The start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 1)

The intelligence folks who nailed the timing on when the Russian invasion of Ukraine would kick off were actually predicting that Kyiv would fall in just three days.
It’d be some kind of miracle if that intel meant the madman decides to call an end to the invasion in three days—at least outside those lines in the Donbas. Whatever he's managed to kill out of pure, insane spite in the meantime, he's already done it. Even if he calls it quits now, he's already set Russia on a path toward becoming a permanent criminal state. We're right on the edge here, and I feel like we're getting closer to the drop with every passing hour.

Most Swedes and Finns don't even really want to join NATO. I mean, they've managed just fine without that useless organization all this time...

Here’s a link to what looks like the only live cam in Kyiv—those air raid sirens have been blaring for over an hour now, but nothing seems to be happening. Man, I don't know... are these Russians, or those Asians, or just straight-up animals?



Back home in the '90s, and Andrew Europejko probably remembers this too, I guess, a siren would go off for maybe a minute or two and then that was it. They wouldn't leave the danger warning on or keep announcing it for months like this. Sadly, I know because I spent the whole war living just about two miles from the front lines.

William Anderson5 said:You aren't exactly making a serious argument here.

It’s just pure demagoguery and hypocrisy at this point.😁

granitebison said:If you just glance at the headlines on any major news outlet, you’re left with this overwhelming sensation that the war is effectively over and Kyiv has all but fallen.
However, once you actually take the time to dig deeper and cross-reference with other sources, it becomes increasingly clear that the Russians haven't achieved any significant breakthroughs whatsoever.

This situation feels exactly like the aggression faced by the US during its own historical conflicts.
We're seeing the same pattern of crimes, the same looting, and the same senseless terror and violence.
In the end, Ukraine will come out on top, just as the US did when facing similar threats.

urbanotter said:Honestly, what's the real difference between a Russian dictatorship and our own version of democracy, where you can't even open your mouth without facing consequences?

Putko might have cleaned things up a bit, but he never even bothered telling the secretary to handle the termination notices or resignations.

And what exactly are we doing here on this forum, then?

Would something like CNN—which seems to uncover one massive scandal every single week—even exist in Russia? Half of their investigative journalists would have been murdered by now—and I mean that quite literally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...lled_in_Russia

"Quote:"

Toy said:I’ve been following this whole war on Twitter since day one, and honestly? It feels weirdly quiet—like, there’s almost zero actual news about any real movement on the ground. Just... nothing.

It’s honestly wild watching this—all I see is Ukrainians absolutely wrecking the Russians. They're taking down planes, swatting helicopters out of the sky, and picking off soldiers left and right... but when it comes to the other side? Nothing. Zero. Just total silence on that front.

Then again, you’ve got Zelenskyy over there calling for negotiations—just throwing it all out on the table.

Wait, if things are going so well for them, then why even bother? Seriously, what's the catch?

Man, the sheer amount of fake news flooding Twitter over the last 24 hours is just absolutely insane—it’s like everyone decided to turn into a conspiracy theorist overnight.
So, I was just scrolling through the news, and man, it’s grim—apparently, the Russians have started using scorched-earth tactics over in Kyiv, and the civilian casualty count is looking absolutely devastating. Just heavy stuff.

So, I saw this one "expert journalist" hanging around the forum earlier—you know the type—who was actually posting this morning claiming that Zelenskyy had already bolted out of Ukraine and that the Russians were practically knocking on the doors of the presidential palace. Total nonsense, obviously.

Igračka said:I’ve been following this conflict on Twitter since day one, and frankly, it strikes me as odd that there seems to be virtually no news regarding any actual territorial advances.

The narrative is exclusively about how Ukrainians are dismantling the Russians—downing planes, taking out helicopters, and thinning their ranks—yet there is nothing reported on the reverse.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy is calling for negotiations.

What is the point of that, if they are performing so well?

Any short-lived ceasefire serves the Ukrainians better, providing them the necessary breathing room to regroup and fortify their positions.
Nothing will come of it; both Putin and Zelenskyy are simply saying these things for the sake of hearing themselves speak.

silentsurfer3 said:"Quote:"

Man, the sheer amount of fake news flooding Twitter over the last 24 hours is just absolutely insane—it’s like everyone decided to turn into a conspiracy theorist overnight.
So, I was just scrolling through the news, and man, it’s grim—apparently, the Russians have started using scorched-earth tactics over in Kyiv, and the civilian casualty count is looking absolutely devastating. Just heavy stuff.

So, I saw this one "expert journalist" hanging around the forum earlier—you know the type—who was actually posting this morning claiming that Zelenskyy had already bolted out of Ukraine and that the Russians were practically knocking on the doors of the presidential palace. Total nonsense, obviously.

By its very design, Twitter is the perfect breeding ground for disinformation. Our domestic media outlets are nothing more than clickbait machines, and if you actually want objective information, you certainly won't find it by consulting the media outlets of the warring factions. For now, the BBC remains surprisingly reliable because they actually bother to label unverified reports as needing further confirmation.

Igračka said:I've been following this war on Twitter since day one, and honestly—it’s strange—there seems to be almost zero news regarding actual territorial progress.

All I see is how Ukrainians are absolutely tearing through the Russians—downing planes, taking out helicopters, and picking off soldiers—but nothing in return.

Then you have Zelenskyy calling for negotiations.

Why bother, if they're doing that well?

Obviously, this isn't your standard type of warfare. A force of 150,000 soldiers simply isn't enough to occupy a territory the size of the North American Peninsula with a population of 44 million.

Based on what we've seen so far, it looks like those border and coastal skirmishes are just diversions—the real objective was a direct strike on Kyiv to eliminate the leadership.

Judging by the reports of Chechen reinforcements arriving, it’s clear things are going much worse for the Russians than planned, and they've likely taken significant casualties over these last two days.

As for morale—it's obvious. An invader can't match the fighting spirit of someone defending their own home. At least he knows why he's fighting; the guy trying to conquer someone else's land is still second-guessing his reasons.

Edit: It would be quite the cinematic twist if this actor actually managed to beat Putin on the battlefield.
If that happened, the Russians wouldn't recover from the embarrassment for 150 years—though they've certainly handed themselves plenty of trouble already.

Joseph Cruz said:I’m reading reports suggesting that Zelenskyy has supposedly ordered a withdrawal from the Donbas to bolster defenses around Kyiv and Kharkiv. Doesn't that strike anyone else as a questionable move? They seem to have established solid, entrenched positions in the Donbas, but if they abandon those fortifications to move out onto open roads or exposed terrain, won't they just become much easier targets for the Russians?

They need to regroup—honestly, if they actually can pull off regroupping most of their troops, that's arguably good news. Let's be realistic: they aren't in a position to hold the entire country anyway. The priority is to survive as a sovereign state, maintaining control over enough major cities and keeping this government intact. If they can just hold out until the moment when it becomes glaringly obvious to the Russians that the cost is simply too high—whether that takes seven, ten, or fourteen days—then that constitutes a victory and a massive failure for Putin (though, given his track record, I find it unlikely he'll allow that to happen easily).

granitebison said:Any short-lived ceasefire serves the Ukrainians better, providing them the necessary breathing room to regroup and fortify their positions.
Nothing will come of it; both Putin and Zelenskyy are simply saying these things for the sake of hearing themselves speak.

We are discussing peace negotiations, not a ceasefire—that is a critical distinction. A ceasefire is an arrangement made on the ground to handle wounded personnel and civilians, or perhaps to facilitate a prisoner exchange. Peace negotiations, however, are conducted by diplomats in a neutral country with the specific goal of ending the conflict. In this particular context, peace negotiations are simply a euphemism for surrender.

loneskipper3 said:They need to regroup—honestly, if they actually can pull off regroupping most of their troops, that's arguably good news. Let's be realistic: they aren't in a position to hold the entire country anyway. The priority is to survive as a sovereign state, maintaining control over enough major cities and keeping this government intact. If they can just hold out until the moment when it becomes glaringly obvious to the Russians that the cost is simply too high—whether that takes seven, ten, or fourteen days—then that constitutes a victory and a massive failure for Putin (though, given his track record, I find it unlikely he'll allow that to happen easily).

This will drag on for another 2 or 3 days. This isn't World War II.

rustywalker82 said:The intelligence folks who nailed the timing on when the Russian invasion of Ukraine would kick off were actually predicting that Kyiv would fall in just three days.
It’d be some kind of miracle if that intel meant the madman decides to call an end to the invasion in three days—at least outside those lines in the Donbas. Whatever he's managed to kill out of pure, insane spite in the meantime, he's already done it. Even if he calls it quits now, he's already set Russia on a path toward becoming a permanent criminal state. We're right on the edge here, and I feel like we're getting closer to the drop with every passing hour.

I suspect China gave him a deadline. Basically, grab what you can by then, and then head straight to the negotiating table, while Ukraine stays whole. That means he’s got to install a puppet government and take the capital (whether it's Kyiv or Kharkiv) before that clock runs out.

It seems nobody even talks about an independent Donetsk or Luhansk anymore... everyone is just talking about a unified Ukraine.

That’s probably why they're attempting these suicidal landing operations—it's a total race against the clock.

Today, China released their five-point plan regarding Ukraine:

https://www.axios.com/china-russia-u...7f0c60593.html

Following a call with his British, EU and French counterparts, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi outlined Beijing's position on Ukraine in five points:

1.China "firmly advocates" abiding by the UN Charter and respecting the territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine.
2.The security of one country cannot be strengthened at the expense of another, and Russia is justified to have concerns about five rounds of NATO expansion.
3.China believes "all parties" should exercise restraint and protect civilian life and property to prevent a large-scale humanitarian crisis.
4.China supports "direct dialogue and negotiation between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible" and believes Ukraine "should be a bridge between East and West, not a frontier of great power confrontation."
5.The UN Security Council should be used to "facilitate a diplomatic solution" and "cool tensions rather than fuel them." China Has always opposed UN resolutions that invoke Chapter VII of The UN Charter, which authorizes military and non-military steps to "restore international peace and security."

Actually, four out of those five points don't really help the Russian aggression. Especially not if they want this to be anything other than a long, drawn-out mess.

Gregory Ramos3 said:Alright, I’m feeling a little poetic tonight, and honestly, one of my fellow forum ladies got me thinking with that whole thing about the girl 😬

So, picture this: Russia and Ukraine were in this intense, long-term relationship for years—walking hand in hand, going out to fancy dinners, the chemistry was just off the charts...

But then, a crisis hits, and suddenly Ukraine starts questioning everything, wondering if Russia is really the right partner for her. He’s a good guy, sure, but he’s also pretty controlling over a lot of things, and well, he was her first real love. She tells him she loves him, but she can't help but wonder if he’s being genuine or if he’s just playing her like all those other girls before her.

And you know how it goes—right in the middle of this relationship drama, this new guy swoops in. A total hunk of an American, incredibly handsome, loaded... promising her extravagant gifts, lifelong devotion, the royal treatment, and all the glitz and glamour of Hollywood.

Ukraine, being young and a bit naive, falls head over heels for America, but there's still this lingering connection to Russia, making it so incredibly hard to just walk away after everything they’ve shared.

Russia, acting like a total macho man, senses something is off and realizes he's being cheated on.

He tries to convince her he’s the one, that he loves her, and that life is better with him. At the same time, he’s threatening America, telling them to stay out of his business and leave his girl alone, or things are going to get ugly.

Now Ukraine is totally torn; on one hand, there's that shared history and those sweet memories with Russia, but on the other, she’s drawn to America and that Hollywood shine—all these new experiences she never got to try because her boyfriend wouldn't let her.

So this tension builds, and Russia gets increasingly aggressive trying to reclaim what he feels is his. When his tactics don't work, he loses his cool. Since he isn't quite sure he can take on America in a fair fight—because, let's face it, America is a powerhouse—he turns his frustration on Ukraine, beating her senseless just to make sure she never even dreams of being with anyone else, let alone America.

Man, it’s actually pretty tough to decide who a jury would ultimately blame for all those injuries... hmm. 🤔

P.S.

My apologies to the ladies on the forum; I am strictly against any kind of violence toward women!☕

Where on earth do you get the idea that America is what attracts Ukraine?
In Ukraine, a legitimate government was overthrown and replaced by American puppets. Where do you get the notion that the majority of the population is leaning toward America?

It's the exact same thing here. Why do you think our puppet government didn't have the guts to hold a referendum on joining NATO? What were they afraid of?
Why did we sneak into the EU by changing the referendum laws just a month before the vote? What were they afraid of?

That's the point. The Russians see it and say, "If you're going to install your own governments in Ukraine through force, why shouldn't we do the same?"

Albert81 said:To Europeans, the suffering of the people in Ukraine seems secondary to the vital necessity of keeping their own backsides warm and ensuring their economies remain functional...

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...87607422291968

And this is confirmed:

European utilities are set to buy tomorrow more Russian natural gas (from Gazprom) via Ukraine pipelines.

Yes, you read that right: Europe will be buying more natural gas. From Russia. Via Ukraine. Tomorrow.

I am hardly surprised.

Did anyone here genuinely believe that the British colonialists, the Americans, or the high-minded elites would actually step up to defend Ukrainians? They simply needed a useful idiot—some actor-boxer archetype—to drive up the price of gas and oil. American and British shale oil and gas corporations suffer losses when prices are low, making production unprofitable; they needed a catalyst.

It is the oldest trick in the book: convince a fool to go around the neighborhood slashing tires, while you quietly open a tire shop and a glass repair business. There have always been fools, and there have always been wars.

What concerns me more is that 99% of the people here in the States are idiots who think we will be defended tomorrow. We might be defended, but certainly in the same manner as the Ukrainians, or the Kurds... or how the Afghans were simply abandoned to fate, or how the Greeks were treated.

& some still cling to the delusion that Russia is a communist state. In reality, Russia operates under a capitalist system; they sell to anyone willing to pay. In the EU, and even through the swamp, it is the same capitalist system where they will buy from the devil himself if the price is right—just as they do in "communist" China. The most amusing part is watching those whining on internet forums.

If their television or refrigerator broke tomorrow, they would buy a Russian model without hesitation if it were merely 20% cheaper. If a Russian or Chinese product were half the price and allowed them to trade and earn a 40% margin by the day after tomorrow, those Russians and Chinese would instantly transform from hated enemies into best friends and primary business partners. Business is business, sentiments are sentiments, theory is theory, and practice is practice.

In practice, Americans buy Russian gas, oil, and coal, then naively sell LNG and coal back to the gullible Ukrainians as "democratic" coal and "free" LNG at five times the price. It is nobody's fault if you are an idiot who enjoys paying five times more for energy.

Gary Wilson said:"Wars don't just start on a Wednesday," or so the saying goes.
You have to take Russ at his word.

It’s all just Western propaganda and fake news anyway.
I'm sure Putin won't touch Ukraine.

casualtiger2 said:It’s all just Western propaganda and fake news anyway.
I'm sure Putin won't touch Ukraine.

Ever hear that old story about the boy who kept crying wolf?

boldotter2 said:I suspect China gave him a deadline. Basically, grab what you can by then, and then head straight to the negotiating table, while Ukraine stays whole. That means he’s got to install a puppet government and take the capital (whether it's Kyiv or Kharkiv) before that clock runs out.

It seems nobody even talks about an independent Donetsk or Luhansk anymore... everyone is just talking about a unified Ukraine.

That’s probably why they're attempting these suicidal landing operations—it's a total race against the clock.

Today, China released their five-point plan regarding Ukraine:

https://www.axios.com/china-russia-u...7f0c60593.html

Following a call with his British, EU and French counterparts, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi outlined Beijing's position on Ukraine in five points:

1.China "firmly advocates" abiding by the UN Charter and respecting the territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine.
2.The security of one country cannot be strengthened at the expense of another, and Russia is justified to have concerns about five rounds of NATO expansion.
3.China believes "all parties" should exercise restraint and protect civilian life and property to prevent a large-scale humanitarian crisis.
4.China supports "direct dialogue and negotiation between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible" and believes Ukraine "should be a bridge between East and West, not a frontier of great power confrontation."
5.The UN Security Council should be used to "facilitate a diplomatic solution" and "cool tensions rather than fuel them." China Has always opposed UN resolutions that invoke Chapter VII of The UN Charter, which authorizes military and non-military steps to "restore international peace and security."

Actually, four out of those five points don't really help the Russian aggression. Especially not if they want this to be anything other than a long, drawn-out mess.

Yeah, it could be similar to how the U.S. gives the green light to Israelis during those periodic incursions into Palestine.
My take depends entirely on the body count. If we start seeing mass casualties, then my theory goes out the window and this war won't have an end in sight.

rustywalker82 said:Yeah, it could be similar to how the U.S. gives the green light to Israelis during those periodic incursions into Palestine.
My take depends entirely on the body count. If we start seeing mass casualties, then my theory goes out the window and this war won't have an end in sight.

It all comes down to human suffering, and honestly, even more so if things start wrecking the global economy.
I guess what China actually wants is for the West to pivot all that cash toward beefing up NATO and churning out weapons instead of investing in Chinese industry. For example, Americans are asking for $6.5 billion from the budget to help Ukraine. That’s basically $6.5 billion less flowing into China's pockets.

BTW, the Chinese people were pretty restrained at the Security Council today during the vote on the Ukraine resolution. It was a resolution drafted by Americans that mentions the word "aggression" about a million times. Russia used their veto, obviously. Nobody else was against it, though.

Knowing a few Ukrainians, I’d say the more accurate version of the story is that Ukraine was just with that first guy out of pure necessity, mostly because there wasn't anyone else around. Plus, back when she was young and still finding her footing, he showed these aggressive streaks that really scared her, so she probably felt like she couldn't say no. But honestly, as soon as some other guy came along, she finally started feeling free enough to move on.