with a fixed price set by the Government through September 1st, 2023. Basically, they'll continue selling us gas at the rate mandated by the government. Otherwise, the representative I spoke with noted that if things weren't handled this way, prices would spike in November, though they aren't quite sure how much—or perhaps they just don't want to say.

Christian Torres3 said:Ever heard of the word "contract"? You know, where there are specific clauses defining who does what, how, and when? Everything is laid out precisely.

In that case, the only remaining suspect is Ukraine...

Come on, explain to me how Ukrainians would blow up gas pipelines 80-90 meters deep in the ocean when they don't even share a border with them. I'm waiting. Please, enlighten me.

Look, there's definitely a risk of facing penalties, but the real question is how big those penalties actually are since both sides were probably "massaging" the contract terms anyway. On one hand, any fine is peanuts compared to the massive risk of losing more territory to aggression.
Basically, trying to dodge penalties for undelivered gas only makes sense if the damage is manageable—like, I don't know, maybe a billion dollars to fix things. But it doesn't make sense if an explosion causes ten billion in damages (not to mention the endless loss from gas that just sits there unsold forever).
Just being realistic with the math: if both pipelines are gone for good, there is zero logic for the Russians to have basically committed suicide.

Alfredo1 said:Kivsharivka near Kupyansk is settled. Now they'll probably clear out the Oskil riverbank and regroup for some deep push later on.
Maybe the Kupyansk and Dvorchin crossings will link up soon too. Who knows, maybe the Ukrainians just decide to dive straight into enemy territory right after.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdsLsMIX...g&name=900x900
Some guy getting mobilized just realized he’s holding the exact same rifle he carried back in Afghanistan.

It’s a total blowout, honestly—like the old guard from Joža Manolić's era. I mean, they're actually mobilizing guys who were fighting in Afghanistan forty years ago and somehow haven't kicked the bucket yet. No wonder you see mobilized dudes dropping dead from heart attacks left and right.

But seriously, this stuff is pretty sketchy. It looks like Russia is heading toward full-blown mobilization, maybe even over a million people. Sending grandpas, barbers, and other random, incompetent folks to the front line is just going to spike the body count, which I guess will force a response from the Ukrainian side. Then everything could spiral into a total meat grinder, kind of like WWI. Basically, Putin is betting everything the Russian Federation has left on a few weeks of progress, hoping for a big win, while all his sycophants just sit there watching and staying quiet.

Daniel Ward87 said:It’s technically possible for them to pull it off. But honestly, I feel like doing that would just sabotage NATO and the European Union itself. That’s why the idea of it being them seems crazy to me. Ever since that whole scandal involving spying on Merkel, it feels like the US is actually pretty careful about how they handle the EU. Unless, of course, this is part of some massive master plan we haven't even dreamed up yet. Still, my money is on the Russians.

The only other option is that they're working in tandem with the Germans. Otherwise, it just looks like shooting oneself in the foot right when NATO has finally consolidated.

On the flip side, sowing chaos and uncertainty in the media is classic Russian tactics.

We’ll all see what we want to see until actual evidence turns up—if it ever does, and many people will ignore it even if it does. Which is, predictably, a common Russian tool... 🙂

Moderators, all those wild theories about who just blew up the underwater gas pipelines... oops... well, that’s probably a conversation for a different thread.
Excuse me.
On this specific thread, we are here to discuss the war in Ukraine—the crimes, the casualties, the violence, and all the other grim realities currently unfolding.🙂
This isn't the place for conspiracy theories or for people sitting back with a bucket of popcorn, waiting for some mindless entertainment.👎
My apologies. I mean that sincerely.

Daniel Ward87 said:It’s technically possible for them to pull it off. But honestly, I feel like doing that would just sabotage NATO and the European Union itself. That’s why the idea of it being them seems crazy to me. Ever since that whole scandal involving spying on Merkel, it feels like the US is actually pretty careful about how they handle the EU. Unless, of course, this is part of some massive master plan we haven't even dreamed up yet. Still, my money is on the Russians.

Sabotaging critical energy infrastructure like that... there is no way official American policy would ever authorize it.
There isn't a theoretical chance in hell. A decision like that would have to come from the very top of the chain of command; you can't just have some rogue CIA agent deciding to pull something like this on their own.

It’s obviously Putin.

And besides, why assume the mine was planted just now?
It could have been sitting there for eight months.
The Russians—well, the Soviets—were doing things like this back during World War II.