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Sanctions on Russia

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 18 views · 9.5K replies

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Participants Richard Wilson4velvetcyclist95Jeremy Peterson4silentsurfer3rowdytiger13Carol Newman2William Anderson5Carl Cookfrozencobra50Paul Patel95Michael Davis10Gary WilsonGregory Ramos3slyfox43dustywolf13Tyler Jones6Larry Walker24Ashley Ramirez4Paul Clark80Adam Lee13northernangler8Nancy Ruiz5James Chavez91neonheron9 …
hollowdriver13 hollowdriver13 Regular
705 messages
joined Feb 2022
#181 ·
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russi...055338823.html

Looks like JPMorgan Chase is having a hard time keeping enough cash on hand to run their local branches, so they're pulling out of the European market altogether.
Rebecca Roberts2 Rebecca Roberts2 Member
28 messages
joined Jan 2008
#182 ·
Is the exchange in Washington, D.C. still closed?
hollowdriver13 hollowdriver13 Regular
705 messages
joined Feb 2022
#183 ·
Rebecca Roberts2 said:Is the exchange in Washington, D.C. still closed?

It’s shut down until May 5th. After that, they mentioned they might reopen trading, but they'll probably slap a daily cap on transaction amounts to keep things from spiraling.
electrictrucker82 electrictrucker82 Member
39 messages
joined Sep 2019
#184 ·
Andrew Miller102 said:Unlike what we saw with Mexico, this tactical move from Turkey was entirely predictable.☕

Erdogan might be unpredictable, but it seems he was outmaneuvered by those political shifts a few years back. It looks like being blocked from those Russian vacation spots really stung, regardless of how much the armchair experts mocked him at the time. 😉 Plus, we shouldn't forget that Putko really helped bail him out once upon a time.

Andrew Miller102 said:Long live the chaos; without Jabuchar’s products, the Russians will end up in a psych ward.😵

Jabuchar is pretty much the only player left in the smartphone game. If you aren't carrying an iPhone or using an iMac, then you're basically just a peasant with an Android..🤣😵

The landscape of mobile technology is shifting, and if you aren't paying attention to how certain international brands are aggressively carving out market share, you're missing the bigger picture. While most people in the States are content to just grab whatever is sitting on the shelf at Best Buy or clicking "buy now" on an Amazon listing, there is a much more complex power struggle happening behind the scenes. We’ve spent decades under the assumption that a few major players would dictate the terms of the smartphone market indefinitely, but that era is fading. You see these massive manufacturers from Asia pushing hard into the American consumer space, offering hardware that often punches way above its weight class compared to what we typically see from the big Silicon Valley giants. It isn't just about price points anymore; it's about ecosystem integration and raw specs that make the standard offerings feel a bit dated by comparison. It’s a calculated move. These companies aren't just trying to sell a device; they are trying to build a foothold in the US market that eventually makes them indispensable. They are playing a long game, and honestly, it's working better than most analysts predicted. If you think the dominance of the current heavyweights is permanent, you probably haven't been looking closely enough at the sheer momentum these emerging brands are building.

The latest reports regarding Boeing’s manufacturing struggles suggest that the situation isn't just a temporary hiccup, but rather a deeper systemic issue within their production lines. It seems like they are struggling to maintain the rigorous quality standards required for modern aviation, which inevitably leads to delays and significant scrutiny from federal regulators here in the States. When you look at how much pressure these massive aerospace giants face to meet delivery timelines, it becomes increasingly clear that cutting corners is a recipe for disaster, regardless of how much they try to smooth things over with public statements. If they can't get their assembly processes back under control soon, the ripple effects throughout the entire American aviation sector are going to be substantial.

I had the exact same thought... Wouldn't it be something if we had a measure like that implemented here? 🤦 I can't even imagine life without Apple.
electrictrucker82 electrictrucker82 Member
39 messages
joined Sep 2019
#185 ·
hollowdriver13 said:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russi...055338823.html

Looks like JPMorgan Chase is having a hard time keeping enough cash on hand to run their local branches, so they're pulling out of the European market altogether.

Regarding that situation, some banks and branches have even dealt with physical attacks and verbal threats against regular employees. These people aren't even Russian—🤷 Rasputin is just throwing the whole world into chaos. Honestly, it might be better if they just shut down before things escalate to Molotov cocktails being thrown at them.

The only thing I'm wondering about is what happens to everyone's savings?
hollowdriver13 hollowdriver13 Regular
705 messages
joined Feb 2022
#186 ·
electrictrucker82 said:Regarding that situation, some banks and branches have even dealt with physical attacks and verbal threats against regular employees. These people aren't even Russian—🤷 Rasputin is just throwing the whole world into chaos. Honestly, it might be better if they just shut down before things escalate to Molotov cocktails being thrown at them.

The only thing I'm wondering about is what happens to everyone's savings?

It really is pathetic, honestly. You’re seeing that classic panic-driven mentality from the Russ crowd. 🤷
Henry Lopez10 Henry Lopez10 Member
24 messages
joined Mar 2010
#187 ·
Matthew Rodriguez9 said:I’m totally on the same page here, and honestly, I think Putin knows it too—he’s playing a pretty dangerous game with
his oligarchy.

They'll take him down like a sitting duck.
Sooner or later.
You can try anything else, just don't mess with my money.

The current situation is genuinely unbearable, and as weird as it sounds given the horror unfolding in Ukraine, the ones suffering the most damage from this war are actually the Russians. Long-term damage.
Economic fallout that you can't even put a number on.
It grows every single day.
What were they thinking? Putin and his crew? Now they're exactly where the West wanted them: isolated from the rest of the world. He’s basically playing right into their hands. 😵
Russia isn't going to annex Ukraine or walk away with the whole country anyway.
Instead, they're just self-destructing on so many different levels.

I suspect they were bracing for some diplomatic rebukes from the West, but certainly not sanctions this heavy or walls built this high.
I really believe they're in total shock over how the entire international community reacted.

The Russian military has already lost the war, Putin has lost the war, Russia has lost the war... they just refuse to admit it.
boldtiger7 boldtiger7 Active Member
62 messages
joined Aug 2021
#188 ·
electrictrucker82 said:Regarding that situation, some banks and branches have even dealt with physical attacks and verbal threats against regular employees. These people aren't even Russian—🤷 Rasputin is just throwing the whole world into chaos. Honestly, it might be better if they just shut down before things escalate to Molotov cocktails being thrown at them.

The only thing I'm wondering about is what happens to everyone's savings?

In the United States, the government insures deposits up to $250,000 via the FDIC.
bluemason3 bluemason3 Veteran
1.1K messages
joined Jun 2016
#189 ·
I wonder if oligarchs can actually turn on Putin without just replacing him with an equally terrible clone.

They aren't exactly independent actors. Whether you're looking at the old Yeltsin crowd or the new Putin loyalists, most of that wealth is tied directly to state connections. Some analysts even go as far as suggesting these oligarchs are basically just Putin’s accountants.

And if that's really how deep the connection goes, you have to ask if they could ever actually change the system without taking themselves down with it.
hollowdriver13 hollowdriver13 Regular
705 messages
joined Feb 2022
#190 ·
bluemason3 said:I wonder if oligarchs can actually turn on Putin without just replacing him with an equally terrible clone.

They aren't exactly independent actors. Whether you're looking at the old Yeltsin crowd or the new Putin loyalists, most of that wealth is tied directly to state connections. Some analysts even go as far as suggesting these oligarchs are basically just Putin’s accountants.

And if that's really how deep the connection goes, you have to ask if they could ever actually change the system without taking themselves down with it.

What’s really frustrating is that there isn't any obvious figurehead you can point to and say, "Okay, this is the guy who needs to step up and take over," who actually has the power to make it happen.

Right now, listening to Medvedev and Lavrov is like watching two offended divas throwing tantrums; they're just spouting nonsense at this point.
William Anderson5 William Anderson5 Active Member
219 messages
joined Jan 2013
#191 ·
bluemason3 said:I wonder if oligarchs can actually turn on Putin without just replacing him with an equally terrible clone.

They aren't exactly independent actors. Whether you're looking at the old Yeltsin crowd or the new Putin loyalists, most of that wealth is tied directly to state connections. Some analysts even go as far as suggesting these oligarchs are basically just Putin’s accountants.

And if that's really how deep the connection goes, you have to ask if they could ever actually change the system without taking themselves down with it.

It all hinges on the people in Putin's inner circle. If there isn't a direct link between the oligarchs and those decision-makers, nothing much will change.

Looking at Putin's invasion of Ukraine—something no rational oligarch would actually support—it seems clear he's moved beyond their influence, and they've lost their seat at his table...
bluemason3 bluemason3 Veteran
1.1K messages
joined Jun 2016
#192 ·
hollowdriver13 said:What’s really frustrating is that there isn't any obvious figurehead you can point to and say, "Okay, this is the guy who needs to step up and take over," who actually has the power to make it happen.

Right now, listening to Medvedev and Lavrov is like watching two offended divas throwing tantrums; they're just spouting nonsense at this point.

Well, when an autocrat has been in charge for decades and has tightened his grip on every single lever of the system, getting real change from within becomes nearly impossible.

Your only real options are street protests or a political opposition, both of which risk spiraling into a new era of chaos. Americans remember how messy things got during the Yeltsin years, so people end up clinging to Putin’s "strongman" approach just to avoid that instability.

On the flip side, if we had two generations of capable democratic leaders—since Yeltsin certainly wasn't one—things might actually change. Maybe.

Either way, finding a way out of this dead end looks difficult. International diplomacy is going to have to work overtime to find a solution where everyone involved can save enough face to actually sign off on it. I wouldn't exactly bet the house on Putin being willing to play ball.
Gerald Chavez7 Gerald Chavez7 Active Member
173 messages
joined Apr 2021
#193 ·
wiredseal7 said:The Iranians figured out how to patch them up. Honestly, the Russians won't have to worry about Western safety standards much longer anyway.

I'm reading that Americans might ban them from flying altogether soon. About time—maybe finally force them to touch down in Anchorage.

Consumer electronics? That’s a different story—they won't stay isolated. I mean, what's stopping someone from opening a shop in China, buying a whole container of phones, and just shipping them over on a train?

View on twitter

Even Boeing is out.

Sure, they can fly using nothing but sheer improvisation. We already saw how that goes back in the 90s—a few major crashes every single year.

...Anyway, I'm sure an Aeroflot pilot certified for a Boeing 787 will just happily stick around Russia to fly for pennies. The brain drain is only going to accelerate (and those older Soviet-era engineers, scientists, and pilots are long gone anyway)...
silverotter72 silverotter72 Active Member
126 messages
joined Mar 2022
#194 ·
USD : RUB = 1:116
William Anderson5 William Anderson5 Active Member
219 messages
joined Jan 2013
#195 ·
silverotter72 said:USD : RUB = 1:116

I was just looking at the numbers... looks like the ruble is absolutely cratering. Even central bank interventions don't seem to be doing much to stop the bleed...
Arthur Watson4 Arthur Watson4 Active Member
135 messages
joined Feb 2022
#196 ·
I just hope they get more responders on the scene soon to help put out these fires.
wiredseal7 wiredseal7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jan 2009
#197 ·
Henry Lopez10 said:They'll take him down like a sitting duck.
Sooner or later.
You can try anything else, just don't mess with my money.

The current situation is genuinely unbearable, and as weird as it sounds given the horror unfolding in Ukraine, the ones suffering the most damage from this war are actually the Russians. Long-term damage.
Economic fallout that you can't even put a number on.
It grows every single day.
What were they thinking? Putin and his crew? Now they're exactly where the West wanted them: isolated from the rest of the world. He’s basically playing right into their hands. 😵
Russia isn't going to annex Ukraine or walk away with the whole country anyway.
Instead, they're just self-destructing on so many different levels.

I suspect they were bracing for some diplomatic rebukes from the West, but certainly not sanctions this heavy or walls built this high.
I really believe they're in total shock over how the entire international community reacted.

The Russian military has already lost the war, Putin has lost the war, Russia has lost the war... they just refuse to admit it.

Some might say the (Western) world just got rid of an economic competitor the size of Italy or Spain. 😬
A powerhouse that trades massive amounts of raw materials—oil, gas, grain, metals, rare earth elements, fertilizer, etc. The total ripple effect ends up being even bigger than the direct damage to the Russian economy.

That's why they haven't included everything—they kept the essentials out.
It's a lose-lose scenario for everyone except China, unless the economic pressure actually manages to shake or unseat Putin. On his end, he's got the battle in Mariupol to boost morale for the troops and the people during these tough times, and linking up with Transnistria could serve as decent PR—assuming they remember to throw a party when they finally unite.

Gerald Chavez7 said:View on twitter

Even Boeing is out.

Sure, they can fly using nothing but sheer improvisation. We already saw how that goes back in the 90s—a few major crashes every single year.

...Anyway, I'm sure an Aeroflot pilot certified for a Boeing 787 will just happily stick around Russia to fly for pennies. The brain drain is only going to accelerate (and those older Soviet-era engineers, scientists, and pilots are long gone anyway)...

Hard to find a better reason for why these sanctions are bad and who they'll actually hit.
Though, they probably won't affect Iranians much either. They'll likely be the ones lending a hand to the Russians, given their experience with reverse-engineering aviation.

With a few civil aircraft development projects already underway in China and Russia (like the joint C929), this is going to be a massive tailwind for them.
I'm not sure how much they rely on Europe, but the Americans have been sanctioning them since the Trump era because they see them as competition.
Gerald Chavez7 Gerald Chavez7 Active Member
173 messages
joined Apr 2021
#198 ·
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...57256876072960

Nobody actually wants to touch Russian oil... Right now, about a quarter of their exports are sitting there without a buyer, and honestly, it looks like that number might hit half soon.
Carl Lee27 Carl Lee27 Regular
368 messages
joined Feb 2024
#199 ·
wiredseal7 said:The Iranians figured out how to patch them up. Honestly, the Russians won't have to worry about Western safety standards much longer anyway.

I'm reading that Americans might ban them from flying altogether soon. About time—maybe finally force them to touch down in Anchorage.

Consumer electronics? That’s a different story—they won't stay isolated. I mean, what's stopping someone from opening a shop in China, buying a whole container of phones, and just shipping them over on a train?

The reality is that nowadays, the value of almost anything with a microchip in it—partially, or even primarily or exclusively—is measured by how well it connects to the internet. The whole world is slowly drifting toward this point where you can’t even dream of having a TV without Netflix, cars are gradually becoming connected devices, and even people themselves are getting networked through wearable health monitors, and eventually we'll have chips tracking all sorts of parameters inside the body, naturally being synced up with smartphones and hospitals.
Everything is becoming connected, integrated, and complementary to everything else. Except for Russia, obviously. ☕

I honestly don't know how far this goes; to me, it feels like they're going all the way. Athletes are being banned, vodka is being cut off, and they're shutting down collaborations with philharmonics and universities. It's total isolation.
Take the iPhone, specifically. What is it actually worth without Apple Pay? Without iCloud? Without Apple Maps? Or what happens if tomorrow YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and everyone else pull out or get kicked out of Russia?

Nancy Gomez26 said:You’re being ridiculous. Just head down to a local hardware store, buy a rubber garden hose, and there's your pipeline. Sooner or later, you'll have it. Permafrost? Who cares about frozen ground. You just need to tape the ends together with some cheap wire so it doesn't burst under pressure.

The ultimate irony, of course, is that it would be much easier for me to get my hands on a rubber hose at Home Depot than it would be for ExxonMobil.

Michael Ortiz68 said:What are the actual possibilities for alternative gas supplies, even if we manage to reduce our reliance on the fuel altogether by transitioning to different heating models?

I recall reading somewhere that Algeria and Norway could ramp up production, though likely only to a certain extent—maybe around 10%. What about Azerbaijan or Qatar?

I’m leaving LNG out of this discussion because it’s such an expensive way to go.


Actually, LNG should definitely be mentioned, because besides being the future of supply for Europe, more gas has been flowing into Europe via LNG for several months now than through Russian pipelines.

On the domestic front, gas consumption is slowly trending downward, both per capita and in total. Well, it's actually accelerating lately. However, production is also dropping, and it's falling even faster than consumption. Resistance to fracking means these trends will be really hard to reverse. So, beyond just finding a replacement for Russian gas, we also need to compensate for the decline in domestic production. Currently, production from the EU + UK + Turkey + Ukraine covers about 40% of their needs.
Chart 1, domestic production
https://i.ibb.co/BtFt59c/eu-gas-prod...pg-2808719.jpg

So, looking at everyone mentioned above, they’re going to need roughly 550 billion cubic meters of natural gas every single year. Now, out of that massive amount, Russia is currently supplying just under 200 billion cubic meters—which, if you do the math, is somewhere in the neighborhood of 32-36%.
Chart 2, gas sources in Europe
https://i.ibb.co/5TMTxhg/EU-gas.jpg
Honestly, trying to get enough from Norway, Algeria, or even Groningen to cover even a quarter of what we take from Russia? That’s going to be an incredibly tough hill to climb. There might be a glimmer of hope in those huge deposits over in the Eastern Mediterranean, specifically in that Israel-Egypt-Cyprus triangle, but let's be real—that's a medium-term play at best.

Which brings us right to LNG, which is being framed as the most logical path forward. And honestly, it’s way more secure too, especially when you compare it to suppliers like Iran or Russia. LNG gives us the ability to fully diversify because global availability is constantly ramping up, along with the sheer number of people willing to sell it. And keep in mind, these numbers only represent what actually hits the market. You've got Australia, Nigeria, even Qatar—everyone has some untapped potential sitting there waiting to be tapped through their terminals.
Chart 3, LNG
https://i.ibb.co/GPCtQc4/Untitled.jpg
What the chart above doesn't explicitly show is that Americans have stepped up to become the biggest LNG exporters on the planet! And it's actually them who are going to squeeze Russia out of the European market. Between everything currently being built or already approved in the US (most of which was set in motion even before the situation in Ukraine kicked off), they are absolutely on track to have export capacity by the end of 2024 that matches the entire annual volume Europe used to import from Russia. Of course, terminal utilization won't hit a perfect 100%, and not all that cargo is going to head straight to Europe—we still have to account for Australia, Qatar, Malaysia, and the rest of the world—but the scale is there.

But look, in the short term, replacing Russian gas is basically impossible unless you start cutting off consumers entirely. Besides the fact that a good chunk of LNG is already booked up for the next few years, there’s also the issue of that one specific group of people—you know the type, the ones who spent the last twenty or thirty years playing Molotov-Ribbentrop 2.0—who are essentially responsible for putting Russia, Ukraine, and all of Europe in this mess today. They’re the kind of folks who could practically refuse to accept a single LNG tanker. Just for context, about a third of the total LNG capacity in the EU is currently sitting right there in Spain.

By the way, imports from Russia make up about 52-53% of the total gas imports into Europe. On the flip side, Russia's exports to Europe account for about 70-80% of their total gas exports, depending on how much they've started shifting toward China now that the pandemic has wound down.
Since the gas Russia sends to Europe can't just be rerouted to China anytime soon—aside from maybe smaller amounts moving through Yamal LNG—for them, those European exports are essentially lost for the time being. If Europe and America follow through on their end of the deal (and I see no reason why they wouldn't), Europe might actually manage to diversify its imports before Russia can successfully pivot its exports elsewhere.
Gerald Chavez7 Gerald Chavez7 Active Member
173 messages
joined Apr 2021
#200 ·
wiredseal7 said:Some might say the (Western) world just got rid of an economic competitor the size of Italy or Spain. 😬
A powerhouse that trades massive amounts of raw materials—oil, gas, grain, metals, rare earth elements, fertilizer, etc. The total ripple effect ends up being even bigger than the direct damage to the Russian economy.

That's why they haven't included everything—they kept the essentials out.
It's a lose-lose scenario for everyone except China, unless the economic pressure actually manages to shake or unseat Putin. On his end, he's got the battle in Mariupol to boost morale for the troops and the people during these tough times, and linking up with Transnistria could serve as decent PR—assuming they remember to throw a party when they finally unite.

Hard to find a better reason for why these sanctions are bad and who they'll actually hit.
Though, they probably won't affect Iranians much either. They'll likely be the ones lending a hand to the Russians, given their experience with reverse-engineering aviation.

With a few civil aircraft development projects already underway in China and Russia (like the joint C929), this is going to be a massive tailwind for them.
I'm not sure how much they rely on Europe, but the Americans have been sanctioning them since the Trump era because they see them as competition.

Sure, it hits the entire economy and every single person in it. The general population is getting hammered by the ruble's collapse—international travel costs have doubled (if they can even fly there at all), and the price of imported goods has skyrocketed.

As for how they'll adapt—the Embraer E-Jet was supposed to run on Pratt & Whitney engines, and I'm not exactly convinced their domestic engine development is going swimmingly...

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