Sanctions on Russia

Joshua Myers432 said:You were the one who kicked things off by throwing insults about the East, and let me be clear: I consider terms like "Russophile" or "Putinophile" to be insults as well.

Europe’s entire stability hinges on Russian gas, and that is the direct result of corrupt bureaucrats in Brussels, led by none other than Merkel. If you honestly believe we can just snap our fingers and end this dependency within two winters—or if you think a massive 300% price hike won't absolutely wreck the European economy—then you've clearly lost your grip on reality.

Alright, let's drop the stuff that could be interpreted as personal attacks.
Yes, believing the Russians was a massive mistake, but that isn't primarily an issue of corruption; it's an issue of flat-out denying reality.

Natural gas prices aren't going to stay inflated by 300% forever. Most of this is just short-term speculation that should stabilize relatively quickly since there is actually enough supply out there.

Putler has been quietly pushing his propaganda, trying to manufacture panic by claiming shortages are imminent, but the West saw right through him and fell for the game. In Germany, they took his subtle psychological warfare and blew it way out of proportion. Now, they’re going to end up looking like they actually "defeated" him, simply because the supply will eventually normalize while the public is desperate to ditch Russian gas at any cost just to feel secure.
Best regards,

Bryan Booth82 said:Alright, let's drop the stuff that could be interpreted as personal attacks.
Yes, believing the Russians was a massive mistake, but that isn't primarily an issue of corruption; it's an issue of flat-out denying reality.

Natural gas prices aren't going to stay inflated by 300% forever. Most of this is just short-term speculation that should stabilize relatively quickly since there is actually enough supply out there.

Putler has been quietly pushing his propaganda, trying to manufacture panic by claiming shortages are imminent, but the West saw right through him and fell for the game. In Germany, they took his subtle psychological warfare and blew it way out of proportion. Now, they’re going to end up looking like they actually "defeated" him, simply because the supply will eventually normalize while the public is desperate to ditch Russian gas at any cost just to feel secure.
Best regards,

That's a fair point. Speculators are definitely cleaning up right now. Sure, prices might stabilize in the long run, but don't expect them to ever get back down to those dirt-cheap rates Putin used to provide to Europe. Every other supply route or alternative method is significantly more expensive. Even a 30% increase is a massive hit to the wallet, and honestly, we can probably kiss the idea of seeing pre-Russian madness pricing goodbye.

Joshua Myers432 said:That's a fair point. Speculators are definitely cleaning up right now. Sure, prices might stabilize in the long run, but don't expect them to ever get back down to those dirt-cheap rates Putin used to provide to Europe. Every other supply route or alternative method is significantly more expensive. Even a 30% increase is a massive hit to the wallet, and honestly, we can probably kiss the idea of seeing pre-Russian madness pricing goodbye.

Just like how Americans don't need interference from Mexico, having options is always better—whether it's picking a good hospital, a college, or a vacation spot. Europe doesn't need Russian gas in quantities that let them hold everyone hostage. Let them buy a little from Russia if they must, just enough to keep some profit flowing there, but that's it.

Joshua Myers432 said:That's a fair point. Speculators are definitely cleaning up right now. Sure, prices might stabilize in the long run, but don't expect them to ever get back down to those dirt-cheap rates Putin used to provide to Europe. Every other supply route or alternative method is significantly more expensive. Even a 30% increase is a massive hit to the wallet, and honestly, we can probably kiss the idea of seeing pre-Russian madness pricing goodbye.

Let's build on that. I agree that Russian gas was incredibly cheap, and we shouldn't expect those prices to ever return. That isn't necessarily a bad thing in principle, but there's a catch: since we won't be importing nearly as much from Russia, we have to start working immediately—starting today—to find replacements for at least 50% of that fossil fuel reliance.
The rising costs will force our hand, driving changes in how we save energy and how we consume it.
Best regards,

denijama said:Anyone who supports the Russian side in this war—no matter how they do it or what their excuse is—is a Putinophile... I don't get why that offends you so much?

Europe doesn't just collapse without Russian gas. That’s total nonsense that keeps getting repeated, even though it’s fundamentally untrue. Sure, some countries in Europe rely heavily on Russian gas, and yeah, certain industries are going to see massive price hikes that ripple through everything, but that’s nothing like what you're claiming.

And look, nobody ever claimed all this wouldn't hit the European economy. But every single politician and those Brussels "bureaucrats"—to use your words—have been talking about the fallout from sanctions. Very clearly, very openly. The part that seems to confuse you, given your mindset, is that the vast majority of people in the EU couldn't care less about the sanctions on Russia. That part just doesn't click for someone as petty and selfish as you, creating this weird little paradox.
Not to mention, most people realize it's way, way more expensive in the long run to ignore Putin and skip the sanctions just to avoid a couple of rough years, rather than just powering through this period and being done with it..

Since you're on such a roll, let me ask you something—what exactly would be the "correct" EU policy toward the Russians that actually makes sense to you? And try to be specific for once, instead of acting like everyone else in your circle who just vomits up vague, empty platitudes when asked. Look, Putin invaded Ukraine and he's out there destroying things and doing whatever he wants... so, what is the "right" policy for the EU? Let's hear it...

I have a friend who claims to be “neutral.” When the invasion started, he was all like, "Poor people, I just hope this ends quickly so there isn't too much bloodshed. I don't care if it's Americans or Russians, I just feel bad for the little guy..."

Once the Ukrainians actually stood up to fight, suddenly he's like, "Well, fine, let them fight for their freedom, it's their choice."

Then the sanctions kicked in, and he starts whining, "Why should I care about Ukraine? What do we have to do with them? Who ever helped us? I only care about my own life and my own bills; I'm watching my buddies lose their businesses because of these sanctions and stuff..."

When I told him that it *does* concern us because we have neighbors like Mexicans to deal with, he goes, "Whatever, who cares about Mexicans? We're in NATO..." It's the same damn NATO he talks trash about, but the second our asses need protecting, suddenly it's great.

His whole stance is that we should have stayed neutral, minded our own business, played nice with everyone, and the Russians wouldn't have done anything to us... completely ignoring how much the Russians love being coddled. If we had given in to them regarding moving NATO back to its old borders, we wouldn't even be in NATO anymore... and then we'd be right back to dealing with problems involving Mexico... but hey, this war "isn't our problem," right? On top of all that, he's convinced the Russians won't push any further, that they won't look for anything beyond Ukraine and so on...

But here's what I want to know, and I'm asking everyone who thinks like this: who is going to guarantee anything? What kind of guarantee do we have that Putin will just stop in Ukraine? What about the Baltics? Or Moldova? Who guarantees that if we give in, we won't just end up with a brand new problem or a war with Mexico? Is this internet forum crew going to guarantee our security? Because if it's up to them, NATO and America aren't doing it.

All this chaos will eventually settle, and Russian gas will flow through those pipelines back into Europe once again. The price? That’ll be whatever two powers decide it should be, but it’ll likely remain the cheapest option on the market. We just don't know the timeline. It could happen in three months, or we might be waiting thirty years.

Nancy Gomez26 said:All this chaos will eventually settle, and Russian gas will flow through those pipelines back into Europe once again. The price? That’ll be whatever two powers decide it should be, but it’ll likely remain the cheapest option on the market. We just don't know the timeline. It could happen in three months, or we might be waiting thirty years.

Russian gas isn't even going to stop flowing entirely, though it’s almost certain we won't see the same massive volumes we had before the aggression began.
Beyond the fact that Russian gas used to be the cheapest option, some folks in Europe actually predicted back in 2015 that this exact scenario could play out—that we might find ourselves at the mercy of Russian blackmail. Yet, they somehow managed to dismiss that risk entirely, reducing the probability to zero percent.

The wake-up call has finally arrived, even for the nations that were caught sleeping deeply, such as the biggest consumer of Russian gas... Germany.

To think that they could ever rely on Russian gas for 50% of their needs again is nothing short of delusional.
Whether Russian gas imports drop to zero or hover around 20% doesn't actually change the big picture; the obvious goal for the next 1.5 to 2 years is clear enough.

Best regards,

Just a few days ago, the Italian government inked new energy deals with Algeria, and yet here we are, watching the Russians pivot their rhetoric after yesterday’s threats to shut off the valves entirely.

As Italy scrambles to secure alternative gas supplies, Gazprom has suddenly come calling with promises of increased deliveries.

Putin, the master strategist, isn't he?

You just can't trust a Russ. I assume even the Italians have figured that out by now..

Don't forget about our domestic energy assets—we've already seen several new gas wells opened up in the Midwest this year.

Plus, ExxonMobil is gearing up to start construction on eight new gas platforms out in the Adriatic Sea.
https://hr.n1info.com/biznis/ina-ula...ernom-jadranu/

Bryan Booth82 said:Russian gas isn't even going to stop flowing entirely, though it’s almost certain we won't see the same massive volumes we had before the aggression began.
Beyond the fact that Russian gas used to be the cheapest option, some folks in Europe actually predicted back in 2015 that this exact scenario could play out—that we might find ourselves at the mercy of Russian blackmail. Yet, they somehow managed to dismiss that risk entirely, reducing the probability to zero percent.

The wake-up call has finally arrived, even for the nations that were caught sleeping deeply, such as the biggest consumer of Russian gas... Germany.

To think that they could ever rely on Russian gas for 50% of their needs again is nothing short of delusional.
Whether Russian gas imports drop to zero or hover around 20% doesn't actually change the big picture; the obvious goal for the next 1.5 to 2 years is clear enough.

Best regards,

Diversifying suppliers is, obviously, essential. It is a lesson some ignored, and now they are paying the price, though they likely won't make that mistake twice. It is a positive step that alternative routes are being developed (likely involving the entire European Union gas grid) alongside other sources. In the long run, this should lead to lower prices and increased supply security; it may even trigger the development of new deposits if prices remain high enough to justify exploration. In an ideal scenario, no single supplier should account for more than 30 percent of total requirements—ideally, that share should be even smaller.
Ultimately, attempting to conduct foreign policy by leveraging gas supplies against the Russians has backfired spectacularly. That is what happens when you run a business based on personal preferences rather than pragmatism.

Anthony Hill5 said:Just a few days ago, the Italian government inked new energy deals with Algeria, and yet here we are, watching the Russians pivot their rhetoric after yesterday’s threats to shut off the valves entirely.

As Italy scrambles to secure alternative gas supplies, Gazprom has suddenly come calling with promises of increased deliveries.

Putin, the master strategist, isn't he?

One has to wonder if this promise from Gazprom bears any direct correlation to the recent instability within the Italian government.

Jacob Kern2 said:One has to wonder if this promise from Gazprom bears any direct correlation to the recent instability within the Italian government.

Even if there is a connection, the next administration will likely be led by either Draghi again or, much more probably, some group of Italian politicians who are aggressively anti-Russian.

There it is. Back when I said those things, people labeled me a Russophile or a Putin supporter. 🙏

The idea that we can't survive without Russian gas is pure hyperbole. We don't need them; there are plenty of other suppliers out there.

Honestly, who am I even arguing with here? It's just a massive waste of my time. 🤦

Joshua Myers432 said:There it is. Back when I said those things, people labeled me a Russophile or a Putin supporter. 🙏

The idea that we can't survive without Russian gas is pure hyperbole. We don't need them; there are plenty of other suppliers out there.

Honestly, who am I even arguing with here? It's just a massive waste of my time. 🤦

Answer the question first before you start lecturing me on how things work.
Did gas prices skyrocket right before the invasion and the sanctions hit, or was it after?
Just give me an answer.☕

gentlestag15 said:Answer the question first before you start lecturing me on how things work.
Did gas prices skyrocket right before the invasion and the sanctions hit, or was it after?
Just give me an answer.☕

I assume you know how to use Google, so why don't you tell me what the price was on February 24th versus what it is today? 🙄

There are other suppliers out there. Don't lose sleep over it.

Joshua Myers432 said:I assume you know how to use Google, so why don't you tell me what the price was on February 24th versus what it is today? 🙄

There are other suppliers out there. Don't lose sleep over it.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Back at the end of 2021, prices were actually higher than they are right now. 😒

Personally, I'm not shaking at all. You're the only one acting all worked up about gas shortages on this thread—total doom-and-gloomer.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Diversifying suppliers is, obviously, essential. It is a lesson some ignored, and now they are paying the price, though they likely won't make that mistake twice. It is a positive step that alternative routes are being developed (likely involving the entire European Union gas grid) alongside other sources. In the long run, this should lead to lower prices and increased supply security; it may even trigger the development of new deposits if prices remain high enough to justify exploration. In an ideal scenario, no single supplier should account for more than 30 percent of total requirements—ideally, that share should be even smaller.
Ultimately, attempting to conduct foreign policy by leveraging gas supplies against the Russians has backfired spectacularly. That is what happens when you run a business based on personal preferences rather than pragmatism.

Wrong again. Shale oil only started being pumped once prices hit a certain profitable level. Not sure what that number was. Too lazy to check online. During COVID, barrel prices tanked and shale production stalled right along with them. Restarting that whole operation takes time and cash, which is a massive business risk. If oil prices crash again, shale production vanishes. Then you have to ask: will the investment ever be recovered?
Assuming whether something "pays off" is a dangerous game. Say a company counts on a price of 100 units per unit produced, and at that price, the investment pays itself back in five years. So, the company takes out a loan and builds the infrastructure based on that five-year window. But then the price drops to 70... or 50. Suddenly, that payback period isn't five years anymore; it skyrockets because the company has to take out more loans just to cover losses. This is exactly what OPEC nations face when they ask to increase production capacity. If I were in charge of those countries, I'd tell them: fine, you can produce more, but you'll be paying me 110 units for the next ten years. ☕
Any manager who signs off on a deal like that would be lucky to land anything more than an entry-level laborer job for their next gig. ☕

At a market price of $50 a barrel, pulling oil from current wells stays profitable enough. But at those low rates? Nobody’s touching new exploration—it just doesn't make financial sense to sink that kind of cash into finding new sites.

gentlestag15 said:https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Back at the end of 2021, prices were actually higher than they are right now. 😒

Personally, I'm not shaking at all. You're the only one acting all worked up about gas shortages on this thread—total doom-and-gloomer.

The team seems to have slept through the last two years. Clearly bears. ☕

Prices spiked because we switched from pipelines to shipping gas to LNG terminals, and those ships account for a massive chunk of consumption.☕
As far as I know, container shipping from China alone jumped 4x, making it pointless for some companies to even bother importing from China anymore. Also, alongside that table, he should’ve included a graph showing gas consumption during the lockdowns versus after. Producers likely started shutting down wells, and reopening them isn't cheap—nor is it easy.☕
Think about how many times people went to fill their propane tanks before the lockdowns compared to during them.