Sanctions on Russia

Nathan Evans78 said:They’re working, sure, but in a very limited capacity. I don't think the people who drafted these sanctions ever imagined this whole situation would drag on for this long.
And while we're talking about "proof," let's look at the reality on the ground: they can still pull off enough low-tech production to keep their war machine chugging along. I remember just six months ago, everyone was predicting their factories would be sitting empty because they couldn't produce even a simple shell without Western inputs. Yet, here we are, watching them launch over a hundred high-tech missiles every few weeks—missiles that cost millions of dollars apiece.

Sanctions hit Mexico, but it didn't stop the war. It was the regular citizens who ended up paying the price. The goal is really just to slow things down and make life as difficult as possible—maybe hoping they'll pull back or scale down the fighting in the end. I doubt the Russians expected this level of blockade during their preparations, though they did move their gold out a long time ago, just like Mexico did.

Those 100+ high-tech missiles? In the beginning, they were leaning heavily on Kalibr and Iskander, but now they're using "low-cost" drones much more often by comparison. My take is that the big missiles are expensive and a pain to manufacture, so they probably save those for special occasions or specific defensive and counter-offensive moves.

When budget revenues drop, you try to fix it with a rebalance. Everyone has to tighten their belts; everyone feels the squeeze. The upper classes feel it the least, of course. Over time, the debt starts piling up. These numbers look pretty grim for the long haul. The real trouble starts when the "milking the cow" cycle breaks and the cow starts pushing back.

The U.S. is finally plugging those sanction loopholes, like all that stuff being shipped through Turkey and the United Arab Emirates

A high-ranking U.S. Treasury official touched down in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) this Monday to give that massive regional business hub a serious heads-up—basically telling them that helping Moscow dodge sanctions is going to come with some real consequences.

The Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian E. Nelson, sat down with top officials from various UAE ministries to talk about "rooting out evasion of US sanctions, particularly on Russia and Iran," while also making it very clear that the U.S. is fully committed to taking further action against anyone trying to bypass or help facilitate the evasion of these sanctions, based on an official statement.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/03/m...ntl/index.html

ISTANBUL, February 4 (Reuters) - The United States warned Turkey in recent days about the export to Russia of chemicals, microchips and other products that can be used in Moscow's war effort in Ukraine, noting that they might even step in to penalize Turkish companies or banks that aren't playing by the rules regarding sanctions.

Brian Nelson, who is the top sanctions official over at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, actually went to meet with Turkish government and private sector officials on Thursday and Friday to push for much tighter cooperation when it comes to stopping the flow of these kinds of goods.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-war...ys-2023-02-04/

Nathan Evans78 said:They’re working, sure, but in a very limited capacity. I don't think the people who drafted these sanctions ever imagined this whole situation would drag on for this long.
And while we're talking about "proof," let's look at the reality on the ground: they can still pull off enough low-tech production to keep their war machine chugging along. I remember just six months ago, everyone was predicting their factories would be sitting empty because they couldn't produce even a simple shell without Western inputs. Yet, here we are, watching them launch over a hundred high-tech missiles every few weeks—missiles that cost millions of dollars apiece.

Are you referring to those surface-to-air missiles, specifically the S-300 systems they deploy against civilian targets, or perhaps the anti-ship missiles like the Kh-22 that are being utilized for that very same purpose?

Add in the Iskanders and the Šehidas, and you’ll see Kalibr missiles being tossed around in almost every single strike. Half of them probably don't even reach their targets due to technical failures, let alone the ones shot down or those that simply miss, which suggests that sanctions are actually starting to bite.

Russia is running bone-dry on electronic components. That’s why they can't build missiles and have resorted to looting TVs and appliances across Ukraine like amateurs. 🤣

Ever stop to wonder where almost all this tech actually originates? 😁

Take Chinese manufacturers, for example:
https://www.ibisworld.com/china/mark...ring-industry/

Or look at the massive Chinese distributors:
https://www.rantle.com/
https://www.kynix.com/
https://www.lcsc.com/

You can even buy it by the pound on sites like Alibaba:
https://www.alibaba.com/countrysearc...omponents.html

It’s pretty simple—the more advanced the electronics, the better the shot. While HIMARS can nail a target within 3-4 meters, high-precision Russian missiles usually land within 30-40 meters—and the older versions? They’re lucky if they hit within 300-400 meters...

Noah Diaz said:Russia is running bone-dry on electronic components. That’s why they can't build missiles and have resorted to looting TVs and appliances across Ukraine like amateurs. 🤣

Ever stop to wonder where almost all this tech actually originates? 😁

Take Chinese manufacturers, for example:
https://www.ibisworld.com/china/mark...ring-industry/

Or look at the massive Chinese distributors:
https://www.rantle.com/
https://www.kynix.com/
https://www.lcsc.com/

You can even buy it by the pound on sites like Alibaba:
https://www.alibaba.com/countrysearc...omponents.html

China has been the world's #1 electronics factory for decades.
Sure, they make the iPhones, the laptops... tons of Western companies rely on China being the top manufacturer.
But those high-end chips? Those come from Taiwan.

Noah Diaz said:Russia is running bone-dry on electronic components. That’s why they can't build missiles and have resorted to looting TVs and appliances across Ukraine like amateurs. 🤣

Ever stop to wonder where almost all this tech actually originates? 😁

Take Chinese manufacturers, for example:
https://www.ibisworld.com/china/mark...ring-industry/

Or look at the massive Chinese distributors:
https://www.rantle.com/
https://www.kynix.com/
https://www.lcsc.com/

You can even buy it by the pound on sites like Alibaba:
https://www.alibaba.com/countrysearc...omponents.html

Sanctions are being bypassed regardless. Some Russian commodities—raw materials—will always find a buyer, just like sanctioned goods will always find their way to Russian consumers.

The real issue for the Russians is the math. They’re forced to dump their raw materials at a massive discount while paying insane premiums to acquire anything under sanction.

feralhawk45 said:Sanctions are being bypassed regardless. Some Russian commodities—raw materials—will always find a buyer, just like sanctioned goods will always find their way to Russian consumers.

The real issue for the Russians is the math. They’re forced to dump their raw materials at a massive discount while paying insane premiums to acquire anything under sanction.

And isn't that exactly what sanctions are designed to do? To bleed them dry through those margins.

lp

From what I recall, the whole point of these sanctions was to shake up Putin’s inner circle and rattle his cage.

But honestly? I’m worried we might just end up seeing Prigozhin installed in power, while all those billions of dollars are just tossed down the drain. 🤣

Bryan Booth82 said:And isn't that exactly what sanctions are designed to do? To bleed them dry through those margins.

lp

Exactly. That was my point all along.

feralhawk45 said:Exactly. That was my point all along.

The other day, I’m watching TV and there’s this former big shot from Siemens—a guy who apparently met with Putin three separate times, mind you. Now, Siemens does gas turbines, right? And this guy basically admits that when it comes to the economy, Russia has absolutely nothing to offer besides oil and gas...

It just hits me: are you kidding me? You’re sitting on all that gas, yet you can't even manufacture a decent damn turbine yourselves?🤔
Putin thought he could hold the European Union hostage by threatening to cut off the gas, but now he can't even guarantee the supply himself. What a joke.

Best,

Bryan Booth82 said:The other day, I’m watching TV and there’s this former big shot from Siemens—a guy who apparently met with Putin three separate times, mind you. Now, Siemens does gas turbines, right? And this guy basically admits that when it comes to the economy, Russia has absolutely nothing to offer besides oil and gas...

It just hits me: are you kidding me? You’re sitting on all that gas, yet you can't even manufacture a decent damn turbine yourselves?🤔
Putin thought he could hold the European Union hostage by threatening to cut off the gas, but now he can't even guarantee the supply himself. What a joke.

Best,

Manufacturing a turbine that is reliable, durable, and fuel-efficient isn't some simple feat. In reality, it’s an aircraft jet engine—just repurposed to drive a machine, whether it's a gas compressor, a generator, or propulsion for a vehicle or vessel. Russia might be capable of building them, but it likely doesn't make financial sense for them. Their domestic demand is relatively low; they only need a few units. It is far cheaper and more efficient to simply buy them outright and focus their engineering efforts on things they actually cannot acquire, like military jet engines. Now that they’ve decided to play it smart, they’ll have to feel the sting of the consequences. Perhaps they'll gain some much-needed experience from the fallout.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Manufacturing a turbine that is reliable, durable, and fuel-efficient isn't some simple feat. In reality, it’s an aircraft jet engine—just repurposed to drive a machine, whether it's a gas compressor, a generator, or propulsion for a vehicle or vessel. Russia might be capable of building them, but it likely doesn't make financial sense for them. Their domestic demand is relatively low; they only need a few units. It is far cheaper and more efficient to simply buy them outright and focus their engineering efforts on things they actually cannot acquire, like military jet engines. Now that they’ve decided to play it smart, they’ll have to feel the sting of the consequences. Perhaps they'll gain some much-needed experience from the fallout.

If they managed to put the first man in space, I suppose they can figure out how to manufacture a gas turbine. 🤣

They didn't need it before; now they have no choice. In the long run, the West is actually doing them a favor. Instead of just sitting on their oil and gas reserves without innovating, they're being forced to actually build something useful. Maybe we could take a page out of that book. Instead of just renting out vacation rentals, changing linens, and flipping burgers on a grill, maybe we should try manufacturing something intelligent for a change.

Joshua Myers432 said:If they managed to put the first man in space, I suppose they can figure out how to manufacture a gas turbine. 🤣

They didn't need it before; now they have no choice. In the long run, the West is actually doing them a favor. Instead of just sitting on their oil and gas reserves without innovating, they're being forced to actually build something useful. Maybe we could take a page out of that book. Instead of just renting out vacation rentals, changing linens, and flipping burgers on a grill, maybe we should try manufacturing something intelligent for a change.

I recall back in the eighties, when that first pipeline toward West Germany was being built, there was a massive stir regarding those turbines. Reagan refused to authorize the use of American turbines, so the Russians claimed they would simply install their own—arguing they’d need more units, but that they were perfectly capable of making them. But that was the era of the USSR and its industrial capacity, which has long since evaporated. Many of those factories aren't even within the borders of the Russian Federation anymore. The real question is whether the Russian Federation can actually service or produce these things independently today.

Joshua Myers432 said:If they managed to put the first man in space, I suppose they can figure out how to manufacture a gas turbine. 🤣

They didn't need it before; now they have no choice. In the long run, the West is actually doing them a favor. Instead of just sitting on their oil and gas reserves without innovating, they're being forced to actually build something useful. Maybe we could take a page out of that book. Instead of just renting out vacation rentals, changing linens, and flipping burgers on a grill, maybe we should try manufacturing something intelligent for a change.

I'm holding out for microchips next, since importing them isn't an option anymore. After that? Commercial aircraft.

Nathan Thomas12 said:I'm holding out for microchips next, since importing them isn't an option anymore. After that? Commercial aircraft.

The Chinese will hand everything over just to get Taiwan back.🤣

Joshua Myers432 said:If they managed to put the first man in space, I suppose they can figure out how to manufacture a gas turbine. 🤣

They didn't need it before; now they have no choice. In the long run, the West is actually doing them a favor. Instead of just sitting on their oil and gas reserves without innovating, they're being forced to actually build something useful. Maybe we could take a page out of that book. Instead of just renting out vacation rentals, changing linens, and flipping burgers on a grill, maybe we should try manufacturing something intelligent for a change.

You people have been chanting that same mantra since 2014, yet here we are, still stuck in the exact same spot.

Joshua Myers432 said:If they managed to put the first man in space, I suppose they can figure out how to manufacture a gas turbine. 🤣

They didn't need it before; now they have no choice. In the long run, the West is actually doing them a favor. Instead of just sitting on their oil and gas reserves without innovating, they're being forced to actually build something useful. Maybe we could take a page out of that book. Instead of just renting out vacation rentals, changing linens, and flipping burgers on a grill, maybe we should try manufacturing something intelligent for a change.

Oh, they'll do it. Everything goes smooth as silk, just like the "Great Leap Forward" in China. If they decide they want to start cranking out 7nm processors, they'll make it happen. Anything is possible.

Joshua Myers432 said:If they managed to put the first man in space, I suppose they can figure out how to manufacture a gas turbine. 🤣

They didn't need it before; now they have no choice. In the long run, the West is actually doing them a favor. Instead of just sitting on their oil and gas reserves without innovating, they're being forced to actually build something useful. Maybe we could take a page out of that book. Instead of just renting out vacation rentals, changing linens, and flipping burgers on a grill, maybe we should try manufacturing something intelligent for a change.

The only thing more naive than thinking they'll seize Ukraine in a matter of days only to be greeted by flower parades, is believing they'll suddenly start manufacturing everything themselves overnight.🤦

The mentioned Siemens boss, who actually understands how an economy functions, put it quite bluntly: Russia has nothing to offer the world besides oil and gas. To expect them to produce high-quality, modern industrial goods while buried under sanctions? That’s nothing more than a fairy tale for toddlers.

Best,