brightheron64 said:Please don't mistake my perspective for rooting for Russia, heavens no... the reality remains that the war is still being fought in Ukraine. Can we honestly expect that after a year of this and such heavy casualties, Putin will simply decide to "pack up and go home"?
Ultimately, I believe the whole point of sanctions is to disrupt things, cut off resources, and force the other side toward negotiations or compromises... but right now, I don't see any real path forward other than perhaps freezing the current situation and hoping for some kind of future diplomatic arrangement.
As for whether Ukraine can actually win on the battlefield, I have my doubts, to be perfectly honest. They might find success at the negotiating table—partly thanks to those very sanctions—but on the actual front lines... when does that happen?
Perhaps once the massive influx of Leopards, Abramovich tanks, and F-16s arrives, along with half a million perfectly trained soldiers...
Let's be realistic here; even if the Russians are only advancing one step per week, they are still the ones moving forward while others are retreating. I don't know how much longer people will foolishly keep throwing themselves into the meat grinder, but that grinder is spinning for both sides, and it doesn't care who is who.
If you take a closer look at what's happening (from any angle, really), this is basically our own Gallipoli...
But is that what we should expect from Ukrainians?
To just give up and bow down to Putin?
You have a point there; the losses on both sides have raised the stakes, and ambitions are much higher now than they were at the start.
Before February 24th, Zelenskyy might have been more open to trading Crimea or negotiating over Donbas. After the retreat around Kyiv, Putin probably would have been willing to strike a deal, but by then, too much Ukrainian blood had already been spilled for Zelenskyy to even consider it. Honestly, anyone in Ukraine would feel the same.
Because theoretically, Putin could survive a withdrawal or even a loss—he has enough power to just eliminate his political rivals if he needs to (and it looks like he’s already started).
But Ukraine is quite literally fighting for its survival. If the Russians win, we're looking at a level of genocide not seen since the Mongol conquests in the 13th century. The Holocaust would look like a bedtime story in comparison.
brightheron64 said:Please don't mistake my perspective for rooting for Russia, heavens no... the reality remains that the war is still being fought in Ukraine. Can we honestly expect that after a year of this and such heavy casualties, Putin will simply decide to "pack up and go home"?
Ultimately, I believe the whole point of sanctions is to disrupt things, cut off resources, and force the other side toward negotiations or compromises... but right now, I don't see any real path forward other than perhaps freezing the current situation and hoping for some kind of future diplomatic arrangement.
As for whether Ukraine can actually win on the battlefield, I have my doubts, to be perfectly honest. They might find success at the negotiating table—partly thanks to those very sanctions—but on the actual front lines... when does that happen?
Perhaps once the massive influx of Leopards, Abramovich tanks, and F-16s arrives, along with half a million perfectly trained soldiers...
Let's be realistic here; even if the Russians are only advancing one step per week, they are still the ones moving forward while others are retreating. I don't know how much longer people will foolishly keep throwing themselves into the meat grinder, but that grinder is spinning for both sides, and it doesn't care who is who.
If you take a closer look at what's happening (from any angle, really), this is basically our own Gallipoli...
Sanctions are also a form of political communication. The goal isn't always the same during every phase of their rollout.
For instance, at the very beginning, the message sent to Putin was simply, "this is going to cost you."
And they are introduced gradually specifically to give the other side a chance to rethink things.
Even the argument that "sanctions hurt us more than Putin" is intentional. It demonstrates resolve and a willingness to take a hit. People love to joke about how one person's misfortune doesn't affect them, but if you have 100 cows and your neighbor only has 10, losing two isn't exactly a tragedy for you.
Though, looking at the situation now, it seems both the EU and the rest of the Western world are adapting much better than the doomsday prophets predicted. Those "two cows" aren't going to be an issue.
But we also need to remember that we haven't even reached half of the potential sanctions yet. Honestly, I'm not sure we've even hit a third of what they could be.
Take Chinese companies, for example—some are refusing to work with Russia because they're terrified of secondary sanctions. Yet, nobody in the West has even mentioned secondary sanctions against China. ☕
So, all these sanctions, along with the military involvement from the USA and others, are still being handled with extreme caution...
Back in Vietnam, the Soviets were shooting down American B-52s and other planes, and Lyndon B. Johnson refused to authorize bombing Hanoi for years just so some "Soviet instructor" wouldn't accidentally get killed.
In Korea, Soviet pilots would regularly fly missions, shoot down American planes, and then simply zip back across the border to their bases.
So, what year did all those pilots in the USSR actually get their official medals and promotions based on these operations?
brightheron64 said:Please don't mistake my perspective for rooting for Russia, heavens no... the reality remains that the war is still being fought in Ukraine. Can we honestly expect that after a year of this and such heavy casualties, Putin will simply decide to "pack up and go home"?
Ultimately, I believe the whole point of sanctions is to disrupt things, cut off resources, and force the other side toward negotiations or compromises... but right now, I don't see any real path forward other than perhaps freezing the current situation and hoping for some kind of future diplomatic arrangement.
As for whether Ukraine can actually win on the battlefield, I have my doubts, to be perfectly honest. They might find success at the negotiating table—partly thanks to those very sanctions—but on the actual front lines... when does that happen?
Perhaps once the massive influx of Leopards, Abramovich tanks, and F-16s arrives, along with half a million perfectly trained soldiers...
Let's be realistic here; even if the Russians are only advancing one step per week, they are still the ones moving forward while others are retreating. I don't know how much longer people will foolishly keep throwing themselves into the meat grinder, but that grinder is spinning for both sides, and it doesn't care who is who.
If you take a closer look at what's happening (from any angle, really), this is basically our own Gallipoli...
And how did Gallipoli end up?
The side that was defending won, didn't they?
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