Sanctions on Russia

It’s going to be finished by the end of this year, mark my words.

lp

Christian Torres3 said:...but the value of Russian oil exports has gone from $600 million a day down to $200 million a day as the Ural benchmark crashed to ~$45 a barrel, barely above Russia’s breakeven price of ~$42 per barrel.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune...feld-tian/amp/

Everyone's got an opinion, but look at this. Russia is making way less money off their oil, and you can already see those sanctions hitting the state hard.

If you just grab the highest possible figure without stopping to wonder why it was so high in the first place—or if that number even makes sense to use as a baseline—and then you layer on your own little mathematical fantasies where you assume every single barrel is sold at the absolute lowest price point regardless of reality, well, presto! Suddenly Russia is earning three times less, and all those readers who aren't really looking closely at the details are absolutely thrilled by this supposed news of Russia's collapse...

But while we're wandering outside that fantasy world, the actual situation can be somewhat observed right here: https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/
On the first graph, "Daily flows by fuel type," you can actually hover your mouse over different parts of the chart to see the specific value of a particular product on any given day...

I'd suggest taking a look at what the daily figures under "Crude oil" looked like during the first week of 2022 when Brent Crude was hovering between $80-$85, and then compare that to January or February of this year when Brent Crude was also sitting right around that same $80-$85 range...

It is truly fascinating to watch how the most vocal critics will eagerly swallow and repeat propaganda, even when it's just a reflection of their own biases...

quietviper0 said:If you just grab the highest possible figure without stopping to wonder why it was so high in the first place—or if that number even makes sense to use as a baseline—and then you layer on your own little mathematical fantasies where you assume every single barrel is sold at the absolute lowest price point regardless of reality, well, presto! Suddenly Russia is earning three times less, and all those readers who aren't really looking closely at the details are absolutely thrilled by this supposed news of Russia's collapse...

But while we're wandering outside that fantasy world, the actual situation can be somewhat observed right here: https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/
On the first graph, "Daily flows by fuel type," you can actually hover your mouse over different parts of the chart to see the specific value of a particular product on any given day...

I'd suggest taking a look at what the daily figures under "Crude oil" looked like during the first week of 2022 when Brent Crude was hovering between $80-$85, and then compare that to January or February of this year when Brent Crude was also sitting right around that same $80-$85 range...

It is truly fascinating to watch how the most vocal critics will eagerly swallow and repeat propaganda, even when it's just a reflection of their own biases...

I said "this is just one opinion." You got yours? Great.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Ever since February 24th, people have been openly saying sanctions have a long-term impact. Which part of that simple sentence is confusing you? :nezna:
I haven't seen anyone throwing around "short-term" figures of 30% anywhere. Maybe you read that on some other forum, because it definitely wasn't here. :nezna:
Here are the facts: Russia had a 5% GDP deficit in the first month. That could potentially hit 60% of GDP by year-end. It took us 30 years to rack up debt like that, and we're a corrupt mess at that.

Is the annual deficit calculated by just multiplying the monthly deficit? I remember my old accountant in Chicago used to roll his eyes whenever someone tried to simplify things that way. It’s never that straightforward. 🤣
Pure brilliance. Absolutely flawless.

They teach you in elementary school that memory is everything. They lied. It’s just a burden.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Things aren't going the way I expected—I figured the first year of this war would hit Europe way harder.
But don't go thinking you've mastered prophecy just because you missed every single call. ☕
They say assumptions are the mother of all screw-ups. 😍
I know you've been keeping tabs on the insightful Milan. 😵

I can see you really enjoy finding ways to connect with him... 😁

My only real hope is that someone finally steps up today and screams "ENOUGH!!!" But honestly, what am I even doing talking about hope? That's just a comfort for the naive...

It’s not about what some visionary expert thinks... you really just need to listen for a moment and consider the opposing side—those folks pushing the idea that we should launch a lightning-fast pursuit in Ukraine based on the hope of some miracle weapon arriving any second now, even though we all know it isn't actually coming... if you could just take a second to imagine how that would play out...

It seems that because MacGregor and Ritter have been branded as Russophiles—which, honestly, means you shouldn't take their word at face value anyway—simply mentioning their names will cause people to jump to conclusions and accuse me of spreading pro-Russian propaganda...
But really, isn't it worth taking a moment to listen to a different perspective once in a while, even if it feels a bit outside the mainstream or doesn't quite sit right with you? At the end of the day, these are seasoned veterans who have actually been in the trenches, not just some armchair generals shouting from the sidelines, so I truly believe there’s value in hearing them out... even if their predictions turn out to be off the mark, much like my own or even yours...
I've been spending quite a bit of time lately diving into this particular video, and I have to say, it really gets you thinking about the broader implications of everything we're seeing unfold in the world right now... It’s one of those pieces that doesn't just give you surface-level facts, but instead tries to connect the dots between complex geopolitical shifts and how they might actually impact our daily lives here in the States... There is a certain weight to the arguments being presented, especially when you consider how much the global landscape has shifted since the turn of the century... It makes you wonder if we are truly prepared for the ripple effects of these massive institutional changes, or if we're all just reacting to the waves as they hit us... It’s certainly worth a deep dive for anyone interested in the underlying mechanics of global power...

William Miller12 said:But is that what we should expect from Ukrainians?
To just give up and bow down to Putin?

You have a point there; the losses on both sides have raised the stakes, and ambitions are much higher now than they were at the start.
Before February 24th, Zelenskyy might have been more open to trading Crimea or negotiating over Donbas. After the retreat around Kyiv, Putin probably would have been willing to strike a deal, but by then, too much Ukrainian blood had already been spilled for Zelenskyy to even consider it. Honestly, anyone in Ukraine would feel the same.

Because theoretically, Putin could survive a withdrawal or even a loss—he has enough power to just eliminate his political rivals if he needs to (and it looks like he’s already started).

But Ukraine is quite literally fighting for its survival. If the Russians win, we're looking at a level of genocide not seen since the Mongol conquests in the 13th century. The Holocaust would look like a bedtime story in comparison.

Sanctions are also a form of political communication. The goal isn't always the same during every phase of their rollout.

For instance, at the very beginning, the message sent to Putin was simply, "this is going to cost you."

And they are introduced gradually specifically to give the other side a chance to rethink things.

Even the argument that "sanctions hurt us more than Putin" is intentional. It demonstrates resolve and a willingness to take a hit. People love to joke about how one person's misfortune doesn't affect them, but if you have 100 cows and your neighbor only has 10, losing two isn't exactly a tragedy for you.

Though, looking at the situation now, it seems both the EU and the rest of the Western world are adapting much better than the doomsday prophets predicted. Those "two cows" aren't going to be an issue.

But we also need to remember that we haven't even reached half of the potential sanctions yet. Honestly, I'm not sure we've even hit a third of what they could be.

Take Chinese companies, for example—some are refusing to work with Russia because they're terrified of secondary sanctions. Yet, nobody in the West has even mentioned secondary sanctions against China. ☕

So, all these sanctions, along with the military involvement from the USA and others, are still being handled with extreme caution...

Back in Vietnam, the Soviets were shooting down American B-52s and other planes, and Lyndon B. Johnson refused to authorize bombing Hanoi for years just so some "Soviet instructor" wouldn't accidentally get killed.
In Korea, Soviet pilots would regularly fly missions, shoot down American planes, and then simply zip back across the border to their bases.
So, what year did all those pilots in the USSR actually get their official medals and promotions based on these operations?

And how did Gallipoli end up?
The side that was defending won, didn't they?

___

The video above might actually help clear up some of those finer details regarding that issue, even if we're just talking about how the fog eventually starts to lift...

William Miller12 said:But is that what we should expect from Ukrainians?
To just give up and bow down to Putin?

You have a point there; the losses on both sides have raised the stakes, and ambitions are much higher now than they were at the start.
Before February 24th, Zelenskyy might have been more open to trading Crimea or negotiating over Donbas. After the retreat around Kyiv, Putin probably would have been willing to strike a deal, but by then, too much Ukrainian blood had already been spilled for Zelenskyy to even consider it. Honestly, anyone in Ukraine would feel the same.

Because theoretically, Putin could survive a withdrawal or even a loss—he has enough power to just eliminate his political rivals if he needs to (and it looks like he’s already started).

But Ukraine is quite literally fighting for its survival. If the Russians win, we're looking at a level of genocide not seen since the Mongol conquests in the 13th century. The Holocaust would look like a bedtime story in comparison.

Sanctions are also a form of political communication. The goal isn't always the same during every phase of their rollout.

For instance, at the very beginning, the message sent to Putin was simply, "this is going to cost you."

And they are introduced gradually specifically to give the other side a chance to rethink things.

Even the argument that "sanctions hurt us more than Putin" is intentional. It demonstrates resolve and a willingness to take a hit. People love to joke about how one person's misfortune doesn't affect them, but if you have 100 cows and your neighbor only has 10, losing two isn't exactly a tragedy for you.

Though, looking at the situation now, it seems both the EU and the rest of the Western world are adapting much better than the doomsday prophets predicted. Those "two cows" aren't going to be an issue.

But we also need to remember that we haven't even reached half of the potential sanctions yet. Honestly, I'm not sure we've even hit a third of what they could be.

Take Chinese companies, for example—some are refusing to work with Russia because they're terrified of secondary sanctions. Yet, nobody in the West has even mentioned secondary sanctions against China. ☕

So, all these sanctions, along with the military involvement from the USA and others, are still being handled with extreme caution...

Back in Vietnam, the Soviets were shooting down American B-52s and other planes, and Lyndon B. Johnson refused to authorize bombing Hanoi for years just so some "Soviet instructor" wouldn't accidentally get killed.
In Korea, Soviet pilots would regularly fly missions, shoot down American planes, and then simply zip back across the border to their bases.
So, what year did all those pilots in the USSR actually get their official medals and promotions based on these operations?

And how did Gallipoli end up?
The side that was defending won, didn't they?

___

True, but when you consider the sheer level of devastation and those staggering losses—around 110,000 lives lost in total—it changes the perspective quite a bit, especially since, if my memory serves me right, the casualty ratio was closer to 1:1 rather than that "standard" 3:1 advantage usually cited in favor of the defenders...
With math like that, any kind of supposed "victory" would be a pretty tough pill for Ukraine to swallow...

It sounds absolutely unbelievable, but the entire Anglo-French initiative regarding the Dardanelles was completely derailed—altering the entire tactical landscape on the ground by steering Churchill toward Gallipoli—all because of one obscure Turkish mine layer... Nusret. And just like that, this one tiny little detail—something that nobody outside of Atlanta even bothered to glance at—completely shifts the entire landscape and alters the course of the war...

Meanwhile, here we are, acting like we’re some sort of psychic visionaries or fortune tellers... endlessly bickering and trying to outsmart one another over who’s actually right and who isn't...

brightheron64 said:I can see you really enjoy finding ways to connect with him... 😁

My only real hope is that someone finally steps up today and screams "ENOUGH!!!" But honestly, what am I even doing talking about hope? That's just a comfort for the naive...

It’s not about what some visionary expert thinks... you really just need to listen for a moment and consider the opposing side—those folks pushing the idea that we should launch a lightning-fast pursuit in Ukraine based on the hope of some miracle weapon arriving any second now, even though we all know it isn't actually coming... if you could just take a second to imagine how that would play out...

It seems that because MacGregor and Ritter have been branded as Russophiles—which, honestly, means you shouldn't take their word at face value anyway—simply mentioning their names will cause people to jump to conclusions and accuse me of spreading pro-Russian propaganda...
But really, isn't it worth taking a moment to listen to a different perspective once in a while, even if it feels a bit outside the mainstream or doesn't quite sit right with you? At the end of the day, these are seasoned veterans who have actually been in the trenches, not just some armchair generals shouting from the sidelines, so I truly believe there’s value in hearing them out... even if their predictions turn out to be off the mark, much like my own or even yours...
I've been spending quite a bit of time lately diving into this particular video, and I have to say, it really gets you thinking about the broader implications of everything we're seeing unfold in the world right now... It’s one of those pieces that doesn't just give you surface-level facts, but instead tries to connect the dots between complex geopolitical shifts and how they might actually impact our daily lives here in the States... There is a certain weight to the arguments being presented, especially when you consider how much the global landscape has shifted since the turn of the century... It makes you wonder if we are truly prepared for the ripple effects of these massive institutional changes, or if we're all just reacting to the waves as they hit us... It’s certainly worth a deep dive for anyone interested in the underlying mechanics of global power...

The video above might actually help clear up some of those finer details regarding that issue, even if we're just talking about how the fog eventually starts to lift...

True, but when you consider the sheer level of devastation and those staggering losses—around 110,000 lives lost in total—it changes the perspective quite a bit, especially since, if my memory serves me right, the casualty ratio was closer to 1:1 rather than that "standard" 3:1 advantage usually cited in favor of the defenders...
With math like that, any kind of supposed "victory" would be a pretty tough pill for Ukraine to swallow...

It sounds absolutely unbelievable, but the entire Anglo-French initiative regarding the Dardanelles was completely derailed—altering the entire tactical landscape on the ground by steering Churchill toward Gallipoli—all because of one obscure Turkish mine layer... Nusret. And just like that, this one tiny little detail—something that nobody outside of Atlanta even bothered to glance at—completely shifts the entire landscape and alters the course of the war...

Meanwhile, here we are, acting like we’re some sort of psychic visionaries or fortune tellers... endlessly bickering and trying to outsmart one another over who’s actually right and who isn't...

The visionary Milan called it—he saw that Russian victory coming from a mile away! Honestly, who would even dare to doubt him now? 😁

brightheron64 said:I can see you really enjoy finding ways to connect with him... 😁

My only real hope is that someone finally steps up today and screams "ENOUGH!!!" But honestly, what am I even doing talking about hope? That's just a comfort for the naive...

It’s not about what some visionary expert thinks... you really just need to listen for a moment and consider the opposing side—those folks pushing the idea that we should launch a lightning-fast pursuit in Ukraine based on the hope of some miracle weapon arriving any second now, even though we all know it isn't actually coming... if you could just take a second to imagine how that would play out...

It seems that because MacGregor and Ritter have been branded as Russophiles—which, honestly, means you shouldn't take their word at face value anyway—simply mentioning their names will cause people to jump to conclusions and accuse me of spreading pro-Russian propaganda...
But really, isn't it worth taking a moment to listen to a different perspective once in a while, even if it feels a bit outside the mainstream or doesn't quite sit right with you? At the end of the day, these are seasoned veterans who have actually been in the trenches, not just some armchair generals shouting from the sidelines, so I truly believe there’s value in hearing them out... even if their predictions turn out to be off the mark, much like my own or even yours...
I've been spending quite a bit of time lately diving into this particular video, and I have to say, it really gets you thinking about the broader implications of everything we're seeing unfold in the world right now... It’s one of those pieces that doesn't just give you surface-level facts, but instead tries to connect the dots between complex geopolitical shifts and how they might actually impact our daily lives here in the States... There is a certain weight to the arguments being presented, especially when you consider how much the global landscape has shifted since the turn of the century... It makes you wonder if we are truly prepared for the ripple effects of these massive institutional changes, or if we're all just reacting to the waves as they hit us... It’s certainly worth a deep dive for anyone interested in the underlying mechanics of global power...

The video above might actually help clear up some of those finer details regarding that issue, even if we're just talking about how the fog eventually starts to lift...

True, but when you consider the sheer level of devastation and those staggering losses—around 110,000 lives lost in total—it changes the perspective quite a bit, especially since, if my memory serves me right, the casualty ratio was closer to 1:1 rather than that "standard" 3:1 advantage usually cited in favor of the defenders...
With math like that, any kind of supposed "victory" would be a pretty tough pill for Ukraine to swallow...

It sounds absolutely unbelievable, but the entire Anglo-French initiative regarding the Dardanelles was completely derailed—altering the entire tactical landscape on the ground by steering Churchill toward Gallipoli—all because of one obscure Turkish mine layer... Nusret. And just like that, this one tiny little detail—something that nobody outside of Atlanta even bothered to glance at—completely shifts the entire landscape and alters the course of the war...

Meanwhile, here we are, acting like we’re some sort of psychic visionaries or fortune tellers... endlessly bickering and trying to outsmart one another over who’s actually right and who isn't...

People keep calling Vladimir Putin a dictator, but honestly, what exactly is he afraid of? Let’s be real here—he isn't some dictator. He’s a president who was elected by the people!

I just caught this video, and honestly, it’s a fascinating watch! It really dives deep into some complex geopolitical shifts that we often overlook in our daily news cycles. I was sitting here with my morning coffee, scrolling through my feed, and when this popped up, I knew I had to pay attention. The way the creator breaks down the current tensions and the long-term implications for global stability is quite impressive. It’s not just surface-level commentary; there’s actual substance here. It makes you step back and realize how interconnected everything truly is—from energy markets to international alliances. If you have a few minutes to spare today, I highly recommend giving this a look. It might change the way you view the headlines tomorrow!

That was it for me. I’m officially done listening to this!

Even in America, we have our own version of a "visionary" genius. Honestly, some people are just spectacularly clueless! 🤦

steelfox98 said:Is the annual deficit calculated by just multiplying the monthly deficit? I remember my old accountant in Chicago used to roll his eyes whenever someone tried to simplify things that way. It’s never that straightforward. 🤣
Pure brilliance. Absolutely flawless.

They teach you in elementary school that memory is everything. They lied. It’s just a burden.

Look, if the deficit was just $25 million in the first month—which is 5% of the ANNUAL budget—and that same rate continues every month, then it's 5% x 12 months = 60%. Use some basic math.

brightheron64 said:I can see you really enjoy finding ways to connect with him... 😁

My only real hope is that someone finally steps up today and screams "ENOUGH!!!" But honestly, what am I even doing talking about hope? That's just a comfort for the naive...

It’s not about what some visionary expert thinks... you really just need to listen for a moment and consider the opposing side—those folks pushing the idea that we should launch a lightning-fast pursuit in Ukraine based on the hope of some miracle weapon arriving any second now, even though we all know it isn't actually coming... if you could just take a second to imagine how that would play out...

It seems that because MacGregor and Ritter have been branded as Russophiles—which, honestly, means you shouldn't take their word at face value anyway—simply mentioning their names will cause people to jump to conclusions and accuse me of spreading pro-Russian propaganda...
But really, isn't it worth taking a moment to listen to a different perspective once in a while, even if it feels a bit outside the mainstream or doesn't quite sit right with you? At the end of the day, these are seasoned veterans who have actually been in the trenches, not just some armchair generals shouting from the sidelines, so I truly believe there’s value in hearing them out... even if their predictions turn out to be off the mark, much like my own or even yours...
I've been spending quite a bit of time lately diving into this particular video, and I have to say, it really gets you thinking about the broader implications of everything we're seeing unfold in the world right now... It’s one of those pieces that doesn't just give you surface-level facts, but instead tries to connect the dots between complex geopolitical shifts and how they might actually impact our daily lives here in the States... There is a certain weight to the arguments being presented, especially when you consider how much the global landscape has shifted since the turn of the century... It makes you wonder if we are truly prepared for the ripple effects of these massive institutional changes, or if we're all just reacting to the waves as they hit us... It’s certainly worth a deep dive for anyone interested in the underlying mechanics of global power...

The video above might actually help clear up some of those finer details regarding that issue, even if we're just talking about how the fog eventually starts to lift...

True, but when you consider the sheer level of devastation and those staggering losses—around 110,000 lives lost in total—it changes the perspective quite a bit, especially since, if my memory serves me right, the casualty ratio was closer to 1:1 rather than that "standard" 3:1 advantage usually cited in favor of the defenders...
With math like that, any kind of supposed "victory" would be a pretty tough pill for Ukraine to swallow...

It sounds absolutely unbelievable, but the entire Anglo-French initiative regarding the Dardanelles was completely derailed—altering the entire tactical landscape on the ground by steering Churchill toward Gallipoli—all because of one obscure Turkish mine layer... Nusret. And just like that, this one tiny little detail—something that nobody outside of Atlanta even bothered to glance at—completely shifts the entire landscape and alters the course of the war...

Meanwhile, here we are, acting like we’re some sort of psychic visionaries or fortune tellers... endlessly bickering and trying to outsmart one another over who’s actually right and who isn't...

Please tell me you are joking 🤣

McGregor:

On February 27, just three days after the conflict began, he appeared on Fox News and declared: “Now the battle in the Middle East is almost over, the Israeli troops are largely surrounded and cut OFF, now they have a concentration down in the southeast in 30 to 40 thousand, and if they don't vend, surrender the next 24 hours, the Russians will ultimately annihilate them”.

By March 6 on Fox Business, he was busy concocting explanations for why his prophecy failed to materialize.

“At the first five days, the Russian forces, I think, were too gentle. They have now corrected that. So I would say after another 10 days this should be completely over. But the question is, what is it that Zelenskyi is going to do? The Russians have made it very clear what they want is a neutral Ukraine. This could have ended days ago if he accepted that. And then they can adjust the borders, but the eastern part of Ukraine is firmly in Russian hands, but again, the Russians are not seizing the territory. They are destroying Ukrainian forces. That’s their focus”.

Then, after another 10 days, the colonel attempted to act as though his prediction had somehow been vindicated. During his appearance on Tucker Carlson's Fox News program, he asserted: "The war is really over for the Ukrainians,” and “They have been grounded to bits. There’s no question about that despite what we report on our mainstream media”.

https://disinfo.detector.media/en/po...day-of-the-war

That convicted pedophile Ritter has been blustering about the exact same nonsense as the man mentioned above, topped off by his infamy for pushing those idiotic conspiracy theories regarding Bucha.

Perhaps we really should listen to them, because if these two ever make a claim, you can rest assured that either nothing will happen or the exact opposite will occur.

goldenorca11 said:The visionary Milan called it—he saw that Russian victory coming from a mile away! Honestly, who would even dare to doubt him now? 😁

People keep calling Vladimir Putin a dictator, but honestly, what exactly is he afraid of? Let’s be real here—he isn't some dictator. He’s a president who was elected by the people!

I just caught this video, and honestly, it’s a fascinating watch! It really dives deep into some complex geopolitical shifts that we often overlook in our daily news cycles. I was sitting here with my morning coffee, scrolling through my feed, and when this popped up, I knew I had to pay attention. The way the creator breaks down the current tensions and the long-term implications for global stability is quite impressive. It’s not just surface-level commentary; there’s actual substance here. It makes you step back and realize how interconnected everything truly is—from energy markets to international alliances. If you have a few minutes to spare today, I highly recommend giving this a look. It might change the way you view the headlines tomorrow!

That was it for me. I’m officially done listening to this!

Even in America, we have our own version of a "visionary" genius. Honestly, some people are just spectacularly clueless! 🤦

If you look at things from the perspective of the Democratic Party, Putin was technically elected through democratic processes, much like Marshall once was... 😁

The thing is, you really have to realize how definitions like "dictatorship" or "democracy" are constantly being reshaped to fit whatever agenda is currently in play...
Just as an example (and yes, I know, here comes the whataboutism):

Thatcher praised Augusto Pinochet, saying he "brought democracy to Chile." She also expressed Her gratitude for Pinochet's Help in Britain's 1982 Falkland Islands War with Argentina.

If we dive even deeper into history, we can see how genuine democratic movements in Iran eventually spiraled into a monarchy, and then ultimately morphed into the bleak theocracy we see today...
All through "democratic" processes, apparently...

Anthony Hill5 said:Please tell me you are joking 🤣

McGregor:

On February 27, just three days after the conflict began, he appeared on Fox News and declared: “Now the battle in the Middle East is almost over, the Israeli troops are largely surrounded and cut OFF, now they have a concentration down in the southeast in 30 to 40 thousand, and if they don't vend, surrender the next 24 hours, the Russians will ultimately annihilate them”.

By March 6 on Fox Business, he was busy concocting explanations for why his prophecy failed to materialize.

“At the first five days, the Russian forces, I think, were too gentle. They have now corrected that. So I would say after another 10 days this should be completely over. But the question is, what is it that Zelenskyi is going to do? The Russians have made it very clear what they want is a neutral Ukraine. This could have ended days ago if he accepted that. And then they can adjust the borders, but the eastern part of Ukraine is firmly in Russian hands, but again, the Russians are not seizing the territory. They are destroying Ukrainian forces. That’s their focus”.

Then, after another 10 days, the colonel attempted to act as though his prediction had somehow been vindicated. During his appearance on Tucker Carlson's Fox News program, he asserted: "The war is really over for the Ukrainians,” and “They have been grounded to bits. There’s no question about that despite what we report on our mainstream media”.

https://disinfo.detector.media/en/po...day-of-the-war

That convicted pedophile Ritter has been blustering about the exact same nonsense as the man mentioned above, topped off by his infamy for pushing those idiotic conspiracy theories regarding Bucha.

Perhaps we really should listen to them, because if these two ever make a claim, you can rest assured that either nothing will happen or the exact opposite will occur.

It feels like we've reached a point where everyone is just shouting whatever convenient nonsense suits their specific narrative...

I'm simply pointing out that, from time to time, we really ought to call out the extremes on the other side as well. No matter how inaccurate or foolish they might seem—is everything Zelenskyy says truly pure, unadulterated, and undeniable truth?

brightheron64 said:If you look at things from the perspective of the Democratic Party, Putin was technically elected through democratic processes, much like Marshall once was... 😁

The thing is, you really have to realize how definitions like "dictatorship" or "democracy" are constantly being reshaped to fit whatever agenda is currently in play...
Just as an example (and yes, I know, here comes the whataboutism):

Thatcher praised Augusto Pinochet, saying he "brought democracy to Chile." She also expressed Her gratitude for Pinochet's Help in Britain's 1982 Falkland Islands War with Argentina.

If we dive even deeper into history, we can see how genuine democratic movements in Iran eventually spiraled into a monarchy, and then ultimately morphed into the bleak theocracy we see today...
All through "democratic" processes, apparently...

It feels like we've reached a point where everyone is just shouting whatever convenient nonsense suits their specific narrative...

I'm simply pointing out that, from time to time, we really ought to call out the extremes on the other side as well. No matter how inaccurate or foolish they might seem—is everything Zelenskyy says truly pure, unadulterated, and undeniable truth?

What about that? 😁

I almost just replied with that top sentence! That would have been total trolling, so I bit my tongue.

We have to ask ourselves: where does the truth actually lie between the Russian extreme (that Ukrainians are Nazis committing genocide) and the opposite view (that Ukrainians are defending themselves against an aggressor four times their size, an industrial powerhouse that lies constantly and plays dumb)?

Are Ukrainians Nazis? Is Putin a democratically elected leader?

Or is Putin more like Adolf Hitler, turning Russian prisoners and mercenaries into criminals in the 21st century who would have charged into America if we were their neighbors and crushed us? We aren't neighbors (thank God), so he went after Ukraine instead.

To keep this even tangentially related to the main topic, I should remind everyone of my post from a few days ago regarding the decline of the Russian economy and the sluggish growth within the European Union.

goldenorca11 said:Title: The Impact of Sanctions—Russia is Slowing Down while the EU Stagnates

subtitle :

Since they aren't releasing official economic data anymore, we can only guess what’s happening over there. Depending on who you ask, Russia's economy could sink by anywhere from 2.2 to 4.5 percent this year. Meanwhile, the European Commission is forecasting growth for the EU at just 0.8 percent. It’s pretty clear that these sanctions are draining both economies.

Two takeaways:

However, President Putin was lucky to have the "iron" Janet Yellen leading their central bank. She stepped in with unprecedented measures that prevented a currency collapse and a run on the banks.

Leader 909, page 10

Perhaps most importantly:

Regarding how much damage each side takes, entering a trade war inevitably hurts everyone involved. But these sanctions against Russia send a massive signal to China about just how ready the West is to act if anyone threatens democratic allies—especially Taiwan.

Leader 909, page 11

Sanctions are having an effect. It's a slow burn, but it's happening. Over time, the impact will only intensify because there is a social component alongside the economic one.

There is also significant military pressure to consider. The Russians aren't exactly winning this war. Despite the brutal situation in Bakhmut, what major victories has Russia actually achieved since September 2022?

Unless, of course, you count the growing number of Russians realizing they are fighting for all the wrong reasons—fighting for a little psychopath. ☕

goldenorca11 said:What about that? 😁

I almost just replied with that top sentence! That would have been total trolling, so I bit my tongue.

We have to ask ourselves: where does the truth actually lie between the Russian extreme (that Ukrainians are Nazis committing genocide) and the opposite view (that Ukrainians are defending themselves against an aggressor four times their size, an industrial powerhouse that lies constantly and plays dumb)?

Are Ukrainians Nazis? Is Putin a democratically elected leader?

Or is Putin more like Adolf Hitler, turning Russian prisoners and mercenaries into criminals in the 21st century who would have charged into America if we were their neighbors and crushed us? We aren't neighbors (thank God), so he went after Ukraine instead.

To keep this even tangentially related to the main topic, I should remind everyone of my post from a few days ago regarding the decline of the Russian economy and the sluggish growth within the European Union.

Sanctions are having an effect. It's a slow burn, but it's happening. Over time, the impact will only intensify because there is a social component alongside the economic one.

There is also significant military pressure to consider. The Russians aren't exactly winning this war. Despite the brutal situation in Bakhmut, what major victories has Russia actually achieved since September 2022?

Unless, of course, you count the growing number of Russians realizing they are fighting for all the wrong reasons—fighting for a little psychopath. ☕

Like that psychic Milan would say—it doesn't matter if they're just crawling forward inch by inch; the real question is where they eventually hit the wall.

Last year, Russia exported 40% less gas and oil than they did previously LESS.
I find it absolutely impossible to believe that their results will look any better this year, especially considering how much prices are currently cratering.🤔

To me, it looks like one thing and one thing only: Russia is losing this economic war.🤔

lp

brightheron64 said:If you look at things from the perspective of the Democratic Party, Putin was technically elected through democratic processes, much like Marshall once was... 😁

The thing is, you really have to realize how definitions like "dictatorship" or "democracy" are constantly being reshaped to fit whatever agenda is currently in play...
Just as an example (and yes, I know, here comes the whataboutism):

Thatcher praised Augusto Pinochet, saying he "brought democracy to Chile." She also expressed Her gratitude for Pinochet's Help in Britain's 1982 Falkland Islands War with Argentina.

If we dive even deeper into history, we can see how genuine democratic movements in Iran eventually spiraled into a monarchy, and then ultimately morphed into the bleak theocracy we see today...
All through "democratic" processes, apparently...

It feels like we've reached a point where everyone is just shouting whatever convenient nonsense suits their specific narrative...

I'm simply pointing out that, from time to time, we really ought to call out the extremes on the other side as well. No matter how inaccurate or foolish they might seem—is everything Zelenskyy says truly pure, unadulterated, and undeniable truth?

What does one have to do with the other?

A textbook example of whataboutism.

Linda Adams said:Look, if the deficit was just $25 million in the first month—which is 5% of the ANNUAL budget—and that same rate continues every month, then it's 5% x 12 months = 60%. Use some basic math.

Same question. In your book, average means multiplying a variable by a unit of measurement (time, in this case)? What’s the difference between multiplication and an average then?
Since this seems too advanced for you, here's a hint: if the annual deficit is 5%, what would the monthly one be?

Agreed. Elementary school level.

Russia's budget deficit hit 3.3 trillion RUB back in January 2023.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/...t-budget-value

To put things in perspective, Russia's nominal GDP for all of 2022 was sitting at 151.5 trillion RUB.

So, if you do the math and divide that deficit by the GDP, you're looking at a relative shortfall of 2.2% of the 2022 GDP just for the month of January alone.

And get this—if you factor in the February deficit too, that number jumps up to 3.4% of the 2022 GDP for just the first two months of 2023 (which comes out to about 5.1 trillion RUB, or roughly $67.6 billion USD).

The whole plan for the full year of 2023 actually aims to keep the budget deficit at around 2% of the GDP.

They'll likely have to dip into that $148.4 billion USD national reserve fund to cover the gap. Which means... can you believe it? Almost half of that entire sovereign wealth fund could be wiped out just trying to patch up the holes from January and February.

Last year, they pulled in $218 billion from oil sales, plus another $138 billion from gas. That brings the total to $356 billion. They aren't even struggling to make ends meet. 😁

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/b...l-embargo.html

For all of 2022, Russia managed to increase its oil output 2 percent and boost oil export earnings 20 percent, to $218 billion, according to estimates from the US Government and the International Energy Agency, a group representing the world’s main energy consumers. Russia’s earnings were helped by an overall rise in oil prices after the start of the war and by growing demand after pandemic lockdowns; those trends also benefited Western oil giants like ExxonMobil and Shell, which reported record profits for 2022. Russia also raked in $138 billion from natural gas, a nearly 80 percent rise over 2021 as record prices offset cuts in flows to Europe.

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Noah Diaz said:Last year, they pulled in $218 billion from oil sales, plus another $138 billion from gas. That brings the total to $356 billion. They aren't even struggling to make ends meet. 😁

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/b...l-embargo.html

For all of 2022, Russia managed to increase its oil output 2 percent and boost oil export earnings 20 percent, to $218 billion, according to estimates from the US Government and the International Energy Agency, a group representing the world’s main energy consumers. Russia’s earnings were helped by an overall rise in oil prices after the start of the war and by growing demand after pandemic lockdowns; those trends also benefited Western oil giants like ExxonMobil and Shell, which reported record profits for 2022. Russia also raked in $138 billion from natural gas, a nearly 80 percent rise over 2021 as record prices offset cuts in flows to Europe.

.

https://english.news.cn/20230111/059...ally%20planned.

And then they go and wrap up the year in a deficit anyway. So, I guess all that revenue just isn't cutting it?

To put it in terms of a household budget—or just basic common sense—it doesn't matter if you're bringing home $5,000 a month if you're blowing through $6,500. If you live like that, you're heading straight for a total wreck sooner or later.

They finished the year in the green, but let’s be real—December isn't the whole year. 😁

Noah Diaz said:Last year, they pulled in $218 billion from oil sales, plus another $138 billion from gas. That brings the total to $356 billion. They aren't even struggling to make ends meet. 😁

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/b...l-embargo.html

For all of 2022, Russia managed to increase its oil output 2 percent and boost oil export earnings 20 percent, to $218 billion, according to estimates from the US Government and the International Energy Agency, a group representing the world’s main energy consumers. Russia’s earnings were helped by an overall rise in oil prices after the start of the war and by growing demand after pandemic lockdowns; those trends also benefited Western oil giants like ExxonMobil and Shell, which reported record profits for 2022. Russia also raked in $138 billion from natural gas, a nearly 80 percent rise over 2021 as record prices offset cuts in flows to Europe.

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You’re blurring the line between revenue and actual profit here. You really think there aren't costs baked into that $356 billion? Oil doesn't just magically materialize at the docks. You have transport, you have sales, you have the extraction process itself. Then there's moving it thousands of miles to port, maintaining massive pipeline networks, paying workers, and the sheer cost of drilling the wells. It adds up.

Russia is one of the most expensive places on earth to produce oil, according to a recent analysis by Saudi Aramco.

The production cost per barrel of Brent crude sits at roughly $42 for Russian onshore projects and about $44 for offshore ventures.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/...mco-ipo-a68132
CAPEX and OPEX for Rosneft, Lukoil and Gazprom Neft come out to about $12 per barrel. Specifically, Rosneft is at $11.3, Lukoil USD 10.2 $ R Gazprom Neft USD 9.8. Add in Transneft transport costs averaging $4-$6, then toss in taxes hitting the budget at $10-$12 per barrel.
Add another $1-$2 for terminal fees and maybe $2-$6 if you're moving it via tanker.
https://biznesalert.com/russia-oil-e...cost-analysis/

What actually hits the Russian treasury are the taxes, which sit around 27-30%. That means Russia is likely seeing a net of roughly $118 billion. Everything else goes toward overhead and the profits of the oligarchs.

They were sitting on a roughly $40 billion deficit in December 2022, and by January 2023, they were still down about $20 billion. What part of that isn't clicking for you?