Sanctions on Russia

Anthony Hill5 said:You people have been chanting that same mantra since 2014, yet here we are, still stuck in the exact same spot.

Food production has actually ramped up significantly since 2014. They’ll need to scale things up even more now, but smuggling will definitely play a role. It isn't easy to isolate a country that massive; it’s not North Korea.

Christian Torres3 said:Oh, they'll do it. Everything goes smooth as silk, just like the "Great Leap Forward" in China. If they decide they want to start cranking out 7nm processors, they'll make it happen. Anything is possible.

People used to laugh at the Chinese decades ago—maybe 30 or 40 years back. Nowadays? Nobody's laughing anymore.

Let's be real—the Chinese wouldn't have reached their current economic standing on their own. It was foreign investment that actually turned them into the world's factory for just about everything.

China is the world's factory floor—and honestly, the West built it that way.
The West can eventually pivot to some other manufacturing hub, but China? They can't just go out and find another West.

Joshua Myers432 said:Food production has actually ramped up significantly since 2014. They’ll need to scale things up even more now, but smuggling will definitely play a role. It isn't easy to isolate a country that massive; it’s not North Korea.

Local seeds or Western corporate stuff?

Are we talking homegrown herbicides/insecticides/fertilizers or the usual Western chemical imports?

I mean, they aren't even capable of manufacturing fireproof flight suits for their pilots, so they have to rely on shell companies and gray-market smuggling just to get the gear needed for training.

https://twitter.com/deanwingrin/stat...40951291478016

Nathan Evans78 said:From what I recall, the whole point of these sanctions was to shake up Putin’s inner circle and rattle his cage.

But honestly? I’m worried we might just end up seeing Prigozhin installed in power, while all those billions of dollars are just tossed down the drain. 🤣

we might even end up lifting sanctions on him too...
we're certainly going to be showing a lot of patience there

North Korea

hollowdriver13 said:Local seeds or Western corporate stuff?

Are we talking homegrown herbicides/insecticides/fertilizers or the usual Western chemical imports?

I mean, they aren't even capable of manufacturing fireproof flight suits for their pilots, so they have to rely on shell companies and gray-market smuggling just to get the gear needed for training.

https://twitter.com/deanwingrin/stat...40951291478016

I'm not sure, but I do know they've been under sanctions since 2014. Besides, it’s delusional to think sanctions work perfectly. Smuggling will always exist, and China will sell them absolutely everything they need or want.

And it isn't realistic to assume sanctions will kick them back into the Dark Ages. The list of Russian technological achievements over the last 80 years is too long; if we tried to hit them with those kinds of sanctions, we'd be the ones crawling into bunkers.

hollowdriver13 said:Local seeds or Western corporate stuff?

Are we talking homegrown herbicides/insecticides/fertilizers or the usual Western chemical imports?

I mean, they aren't even capable of manufacturing fireproof flight suits for their pilots, so they have to rely on shell companies and gray-market smuggling just to get the gear needed for training.

https://twitter.com/deanwingrin/stat...40951291478016

And don't even get me started on the farm equipment—that's all imported from the West, too.

Joshua Myers432 said:Food production has actually ramped up significantly since 2014. They’ll need to scale things up even more now, but smuggling will definitely play a role. It isn't easy to isolate a country that massive; it’s not North Korea.

It isn't just about how much they can grow, though—it’s about what they can actually buy. Since products from the USA and the European Union are blacklisted, payments are slow and they have to find workarounds. They can pull stuff from China; there’s definitely some trade happening under the radar. Up until 2022, everything was basically one click away and totally seamless. It was a simple exchange: we give them energy and certain other goods, they give us cash. We give them cash, they give us products—everyone wins. It would be a different story if they were being attacked, which might spark local motivation, but right now, they’re just doing whatever they can to get by.

Yeah, it's not North Korea, but even there, things aren't exactly perfect. People still struggle. The people in Russia will definitely feel the squeeze, just maybe not as hard as people in Korea. China is a heavy hitter, maybe even more dangerous than Russia. They have the money, the resources, and they're very self-contained. They tend to copy what they don't know how to do yet, though they're getting better at it. They can pretty much manufacture almost anything on their own now.

Joshua Myers432 said:I'm not sure, but I do know they've been under sanctions since 2014. Besides, it’s delusional to think sanctions work perfectly. Smuggling will always exist, and China will sell them absolutely everything they need or want.

And it isn't realistic to assume sanctions will kick them back into the Dark Ages. The list of Russian technological achievements over the last 80 years is too long; if we tried to hit them with those kinds of sanctions, we'd be the ones crawling into bunkers.

I believe these sanctions will leave Russia in a far more precarious position today than the USSR ever faced back then. To a significant extent, Russia has become deeply integrated into the global economy. Foreign corporations built massive facilities within Russia to manufacture and assemble goods destined for both domestic consumption and international markets. Now, everything has ground to a halt. This isn't because Americans wouldn't know how to run those plants—they certainly have the expertise to manage them, having operated them long before the sanctions hit—but because they lack the essential components that used to arrive from every corner of the globe to complete the production line. As products grow more complex, the reliance on foreign parts becomes even more absolute. During the USSR era, things were different; most goods were manufactured entirely within the borders, making the system almost completely self-sufficient. That is simply no longer the case. Another critical distinction is the scope of isolation. Currently, only Russia and Belarus are being hit with these sanctions, leaving them isolated on their own. This is a far cry from the industrial might and collective potential once held by the entire former USSR. Furthermore, much of that old industrial capacity has already vanished; factories were repurposed or shuttered long ago as obsolete, replaced by modern facilities that rely on a worldwide supply chain. Even if they managed to jumpstart some of those legacy production lines, one has to wonder if such outdated products could ever meet today’s modern standards and demands. Though, I suppose anything is better than nothing.

Joshua Myers432 said:Food production has actually ramped up significantly since 2014. They’ll need to scale things up even more now, but smuggling will definitely play a role. It isn't easy to isolate a country that massive; it’s not North Korea.

Oh sure, that constitutes massive progress. We are talking about wheat production and livestock here, after all. One cannot simply ignore the fact that this requires high-level technology and actual specialized know-how.

Besides, I pointed out at the very onset of the war that their entire agricultural sector remains heavily dependent on Western machinery.

feralhawk45 said:Sanctions are being bypassed regardless. Some Russian commodities—raw materials—will always find a buyer, just like sanctioned goods will always find their way to Russian consumers.

The real issue for the Russians is the math. They’re forced to dump their raw materials at a massive discount while paying insane premiums to acquire anything under sanction.

Do you honestly think they’re paying much higher prices for energy than those bakeries over in the European Union? 😁

Beyond having an abundance of critical resources to spare, Russia is also a member of two major international organizations:

BRICS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
The BRICS have a combined area of 39,746,220 km2 (15,346,100 sq mi) and an estimated total population of about 3.21 billion, or about 26.7% of the world's land surface and 41.5% of the global population. Brazil, Russia, India, and China are among the world's ten largest countries by population, area, and GDP, and the latter three are widely considered to be current or emerging superpowers. All five states are members of the G20, with a combined nominal GDP of US$26.6 trillion (about 26.2% of the gross world product), a total GDP (PPP) of around US$51.99 trillion (32.1% of global GDP PPP), and an estimated US$4.46 trillion in combined foreign reserves (as of 2018).

and

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)

The aim of the organization is to strengthen good-neighborly, friendly relations and mutual trust among Member States; to exert common efforts for the protection of regional peace, security and stability; to fight against terrorism, radicalism, separatism, organized crime and illegal migration; to reinforce cooperation in political, economic, scientific, technologic and energy, as well as environmental issues.

Do you really believe these partners are selling them goods at a markup, or that they've actually been crippled by sanctions? You can't impose meaningful sanctions on nations like China, India, or Russia. These "sanctions" have been an empty charade from day one. 🤣

It’s kind of funny that Apple hasn't slapped any sanctions on Russia yet. From what I can see, Russian leaders seem pretty obsessed with using iPhones and Apple Watches...
Instead of picking up some Chinese phone or whatever.

dustyowl29 said:It’s kind of funny that Apple hasn't slapped any sanctions on Russia yet. From what I can see, Russian leaders seem pretty obsessed with using iPhones and Apple Watches...
Instead of picking up some Chinese phone or whatever.

https://www.politico.eu/article/appl...20of%20Ukraine.

Actually, Apple pulled out of Russia right alongside Samsung at the very start.
But man, you gotta admit, that obsession those Russians have with Western brands is pretty fascinating. 😬

Noah Diaz said:Do you honestly think they’re paying much higher prices for energy than those bakeries over in the European Union? 😁

Beyond having an abundance of critical resources to spare, Russia is also a member of two major international organizations:

BRICS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
The BRICS have a combined area of 39,746,220 km2 (15,346,100 sq mi) and an estimated total population of about 3.21 billion, or about 26.7% of the world's land surface and 41.5% of the global population. Brazil, Russia, India, and China are among the world's ten largest countries by population, area, and GDP, and the latter three are widely considered to be current or emerging superpowers. All five states are members of the G20, with a combined nominal GDP of US$26.6 trillion (about 26.2% of the gross world product), a total GDP (PPP) of around US$51.99 trillion (32.1% of global GDP PPP), and an estimated US$4.46 trillion in combined foreign reserves (as of 2018).

and

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)

The aim of the organization is to strengthen good-neighborly, friendly relations and mutual trust among Member States; to exert common efforts for the protection of regional peace, security and stability; to fight against terrorism, radicalism, separatism, organized crime and illegal migration; to reinforce cooperation in political, economic, scientific, technologic and energy, as well as environmental issues.

Do you really believe these partners are selling them goods at a markup, or that they've actually been crippled by sanctions? You can't impose meaningful sanctions on nations like China, India, or Russia. These "sanctions" have been an empty charade from day one. 🤣

Is Russia actually acting as some pivotal force within this BRICS bloc?

Back in 2021—long before the current conflict erupted—China stood as Russia's primary trading partner; the next member of BRICS in terms of goods exchanged with Russia didn't even appear until 14th place, which was India with less than $10 billion in trade, followed by Brazil at 18th place with a mere $5 billion.

The GDP of these BRICS nations is largely generated through trade with G7 countries, rather than through internal commerce within the BRICS group itself.

do

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)

Do you really think these comrades are selling their goods at inflated prices, or that they have been crushed by sanctions? Do you truly believe it is possible to impose meaningful sanctions on giants like China, India, or Russia? These so-called 'sanctions' have been nothing more than an empty narrative from the very beginning. 🤣

The SCO is hardly an alliance; half of those nations are part of the Russian KGB-led security framework that everyone seems to be fleeing from at full speed.

The SCO primarily focuses on intelligence sharing regarding counter-terrorism, anti-separatism, and similar matters.

The moment you see both China and India involved, it becomes glaringly obvious that this has nothing to do with military alliances or anything of serious strategic weight.

But then again, all of this sounds quite convincing upon first glance. Do not let that discourage you.

Anthony Hill5 said:Is Russia actually acting as some pivotal force within this BRICS bloc?

Back in 2021—long before the current conflict erupted—China stood as Russia's primary trading partner; the next member of BRICS in terms of goods exchanged with Russia didn't even appear until 14th place, which was India with less than $10 billion in trade, followed by Brazil at 18th place with a mere $5 billion.

The GDP of these BRICS nations is largely generated through trade with G7 countries, rather than through internal commerce within the BRICS group itself.

do

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)

Do you really think these comrades are selling their goods at inflated prices, or that they have been crushed by sanctions? Do you truly believe it is possible to impose meaningful sanctions on giants like China, India, or Russia? These so-called 'sanctions' have been nothing more than an empty narrative from the very beginning. 🤣

The SCO is hardly an alliance; half of those nations are part of the Russian KGB-led security framework that everyone seems to be fleeing from at full speed.

The SCO primarily focuses on intelligence sharing regarding counter-terrorism, anti-separatism, and similar matters.

The moment you see both China and India involved, it becomes glaringly obvious that this has nothing to do with military alliances or anything of serious strategic weight.

But then again, all of this sounds quite convincing upon first glance. Do not let that discourage you.

And what about BRICS or the SCO? Are they even significant factors?

dustyowl29 said:It’s kind of funny that Apple hasn't slapped any sanctions on Russia yet. From what I can see, Russian leaders seem pretty obsessed with using iPhones and Apple Watches...
Instead of picking up some Chinese phone or whatever.

Where is that iPhone actually made? 😁

Christian Torres3 said:And what about BRICS or the SCO? Are they even significant factors?

They become very significant factors when you start talking about these "sanctions."

Anthony Hill5 said:Oh sure, that constitutes massive progress. We are talking about wheat production and livestock here, after all. One cannot simply ignore the fact that this requires high-level technology and actual specialized know-how.

Besides, I pointed out at the very onset of the war that their entire agricultural sector remains heavily dependent on Western machinery.

That’s not true. If your grandma is growing lettuce in her backyard, then sure, it counts.

Construction seems to be blowing up over there right now, but I guess the real question is how they're actually managing without much heavy machinery. They've got plenty of equipment coming in from European manufacturers, though.

Noah Diaz said:Do you honestly think they’re paying much higher prices for energy than those bakeries over in the European Union? 😁

Beyond having an abundance of critical resources to spare, Russia is also a member of two major international organizations:

BRICS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
The BRICS have a combined area of 39,746,220 km2 (15,346,100 sq mi) and an estimated total population of about 3.21 billion, or about 26.7% of the world's land surface and 41.5% of the global population. Brazil, Russia, India, and China are among the world's ten largest countries by population, area, and GDP, and the latter three are widely considered to be current or emerging superpowers. All five states are members of the G20, with a combined nominal GDP of US$26.6 trillion (about 26.2% of the gross world product), a total GDP (PPP) of around US$51.99 trillion (32.1% of global GDP PPP), and an estimated US$4.46 trillion in combined foreign reserves (as of 2018).

and

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)

The aim of the organization is to strengthen good-neighborly, friendly relations and mutual trust among Member States; to exert common efforts for the protection of regional peace, security and stability; to fight against terrorism, radicalism, separatism, organized crime and illegal migration; to reinforce cooperation in political, economic, scientific, technologic and energy, as well as environmental issues.

Do you really believe these partners are selling them goods at a markup, or that they've actually been crippled by sanctions? You can't impose meaningful sanctions on nations like China, India, or Russia. These "sanctions" have been an empty charade from day one. 🤣

Russia is turning out to be a much smaller player than everyone thought. It took the West less than a year to pivot to an economy that doesn't rely on Russian energy. Now, Russia is just stuck falling further behind the West and becoming permanently tethered to China.
To deal with China, the West would need at least a decade. Sure, China is the world's manufacturing powerhouse, but factories can always be moved elsewhere and production can be spread out globally.
On the flip side, China can't survive without the West. Not just because the West built that manufacturing machine in the first place, but because their whole economy is drowning in debt and relies entirely on constant growth.