Sanctions on Russia

brightheron64 said:Every now and then, I get this nagging feeling that someone is playing a very dirty game with someone else, and it makes me feel like we really need to go back to Clausewitz and his famous idea that: "War is the continuation of politics by other means"...

A mysterious fleet is helping Russia ship oil around the world. And it’s growing!
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/b...eet/index.html

Safety is also a worry. The dark fleet is believed to have a large contingent of vessels older than 15 years, the age at which mainstream oil companies would typically retire them due to wear and tear. Now, more of these boats are making trips across the globe.

“You’ve got all these old vessels that are probably not being maintained to the standard they should be,” said Matthews of EA Gibson. “The likelihood of there being a major spill or accident is growing by the day as this fleet grows.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/b...eet/index.html

I can already see it happening—oil leaking from one of those tankers. Then, the USA swoops in with a "preventative operation" just to make sure no more spills occur.

An ecological operation. A green initiative. Painted in the color of dollars. 😁

The Russians will surely grumble about the imperialist West. Inches, feet, and yards—imperialism really is a nasty business, isn't it? 🤣

Look, the whole thing is pretty simple: the world still needs a certain amount of Russian oil, but they just don't want Russia making any money off it—that’s why this whole situation is being tolerated.

Nathan Evans78 said:

"They’re installing barbed wire fences, deploying drones, and setting up surveillance cameras. Europe is being fortified."

The narrative I keep hearing is that Russia is going to be completely leveled—economically decimated, stripped of their oil, buses stalling out because of sanctions, gas exports drying up, a massive brain drain, an aging population left behind, just a collection of failing states everywhere, and potential debt defaults. It's supposed to be total chaos, absolute lockdowns on everything... yet, somehow, they’re still busy building fences.

Is there something our leaders in the EU aren't telling us about future migration plans, or did someone just grease some palms to secure a massive government contract for fencing? Honestly, if Russians and Belarusians actually intended to stage a mass exodus, it wouldn't happen this way. For heaven's sake, migrants aren't just mindless kids wandering aimlessly; they have access to information and know exactly how to navigate the system. ☕

Lojza, damn it, I called you to explain the nonsense hollowdriver13 is posting and maybe give him a bit of a hard time, but now you're stuck cleaning up after this idiot. It's not right.

Christian Torres3 said:Look, the whole thing is pretty simple: the world still needs a certain amount of Russian oil, but they just don't want Russia making any money off it—that’s why this whole situation is being tolerated.

But isn't the entire point of those specific sanctions to make sure the Russians can't sell even a single drop?

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brightheron64 said:But isn't the entire point of those specific sanctions to make sure the Russians can't sell even a single drop?

No. The objective isn't total paralysis; it's to force the Russian Federation into a corner where they can still pump oil, but at razor-thin margins—effectively flooding the global market with cheap supply to crash prices. That serves the interests of the West perfectly right now. Putin could have dealt a far more devastating blow to the West if he had simply shut off every single gas and oil pipe immediately. But much like his hesitant entry into the war—refusing to just "crush the fields"—his foreign policy remains equally indecisive. He’s desperate to project some semblance of "international success" domestically to prove they aren't totally isolated from the world. In this game, Putin is playing from a significantly weaker hand, constantly reacting to events rather than driving them, which only deepens his weakness. By my estimation, it's too late for drastic shifts; the world has already adjusted to this reality. Such moves might have carried weight at the start, when he first realized he was drifting away from the West, but now, the window has likely slammed shut.

brightheron64 said:But isn't the entire point of those specific sanctions to make sure the Russians can't sell even a single drop?

Setting aside the fact that such total isolation would be practically impossible, that isn't actually the primary objective here.
The goal is to cripple the Russian economy as a direct consequence for their criminal aggression against Ukraine.
Sanctions align with the moral principles we claim to uphold; frankly, how can we continue to cooperate with people whose actions we find utterly reprehensible?

I mean, think about it—how can we condemn Putler for his crimes while everything remains business as usual on the economic front? It just doesn't add up!🤔

If we are already pouring significant resources into weapons and aid, then the logical next step is to use sanctions to intensify the pressure. We want to ensure Russia feels the strain and bleeds economically, which directly and indirectly benefits Ukraine.

lp

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Nancy Gomez26 said:subtitle : Quote

No. The objective isn't total paralysis; it's to force the Russian Federation into a corner where they can still pump oil, but at razor-thin margins—effectively flooding the global market with cheap supply to crash prices. That serves the interests of the West perfectly right now. Putin could have dealt a far more devastating blow to the West if he had simply shut off every single gas and oil pipe immediately. But much like his hesitant entry into the war—refusing to just "crush the fields"—his foreign policy remains equally indecisive. He’s desperate to project some semblance of "international success" domestically to prove they aren't totally isolated from the world. In this game, Putin is playing from a significantly weaker hand, constantly reacting to events rather than driving them, which only deepens his weakness. By my estimation, it's too late for drastic shifts; the world has already adjusted to this reality. Such moves might have carried weight at the start, when he first realized he was drifting away from the West, but now, the window has likely slammed shut.

You really think so?

To be honest, I'm just not sure... I mean, does anyone actually know what a barrel costs straight out of a cracking unit these days?

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Bryan Booth82 said:Setting aside the fact that such total isolation would be practically impossible, that isn't actually the primary objective here.
The goal is to cripple the Russian economy as a direct consequence for their criminal aggression against Ukraine.
Sanctions align with the moral principles we claim to uphold; frankly, how can we continue to cooperate with people whose actions we find utterly reprehensible?

I mean, think about it—how can we condemn Putler for his crimes while everything remains business as usual on the economic front? It just doesn't add up!🤔

If we are already pouring significant resources into weapons and aid, then the logical next step is to use sanctions to intensify the pressure. We want to ensure Russia feels the strain and bleeds economically, which directly and indirectly benefits Ukraine.

lp

It "doesn't work"? That's a bit of an oversimplification, don't you think?

The real mess is that this Russia is bleeding cheap oil and gas... while most of the rest of the world acts like a pack of vampires, licking their lips and shouting for more. Those "mysterious tankers" didn't just materialize out of thin air in the Bermuda Triangle.

The heart of the matter is finding that breaking point—that specific threshold where it becomes unprofitable for the Russians to sell their oil at all. But I suspect hitting a "bottomless pit" scenario is going to be incredibly difficult because we have plenty of allies who aren't interested in that outcome. If we set aside the Arabs and just look at the Britons and Norwegians... could you even imagine oil dropping to $20 a barrel? The odds are slim, to say the least...

It reminds me of how Sweden used to maintain its neutrality, yet Hitler was able to build a massive chunk of his war machine using Swedish iron (not to mention the oil, but let's not go there).

brightheron64 said:subtitle : Quote

You really think so?

To be honest, I'm just not sure... I mean, does anyone actually know what a barrel costs straight out of a cracking unit these days?

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It "doesn't work"? That's a bit of an oversimplification, don't you think?

The real mess is that this Russia is bleeding cheap oil and gas... while most of the rest of the world acts like a pack of vampires, licking their lips and shouting for more. Those "mysterious tankers" didn't just materialize out of thin air in the Bermuda Triangle.

The heart of the matter is finding that breaking point—that specific threshold where it becomes unprofitable for the Russians to sell their oil at all. But I suspect hitting a "bottomless pit" scenario is going to be incredibly difficult because we have plenty of allies who aren't interested in that outcome. If we set aside the Arabs and just look at the Britons and Norwegians... could you even imagine oil dropping to $20 a barrel? The odds are slim, to say the least...

It reminds me of how Sweden used to maintain its neutrality, yet Hitler was able to build a massive chunk of his war machine using Swedish iron (not to mention the oil, but let's not go there).

Russia doesn't have a diversified economy; for the most part, it's almost entirely built on cranking out energy resources.
I don't think I even need to spell this out: cutting off gas sales to the West—at the massive volumes they were pumping before the aggression started—cannot simply be replaced by selling it somewhere else. It's not a one-for-one swap.
Furthermore, when the West limits the sale of oil and petroleum products, Russia's profit margins take a direct hit.

As for the other sanctions, they mostly have a symbolic, albeit necessary, impact on the economy and society... especially since, more often than not, they end up hitting Russia harder than they hit the West.

The true "breaking point" will be found on the front lines in Ukraine, and the sanctions—alongside the delivery of weapons—are exactly what will help push things toward that moment.

lp

brightheron64 said:subtitle : Quote

You really think so?

To be honest, I'm just not sure... I mean, does anyone actually know what a barrel costs straight out of a cracking unit these days?

subtitle : Quote

It "doesn't work"? That's a bit of an oversimplification, don't you think?

The real mess is that this Russia is bleeding cheap oil and gas... while most of the rest of the world acts like a pack of vampires, licking their lips and shouting for more. Those "mysterious tankers" didn't just materialize out of thin air in the Bermuda Triangle.

The heart of the matter is finding that breaking point—that specific threshold where it becomes unprofitable for the Russians to sell their oil at all. But I suspect hitting a "bottomless pit" scenario is going to be incredibly difficult because we have plenty of allies who aren't interested in that outcome. If we set aside the Arabs and just look at the Britons and Norwegians... could you even imagine oil dropping to $20 a barrel? The odds are slim, to say the least...

It reminds me of how Sweden used to maintain its neutrality, yet Hitler was able to build a massive chunk of his war machine using Swedish iron (not to mention the oil, but let's not go there).

You meant this: fracking?

Bryan Booth82 As if I haven't heard this all before...
When the West starts slapping restrictions on oil sales and all those petroleum-based products, it’s pretty clear that Russia's revenue is going to take a significant hit too...

If global oil prices take a dive, everyone loses—from our friends in the Middle East right down to those massive Norwegian sovereign wealth funds... And honestly, I find it hard to believe that anyone would be willing to foot a much higher bill just to pay double what we’re paying to the Russians, simply out of some sense of moral high ground or altruism...

Bryan Booth82 said:Russia doesn't have a diversified economy; for the most part, it's almost entirely built on cranking out energy resources.
I don't think I even need to spell this out: cutting off gas sales to the West—at the massive volumes they were pumping before the aggression started—cannot simply be replaced by selling it somewhere else. It's not a one-for-one swap.
Furthermore, when the West limits the sale of oil and petroleum products, Russia's profit margins take a direct hit.

As for the other sanctions, they mostly have a symbolic, albeit necessary, impact on the economy and society... especially since, more often than not, they end up hitting Russia harder than they hit the West.

The true "breaking point" will be found on the front lines in Ukraine, and the sanctions—alongside the delivery of weapons—are exactly what will help push things toward that moment.

lp

That’s really all there is to say...
I can't help but worry that this whole situation might drag on much longer than any of us are prepared for. Right now, it feels like we’re just stuck in this endless cycle of trying to outlast one another, seeing who can hold their ground the longest... but at the end of the day, it always seems to settle in the exact same way. Whether you're sitting at the negotiating table or just waiting out the clock in a train car, the result remains unchanged...

Nancy Gomez26 said:You meant this: fracking?

Yeah... 🙈

Well, there it is... apparently, they're saying the break-even point is sitting right around $30 a barrel...

brightheron64 said:

Bryan Booth82 As if I haven't heard this all before...
When the West starts slapping restrictions on oil sales and all those petroleum-based products, it’s pretty clear that Russia's revenue is going to take a significant hit too...

If global oil prices take a dive, everyone loses—from our friends in the Middle East right down to those massive Norwegian sovereign wealth funds... And honestly, I find it hard to believe that anyone would be willing to foot a much higher bill just to pay double what we’re paying to the Russians, simply out of some sense of moral high ground or altruism...

That’s really all there is to say...
I can't help but worry that this whole situation might drag on much longer than any of us are prepared for. Right now, it feels like we’re just stuck in this endless cycle of trying to outlast one another, seeing who can hold their ground the longest... but at the end of the day, it always seems to settle in the exact same way. Whether you're sitting at the negotiating table or just waiting out the clock in a train car, the result remains unchanged...

Yeah... 🙈

Well, there it is... apparently, they're saying the break-even point is sitting right around $30 a barrel...

...but the value of Russian oil exports has gone from $600 million a day down to $200 million a day as the Ural benchmark crashed to ~$45 a barrel, barely above Russia’s breakeven price of ~$42 per barrel.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune...feld-tian/amp/

Everyone's got an opinion, but look at this. Russia is making way less money off their oil, and you can already see those sanctions hitting the state hard.

brightheron64 said:But isn't the entire point of those specific sanctions to make sure the Russians can't sell even a single drop?

🙏

brightheron64, you are really just selling people a pipe dream here 🤣

brightheron64 said:

Bryan Booth82 As if I haven't heard this all before...
When the West starts slapping restrictions on oil sales and all those petroleum-based products, it’s pretty clear that Russia's revenue is going to take a significant hit too...

If global oil prices take a dive, everyone loses—from our friends in the Middle East right down to those massive Norwegian sovereign wealth funds... And honestly, I find it hard to believe that anyone would be willing to foot a much higher bill just to pay double what we’re paying to the Russians, simply out of some sense of moral high ground or altruism...

That’s really all there is to say...
I can't help but worry that this whole situation might drag on much longer than any of us are prepared for. Right now, it feels like we’re just stuck in this endless cycle of trying to outlast one another, seeing who can hold their ground the longest... but at the end of the day, it always seems to settle in the exact same way. Whether you're sitting at the negotiating table or just waiting out the clock in a train car, the result remains unchanged...

Yeah... 🙈

Well, there it is... apparently, they're saying the break-even point is sitting right around $30 a barrel...

I don't deal in oil, and frankly, I probably shouldn't be weighing in on a subject where I lack expertise. But from what I've gathered through various readings, fracking isn't exactly a long-term solution. These types of deposits tend to run dry much faster than initial projections suggest, and the process itself is incredibly expensive compared to traditional drilling where the crude flows naturally. Then there's the environmental toll, which is impossible to quantify accurately—local communities near these sites often find their drinking water supplies rendered useless. It’s a relatively new technology, and clearly, there are still too many unknowns. It might ultimately prove to be more of a hype cycle than a sustainable reality.

If oil prices drop to $45 a barrel or even lower, making Russian oil production profitable becomes a massive uphill battle. Long-term, we're looking at a inevitable squeeze on their production levels—which, if you look at the numbers, is already starting to happen, seeing a 5% dip back in March 2023. Plus, there's the whole issue of Western tech and specialized energy experts being cut off; without those spare parts and expert hands, their ability to pump fuel is going to tank. Ultimately, we’re going to see this double whammy of lower prices and lower volume hitting their oil and gas sectors, which really limits their capacity to fund an aggressive war in Ukraine. Sanctions don't always hit like a sledgehammer right out of the gate; they work more like a slow burn over time. If you want a real pulse check on whether these sanctions are actually working, just take a close look at the Russian budget revenues versus their spending.

Christian Torres3 said:...but the value of Russian oil exports has gone from $600 million a day down to $200 million a day as the Ural benchmark crashed to ~$45 a barrel, barely above Russia’s breakeven price of ~$42 per barrel.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune...feld-tian/amp/

Everyone's got an opinion, but look at this. Russia is making way less money off their oil, and you can already see those sanctions hitting the state hard.

It reminds me of that old joke about someone selling goods at a flea market—a thief swoops in and steals a leather jacket.
The seller calls out to the guy:
- My leather jacket is gone!
- How much was it worth?
- Just what I paid for it...

Regardless of how you look at it, I am firmly convinced that when you weigh the effort against the reward, they are still pulling in more from oil than you or I ever could through our daily grind (and that's not even mentioning the average Russian citizen)...

gentlebadger said:If oil prices drop to $45 a barrel or even lower, making Russian oil production profitable becomes a massive uphill battle. Long-term, we're looking at a inevitable squeeze on their production levels—which, if you look at the numbers, is already starting to happen, seeing a 5% dip back in March 2023. Plus, there's the whole issue of Western tech and specialized energy experts being cut off; without those spare parts and expert hands, their ability to pump fuel is going to tank. Ultimately, we’re going to see this double whammy of lower prices and lower volume hitting their oil and gas sectors, which really limits their capacity to fund an aggressive war in Ukraine. Sanctions don't always hit like a sledgehammer right out of the gate; they work more like a slow burn over time. If you want a real pulse check on whether these sanctions are actually working, just take a close look at the Russian budget revenues versus their spending.

I agree with all five points.

The real question is simply where the breaking point lies for the Russians, and whether other major oil producers will allow that threshold to be reached...
As for those claiming that Russian oil won't find any buyers at all because of "global" sanctions, let's not waste our breath on that nonsense...

brightheron64 said:It reminds me of that old joke about someone selling goods at a flea market—a thief swoops in and steals a leather jacket.
The seller calls out to the guy:
- My leather jacket is gone!
- How much was it worth?
- Just what I paid for it...

Regardless of how you look at it, I am firmly convinced that when you weigh the effort against the reward, they are still pulling in more from oil than you or I ever could through our daily grind (and that's not even mentioning the average Russian citizen)...

I agree with all five points.

The real question is simply where the breaking point lies for the Russians, and whether other major oil producers will allow that threshold to be reached...
As for those claiming that Russian oil won't find any buyers at all because of "global" sanctions, let's not waste our breath on that nonsense...

Total pointlessness. The bottom line is Putin won't be able to fund this war this way, and that's all that matters.

brightheron64 said:It reminds me of that old joke about someone selling goods at a flea market—a thief swoops in and steals a leather jacket.
The seller calls out to the guy:
- My leather jacket is gone!
- How much was it worth?
- Just what I paid for it...

Regardless of how you look at it, I am firmly convinced that when you weigh the effort against the reward, they are still pulling in more from oil than you or I ever could through our daily grind (and that's not even mentioning the average Russian citizen)...

I agree with all five points.

The real question is simply where the breaking point lies for the Russians, and whether other major oil producers will allow that threshold to be reached...
As for those claiming that Russian oil won't find any buyers at all because of "global" sanctions, let's not waste our breath on that nonsense...

We can argue about it all day, but that massive deficit in the Russian budget is definitely something to smile about.☕
Their economy is shrinking, and it’s obvious they’ll end up with their tails between their legs.
Whether they collapse in two years or five doesn't really matter—the point is they're headed straight for it.

brightheron64 said:

Bryan Booth82 As if I haven't heard this all before...
When the West starts slapping restrictions on oil sales and all those petroleum-based products, it’s pretty clear that Russia's revenue is going to take a significant hit too...

If global oil prices take a dive, everyone loses—from our friends in the Middle East right down to those massive Norwegian sovereign wealth funds... And honestly, I find it hard to believe that anyone would be willing to foot a much higher bill just to pay double what we’re paying to the Russians, simply out of some sense of moral high ground or altruism...

That’s really all there is to say...
I can't help but worry that this whole situation might drag on much longer than any of us are prepared for. Right now, it feels like we’re just stuck in this endless cycle of trying to outlast one another, seeing who can hold their ground the longest... but at the end of the day, it always seems to settle in the exact same way. Whether you're sitting at the negotiating table or just waiting out the clock in a train car, the result remains unchanged...

Yeah... 🙈

Well, there it is... apparently, they're saying the break-even point is sitting right around $30 a barrel...

Uncertainty is poison for the global economy. This war is driving uncertainty through the roof, which means the sooner this conflict reaches its conclusion, the lower that instability will be. Lower instability leads to economic growth, and economic growth inevitably drives up oil demand... higher demand, higher prices. It's a simple chain reaction.

Inter is making it clear: we need to bring this war to an end as quickly as possible—regardless of how that happens—and that can only happen if Ukraine wins. Any other scenario doesn't actually mean the war is over.
Russia lost this war a long time ago; we just need to finish it.
lp

Nathan Thomas12 said:We can argue about it all day, but that massive deficit in the Russian budget is definitely something to smile about.☕
Their economy is shrinking, and it’s obvious they’ll end up with their tails between their legs.
Whether they collapse in two years or five doesn't really matter—the point is they're headed straight for it.

That's fine, but will there even be a Ukraine left in five years? ☕

It feels like reading a wish list of pleasantries that have absolutely nothing to do with what’s actually happening on the ground. 😁

By the way:

Furthermore, analysts suggest that the shadow fleet might be helping Russia dodge sanctions or sell their oil above the price cap. It’s also becoming increasingly difficult to track where those Russian barrels are actually heading. Experts have uncovered evidence in customs data showing that Ural oil, the Russian benchmark, is being sold at key ports for significantly more than official prices would suggest.