Sanctions on Russia

Noah Diaz said:These are genuine discounts, calculated against Brent using a specific formula.

Offers for ESPO that’s typically loaded at Kozmino port was close to $6.50 to $7 a barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China, while flagship Urals shipped from western ports was around $10 under the same benchmark, said traders.

Brent is currently sitting at $77.45.

Based on the formula mentioned above, Russia is selling:

ESPO: ~$70
URAL: ~$67

It seems that the largest importers and transporters of Russian oil have gone ahead and implemented price caps and shipping restrictions, yet it appears these measures are being turned on their head. I suppose new buyers are simply using those very same sanctions as a convenient excuse to demand even deeper discounts on oil purchases. To put it mildly, one might say these sanctions aren't exactly having the intended effect.

Morgan Wright5 said:It seems that the largest importers and transporters of Russian oil have gone ahead and implemented price caps and shipping restrictions, yet it appears these measures are being turned on their head. I suppose new buyers are simply using those very same sanctions as a convenient excuse to demand even deeper discounts on oil purchases. To put it mildly, one might say these sanctions aren't exactly having the intended effect.

I’m with you—sanctions just aren't working.

That deficit we saw back in January and February—hitting $35 billion (which is a 45% shortfall compared to spending, or more simply—they spent nearly 100% more than what actually came into the budget)—is all because Russia is pouring money into salaries, pensions, healthcare, education, and just generally leveling up the quality of life for its people. My Russian visa is currently being processed—I am officially leaving this decaying West behind for a land of milk and honey that, despite the sanctions, is actually thriving.

Harold Nelson6 said:I’m with you—sanctions just aren't working.

That deficit we saw back in January and February—hitting $35 billion (which is a 45% shortfall compared to spending, or more simply—they spent nearly 100% more than what actually came into the budget)—is all because Russia is pouring money into salaries, pensions, healthcare, education, and just generally leveling up the quality of life for its people. My Russian visa is currently being processed—I am officially leaving this decaying West behind for a land of milk and honey that, despite the sanctions, is actually thriving.

It seems you might have missed the point of my previous post, but I suppose that's alright.

Harold Nelson6 said:I’m with you—sanctions just aren't working.

That deficit we saw back in January and February—hitting $35 billion (which is a 45% shortfall compared to spending, or more simply—they spent nearly 100% more than what actually came into the budget)—is all because Russia is pouring money into salaries, pensions, healthcare, education, and just generally leveling up the quality of life for its people. My Russian visa is currently being processed—I am officially leaving this decaying West behind for a land of milk and honey that, despite the sanctions, is actually thriving.

Better move fast, though—the fences are going up.

Morgan Wright5 said:It seems you might have missed the point of my previous post, but I suppose that's alright.

Could be. My bad 🙈

Man, it’s wild how much these folks in India just don't care about this war one bit.

Even if Russian oil ends up being roughly $15 cheaper per barrel, an Indian refinery processing 200,000 barrels a day would still save about three million dollars daily compared to their competitors in Europe. Over the course of a year, we're talking about savings that exceed a billion dollars.

The Indian Minister of Petroleum, Hardeep Singh Puri, even mentioned back in February that they aren't planning on stopping their purchases from Russia as long as those prices "remain attractive."

Nathan Evans78 said:Man, it’s wild how much these folks in India just don't care about this war one bit.

Even if Russian oil ends up being roughly $15 cheaper per barrel, an Indian refinery processing 200,000 barrels a day would still save about three million dollars daily compared to their competitors in Europe. Over the course of a year, we're talking about savings that exceed a billion dollars.

The Indian Minister of Petroleum, Hardeep Singh Puri, even mentioned back in February that they aren't planning on stopping their purchases from Russia as long as those prices "remain attractive."

Go ahead, go find out what "good prices" actually look like to them.

Nathan Evans78 said:Man, it’s wild how much these folks in India just don't care about this war one bit.

Even if Russian oil ends up being roughly $15 cheaper per barrel, an Indian refinery processing 200,000 barrels a day would still save about three million dollars daily compared to their competitors in Europe. Over the course of a year, we're talking about savings that exceed a billion dollars.

The Indian Minister of Petroleum, Hardeep Singh Puri, even mentioned back in February that they aren't planning on stopping their purchases from Russia as long as those prices "remain attractive."

I was watching this clip where the Indian Foreign Minister was in Washington, D.C. He was responding to some journalist—seemed like he was from Lithuania—who asked him why anyone should bother helping India if China ever makes moves, especially since they didn't step up for others during the situation in Ukraine. Basically, how can anyone trust India? And his response? Just incredibly blunt:

"Somewhere along the line, Europe needs to stop thinking that European problems are global problems, even though global problems aren't necessarily European ones," he said.

“There’s a connection being forged right now. A link between China, India, and what’s unfolding in Ukraine. But the tension between China and India existed long before anything happened in Ukraine. The Chinese don't need some outside precedent to decide whether they want to engage with us or make things difficult for us,” he noted.

"If you look at Europe as a whole, they've been silent on so many things happening elsewhere, like in Asia. You have to wonder why anyone in Asia would ever take Europe seriously on anything," he added.

He basically just called them out. 🤣

Will Russian oil get even cheaper soon?

Quote: USA, Estonia, and Lithuania are pushing for a lowering of the price cap on Russian oil in a bid to further limit the financing of the Kremlin's war machine. The three countries propose that the ceiling, set at USD 60 per barrel in December, be cut to no more than USD 51.45. The issue of reviewing the Russian oil price cap is to be discussed on Wednesday at a meeting of member states' ambassadors to the European Union, Associated Press has learnt.

Quote: USA, Estonia, and Lithuania are pushing for a lowering of the price cap on Russian oil in a bid to further limit the financing of the Kremlin's war machine. These three nations want to take that ceiling—which was set at $60 a barrel back in December—and drop it down to no more than $51.45. According to the Associated Press, the whole discussion about revising this Russian oil price cap is happening this Wednesday during a meeting of member state ambassadors to the European Union.

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article...sian-oil-37180

#sanctions_dont_work 😁

goldenorca11 said:Will Russian oil get even cheaper soon?

Quote: USA, Estonia, and Lithuania are pushing for a lowering of the price cap on Russian oil in a bid to further limit the financing of the Kremlin's war machine. The three countries propose that the ceiling, set at USD 60 per barrel in December, be cut to no more than USD 51.45. The issue of reviewing the Russian oil price cap is to be discussed on Wednesday at a meeting of member states' ambassadors to the European Union, Associated Press has learnt.

Quote: USA, Estonia, and Lithuania are pushing for a lowering of the price cap on Russian oil in a bid to further limit the financing of the Kremlin's war machine. These three nations want to take that ceiling—which was set at $60 a barrel back in December—and drop it down to no more than $51.45. According to the Associated Press, the whole discussion about revising this Russian oil price cap is happening this Wednesday during a meeting of member state ambassadors to the European Union.

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article...sian-oil-37180

#sanctions_dont_work 😁

The whole point of sanctions is to drive down the price of Russian energy...

Mark Carter14 said:I was watching this clip where the Indian Foreign Minister was in Washington, D.C. He was responding to some journalist—seemed like he was from Lithuania—who asked him why anyone should bother helping India if China ever makes moves, especially since they didn't step up for others during the situation in Ukraine. Basically, how can anyone trust India? And his response? Just incredibly blunt:

"Somewhere along the line, Europe needs to stop thinking that European problems are global problems, even though global problems aren't necessarily European ones," he said.

“There’s a connection being forged right now. A link between China, India, and what’s unfolding in Ukraine. But the tension between China and India existed long before anything happened in Ukraine. The Chinese don't need some outside precedent to decide whether they want to engage with us or make things difficult for us,” he noted.

"If you look at Europe as a whole, they've been silent on so many things happening elsewhere, like in Asia. You have to wonder why anyone in Asia would ever take Europe seriously on anything," he added.

He basically just called them out. 🤣

Honestly, I don't see anything wrong with what he said, and I totally get where he's coming from. But people like you seem pretty happy that Russia still has someone to sell oil to, while completely ignoring the fact that they're selling it way cheaper than they ever would in a normal market. You're acting like Indians are buying Russian oil because they're best buddies or allies, when really they're just grabbing it because it's dirt cheap. Lower price means less money spent for the same amount of fuel. Now I'm just waiting for the inevitable comeback about how the European Union is paying way more for oil and therefore sanctions aren't working. It's not like Russia would give those massive discounts to just anyone if their market hadn't shrunk so drastically... Sure, the European Union pays a bit more than they did before the war, but they can afford it. Meanwhile, Russia is forced to sell at a discount and is bringing in way less cash than they used to.

Paul Anderson7 said:Honestly, why on earth would India care about what’s going on in Ukraine? It’s much like how most people in the European Union don't give a second thought to the various tragedies unfolding across Africa or Asia... If there isn't some direct benefit or a looming problem tied to those events, why bother getting involved? They have more than enough of their own domestic issues to deal with, which naturally takes priority over everything else.

Does anyone actually truly care about what happens in the very countries where our coffee, cocoa, cobalt, and nickel come from...?

Harold Nelson6 said:I’m with you—sanctions just aren't working.

That deficit we saw back in January and February—hitting $35 billion (which is a 45% shortfall compared to spending, or more simply—they spent nearly 100% more than what actually came into the budget)—is all because Russia is pouring money into salaries, pensions, healthcare, education, and just generally leveling up the quality of life for its people. My Russian visa is currently being processed—I am officially leaving this decaying West behind for a land of milk and honey that, despite the sanctions, is actually thriving.

brightheron64 said:Does anyone actually truly care about what happens in the very countries where our coffee, cocoa, cobalt, and nickel come from...?

Well, since most people here seem to view the conditions under which cobalt is mined in the Congo as a very low priority while they're busy scrolling on their phones, I imagine the situation in Ukraine holds a similarly low priority for the average Indian. It's a rather sad reality, I suppose, but that seems to be how it is.

Paul Anderson7 said:Honestly, why on earth would India care about what’s going down in Ukraine? It’s just like how most of the European Union couldn't care less about the absolute mess happening across Africa or Asia. If there isn't some direct benefit or a looming problem tied to these events, why bother getting involved? They have more than enough of their own massive problems to deal with; that's clearly where their focus should stay.

This is one thing that either Russia or certain neighbors of ours just can't wrap their heads around. For us—meaning "the West"—there is a massive difference between causing chaos in remote parts of Asia or Africa and actually showing up at the table here in Europe. (And obviously, the reverse holds true for them, too.)

Morgan Wright5 said:Well, since most people here seem to view the conditions under which cobalt is mined in the Congo as a very low priority while they're busy scrolling on their phones, I imagine the situation in Ukraine holds a similarly low priority for the average Indian. It's a rather sad reality, I suppose, but that seems to be how it is.

Look, we're all humans—we have our limits. Maybe I would care more about Ukraine if certain idiots hadn't been running hybrid operations against us and our neighbors for the last 15 years. But then you get hit with the "but" and suddenly everything we stood for is tossed out the window... just leave me alone, honestly.

Jason Fox2 said:Honestly, I don't see anything wrong with what he said, and I totally get where he's coming from. But people like you seem pretty happy that Russia still has someone to sell oil to, while completely ignoring the fact that they're selling it way cheaper than they ever would in a normal market. You're acting like Indians are buying Russian oil because they're best buddies or allies, when really they're just grabbing it because it's dirt cheap. Lower price means less money spent for the same amount of fuel. Now I'm just waiting for the inevitable comeback about how the European Union is paying way more for oil and therefore sanctions aren't working. It's not like Russia would give those massive discounts to just anyone if their market hadn't shrunk so drastically... Sure, the European Union pays a bit more than they did before the war, but they can afford it. Meanwhile, Russia is forced to sell at a discount and is bringing in way less cash than they used to.

Prices are down slightly, but the volume delivered isn't the same; it’s actually higher.



So, Russia ends up making the same money regardless of discounts or "sanctions." It wouldn't surprise me if there are some backroom deals or joint ventures happening between allies (China, India, and Russia), where they split the extra profits by reselling oil and gas to those G7 breadbasket types.

Asia has effectively replaced the European Union and G7 markets within a single year.



sources:
Russian total oil exports, January 2022 - January 2023
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/russ...de-oil-tracker

Noah Diaz said:Prices are down slightly, but the volume delivered isn't the same; it’s actually higher.



So, Russia ends up making the same money regardless of discounts or "sanctions." It wouldn't surprise me if there are some backroom deals or joint ventures happening between allies (China, India, and Russia), where they split the extra profits by reselling oil and gas to those G7 breadbasket types.

Asia has effectively replaced the European Union and G7 markets within a single year.



sources:
Russian total oil exports, January 2022 - January 2023
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/russ...de-oil-tracker

Reuters reports that in January 2023, oil and gas revenues plummeted by 46% compared to January 2022.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/tass.co...my/1572381/amp

brightheron64 said:Does anyone actually truly care about what happens in the very countries where our coffee, cocoa, cobalt, and nickel come from...?

Most of the time, the natural wealth and strategic resources in those nations end up under the control of Western corporations or major players from the East, all backed by private security and actual militaries. Local politics and the inevitable unrest don't really touch those assets; if anyone tries to mess with them, they're going to find out very quickly how much trouble they've stirred up.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Reuters reports that in January 2023, oil and gas revenues plummeted by 46% compared to January 2022.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/tass.co...my/1572381/amp

Russian revenue has taken a hit.

Due to Western sanctions, Russia has actually sold more than twice as much oil to Asia over the twelve months ending in January, according to data from the analytics firm Bloomberg.

Iran, which is also facing American sanctions, has reportedly boosted its oil exports to their highest levels in three years, with China acting as their primary customer.

The main Russian export blend, the Appalachians, used to sell in Europe at just a few dollars less than the ExxonMobil benchmark before the invasion of Ukraine. Now, according to the Bloomberg Terminal, it’s selling in Asia at a whopping $24 discount.

Some industry insiders, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggest the gap might be a bit smaller, placing the Appalachians at about $10 to $15 cheaper per barrel.

Russia is shipping double the oil to Asia, yet their revenue is still dropping.
We know they are selling oil at deep discounts, even though some folks here claim they are getting old prices. It seems some forum users think they know more than the Associated Press or the rest of the world! 🤦
But look, there is a logical explanation here. Russia is clearly still moving oil. Prices are obviously discounted. However, we have to remember they aren't just selling oil—they sell gas, too. These figures represent total combined revenue from both oil and gas.
Extracting all that oil isn't free; it costs money. It is entirely possible for Russia to export more volume while seeing lower total revenue if the profit per barrel has dropped significantly enough. Plus, we know most of the gas that used to go to European Union countries simply isn't flowing there anymore.

#sanctions_arent_working 😁

Jason Fox2 said:Honestly, I don't see anything wrong with what he said, and I totally get where he's coming from. But people like you seem pretty happy that Russia still has someone to sell oil to, while completely ignoring the fact that they're selling it way cheaper than they ever would in a normal market. You're acting like Indians are buying Russian oil because they're best buddies or allies, when really they're just grabbing it because it's dirt cheap. Lower price means less money spent for the same amount of fuel. Now I'm just waiting for the inevitable comeback about how the European Union is paying way more for oil and therefore sanctions aren't working. It's not like Russia would give those massive discounts to just anyone if their market hadn't shrunk so drastically... Sure, the European Union pays a bit more than they did before the war, but they can afford it. Meanwhile, Russia is forced to sell at a discount and is bringing in way less cash than they used to.

The fact that the European Union is buying some Russian oil is purely logical—it's an attempt to stabilize prices against other markets, not because Russian oil holds any special value.

This whole oil narrative sounds as believable to me as if we used to export oil to Canada and the Žepče Mexicans defended us for the Americans.

It’s what people say when they want to claim there’s a lot of backroom dealing between the aggressor and the victim and that sanctions are a joke.

Not long ago, there was a crowd against sanctions; suddenly, they stopped caring, and the moment an article popped up on CNN about mass purchases of Russian goods for the European Union, they all came out of nowhere.