Sanctions on Russia

Everything in the headline. Shocking twist! Huge surprise! Exclusive news and all that—honestly, don't even bother opening this, because 99% of it is just total nonsense.

Noah Diaz said:A $60 cap is nothing more than a fantasy on paper. It’s an open secret that Russian oil is trading north of $70 a barrel.

If we apply a bit of actual logic here, why would anyone hand $70 to Russia when they’re under sanctions and essentially being squeezed by the West? It's pretty simple: a Chinese buyer can just pick up oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UK, or Nigeria, whereas Russia is stuck trying to offload its supply to China or India at massive discounts just to stay afloat.

Unfortunately, sanctions just aren't cutting it when it comes to stopping Russia in the near future.

The only kind of sanctions that might actually move the needle are those targeting the high-end tech needed for their weaponry. Their modern gear is built around advanced chips that—let's be real—only a partnership between the USA, South Korea, the Netherlands, and Japan can actually produce. Trying to redesign everything to fit the chips coming out of China? That’s a total dead end for Russia... you can't just overhaul an entire military concept mid-war when it takes years to adapt to new hardware. It's just not happening.

But here's the real kicker with sanctions: how effective they actually are once they hit the ground. Everything hinges on whether we can expose and shut down the black market. There's already word that since the start of the Ukraine war, demand for hardware with advanced chips has spiked in Eastern markets—which is weird, right? You'd think demand would drop if the Russian market was cut off. Fighting the black market is a massive, unpredictable headache, and meanwhile, the war in Ukraine just keeps sucking up every available resource on a daily basis.
Any plan that treats sanctions as the silver bullet to stop the Russians isn't going anywhere unless you're prepared for a grueling game of attrition that lasts for years—a game that costs billions of dollars and, worst of all for any politician, leads to losing public interest
. Once people stop caring, politicians lose their support at the polls because they're spending money on stuff the voters don't give a damn about.

I really wish I could see a way out of this mess where we don't all end up suffering, but honestly... I just don't see one. Sooner rather than later, the West is going to have to face the very thing it's trying so hard to avoid: a direct confrontation with Russia using every tool at its disposal. And that means facing every desperate move Russia makes, regardless of what it does to humanity...

Jacob Cooper5 As I was saying:
Unfortunately, I just don't think the sanctions are doing enough to actually stop Russia. In the very near future!.

If we want to actually make an impact, the only way to go is hitting them where it hurts: high-tech sanctions on their weaponry. Their modern arsenal relies entirely on advanced chips that basically only a partnership between the USA, South Korea, the Netherlands, and Japan can produce. You can't just flip a switch and redesign everything to run on Chinese-made chips; it’s simply not worth it for Russia. Trying to overhaul an entire military concept mid-war would take years of painstaking adjustments. Honestly? That path is a total dead end.

The real headache with sanctions isn't the laws themselves—it's actually getting them to work. Everything hinges on how effectively we can expose and shut down black markets. Honestly, it feels like a game of whack-a-mole. I’ve been reading reports suggesting that since the start of the Ukraine war, demand for high-end hardware and advanced chips in Eastern markets has actually spiked. You would think that losing access to the Russian market would cause demand to dip, right? It just doesn't follow that logic. Trying to crack down on these underground networks is such an uphill battle, especially when the ongoing conflict in Ukraine keeps draining resources and swallowing up every opportunity we have to get things under control.
Relying solely on sanctions to stop the Russians just isn't going to cut it unless you're fully prepared for a massive game of attrition. We’re talking about a marathon that could drag on for years, costing trillions of dollars. Honestly, that's the absolute worst-case scenario for any administration. It feels like everyone’s just tuning out lately. You know that feeling when you’re mid-sentence and realize nobody is actually listening anymore? That’s exactly what we’re seeing with the public right now. People are losing interest, plain and simple. It’s like the collective attention span has just evaporated! I was grabbing coffee downtown the other day, trying to strike up a conversation about the news, and honestly, most people were just staring blankfully at their phones. We’re hitting this massive wall of apathy, and it’s pretty fascinating—if a bit unsettling—to watch.
Once the public stops paying attention, that’s when the government really starts to sweat. If they keep pouring taxpayer money into things people couldn't care less about, they can kiss their support at the next election goodbye!

I really wish I could spot a way out of this mess where we all come out unscathed, but honestly, I just don't see one. Sooner rather than later, the West is going to be forced into the very thing it’s been trying so hard to dodge: a direct confrontation with Russia using every resource at our disposal. That means facing down any desperate move the Russians might make, regardless of how much it puts the whole world at risk.

Moving over to the other thread! I was just quoting this:

Back in November, the USA rolled out some pretty sweeping export restrictions on our chip-making equipment headed toward China. But here’s the thing: for these rules to actually hold water, we need the major players in the Netherlands and Japan to get on board too, since they hold the keys to that essential chip-making tech. Our allies have been locked in negotiations over this for months now. It’s a massive diplomatic puzzle!

The Dutch Trade Minister, Elizabeth Warren, just dropped a bombshell in a letter to Parliament: expect new restrictions to kick in before summer hits. She was careful not to explicitly call out China—which is obviously a massive trading partner for the US—nor did she name Intel, the tech giant that supplies almost everyone in the semiconductor game. But let’s be real, we all know exactly who she's talking about!

Because the Netherlands believes that tightening oversight on this technology is absolutely vital for national security, the government is rolling out a new national control list, according to a recent letter.

Intel just released an update regarding their export controls, and it’s actually quite reassuring! They mentioned that they'll likely need to apply for special licenses to export their most advanced DUV machinery, but here’s the kicker: they don't expect this to mess with their financial guidance for 2023 at all. It’s always a relief when a major player stays so steady despite all the regulatory shifts we're seeing lately!

Intel absolutely dominates the lithography market. We’re talking about massive, multi-million dollar machines that use high-powered lasers to etch those incredibly tiny circuits onto computer chips. It’s honestly mind-blowing how precise this tech has to be!

Intel has never actually sold their most advanced "EUV" machines to buyers in China. In fact, most of their "DUV" sales to that region go toward much less sophisticated chip manufacturers.

Their biggest clients over in South Korea, companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, have massive manufacturing hubs right there in China.

That report from the Netherlands leaves some huge questions hanging in the air—specifically, whether Intel will even be able to service the over $8 billion worth of DUV machines they've sold to Chinese buyers since 2014.

As time ticks by, it's becoming clear that Russia is running out of options.

The sanctions are absolutely crushing them, their energy deficit is widening, and they just don't have access to modern tech anymore.

I'm honestly just sitting here waiting for some political rivals to emerge who are actually more serious than Putin's favorite host (Prigozhin), and who won't end up with "sudden health issues" after having a quick cup of tea with Putin (Kadyrov). 😁

goldenorca11 said:

Jacob Cooper5 As I was saying:
Unfortunately, I just don't think the sanctions are doing enough to actually stop Russia. In the very near future!.

If we want to actually make an impact, the only way to go is hitting them where it hurts: high-tech sanctions on their weaponry. Their modern arsenal relies entirely on advanced chips that basically only a partnership between the USA, South Korea, the Netherlands, and Japan can produce. You can't just flip a switch and redesign everything to run on Chinese-made chips; it’s simply not worth it for Russia. Trying to overhaul an entire military concept mid-war would take years of painstaking adjustments. Honestly? That path is a total dead end.

The real headache with sanctions isn't the laws themselves—it's actually getting them to work. Everything hinges on how effectively we can expose and shut down black markets. Honestly, it feels like a game of whack-a-mole. I’ve been reading reports suggesting that since the start of the Ukraine war, demand for high-end hardware and advanced chips in Eastern markets has actually spiked. You would think that losing access to the Russian market would cause demand to dip, right? It just doesn't follow that logic. Trying to crack down on these underground networks is such an uphill battle, especially when the ongoing conflict in Ukraine keeps draining resources and swallowing up every opportunity we have to get things under control.
Relying solely on sanctions to stop the Russians just isn't going to cut it unless you're fully prepared for a massive game of attrition. We’re talking about a marathon that could drag on for years, costing trillions of dollars. Honestly, that's the absolute worst-case scenario for any administration. It feels like everyone’s just tuning out lately. You know that feeling when you’re mid-sentence and realize nobody is actually listening anymore? That’s exactly what we’re seeing with the public right now. People are losing interest, plain and simple. It’s like the collective attention span has just evaporated! I was grabbing coffee downtown the other day, trying to strike up a conversation about the news, and honestly, most people were just staring blankfully at their phones. We’re hitting this massive wall of apathy, and it’s pretty fascinating—if a bit unsettling—to watch.
Once the public stops paying attention, that’s when the government really starts to sweat. If they keep pouring taxpayer money into things people couldn't care less about, they can kiss their support at the next election goodbye!

I really wish I could spot a way out of this mess where we all come out unscathed, but honestly, I just don't see one. Sooner rather than later, the West is going to be forced into the very thing it’s been trying so hard to dodge: a direct confrontation with Russia using every resource at our disposal. That means facing down any desperate move the Russians might make, regardless of how much it puts the whole world at risk.

Moving over to the other thread! I was just quoting this:

Back in November, the USA rolled out some pretty sweeping export restrictions on our chip-making equipment headed toward China. But here’s the thing: for these rules to actually hold water, we need the major players in the Netherlands and Japan to get on board too, since they hold the keys to that essential chip-making tech. Our allies have been locked in negotiations over this for months now. It’s a massive diplomatic puzzle!

The Dutch Trade Minister, Elizabeth Warren, just dropped a bombshell in a letter to Parliament: expect new restrictions to kick in before summer hits. She was careful not to explicitly call out China—which is obviously a massive trading partner for the US—nor did she name Intel, the tech giant that supplies almost everyone in the semiconductor game. But let’s be real, we all know exactly who she's talking about!

Because the Netherlands believes that tightening oversight on this technology is absolutely vital for national security, the government is rolling out a new national control list, according to a recent letter.

Intel just released an update regarding their export controls, and it’s actually quite reassuring! They mentioned that they'll likely need to apply for special licenses to export their most advanced DUV machinery, but here’s the kicker: they don't expect this to mess with their financial guidance for 2023 at all. It’s always a relief when a major player stays so steady despite all the regulatory shifts we're seeing lately!

Intel absolutely dominates the lithography market. We’re talking about massive, multi-million dollar machines that use high-powered lasers to etch those incredibly tiny circuits onto computer chips. It’s honestly mind-blowing how precise this tech has to be!

Intel has never actually sold their most advanced "EUV" machines to buyers in China. In fact, most of their "DUV" sales to that region go toward much less sophisticated chip manufacturers.

Their biggest clients over in South Korea, companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, have massive manufacturing hubs right there in China.

That report from the Netherlands leaves some huge questions hanging in the air—specifically, whether Intel will even be able to service the over $8 billion worth of DUV machines they've sold to Chinese buyers since 2014.

As time ticks by, it's becoming clear that Russia is running out of options.

The sanctions are absolutely crushing them, their energy deficit is widening, and they just don't have access to modern tech anymore.

I'm honestly just sitting here waiting for some political rivals to emerge who are actually more serious than Putin's favorite host (Prigozhin), and who won't end up with "sudden health issues" after having a quick cup of tea with Putin (Kadyrov). 😁

I'm honestly not sure if you even read what I wrote, because you didn't address a single one of my points.
You quoted that Dutch company claiming they haven't been selling their machines to China.
First off, those Dutch machines are just one tiny piece of the puzzle when it comes to manufacturing advanced chips. Without all the other components, you've got nothing.
That whole statement is really about the tech war between China and the USA—basically about handing over a crucial component to American chipmakers. Even if they *were* selling them those machines, it still wouldn't mean they could suddenly churn out advanced chips on their own.

But my point isn't actually about that—it's about trade and the black market, which is notoriously difficult, if not impossible, to police.
Look, I'm assuming you realize that every single smartphone is packed with high-end chips used in military tech. If you don't get that, then maybe it's time to wrap your head around the fact that a million iPhones imported into China could very well translate into Russian battlefield superiority in the Ukraine war.

John Ramos45 said:If we apply a bit of actual logic here, why would anyone hand $70 to Russia when they’re under sanctions and essentially being squeezed by the West? It's pretty simple: a Chinese buyer can just pick up oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UK, or Nigeria, whereas Russia is stuck trying to offload its supply to China or India at massive discounts just to stay afloat.

It is quite simple, really—it is because the Chinese have far more affinity for Russia than these self-proclaimed armchair economists on this forum ever will.

John Ramos45 said:If we apply a bit of actual logic here, why would anyone hand $70 to Russia when they’re under sanctions and essentially being squeezed by the West? It's pretty simple: a Chinese buyer can just pick up oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UK, or Nigeria, whereas Russia is stuck trying to offload its supply to China or India at massive discounts just to stay afloat.

Maybe because $70 is less than $80? Honestly, a Chinese buyer would sell their own family for a single dollar in savings—just look at how people shop on sites like AliExpress, Wish, or Temu. To them, a "deal" is finding a way to save a measly five cents.

John Ramos45 said:If we apply a bit of actual logic here, why would anyone hand $70 to Russia when they’re under sanctions and essentially being squeezed by the West? It's pretty simple: a Chinese buyer can just pick up oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UK, or Nigeria, whereas Russia is stuck trying to offload its supply to China or India at massive discounts just to stay afloat.

Then why wouldn't Americans or Arabs charge Europe $150 when they hold all the cards? There's your logic right there... tell me how that works.

John Ramos45 said:If we apply a bit of actual logic here, why would anyone hand $70 to Russia when they’re under sanctions and essentially being squeezed by the West? It's pretty simple: a Chinese buyer can just pick up oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UK, or Nigeria, whereas Russia is stuck trying to offload its supply to China or India at massive discounts just to stay afloat.

Everyone else is paying somewhere around $80, while Russians are sitting at $70. You’d have to be incredibly foolish to choose expensive oil over the cheaper Russian stuff.

Only those within the Bureaucracy could be that dense. They seem to have a passion for buying the most expensive options just to kill their own competitiveness on the global market.

At the end of the day, the logical conclusion is simple: the sanctions are working. 😵

Noah Diaz said:Everyone else is paying somewhere around $80, while Russians are sitting at $70. You’d have to be incredibly foolish to choose expensive oil over the cheaper Russian stuff.

Only those within the Bureaucracy could be that dense. They seem to have a passion for buying the most expensive options just to kill their own competitiveness on the global market.

At the end of the day, the logical conclusion is simple: the sanctions are working. 😵

We can talk in circles until we're blue in the face, but the only metric that matters is how much cash Russia is actually making from oil sales.
Their revenue has tanked by 40% so far, and honestly, nothing else matters.
Some keyboard Kremlin troll can claim they're selling oil for $100 a barrel, but if the total revenue is down 40%, the math doesn't lie.
#sanctionswork

I’m going to try to make my point one more time, since apparently, it hasn't sunk in yet. No one ever implements sanctions with the intention of causing an overnight collapse. That isn't how this works. Sanctions are designed as a slow grind, meant to gradually erode the economic and financial backbone of the target nation.

Yet, everyone stays fixated on oil. Nobody talks about gas. And nobody mentions the fact that virtually no major corporation wants anything to do with Russia anymore. Not a single serious financial institution is willing to take the risk.
What about all those massive Western corporations that pulled out of the Russian market entirely? Sure, maybe they were replaced by some budget knock-off version of McDonald's or Coca-Cola. But take a good, long look at the actual list of companies that exited the Russian market, then come back and tell me you don't feel the impact.

There’s a very good reason why so many of Russia's economic indicators have suddenly vanished from the public record. Honestly, the data they *do* choose to release—things like real GDP growth—is almost certainly being cooked to look better than it actually is. Even worse? The proxy variables we used to rely on to make our own educated guesses are no longer publicly available. It’s getting harder to see through the smoke. All those rosy forecasts predicting minimal GDP shrinkage in 2023? Pure fantasy. I mean, think about it—no country could realistically absorb a loss of a million people—between emigration and casualties—and still function normally. Especially when you factor in falling energy prices, heavy sanctions, and the massive exodus of major corporations. It’s all going to come crashing down eventually, and the Russian economy is headed straight back to those chaotic, disastrous days of the 90s.

Anthony Jones15 said:I’m going to try to make my point one more time, since apparently, it hasn't sunk in yet. No one ever implements sanctions with the intention of causing an overnight collapse. That isn't how this works. Sanctions are designed as a slow grind, meant to gradually erode the economic and financial backbone of the target nation.

Yet, everyone stays fixated on oil. Nobody talks about gas. And nobody mentions the fact that virtually no major corporation wants anything to do with Russia anymore. Not a single serious financial institution is willing to take the risk.
What about all those massive Western corporations that pulled out of the Russian market entirely? Sure, maybe they were replaced by some budget knock-off version of McDonald's or Coca-Cola. But take a good, long look at the actual list of companies that exited the Russian market, then come back and tell me you don't feel the impact.

Sure, energy costs in Western Europe have spiked, but you know there will be deals made behind closed doors to handle that.
Maybe this whole mess will actually be the push we need to finally break free from fossil fuels. A weird, accidental byproduct of chaos that ends up benefiting humanity in the long run!?
I know the situation is absolute garbage and it feels like we're backed into a corner. But even then, I still hold onto this hope that even after the worst-case scenario plays out, we'll still find ways to pull together under a shared interest...

Look, there is a massive difference between legally transporting oil and just dumping it illegally in some random bay! It’s a completely different ballgame. Here is a quick breakdown regarding the smuggling of oil and diesel, which has recently come under heavy sanctions:

Russian oil companies are hitting major roadblocks trying to export diesel. Ever since February, they've been facing both the European Union embargo and those price caps imposed by the G7 countries.
As of March 5th, roughly 4.4 million barrels of diesel are effectively stuck out at sea, trapped inside vessels that have been converted into floating storage units.

https://twitter.com/KingDalmatia/sta...988299266?s=20

Forbes Sanctions on Russia still Aren’t Working

I suppose everything the USA and the West have actually managed to achieve through these sanctions boils down to this:

- strengthening Putin's standing at home.
- boosting Putin's global reputation while uniting Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others in a shared effort to dismantle the petrodollar.
- crippling the German economy by cutting off the cheap energy its industries once relied on.
- essentially undermining the strength of the entire EU by eroding Germany's economic backbone.
- and perhaps most significantly, the USA may have inadvertently surrendered its status as the sole global hegemon, paving the way for a multipolar world with multiple centers of power.

Mark Carter14 said:Poor Americans... blaming Russia for empty grocery shelves when they won't even send over the fertilizer needed for production. 🤣

Have sanctions REALLY wrecked life in Russia? While supermarkets in the UK are handing out eggs and veggies—partly thanks to Putin's war in Ukraine—police in some small Russian town are practically struggling under piles of fresh food, according to the Sue Reid Quote.

...
Actually, these scenes are a total reversal from 40 years ago, back when most of us watched those depressing news clips of Russians under the Communist regime waiting in lines just to get bread and eggs.

Now it's the UK's turn to deal with the fallout. Local supermarkets here are rationing tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, and lettuce because farmers in the United Kingdom are battling massive energy costs, making it impossible to run greenhouses during the winter. Even soft fruits, like raspberries, are becoming hard to find on the shelves.

Tony Montalbano, the director of Green Acre Salads in Roydon, Essex, usually pumps out a million kilograms of baby cucumbers a year, but his greenhouses sat empty last month.

He had to put off his planting just to dodge fuel bills that could spike up to £500,000 a month this winter. He’s expecting his total output to drop by half this year.

"It's sad and frustrating, but I just can't afford to grow," he said. "I have to make money. If I don't, there's no point in continuing. A lot of growers are just shutting their doors and selling out."
...
'

When I look at photos from the UK and then compare them to photos from Russia, it feels like I've stepped into the Twilight Zone. 😲

If anyone had predicted this thirty or forty years ago, people would have thought they were insane. 🤣

Journalists are full of it. Speaking from firsthand experience, they lie because it's easy to show up at Walmart right before closing time on a Friday or Saturday and photograph some empty shelves. No shit they'll be empty.

But you show up at a different time of day and everything is fully stocked. 😉 I've been working in the field in the UK for about a year now, and while things occasionally look like this, it only happens right before the end of the shift. On most other days and during regular hours, the shelves are packed at Walmart, Target, Tesco, or Aldi. 😉

Noah Diaz said:A $60 cap is nothing more than a fantasy on paper. It’s an open secret that Russian oil is trading north of $70 a barrel.

Noah Diaz said:Everyone else is paying somewhere around $80, while Russians are sitting at $70. You’d have to be incredibly foolish to choose expensive oil over the cheaper Russian stuff.

Only those within the Bureaucracy could be that dense. They seem to have a passion for buying the most expensive options just to kill their own competitiveness on the global market.

At the end of the day, the logical conclusion is simple: the sanctions are working. 😵

Huh. What do you think, man? Thoughts?
I was just scrolling through my feed and saw this latest update about how the sanctions on Russia still aren’t working, and honestly, it feels like we’re stuck in some kind of political Twilight Zone where nothing actually changes despite all the shouting. You see these headlines about the G7 trying to squeeze everything they can, but then you look at the actual numbers and realize that global trade is just too massive and interconnected for any one set of rules to truly break the machine. It’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck where everyone knows what’s happening, but nobody can seem to grab the brakes! And don't even get me started on the hypocrisy of it all—you have all this intense rhetoric coming out of Washington and the rest of the West, yet you look at the massive energy deals or the way certain sectors continue to bypass the rules through third parties, and it makes you wonder if anyone is actually pulling the same strings they claim to be. It’s frustrating because you want to believe that these measures will lead to some sort of decisive shift, but instead, it feels like we're just spinning our wheels while the reality on the ground remains stubbornly the same. We talk about pressure, we talk about isolation, but when the global economy is this tangled up, "isolation" becomes such a relative term, doesn't it? It really makes you stop and think about whether the strategy itself is flawed from the jump.

This is just Putin’s clandestine playbook, working in tandem with New Delhi to pull the rug out from under the West. 😁

The latest reports from Bloomberg make one thing crystal clear: the current strategy regarding Russia isn't hitting the mark. We were promised that tightening the screws would force a pivot, yet here we are. Instead of a collapse, we're seeing a massive redirection of resources. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that the economic pressure the West is trying to exert is being bypassed through various backchannels. While the G7 continues to debate more aggressive measures, countries like India and China are essentially stepping in to fill the vacuum, keeping the global energy markets surprisingly stable despite the chaos. It’s a frustrating reality to watch. We talk about isolation, but in a globalized economy, true isolation is an illusion. If you want to see real change, the current playbook needs a complete overhaul.

Word on the street is that those close to the situation are saying...

Indian officials haven't officially committed to backing the price cap or the sanctions the G7 slapped on Russia.

Government officials were nowhere to be found when I reached out via text after business hours, leaving my inquiries unanswered.

What am I even supposed to comment on? Rumors? Misinformation?

It’s quite telling how you keep feeding us these Russian talking points about how brilliantly everything is going over there. I honestly can't wrap my head around why they haven't just slapped themselves with sanctions if their economic policies are supposedly such a miracle cure.