Omicron variant

Yeah, exactly. 🙂

Sending some love back from the guy in the profile pic on the last page. 👍

Dennis Allen said:25x1 = 25%

It’s like looking at a single puzzle piece and ignoring the whole picture! You missed the most important part of the article and just quoted that one sensational last sentence...

Think of it like this: if a booster only bumps up our protection against Omicron by about 25%, it’s like trying to stop a massive rainstorm with just a small cocktail umbrella!

If you plugged that 25% directly into an epidemiological model, how much would it actually move the needle? I'd love to see how much that would flatten the curve and dial down the transmission!

So, when it comes to that 25% neutralization boost, does that mean we should be pushing for mandatory vaccinations? It’s like asking if a little extra seasoning makes a meal a requirement—it depends on how you look at the recipe!

Dennis Allen said:

Think of it like this: if a booster only bumps up our protection against Omicron by about 25%, it’s like trying to stop a massive rainstorm with just a small cocktail umbrella!

If you plugged that 25% directly into an epidemiological model, how much would it actually move the needle? I'd love to see how much that would flatten the curve and dial down the transmission!

So, when it comes to that 25% neutralization boost, does that mean we should be pushing for mandatory vaccinations? It’s like asking if a little extra seasoning makes a meal a requirement—it depends on how you look at the recipe!

Think of it like this: if a booster only bumps up our protection against Omicron by about 25%, it’s like trying to stop a massive rainstorm with just a small cocktail umbrella!

If you plugged that 25% directly into an epidemiological model, how much would it actually move the needle? I'd love to see how much that would flatten the curve and dial down the transmission!

So, when it comes to that 25% neutralization boost, does that mean we should be pushing for mandatory vaccinations? It’s like asking if a little extra seasoning makes a meal a requirement—it depends on how you look at the recipe!

Think of it like this: if a booster only bumps up our protection against Omicron by about 25%, it’s like trying to stop a massive rainstorm with just a small cocktail umbrella!

If you plugged that 25% directly into an epidemiological model, how much would it actually move the needle? I'd love to see how much that would flatten the curve and dial down the transmission!

So, when it comes to that 25% neutralization boost, does that mean we should be pushing for mandatory vaccinations? It’s like asking if a little extra seasoning makes a meal a requirement—it depends on how you look at the recipe!
It all depends on the clinical presentation and mortality rates caused by omicron. We shouldn't look at the situation through the lens of the USA, but rather how things are playing out in Europe. I find it hard to believe that mandating vaccines is worth the effort at this stage.

urbanwalker72 said:Think of it like this: if a booster only bumps up our protection against Omicron by about 25%, it’s like trying to stop a massive rainstorm with just a small cocktail umbrella!

If you plugged that 25% directly into an epidemiological model, how much would it actually move the needle? I'd love to see how much that would flatten the curve and dial down the transmission!

So, when it comes to that 25% neutralization boost, does that mean we should be pushing for mandatory vaccinations? It’s like asking if a little extra seasoning makes a meal a requirement—it depends on how you look at the recipe!

Think of it like this: if a booster only bumps up our protection against Omicron by about 25%, it’s like trying to stop a massive rainstorm with just a small cocktail umbrella!

If you plugged that 25% directly into an epidemiological model, how much would it actually move the needle? I'd love to see how much that would flatten the curve and dial down the transmission!

So, when it comes to that 25% neutralization boost, does that mean we should be pushing for mandatory vaccinations? It’s like asking if a little extra seasoning makes a meal a requirement—it depends on how you look at the recipe!
It all depends on the clinical presentation and mortality rates caused by omicron. We shouldn't look at the situation through the lens of the USA, but rather how things are playing out in Europe. I find it hard to believe that mandating vaccines is worth the effort at this stage.
It all depends on the clinical presentation and mortality rates caused by omicron. We shouldn't look at the situation through the lens of the USA, but rather how things are playing out in Europe. I find it hard to believe that mandating vaccines is worth the effort at this stage.


And will it become the dominant strain compared to Delta

meaning, if omicron takes the lead...

urbanwalker72 said:Think of it like this: if a booster only bumps up our protection against Omicron by about 25%, it’s like trying to stop a massive rainstorm with just a small cocktail umbrella!

If you plugged that 25% directly into an epidemiological model, how much would it actually move the needle? I'd love to see how much that would flatten the curve and dial down the transmission!

So, when it comes to that 25% neutralization boost, does that mean we should be pushing for mandatory vaccinations? It’s like asking if a little extra seasoning makes a meal a requirement—it depends on how you look at the recipe!

Think of it like this: if a booster only bumps up our protection against Omicron by about 25%, it’s like trying to stop a massive rainstorm with just a small cocktail umbrella!

If you plugged that 25% directly into an epidemiological model, how much would it actually move the needle? I'd love to see how much that would flatten the curve and dial down the transmission!

So, when it comes to that 25% neutralization boost, does that mean we should be pushing for mandatory vaccinations? It’s like asking if a little extra seasoning makes a meal a requirement—it depends on how you look at the recipe!
It all depends on the clinical presentation and mortality rates caused by omicron. We shouldn't look at the situation through the lens of the USA, but rather how things are playing out in Europe. I find it hard to believe that mandating vaccines is worth the effort at this stage.
It all depends on the clinical presentation and mortality rates caused by omicron. We shouldn't look at the situation through the lens of the USA, but rather how things are playing out in Europe. I find it hard to believe that mandating vaccines is worth the effort at this stage.
In principle, I'm on board with that, but if this variant ends up driving up death rates among younger people significantly, then mandatory shots won't even be an issue—unless, of course, the damage already done by the "experts" to public trust in the medical establishment proves to be irreparable. We really don't want to end up in a situation like that fable about the boy who cried wolf, where nobody listens when there's a genuine crisis because they've been burned too many times before.

https://pictr.com/images/2021/12/09/BM40zX.jpg

So, check this out. That Pfizer's study on Omicron neutralization that just wrapped up yesterday? It’s looking pretty much like that CDC study (the one from DW) we saw before. A third dose shows results that aren't quite as strong as neutralizing Delta with a third shot, but it's basically on par with how Delta looked just a month after the second dose.
Or, if you want to look at it another way, it’s like five times better than what we saw neutralizing Beta a month after the second dose.

Anyway, that’s the deal. Turns out Fauci actually called this move perfectly just two weeks ago—unlike some people who already wrote off the idea that the older vaccines could still neutralize anything at all.

rustywalker82 said:https://pictr.com/images/2021/12/09/BM40zX.jpg

So, check this out. That Pfizer's study on Omicron neutralization that just wrapped up yesterday? It’s looking pretty much like that CDC study (the one from DW) we saw before. A third dose shows results that aren't quite as strong as neutralizing Delta with a third shot, but it's basically on par with how Delta looked just a month after the second dose.
Or, if you want to look at it another way, it’s like five times better than what we saw neutralizing Beta a month after the second dose.

Anyway, that’s the deal. Turns out Fauci actually called this move perfectly just two weeks ago—unlike some people who already wrote off the idea that the older vaccines could still neutralize anything at all.

But looking at your image, there isn't any Delta (blue) data for 21 days after the second dose, so I'm not sure how we can say they're the same if that specific data point is missing... 😬

Yeah, you don't see any Delta on that chart after two doses.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...1208005542/en/
So here's the actual report where they lay it out:

The Geometric Mean Titer (GMT) of neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant measured in samples was 154 (after three doses), compared to 398 against the Delta variant (after three doses) and 155 against the ancestral strain (after two doses).

And this part is pretty huge:

A third dose also strongly increases the levels of CD8+ T-cells against multiple spike protein epitopes, which are believed to correlate with protection from severe disease.
Compared to the ancestral virus, most of these epitopes remain unchanged in the Omicron spike variant.

Over in the United Kingdom, they're estimating there are about 10,000 infections with this new variant. It’s really starting to crawl...

Currently, the United Kingdom has recorded 568 confirmed cases of the variant, but the United States Secretary of Health told US lawmakers Wednesday evening that "we know that the actual number of infections will be significantly higher."

"The CDC estimates that the [current] number of infections will be around 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases and so the number of infections is closer to 10,000," he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/the-...t-spreads.html

Right at the end of the article, the CEO of Pfizer leaves the door open for a fourth dose. Since our Union ordered enough vaccines for the entire human race—plus any extra aliens who might want one—I honestly think we're in the clear, both us folks and the Pfizer shareholders. 😬

--

South Africa saw a 111% spike in just one week (general infection rates). For now, deaths aren't following the trend, which is their second-largest wave so far—maybe it's because it's summer there, or maybe it's because of this new strain they claim is already dominant.
By all accounts, this thing is going to turn into the biggest wave yet. Usually, hospitalizations and deaths lag behind by about two weeks.

Just one more reason to brace for the January blues... I don't see this becoming the dominant strain in America throughout 2021, though it might make its move in January...

On a different note, has anyone stumbled upon research regarding re-infection rates in South Africa based on when the initial infection occurred? Basically—does having caught it earlier (during their first wave back in the Spring of 2020) actually increase the risk of getting it again, or not?

What's the latest news from around the neighborhood? Any big updates lately?

Your local (infectious disease) epidemiologist.

Omicron update: December 13th

Katelyn Jetelina
December 13th

We’re getting hit with one lab result and epidemiological data dump after another, and honestly? The pieces of the puzzle are finally starting to click together...

So, let's talk about Vaccine Effectiveness now. Ever wonder if the numbers actually hold up? It’s one of those things you see floating around all over the news, right? You gotta look at the data. Is it working like they said it would? Just something to chew on while you're sipping your morning coffee. Any thoughts?

So, we’re looking at eight different lab studies right now, and honestly? They’re all basically singing the same tune. It turns out Omicron really takes a massive bite out of those neutralizing antibody levels from the standard two-dose mRNA series when you stack it up against the older variants. Pretty wild, right?

Look, we really need to clear something up here. A drop in neutralizing antibodies isn't the same thing as a drop in vaccine effectiveness. Seriously, why does everyone conflate the two? Our immune systems aren't just one-trick ponies; they’re incredibly adaptive and diverse. You've got other types of antibodies in the mix, plus B-cells acting like little antibody factories, and then those T-cells serving as our heavy-duty backup defense. It’s all connected. That's why you can't just stare at one metric—you have to look at the whole data set to see the full picture, right?

We finally got our first real look at how vaccines hold up in the wild against Omicron over in the United Kingdom. The CDC just dropped this massive report comparing 56,439 Delta cases against 581 Omicron ones from late November to early December 2021. And get this—vaccine effectiveness against an Omicron infection sits at about 30-40% after those first two Pfizer shots. But once you add the booster? It jumps up to 70-80%. Isn't that absolutely wild? It basically proves that boosters are still doing the heavy lifting when it comes to cutting down transmission. Truly incredible stuff, right?

Check out the CDC source right here.
So, three more T-cell studies dropped last week. Seriously, these things are absolute game-changers for our immune systems, right? Think of them as our heavy-duty second line of defense. If those neutralizing antibodies miss their mark and can't stop the virus before it hits our cells, that's when the T-cells step up to the plate. It’s actually pretty wild how much harder it is for viruses to dodge T-cell protection. While antibody responses usually just zero in on a few specific spots, T-cells basically cover almost the entire spike protein. It's like having a massive security net instead of just a few guards at the door. And honestly? The results from these studies look incredible. T-cells are still holding their own against Omicron. So, even if we see a huge spike in people catching it, we should mostly be looking at staying out of the hospital. Isn't that a relief?

With this data in hand, the whole idea of an Omicron-specific vaccine is starting to look pretty shaky, right? Honestly, we’re going to see some massive debates about this over the next few months. It’s going to be wild watching both sides go at it. I can't wait to hear what everyone thinks!

So, I was just thinking about that whole Infection-induced Immunity study. You ever get those deep dives where you just start questioning everything? It’s wild how much stuff changes once you actually look at the data. Makes you wonder, doesn't it? Just one of those things that stays on your mind.

So, I was looking over this study from the weekend, and man, things are getting interesting! It turns out those neutralizing antibodies in people who already caught Alpha, Beta, or Delta? They totally managed to latch onto Omicron too. Pretty wild, right? And get this—the folks who were both vaccinated and previously infected (or vice versa) showed an incredibly strong response against Omicron. Talk about a powerhouse combo!

Look, just like the vaccines themselves, antibody neutralization isn't some perfect, silver bullet solution. We really need to be looking at what's actually happening out there in the real world. Just last week, a study out of South Africa showed that reinfection rates are jumping about three times higher with Omicron compared to when we were dealing with Delta. And get this—last Friday, the CDC released their own analysis confirming the trend. Out of 329 people identified with an Omicron infection during that window, 17 of them (about 4.9%) had already been infected before. That puts the Omicron reinfection rate at roughly 3 to 8 times higher than what we saw with Delta. Pretty wild, right?

What's the deal with everything happening down in South Africa lately? Just looking at the state of affairs over there... it's wild, right? Makes you wonder how things are actually playing out on the ground. Anyone else keeping an eye on this?

Omicron is still sweeping through South Africa. It looked like things might have finally peaked on Friday and Saturday, but then Sunday hit us with a massive surge in numbers—we went from about 19,000 cases on Friday to over 37,000 on Sunday! Talk about a rollercoaster, right? Apparently, South Africa is saying this spike was mostly due to some technical glitches with their reporting systems. So, are the cases actually climbing even higher? Who knows! We probably just need a few days for the data to catch up and stabilize. Honestly, why aren't we looking more at the 7-day rolling averages instead of these wild daily swings? That’s the real key to seeing what's actually happening.

Hospitalization numbers for COVID-19 in South Africa are still looking pretty low. But hey, we’re hitting that 3-4 week lag we usually see with hospitalizations, so jumping to conclusions right now would be a mistake.

If those hospital numbers stay low, it points to one of two things happening:

Immunity is actually doing its job against severe illness (just like we guessed earlier); or,

Omicron just causes milder sickness.

We really need a sample size we can actually generalize to tell which one it is: How are the seniors handling Omicron? What about people who haven't been infected before? The unvaccinated? We’re still in the dark.

If hospitalizations and deaths in South Africa stay low despite high case counts, a lot of folks might think the SARS-CoV-2 crisis there is basically over. Sure, the virus will still swirl around—people will still end up in the hospital or pass away—but it won't look like the chaos we saw earlier in the pandemic. Their hospitals won't be overwhelmed; they've got enough of an immunity wall. If that happens in South Africa, will the same story play out in other countries? Sadly, no clue; we're just at the mercy of time.

State of Affairs - United States

Thirty states have confirmed Omicron cases, though we can safely bet it's already hit all 50 states by now.

(NYT)
We finally have enough data to estimate the reproduction number (basically, how infectious it is) here in the US. And man, it doesn't look great: R(t) = 3. With transmission this high, cases are doubling every ~3-4 days, so Omicron is going to easily become the dominant variant in the coming weeks.

That R(t) looks similar to what we're seeing in places like Germany and South Africa. Nothing is stopping Omicron on its path. As time goes on, that R(t) should start looking different between countries because of a ton of factors: different behaviors (public health measures), genetics, patchy immunity, age distribution, and more.

Twitter Trevor Bedford
Sadly, Omicron is taking over at a terrible time: for the first time in months, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all climbing.

(NYT)
Yesterday, 1,288 souls were lost to COVID-19. According to reports from the Kaiser Family Foundation, 163,000 deaths from COVID-19 since June 2021 could have been prevented by vaccination. A true national tragedy.

Just like with Delta, news about Omicron is driving up vaccination rates, especially when it comes to boosters. Is this a silver lining for new variants? Maybe.

Bottom Line: The data suggests immunity will keep a huge chunk of people out of the hospital. But the million (or billion?) dollar question remains: Is the wall of immunity high enough to prevent our hospitals from being flooded? Only time will tell.

So, according to Worldometer, South Africa—the place everyone’s pointing at as the source for this new variant—has been seeing a pretty massive surge in positive cases over the last week. We're looking at 135,803 total cases compared to just 171 deaths, which is wild considering they've got a population north of 60 million people.

Some frantic guy from the United Kingdom is claiming they've got one death from Omicron and that the world is basically ending. ☕

Cheers

mellownomad7 said:Some frantic guy from the United Kingdom is claiming they've got one death from Omicron and that the world is basically ending. ☕

Cheers

The original article actually says "with Omicron," but our media outlets always insist on translating it as "from Omicron."

Matthew Jackson2 said:The original article actually says "with Omicron," but our media outlets always insist on translating it as "from Omicron."

Sure, you could argue they died because of the omicron variant. 🕺

death of patient with the omicron variant

Carol Jackson2 said:Sure, you could argue they died because of the omicron variant. 🕺

death of patient with the omicron variant

Sure, you can "interpret" things if you really want to play word games, but let’s be honest—a death resulting from the Omicron variant isn't some philosophical riddle; it has a very specific, very literal meaning. If you don't have hard evidence to back up your little alternative reading, then you really ought to stick to the translation that accounts for all the valid interpretations, because otherwise, you aren't just interpreting the news—you're straight-up rewriting it.

Matthew Jackson2 said:Sure, you can "interpret" things if you really want to play word games, but let’s be honest—a death resulting from the Omicron variant isn't some philosophical riddle; it has a very specific, very literal meaning. If you don't have hard evidence to back up your little alternative reading, then you really ought to stick to the translation that accounts for all the valid interpretations, because otherwise, you aren't just interpreting the news—you're straight-up rewriting it.

I read in English, and that’s how I interpreted it. "With Omicron" isn't the same thing as "with COVID."

Translators shouldn't just translate based on what they think they heard if they haven't actually verified it.

mellownomad7 said:Some frantic guy from the United Kingdom is claiming they've got one death from Omicron and that the world is basically ending. ☕

Cheers

Pih.
Total amateur.

"Alarming predictions regarding the spread of Omicron in Norway: 'We could see up to 300,000 infections per day'"

"Norway has introduced a new set of measures to curb COVID, which includes banning alcohol service in bars and restaurants."

https://www.reuters.com/business/health/norway-measures-covid-spread-2021-12-01

Well, I guess the pandemic is officially wrapped up by February then...

Why should we be losing sleep over infection numbers if only a tiny fraction actually end up in the hospital? 🤔
And honestly, looking at the data right now, it’s tracking lower than Delta did.