Sanctions on Russia

Gerald Chavez7 said:This coffee is excellent... though calling $500 billion "not much" is a stretch, especially since you're counting investments that have already been recouped.

Take BP, for example—they just ate a $25 billion loss from their exit in Russia.

Their stock price tumbled down to... checks notes... levels we haven't seen since early January 2022.

And meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase went belly up.

Bold claims: 👍 similar to 'Avatar' / I was watching that great film 'The Big Lebowski' where 'The Dude' just doesn't give a damn about any of it—it’s all just slacking off and drugs... 🙂

Moving on—is '$500 billion' perhaps a fair price tag for Ukraine?.... 🤔

Basically—the US / the West 'seizes' Russian funds held in Western banks—

—and Russia 'gets' Ukraine.... 😵

---

(Personal impression, obviously) my gut feeling is that this works out well for the US / the West—

—and poorly for Russia (in the short term 🤔) because they'll be forced to dump massive amounts of cash into Ukraine.... 🤔

Even with huge discounts, Russia just can't seem to move its oil. It’s wild because full-blown sanctions haven't even hit yet (well, excluding the Canadian embargo), but the reality on the ground is already shifting—refineries across the West, Korea, and Japan are basically ghosting them, shipping companies are staying far away from the transport side, and even the banks are pulling the plug on financing.
For Russia, oil revenue is a way bigger lifeline than gas.

Traders are offering Urals at massive discounts of around $15 a barrel below the price of Brent — and even then not finding buyers. A drop in the price of ESPO, a grade of Russian crude popular in Asia, suggests refiners in Japan and South Korea are hitting pauses on purchases alongside those in Europe and the U.S.

“The market is starting to fail,” said a person at a major commodities trading house.

Companies including Vitol and Trafigura Group Pte hold Russian oil bought under long-term deals. They were unable to sell Tuesday, people familiar with their operations say.

In Europe, Swedish refiner Preem AB and Finland’s Neste Oyj NESTE say they have stopped Russian oil purchases and mostly replaced them with Northern European oil purchases. Valero Energy Corp, a Texas-based refining company, has suspended all future purchases of Russian oil, people familiar with the decision said.

For now, Russia is exporting about as much oil as it was on the eve of Thursday. But those flows, based on sales made before the war, will slow drastically in the coming weeks once cargoes have been delivered, traders and analysts say.

Russia is responding fast to shore up demand for its oil, a particularly vital source of dollars now the country’s foreign-currency reserves have been frozen by the U.S. and allies.

Companies including state-aligned giant Rosneft Oil Co. have pivoted from offering oil on a so-called FOB basis, in which buyers fix their own vessel and finance and insure the shipment, traders and oil executives say. Instead, they are offering oil on what is known in industry jargon as a CFR basis.

Under this model, Rosneft would use vessels from government-owned Sovcomflot’s fleet and deliver oil to the buyer’s door in return for cash, which means the buyer doesn’t have to worry about transportation, trade finance or insurance. Buyers are rejecting the proposal, an oil-industry executive and a Middle-East oil trader said.

Rosneft didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Many western shipping companies have grown nervous of sailing in the Black Sea to the south of Ukraine, and are contending with a jump in insurance rates for operating near a war zone.

Banks that grease the wheels of international commerce are refusing to finance Russian commodity deals. Lenders including ING Group NV, Société Générale and Credit Suisse Group AG CS aren’t issuing letters of credit—a form of trade finance—for oil and other natural resources from Russia, according to people familiar with the matter.

Spokespeople for Société Générale and Credit Suisse declined to comment. An ING spokesman said the bank wouldn’t grant loans to any Russian entities for the time being including those used to finance the commodities trade.

“The real headache right now is actually the payment terms,” explained Igho Sanomi, who founded the energy trading firm Taleveras. “Things have just become incredibly difficult on that front.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-...my-11646156655

silverotter72 said:I honestly don't think people grasp the massive disparity in economic power between the EU and Russia. Sure, Russia is huge, they have the weaponry, and they've got the raw materials—but that’s pretty much where the comparison ends. Beyond that, everything else leans heavily toward the EU. When you look at population numbers, sheer economic muscle, self-sufficiency, and those global supply chain connections that allow them to source whatever isn't available locally... it's not even close.
And I'm not even factoring the USA into this equation yet.

Absolutely. And it’s not even just the Putin supporters—so many people truly don't understand that ratio.

"According to various traders and oil execs, companies like the state-aligned giant Rosneft Oil Co. have shifted their strategy. They aren't really pushing oil on a standard FOB basis anymore—where you'd basically arrange your own ships and handle all the financing and insurance yourself. Instead, they're pivoting toward what we call a CFR basis in the industry.

With this setup, Rosneft would use vessels from government-owned Sovcomflot to deliver the oil right to the buyer's doorstep in exchange for cash, effectively taking the headache out of logistics, trade finance, and insurance for the purchaser. But here's the kicker: buyers are actually turning these offers down, according to an oil industry executive and a trader based in the Middle East."

🙏
So basically, they're trying to sweeten the deal by saying, "Hey, we'll handle the shipping at our own expense and bring it straight to your door," just so they can get their hands on those precious dollars. It's like they think they can just toss a basket of oil at people and call it a day, completely ignoring the fact that they clearly aren't feeling the pressure of this squeeze. 🤦

casualtiger2 said:300 Billionaires: The price tag of the invasion for the Russian super-rich
According to Forbes, Russian oligarchs have watched $126 billion vanish since February 16, 2022.
Maybe they should run the numbers themselves—might find a cheaper alternative to this mess.

bold: 👍

So, this specific "...$126 billion..." figure—not $125 or $130, but precisely $126.0342681 billion snatched from the oligarchic filth in Russia—🙂 /

—is being used as a metric for what... 😵

Basically, if these crooked—yet somehow "Western"—oligarchs managed to swipe a few billion from the thieving Russian oligarchs

—then I guess that counts as "satisfaction." 😵 🤣

I’m totally on the same page here, and honestly, I think Putin knows it too—he’s playing a pretty dangerous game with
his oligarchy.

Arthur Watson4 said:Absolutely. And it’s not even just the Putin supporters—so many people truly don't understand that ratio.

When I posted here a month ago saying Russia’s economy is basically on par with Spain, the pro-Russia crowd lost their minds.

But they couldn't care less about the actual economics. I can only imagine how much it stings right now, seeing their "military superpower" struggle so hard against the Ukrainians while they're busy dreaming about reaching the Atlantic for two days...

There are some decent people in that group, too. Some just genuinely believe he's this "leader protecting his people," but hey, maybe this will finally give them a reality check.

Amy Diaz222 said:bold: 👍

So, this specific "...$126 billion..." figure—not $125 or $130, but precisely $126.0342681 billion snatched from the oligarchic filth in Russia—🙂 /

—is being used as a metric for what... 😵

Basically, if these crooked—yet somehow "Western"—oligarchs managed to swipe a few billion from the thieving Russian oligarchs

—then I guess that counts as "satisfaction." 😵 🤣

Right, I forgot you don't speak German (and even if you did, would you actually get the point?), so here’s the translation:
"The reason is the Crash on the Russian stock market (MOEX index -33 percent) along with the collapse of the Russian State currency Ruble (-25 percent against the USD). Consequently, the billionaires lost more money in a single day than they had gained throughout the entire year so far."

Grund dafür ist der Crash am russischen Aktienmarkt (MOEX Index -33 Prozent) sowie der Absturz der russischen Staatswährung Rubel (-25 Prozent gegenüber USD). Die Milliardäre haben somit an nur einem Tag mehr Geld verloren, als sie bis dato im bisherigen Jahresverlauf hinzugewinnen konnten.

Alright, now it's your turn—tell me about our "Western oligarchs" and the decaying West...

casualtiger2 said:Right, I forgot you don't speak German (and even if you did, would you actually get the point?), so here’s the translation:
"The reason is the Crash on the Russian stock market (MOEX index -33 percent) along with the collapse of the Russian State currency Ruble (-25 percent against the USD). Consequently, the billionaires lost more money in a single day than they had gained throughout the entire year so far."

Grund dafür ist der Crash am russischen Aktienmarkt (MOEX Index -33 Prozent) sowie der Absturz der russischen Staatswährung Rubel (-25 Prozent gegenüber USD). Die Milliardäre haben somit an nur einem Tag mehr Geld verloren, als sie bis dato im bisherigen Jahresverlauf hinzugewinnen konnten.

Alright, now it's your turn—tell me about our "Western oligarchs" and the decaying West...

**bold and enlarged:** there is absolutely no way they would "reconcile" because—

—unlucky French pundits are just blathering away—pundits who now have to shell out $100 billion to the US Army for weaponry, plus many, many more billions for "refined gas"... 😁

Regarding this supposed "crash" on the Russian exchange (calling it the "Russian exchange" sounds ridiculous—stock markets don't have a "nationality"😵)—

—perhaps we should dial back the hysteria a bit.... 🤔

I mean, it is well known how back in 2014, following the sanctions, all those "experts" were predicting exactly how many days or weeks it would take for Russia to go bankrupt.... 😵

And yet, quite the opposite happened after 2014.... 🤔

So, one really ought to wait a little longer—

—instead of quoting the predictions of miserable French commentators, whom Washington toys with even more than they toy with those clueless Ukrainians.... 👍

Nancy Gomez26 said:Why would the Chinese people accept the Japanese yen as a reserve currency? You surely meant the yuan.
If we are discussing the Chinese yuan as a potential global reserve currency, I have to disappoint you: it’s not going to happen. (The Chinese are well aware of this and don't actually want the yuan as a reserve currency; it's a double-edged sword regardless).
The primary, insurmountable obstacle is the absolute rule of the Party currently in power in China. Instead of the firm rule of law found in any functional nation—though "functional" is a relative term these days—you have something else entirely. No rational actor is going to put themselves in a position where the fate of their debt or credit ultimately rests on the whim of a Chinese Party Secretary. That is a non-starter for the yuan. There are other reasons, of course, but this one is an impassable wall for China's current political system and remains unacceptable to all other players in the global arena.

Yeah, the yuan—renminbi.

They haven't wanted to until recently, when they started tentatively opening up.
If this situation with Russia isn't a massive wake-up call, they'd have to be crazy. Building a sovereign, independent global financial system based on their own currency is an absolute top priority for them.

Carl Lee27 said:It looks like the Russian Ambassador to Poland is probably about to be declared persona non grata. From what I’m hearing, Poland is moving to completely sever diplomatic ties with Russia.

https://forsal.pl/swiat/rosja/artyku...h-krokach.html

It’s funny—back in the 1900s, the USSR was waving the red flag at the West, but now the EU is basically waving it toward the East. They've been circling the drain for a while; all they need now are some empty grain silos.

wiredseal7 said:Yeah, the yuan—renminbi.

They haven't wanted to until recently, when they started tentatively opening up.
If this situation with Russia isn't a massive wake-up call, they'd have to be crazy. Building a sovereign, independent global financial system based on their own currency is an absolute top priority for them.

That might be their priority, I suppose, but it feels impossible because America and Europe simply won't allow it—and frankly, those countries depend on China to survive. You can have all the factories and workers you want, but it doesn't mean much if nobody is buying your products. Look at the situation with Russia and their oil. They have plenty of it, yet they struggle to find anyone willing to take it. They’re practically offering free shipping at this point. 🤣 In the modern era, it isn't military hardware that determines who sits at the top; it’s GDP.

Amy Diaz222 said:**bold and enlarged:** there is absolutely no way they would "reconcile" because—

—unlucky French pundits are just blathering away—pundits who now have to shell out $100 billion to the US Army for weaponry, plus many, many more billions for "refined gas"... 😁

Regarding this supposed "crash" on the Russian exchange (calling it the "Russian exchange" sounds ridiculous—stock markets don't have a "nationality"😵)—

—perhaps we should dial back the hysteria a bit.... 🤔

I mean, it is well known how back in 2014, following the sanctions, all those "experts" were predicting exactly how many days or weeks it would take for Russia to go bankrupt.... 😵

And yet, quite the opposite happened after 2014.... 🤔

So, one really ought to wait a little longer—

—instead of quoting the predictions of miserable French commentators, whom Washington toys with even more than they toy with those clueless Ukrainians.... 👍

Man, honestly, I don't know what else people are going to try and read on this forum, good grief.... 🤦

Unlike what we saw with Mexico, this tactical move from Turkey was entirely predictable.☕

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/s...198277/photo/1



So, this is what sanctions actually look like in practice... And honestly, it’s going to keep rolling in like this—just a constant stream of small, medium, and massive headaches—until Putin's regime finally collapses. Russia will continue to bleed out, while the West just finds ways to adapt.

https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status...87748291002374

Boeing is essentially cutting off the supply line for spare parts.

Aeroflot’s fleet consists of 187 aircraft—and 177 of those are Boeings or Airbuses, which is about 94.6% of their lineup. They only have 10 Sukhoi-100s to show for it. The problem? Not a single domestic plane they currently own—or even have planned—is actually capable of handling long-haul flights.

Give it a few months, and those direct routes from Washington, D.C. to Vladivostok are going to vanish—unless they decide to start cannibalizing their own planes just to keep things moving.

Apple is pulling its business out of Russia as well—now, if all the other major tech players decide to follow suit... Russia is headed straight toward total technological isolation.

restlessscout5 said:Apple is pulling its business out of Russia as well—now, if all the other major tech players decide to follow suit... Russia is headed straight toward total technological isolation.

Long live the chaos; without Jabuchar’s products, the Russians will end up in a psych ward.😵

Jabuchar is pretty much the only player left in the smartphone game. If you aren't carrying an iPhone or using an iMac, then you're basically just a peasant with an Android..🤣😵

The landscape of mobile technology is shifting, and if you aren't paying attention to how certain international brands are aggressively carving out market share, you're missing the bigger picture. While most people in the States are content to just grab whatever is sitting on the shelf at Best Buy or clicking "buy now" on an Amazon listing, there is a much more complex power struggle happening behind the scenes. We’ve spent decades under the assumption that a few major players would dictate the terms of the smartphone market indefinitely, but that era is fading. You see these massive manufacturers from Asia pushing hard into the American consumer space, offering hardware that often punches way above its weight class compared to what we typically see from the big Silicon Valley giants. It isn't just about price points anymore; it's about ecosystem integration and raw specs that make the standard offerings feel a bit dated by comparison. It’s a calculated move. These companies aren't just trying to sell a device; they are trying to build a foothold in the US market that eventually makes them indispensable. They are playing a long game, and honestly, it's working better than most analysts predicted. If you think the dominance of the current heavyweights is permanent, you probably haven't been looking closely enough at the sheer momentum these emerging brands are building.

The latest reports regarding Boeing’s manufacturing struggles suggest that the situation isn't just a temporary hiccup, but rather a deeper systemic issue within their production lines. It seems like they are struggling to maintain the rigorous quality standards required for modern aviation, which inevitably leads to delays and significant scrutiny from federal regulators here in the States. When you look at how much pressure these massive aerospace giants face to meet delivery timelines, it becomes increasingly clear that cutting corners is a recipe for disaster, regardless of how much they try to smooth things over with public statements. If they can't get their assembly processes back under control soon, the ripple effects throughout the entire American aviation sector are going to be substantial.

Gerald Chavez7 said:https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status...87748291002374

Boeing is essentially cutting off the supply line for spare parts.

Aeroflot’s fleet consists of 187 aircraft—and 177 of those are Boeings or Airbuses, which is about 94.6% of their lineup. They only have 10 Sukhoi-100s to show for it. The problem? Not a single domestic plane they currently own—or even have planned—is actually capable of handling long-haul flights.

Give it a few months, and those direct routes from Washington, D.C. to Vladivostok are going to vanish—unless they decide to start cannibalizing their own planes just to keep things moving.

The Iranians figured out how to patch them up. Honestly, the Russians won't have to worry about Western safety standards much longer anyway.

I'm reading that Americans might ban them from flying altogether soon. About time—maybe finally force them to touch down in Anchorage.

restlessscout5 said:Apple is pulling its business out of Russia as well—now, if all the other major tech players decide to follow suit... Russia is headed straight toward total technological isolation.

Consumer electronics? That’s a different story—they won't stay isolated. I mean, what's stopping someone from opening a shop in China, buying a whole container of phones, and just shipping them over on a train?

The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has officially signed a decree prohibiting citizens from leaving the country with more than $10,000 in foreign currency, according to the Associated Press.

Lp