wiredseal7 said:India and especially China hold massive chunks of the global market. Then you’ve got the Belt and Road Initiative—everyone’s going to be pushing for more trade settled in yuan. If the Chinese actually have any sense, they'll make that their top priority.
Russian agriculture relies entirely on American tech to plant their specific grain varieties—stuff you can only get here in the States. I’ve mentioned this before, but farm loan interest rates have already spiked from 12% to over 20%. Honestly, who can even stay afloat under those kinds of conditions?
I'm not exactly in the loop, but isn't planting season starting up around now? Spring is practically knocking on the door—that seed could already be halfway to Russia by now. At least for this season.
The oil industry is also tethered to the tech and chemicals they have to import from the States. BP and Shell pulled out too—ExxonMobil exited Arctic drilling ages ago, so we're left watching how the Russians manage to push forward there.
To what extent?
It’s all about the long game. Honestly, I expected better preparation here—given that the US has been cooking up ways to hit the oil sector for ages now.
The auto industry is pulling out of Russia—just how many tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs are going to vanish from that sector alone? Shipping companies have stopped hauling cargo there, too. Not to mention the ruble cratering, which is going to make it impossible for them to afford even the tiny amount of imports they try to pull from China or elsewhere.
I agree—the auto industry is going to take a massive hit here. It’s mostly about the unemployment spike. Factories are just going to sit there empty because without parts, you've got nothing—and trying to pivot production to different models takes forever. Honestly, the only ones who might pull this off are the Chinese; they're basically pros at pivoting and copying whatever works.
Shipping via sea is turning into a gold mine—honestly, it might actually pay to set up a small, "sanction-dodging" fleet just for this kind of thing. Plus, the railroads won't be sitting around waiting for work either.
What Vladimir Putin has done is a total madness move—he’s crippled Russia to such an extent that they're basically becoming a vassal state to China.
The dream of some great leader restoring Russia to its former glory? It’ll end up being nothing more than a carcass caught in China's teeth.
The initial shock is brutal—honestly, they should have just pulled a disappearing act early on. It would’ve been better for all the foreign investors too; at least then they might have saved their massive stakes instead of watching them go down the drain.
The whole point is clearly to rattle Vladimir Putin as much as possible and stir up some internal chaos. That’s why they were running around coordinating with Japan and Korea—trying to make this "shock therapy" hit harder and catch the Russians off guard. But honestly, the entire plan is a gamble; we could easily end up staring down a Cold War 2.0, just a different flavor of isolationism—at least regarding Russia this time around.
Geopolitically, this is huge—it’s basically a wake-up call for China, signaling that the world is shifting toward financial fragmentation. They need to distance themselves from the dollar and the euro as much as possible. It’s not a matter of if this happens to them, but rather when.
By the way, word is an agreement with Iran might be signed within the next few days:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil...-next-72-hours
The Chinese Yuan accounts for less than 3% of global trade. Just for perspective, the US Dollar and the Euro hold 41% and 33% respectively.
Do people honestly believe everyone is going to start trading in Yuan just to bail out Russia? Please, be serious.
I am not entirely caught up, but isn't the planting season starting somewhere right about now (since spring is almost here)? That seed could already be in Russia, at least for this current season.
This particular planting season will go through without a hitch; the real problems begin in 2023. Do you truly imagine that sanctions will simply be lifted in a month or two? Things will remain exactly like this until they completely withdraw from Ukraine, and even then, you have to add another five or six years on top of that. By then, Russia will essentially be North Korea.
To what extent?
It is more of a long-term effect. I would have expected better preparation for this, given that Americans have been concocting sanctions against the oil sector for quite some time now.
To a 100% extent. Just look at the Russian oil industry. There are no new drilling projects. Why? Because the Americans refuse to provide the necessary technology. Why did Rosneft enter into a deal with ExxonMobil? It is precisely because they require Exxon and their technology to locate and exploit new reserves.
The entire Arctic drilling project depends on Americans. Everything fell apart the moment they pulled out following the annexation of Crimea.
I agree that the automotive sector is one of the biggest hits, particularly regarding unemployment. Factories will end up sitting empty because without parts, there is nothing, and retooling production for different vehicles would take far too long. Currently, the Chinese might be the only ones able to salvage this somehow, as they are masters of adaptation and copying.
The Chinese are not philanthropists, and furthermore, how exactly do they intend to deliver all those goods if every major shipping company has stopped carrying cargo to Russian ports?
Shipping by sea is becoming a lucrative business, and it might even pay off to establish a smaller, "sanction-busting" shipping fleet specifically for this purpose. Plus, the railroads will certainly have work to do.
Who is going to establish it? Where will the ships come from?
