Sanctions on Russia

Carl Lee27 said:The thing is, Russia won't be able to just reroute gas from the American market over to China anytime soon, unless we're talking about maybe some small portion through Yamal LNG.
See, the gas headed toward America comes from totally different fields than the stuff going to China. For the American market, they're pulling from fields up in the northern Urals and western Siberia, whereas the supply for China comes from eastern Siberia. There isn't actually a connection between the pipeline network serving America and the one heading to China. And honestly, there won't be one for at least a few more years until they finally finish up Power of Siberia 2.
https://i.ibb.co/1LfhLv1/Russia2.jpg

And yeah, look—the very fact that these two networks will inevitably be linked means it's just a matter of time before Russia starts hiking up gas prices for the American market, regardless of whether sanctions are in place or not. Once they're connected, Americans will basically be stuck competing directly with the Chinese through Gazprom. It doesn't really matter to America whether they're fighting Asia for LNG today or if they'll be battling Asia for Siberian gas tomorrow; the competition is coming either way.

That was exactly my point—that this is a bad indicator for Russia, which is why I specifically pointed out the silver lining regarding those negative rates in Germany.

You’re being ridiculous. Just head down to a local hardware store, buy a rubber garden hose, and there's your pipeline. Sooner or later, you'll have it. Permafrost? Who cares about frozen ground. You just need to tape the ends together with some cheap wire so it doesn't burst under pressure.

What are the actual possibilities for alternative gas supplies, even if we manage to reduce our reliance on the fuel altogether by transitioning to different heating models?

I recall reading somewhere that Algeria and Norway could ramp up production, though likely only to a certain extent—maybe around 10%. What about Azerbaijan or Qatar?

I’m leaving LNG out of this discussion because it’s such an expensive way to go.

Dennis Allen said:Is card processing still working? Can they still pay using credit or debit cards?

It's like a local convenience store—banks rarely keep massive piles of cash sitting around on hand anyway.

As long as they can swipe a card or use a mobile app, they've still technically got access to their funds!

People likely wanted to pull out cash—which was the smart move given the circumstances—because the government can always step in, put its thumb on the scale, and declare a daily withdrawal limit. We saw this exact playbook used in Greece and Cyprus during the crisis. Back then, people scrambled to hit ATMs abroad using their cards to get liquid. These folks can't leave now. And there isn't much of an escape route anyway, considering Moscow, for instance, is tucked deep into the interior. If they have Rubles sitting in an account, they should probably spend them; inflation will eventually erode whatever value is left. At the very least, try to stockpile some essentials, assuming anyone is even selling them anymore.

Carl Lee27 said:The thing is, Russia won't be able to just reroute gas from the American market over to China anytime soon, unless we're talking about maybe some small portion through Yamal LNG.
See, the gas headed toward America comes from totally different fields than the stuff going to China. For the American market, they're pulling from fields up in the northern Urals and western Siberia, whereas the supply for China comes from eastern Siberia. There isn't actually a connection between the pipeline network serving America and the one heading to China. And honestly, there won't be one for at least a few more years until they finally finish up Power of Siberia 2.
https://i.ibb.co/1LfhLv1/Russia2.jpg

And yeah, look—the very fact that these two networks will inevitably be linked means it's just a matter of time before Russia starts hiking up gas prices for the American market, regardless of whether sanctions are in place or not. Once they're connected, Americans will basically be stuck competing directly with the Chinese through Gazprom. It doesn't really matter to America whether they're fighting Asia for LNG today or if they'll be battling Asia for Siberian gas tomorrow; the competition is coming either way.

That was exactly my point—that this is a bad indicator for Russia, which is why I specifically pointed out the silver lining regarding those negative rates in Germany.

I totally misread that 😳

Michael Ortiz68 said:What are the actual possibilities for alternative gas supplies, even if we manage to reduce our reliance on the fuel altogether by transitioning to different heating models?

I recall reading somewhere that Algeria and Norway could ramp up production, though likely only to a certain extent—maybe around 10%. What about Azerbaijan or Qatar?

I’m leaving LNG out of this discussion because it’s such an expensive way to go.

Well, I guess that’s just what the future looks like for the whole European market.

According to reports from Finance NLB, they're picking up Sberbank's branch here in the States.

So, word on the street via the Finance website is that NLB will most likely be the one snapping up Sberbank—if the rumors are even remotely true. If that actually happens, they’ll probably just move the shares over to NLB overnight on Wednesday, meaning customers should be back in business with their banking services by Wednesday morning. Basically, NLB would step in to cover Sberbank's liquidity, which means we might not even need to trigger any deposit insurance schemes. We should get an official word on this late in the afternoon, according to the paper. Apparently, Gorenjska banka is also lurking around in the mix.

Michael Ortiz68 said:What are the actual possibilities for alternative gas supplies, even if we manage to reduce our reliance on the fuel altogether by transitioning to different heating models?

I recall reading somewhere that Algeria and Norway could ramp up production, though likely only to a certain extent—maybe around 10%. What about Azerbaijan or Qatar?

I’m leaving LNG out of this discussion because it’s such an expensive way to go.

The real issue is the pipeline infrastructure. There is a pipeline running through Turkey from Azerbaijan into the European Union, assuming that project is actually finished—Blue Stream, perhaps? As for Algeria, they are likely hitting the ceiling of their existing pipeline capacities. Then you have Qatar, which delivers via LNG tankers; that requires dedicated terminals and specialized vessels. It seems those ships will become more common. Despite all the talk of diversifying, most gas will likely still flow from Russia. Neither side wants to lose a reliable supplier or a wealthy customer. Still, having alternative routes is necessary—just enough to prevent prices from skyrocketing when you're tethered to a single provider.

It looks like the Russian Ambassador to Poland is probably about to be declared persona non grata. From what I’m hearing, Poland is moving to completely sever diplomatic ties with Russia.

https://forsal.pl/swiat/rosja/artyku...h-krokach.html

Matthew Rodriguez9 said:Well, I guess that’s just what the future looks like for the whole European market.

Maybe in the short term. Long term? Gas from Russia will probably start flowing again if it ever actually stops. It's not like Russia has some incredibly diversified economy where they can afford to lose their biggest customer.

The only real shot the Russians have is finding a way to destabilize a divided Europe from the inside again, which is what they've always done. It's not impossible, since this kind of momentum doesn't usually last forever.

Given how things are set up right now, it’s really just a matter of time before Russia has to swallow its pride—whether that’s with Vladimir Putin at the helm or someone else.

It’s an interesting turn of events, though certainly not what I anticipated, seeing as Mexico has no intention of joining any sanctions against Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/mexico...ia-2022-03-01/

I’m genuinely curious to hear what the Americans have to say about this, especially considering they’re neighbors who already deal with enough friction regarding drug cartels and trafficking.☕

wiredseal7 said:He was being naive. This "global market" everyone advertises isn't actually open to everyone—it’s more like a trap designed to lure someone in before stripping them naked. It reminds me of a similar, even bigger heist: the Bretton Woods agreement.

This whole sanctions move? It's bigger than Ukraine, IMO. That conflict is almost a footnote compared to the scale of what we're stepping into.
The speed and sheer suddenness of the reaction—that pre-made list of targets—shows this was a calculated plan just waiting for an excuse to trigger.

Just watch what China does with American Treasuries and their other Western holdings in the coming months. The obvious endgame is to ditch the dollar in the medium term and make the Yuan the mandatory currency for Chinese goods—let's see who survives without it. The digital Yuan is definitely going on the fast track, and I wouldn't be surprised if they pull a total 180 on digital currencies, including mining—just so the Americans can't pull a stunt to seize control of the blockchain via "proof of work."

I'm not losing sleep over the folks in Washington or London; they'll cover themselves and probably turn a profit. The EU—and obviously Russia—will foot the bill. Like I said, the damage from the bank run on Sberbank is already costing us a fortune, and that's just the opening salvo.

You mean the Yuan, not the Jen. Isn't the Chinese Yuan one of the five major currencies used for international transactions, alongside the US Dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, and the Yen? As far as I know, the Yuan accounts for only about 1.2% of global transactions, whereas the US Dollar sits at 42% and the Euro at 38%.

Matthew Rodriguez9 said:Well, I guess that’s just what the future looks like for the whole European market.

Fair point, but there are plenty of shuttered nuclear plants and coal facilities scattered across the European Union right now. Surely it wouldn't be that much of a headache to get them back online if things actually get desperate...

What’s the actual chance these sanctions could tank Russia's economy down to the level of North Korea? Could we see the Russian people actually rising up in millions to topple the regime, similar to what happened during the protests in Romania?

I honestly don't see how you survive long-term when you're cut off from the global flow of capital. If you can't buy anything or import basic technology, how much can a nation actually endure before it snaps?

Look, I'm no expert here, but I'm curious.

People are saying these sanctions are even more brutal than what hit North Korea, and we all know exactly what life looks like over there.

Sure, Russians have dealt with crises like this throughout history—but there's a massive difference between surviving the Middle Ages and trying to function in 21st-century globalization. The real question is: can a country even exist today, completely isolated, without their standard of living cratering to North Korean levels?

And how are they supposed to advance their military tech without components from Japan, South Korea, or the European Union? We're talking chips, processors, the whole works. I've heard reports that Russia is lagging massively behind in that area and that their electronics industry is basically non-existent. I don't know if that's strictly true, but it's worth asking.

Emily Fox2 said:Total investments sunk into Russia have hit nearly $500 billion, and right now, there’s just no way to cash them out. ☕
https://www.fdiintelligence.com/article/80757
https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-...ry-01646136307

So, if you look at what Fred is saying, it's basically like Putin's got an ace up his sleeve...

Matthew Rodriguez9 said:So, if you look at what Fred is saying, it's basically like Putin's got an ace up his sleeve...

Maybe the West knows this. Maybe they’re willing to pay whatever price it takes to bring Putin down and knock Russia to its knees, all according to some pre-written script?

$500 billion to dismantle Putin and crush Russia doesn't seem like much money to me when you consider the payday waiting on the other side. If they can topple this regime and install some "Pro-Western" puppet state—something similar to what happened in Ukraine—they'll get their hands on all that Russian wealth and resources.

Honestly, the whole thing smells like that's exactly the play they're making.

Douglas Perez3 said:Maybe the West knows this. Maybe they’re willing to pay whatever price it takes to bring Putin down and knock Russia to its knees, all according to some pre-written script?

$500 billion to dismantle Putin and crush Russia doesn't seem like much money to me when you consider the payday waiting on the other side. If they can topple this regime and install some "Pro-Western" puppet state—something similar to what happened in Ukraine—they'll get their hands on all that Russian wealth and resources.

Honestly, the whole thing smells like that's exactly the play they're making.

$500 billion is peanuts on a global scale... come on, get real. And that’s assuming any of it actually stays on the table, which—let's be honest—is basically impossible.
Just look at Germany; they pull in almost three times that much in direct foreign investment alone (and those were pre-pandemic numbers!). If you factor in the rest of the EU, China, the USA, or the UK... man, you have to be swallowing massive amounts of Putin-style propaganda to think $500 billion actually moves the needle. It’s total nonsense.

Emily Fox2 said:Total investments sunk into Russia have hit nearly $500 billion, and right now, there’s just no way to cash them out. ☕
https://www.fdiintelligence.com/article/80757
https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-...ry-01646136307

This coffee is excellent... though calling $500 billion "not much" is a stretch, especially since you're counting investments that have already been recouped.

Take BP, for example—they just ate a $25 billion loss from their exit in Russia.

Their stock price tumbled down to... checks notes... levels we haven't seen since early January 2022.

And meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase went belly up.

I honestly don't think people grasp the massive disparity in economic power between the EU and Russia. Sure, Russia is huge, they have the weaponry, and they've got the raw materials—but that’s pretty much where the comparison ends. Beyond that, everything else leans heavily toward the EU. When you look at population numbers, sheer economic muscle, self-sufficiency, and those global supply chain connections that allow them to source whatever isn't available locally... it's not even close.
And I'm not even factoring the USA into this equation yet.

The dollar is starting to pull away from the dollar again, sitting at 115 now. The Fed is going to have to step in with two interventions a day just to keep things steady, and honestly, God knows how much longer they can actually hold out like this before it all hits the fan.

Maybe this will be a bit of an eye-opener for some people:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_GDP_(nominal)
Russia isn't even the 3rd, 4th, or 5th largest economy by GDP. It’s actually sitting at 11th. Even Italy—which is just a neighbor in our part of the world—has a larger GDP than all of Russia combined. ITALY!

"Russia might endure, but the European Union won't." 🤣