Omicron variant

It feels like people are still just scrolling through mainstream headlines, grabbing whatever garbage they churn out and sharing it without even a second thought. Everywhere I look, it’s clear how much is actually misunderstood. This is especially true regarding hospitalization rates—which is really what matters right now—but we have to remember there are several pre-print papers floating around that we simply can't treat as established facts yet. Look, I get being cautious after the mess we dealt with last year, but trying to sell the public the exact same narrative for the third time? That’s just foolishness in my book.

If this whole booster strategy falls flat, public trust is going to crater. Once that happens, you'll see governments panicking and rolling out absolutely brainless measures that could trigger total chaos. I'm really crossing my fingers that we don't head down that path.

The honest truth is we still don't know how much weight intrinsically carries compared to Delta. In other words—it’s probably milder if you're looking at reinfections (since the patient actually has some sort of immune response to work with)—but that doesn't mean it's any less dangerous for people who haven't had it yet. Actually, it doesn't even seem likely that it would be.

Nathan Evans78 said:It feels like people are still just scrolling through mainstream headlines, grabbing whatever garbage they churn out and sharing it without even a second thought. Everywhere I look, it’s clear how much is actually misunderstood. This is especially true regarding hospitalization rates—which is really what matters right now—but we have to remember there are several pre-print papers floating around that we simply can't treat as established facts yet. Look, I get being cautious after the mess we dealt with last year, but trying to sell the public the exact same narrative for the third time? That’s just foolishness in my book.

If this whole booster strategy falls flat, public trust is going to crater. Once that happens, you'll see governments panicking and rolling out absolutely brainless measures that could trigger total chaos. I'm really crossing my fingers that we don't head down that path.

🤣🤣

You completely missed the point of what I was saying. 🙏🙏

And honestly, I won't even go down the rabbit hole of speculating about who is reading what—or how much! 🤣

Susan Martin4 said:Why should we be losing sleep over infection numbers if only a tiny fraction actually end up in the hospital? 🤔
And honestly, looking at the data right now, it’s tracking lower than Delta did.

There's more than one layer to this problem—really, it goes quite deep.
First off—since the virus is mutating within a population where HIV is already extremely prevalent—there’s no way to be certain we haven't missed a piece of the puzzle. What if this next mutation—and let's face it, more are likely coming—finds a way to bypass or crash a person's immune system upon entry? If that happens, and mild symptoms are followed by sudden nausea or a total immune collapse... things could get incredibly dangerous.
It’s spreading 3 to 4 times faster than Delta—which is pretty scary, honestly. And what's even worse? Unlike the previous variants, it seems like this one is traveling through ventilation systems—think airplanes, ships, offices, or malls... things that have been confirmed by officials over in the European Union and the UK. I've heard stories of people—fully vaccinated and tested—boarding a plane, keeping their distance, testing negative right after landing, and then suddenly developing symptoms just two or three days later. Isn't that wild?
The third—and honestly the best—example comes from Norway. At a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over 80 of them ended up catching Omicron. Every single one was vaccinated, and everyone was perfectly healthy leading up to it. It just goes to show that the virus can bypass the vaccine's effects. Is there even a difference between being vaccinated or not at this point?

They aren't shutting down the Fed for no reason... they know there's a real risk out there—and anything could happen.

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - It looks like two shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine are providing roughly 70% protection against hospitalization in South Africa in recent weeks, according to a major real-world study on the potential impact of Omicron that came out on Tuesday, all while the nation deals with a massive surge in infections tied to this new variant.

The study released by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery (NASDAQ😁ISCA) Health, analyzed over 211,000 positive COVID-19 test results between November 15 and December 7, with approximately 78,000 of those being linked to Omicron.

The 78,000 results are not confirmed Omicron cases, meaning the study is not able to draw conclusive findings about the variant labelled "of concern" by the World Health Organization.

A little bit of good news, even if it is based on partial information. ☕

crimsonhawk20 said:There's more than one layer to this problem—really, it goes quite deep.
First off—since the virus is mutating within a population where HIV is already extremely prevalent—there’s no way to be certain we haven't missed a piece of the puzzle. What if this next mutation—and let's face it, more are likely coming—finds a way to bypass or crash a person's immune system upon entry? If that happens, and mild symptoms are followed by sudden nausea or a total immune collapse... things could get incredibly dangerous.
It’s spreading 3 to 4 times faster than Delta—which is pretty scary, honestly. And what's even worse? Unlike the previous variants, it seems like this one is traveling through ventilation systems—think airplanes, ships, offices, or malls... things that have been confirmed by officials over in the European Union and the UK. I've heard stories of people—fully vaccinated and tested—boarding a plane, keeping their distance, testing negative right after landing, and then suddenly developing symptoms just two or three days later. Isn't that wild?
The third—and honestly the best—example comes from Norway. At a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over 80 of them ended up catching Omicron. Every single one was vaccinated, and everyone was perfectly healthy leading up to it. It just goes to show that the virus can bypass the vaccine's effects. Is there even a difference between being vaccinated or not at this point?

They aren't shutting down the Fed for no reason... they know there's a real risk out there—and anything could happen.

Just because it was first detected in one spot doesn't mean that's necessarily where it crawled out of. It was later identified in samples from across Europe that had been taken much earlier.

That said, even if it did originate right there, I’d say your level of anxiety is roughly comparable to worrying about a random meteor hitting your house.

Second, this thing spreads three to four times faster than Delta. Even worse, unlike previous variants, it seems it's spreading through ventilation systems too—think airplanes, ships, office buildings, malls—which has been confirmed by the relevant authorities in the European Union and the UK. You have people who were vaccinated and tested boarding a plane, maintaining distance, testing negative upon landing, and then developing full-blown symptoms just two or three days later.

But wait, was every single vaccinated person actually tested? And was the specific test they used even capable of detecting this particular strain?

Look, we already know that vaccinated individuals are far more susceptible to Omicron than they were to Delta, so if not everyone was tested, or if the tests themselves couldn't catch Omicron, that offers a much more logical explanation than suggesting the virus is somehow fundamentally changing its physical particle properties. The coronavirus spreads via aerosols, which means any filter capable of blocking Delta should inherently block Omicron, because the virus resides in droplets of essentially the same size regardless of the strain.

Of course, that assumes the filter was functioning correctly in the first place. If it wasn't, then a single infected person could be responsible for a massive outbreak.

Third, the best example comes from Norway, where at a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over eighty of them caught Omicron. Every single one of them was vaccinated and perfectly healthy until that moment. This proves the virus is successfully bypassing the efficacy of the vaccines. Being vaccinated versus unvaccinated is effectively the same thing here.

They aren't shutting down the UK for no reason... they know the danger is real and that anything could happen.

And remember, when we were all warning that the emergence of a variant like this was inevitable, we were just dismissed as conspiracy theorists...

Matthew Jackson2 said:Just because it was first detected in one spot doesn't mean that's necessarily where it crawled out of. It was later identified in samples from across Europe that had been taken much earlier.

That said, even if it did originate right there, I’d say your level of anxiety is roughly comparable to worrying about a random meteor hitting your house.

Second, this thing spreads three to four times faster than Delta. Even worse, unlike previous variants, it seems it's spreading through ventilation systems too—think airplanes, ships, office buildings, malls—which has been confirmed by the relevant authorities in the European Union and the UK. You have people who were vaccinated and tested boarding a plane, maintaining distance, testing negative upon landing, and then developing full-blown symptoms just two or three days later.

But wait, was every single vaccinated person actually tested? And was the specific test they used even capable of detecting this particular strain?

Look, we already know that vaccinated individuals are far more susceptible to Omicron than they were to Delta, so if not everyone was tested, or if the tests themselves couldn't catch Omicron, that offers a much more logical explanation than suggesting the virus is somehow fundamentally changing its physical particle properties. The coronavirus spreads via aerosols, which means any filter capable of blocking Delta should inherently block Omicron, because the virus resides in droplets of essentially the same size regardless of the strain.

Of course, that assumes the filter was functioning correctly in the first place. If it wasn't, then a single infected person could be responsible for a massive outbreak.

Third, the best example comes from Norway, where at a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over eighty of them caught Omicron. Every single one of them was vaccinated and perfectly healthy until that moment. This proves the virus is successfully bypassing the efficacy of the vaccines. Being vaccinated versus unvaccinated is effectively the same thing here.

They aren't shutting down the UK for no reason... they know the danger is real and that anything could happen.

And remember, when we were all warning that the emergence of a variant like this was inevitable, we were just dismissed as conspiracy theorists...

Hold on, hold on, hold on—are you actually claiming Omicron emerged in a vaccinated Norway?

Since we're playing the "we warned you" game—Africa has been cited for at least six months as the perfect breeding ground for new variants due to low vaccination rates. Do I really need to go hunting for links to prove that?

Gerald Chavez7 said:Hold on, hold on, hold on—are you actually claiming Omicron emerged in a vaccinated Norway?

Since we're playing the "we warned you" game—Africa has been cited for at least six months as the perfect breeding ground for new variants due to low vaccination rates. Do I really need to go hunting for links to prove that?

And do you even know who the index case for Omicron was? Even with a vaccination rate of only 25%, it still ranks as the second or third most vaccinated country out of all 54 African nations.

Of course I don't know. For all we know, we don't even know if patient zero was ever actually in the Jar...

Gerald Chavez7 said:Of course I don't know. For all we know, we don't even know if patient zero was ever actually in the Jar...

Look, I have no idea where patient zero actually surfaced, but I do know that regarding the claim made by crimsonhawk20—that it originated in Africa—we simply lack the evidence to back that up.

What we actually observe is that highly vaccinated nations are still seeing high incidence rates, which means we can't just rule out the possibility that the variant emerged right there in their own backyard. My thinking goes like this: if a strain evolved in Africa specifically to bypass vaccine-induced immunity, it wouldn't actually gain much of an evolutionary advantage there, since vaccination rates aren't nearly as high; without other specific advantages present in that population, other strains would likely just outcompete it. On the flip side, you have to consider that a strain capable of evading vaccine-induced immunity provides a massive evolutionary leap in countries with high vaccination coverage. It’s basic biological pressure, really.

Matthew Jackson2 said:Just because it was first detected in one spot doesn't mean that's necessarily where it crawled out of. It was later identified in samples from across Europe that had been taken much earlier.

That said, even if it did originate right there, I’d say your level of anxiety is roughly comparable to worrying about a random meteor hitting your house.

Second, this thing spreads three to four times faster than Delta. Even worse, unlike previous variants, it seems it's spreading through ventilation systems too—think airplanes, ships, office buildings, malls—which has been confirmed by the relevant authorities in the European Union and the UK. You have people who were vaccinated and tested boarding a plane, maintaining distance, testing negative upon landing, and then developing full-blown symptoms just two or three days later.

But wait, was every single vaccinated person actually tested? And was the specific test they used even capable of detecting this particular strain?

Look, we already know that vaccinated individuals are far more susceptible to Omicron than they were to Delta, so if not everyone was tested, or if the tests themselves couldn't catch Omicron, that offers a much more logical explanation than suggesting the virus is somehow fundamentally changing its physical particle properties. The coronavirus spreads via aerosols, which means any filter capable of blocking Delta should inherently block Omicron, because the virus resides in droplets of essentially the same size regardless of the strain.

Of course, that assumes the filter was functioning correctly in the first place. If it wasn't, then a single infected person could be responsible for a massive outbreak.

Third, the best example comes from Norway, where at a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over eighty of them caught Omicron. Every single one of them was vaccinated and perfectly healthy until that moment. This proves the virus is successfully bypassing the efficacy of the vaccines. Being vaccinated versus unvaccinated is effectively the same thing here.

They aren't shutting down the UK for no reason... they know the danger is real and that anything could happen.

And remember, when we were all warning that the emergence of a variant like this was inevitable, we were just dismissed as conspiracy theorists...

Exactly. But it also makes you wonder—how long was that strain actually circulating in the JAR before they even confirmed it? Especially since the symptoms were so mild... could it have been around for months?

Matthew Jackson2 said:Just because it was first detected in one spot doesn't mean that's necessarily where it crawled out of. It was later identified in samples from across Europe that had been taken much earlier.

That said, even if it did originate right there, I’d say your level of anxiety is roughly comparable to worrying about a random meteor hitting your house.

Second, this thing spreads three to four times faster than Delta. Even worse, unlike previous variants, it seems it's spreading through ventilation systems too—think airplanes, ships, office buildings, malls—which has been confirmed by the relevant authorities in the European Union and the UK. You have people who were vaccinated and tested boarding a plane, maintaining distance, testing negative upon landing, and then developing full-blown symptoms just two or three days later.

But wait, was every single vaccinated person actually tested? And was the specific test they used even capable of detecting this particular strain?

Look, we already know that vaccinated individuals are far more susceptible to Omicron than they were to Delta, so if not everyone was tested, or if the tests themselves couldn't catch Omicron, that offers a much more logical explanation than suggesting the virus is somehow fundamentally changing its physical particle properties. The coronavirus spreads via aerosols, which means any filter capable of blocking Delta should inherently block Omicron, because the virus resides in droplets of essentially the same size regardless of the strain.

Of course, that assumes the filter was functioning correctly in the first place. If it wasn't, then a single infected person could be responsible for a massive outbreak.

Third, the best example comes from Norway, where at a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over eighty of them caught Omicron. Every single one of them was vaccinated and perfectly healthy until that moment. This proves the virus is successfully bypassing the efficacy of the vaccines. Being vaccinated versus unvaccinated is effectively the same thing here.

They aren't shutting down the UK for no reason... they know the danger is real and that anything could happen.

And remember, when we were all warning that the emergence of a variant like this was inevitable, we were just dismissed as conspiracy theorists...

Listen, maybe tell that to the people who actually died from Omicron—you know, the ones for whom it wasn't exactly "mild" or "nothing to worry about." Is it really worth acting like it's no big deal?

Matthew Jackson2 said:Just because it was first detected in one spot doesn't mean that's necessarily where it crawled out of. It was later identified in samples from across Europe that had been taken much earlier.

That said, even if it did originate right there, I’d say your level of anxiety is roughly comparable to worrying about a random meteor hitting your house.

Second, this thing spreads three to four times faster than Delta. Even worse, unlike previous variants, it seems it's spreading through ventilation systems too—think airplanes, ships, office buildings, malls—which has been confirmed by the relevant authorities in the European Union and the UK. You have people who were vaccinated and tested boarding a plane, maintaining distance, testing negative upon landing, and then developing full-blown symptoms just two or three days later.

But wait, was every single vaccinated person actually tested? And was the specific test they used even capable of detecting this particular strain?

Look, we already know that vaccinated individuals are far more susceptible to Omicron than they were to Delta, so if not everyone was tested, or if the tests themselves couldn't catch Omicron, that offers a much more logical explanation than suggesting the virus is somehow fundamentally changing its physical particle properties. The coronavirus spreads via aerosols, which means any filter capable of blocking Delta should inherently block Omicron, because the virus resides in droplets of essentially the same size regardless of the strain.

Of course, that assumes the filter was functioning correctly in the first place. If it wasn't, then a single infected person could be responsible for a massive outbreak.

Third, the best example comes from Norway, where at a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over eighty of them caught Omicron. Every single one of them was vaccinated and perfectly healthy until that moment. This proves the virus is successfully bypassing the efficacy of the vaccines. Being vaccinated versus unvaccinated is effectively the same thing here.

They aren't shutting down the UK for no reason... they know the danger is real and that anything could happen.

And remember, when we were all warning that the emergence of a variant like this was inevitable, we were just dismissed as conspiracy theorists...

Do you really think Norway is some chaotic mess where everyone just does whatever they want and rules are basically suggestions? The data shows about 72% are fully vaccinated—plus another ten percent with at least one dose—so they’re actually leading the pack. Besides, tell me... where exactly are the "privileged" ones getting tested before they even step into their offices? And what kind of test besides a PCR could even detect Omicron anyway?

Matthew Jackson2 said:Just because it was first detected in one spot doesn't mean that's necessarily where it crawled out of. It was later identified in samples from across Europe that had been taken much earlier.

That said, even if it did originate right there, I’d say your level of anxiety is roughly comparable to worrying about a random meteor hitting your house.

Second, this thing spreads three to four times faster than Delta. Even worse, unlike previous variants, it seems it's spreading through ventilation systems too—think airplanes, ships, office buildings, malls—which has been confirmed by the relevant authorities in the European Union and the UK. You have people who were vaccinated and tested boarding a plane, maintaining distance, testing negative upon landing, and then developing full-blown symptoms just two or three days later.

But wait, was every single vaccinated person actually tested? And was the specific test they used even capable of detecting this particular strain?

Look, we already know that vaccinated individuals are far more susceptible to Omicron than they were to Delta, so if not everyone was tested, or if the tests themselves couldn't catch Omicron, that offers a much more logical explanation than suggesting the virus is somehow fundamentally changing its physical particle properties. The coronavirus spreads via aerosols, which means any filter capable of blocking Delta should inherently block Omicron, because the virus resides in droplets of essentially the same size regardless of the strain.

Of course, that assumes the filter was functioning correctly in the first place. If it wasn't, then a single infected person could be responsible for a massive outbreak.

Third, the best example comes from Norway, where at a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over eighty of them caught Omicron. Every single one of them was vaccinated and perfectly healthy until that moment. This proves the virus is successfully bypassing the efficacy of the vaccines. Being vaccinated versus unvaccinated is effectively the same thing here.

They aren't shutting down the UK for no reason... they know the danger is real and that anything could happen.

And remember, when we were all warning that the emergence of a variant like this was inevitable, we were just dismissed as conspiracy theorists...

Everyone coming in from the JAR area had a COVID pass and a negative PCR test—everyone. That was the absolute requirement just to board the plane.
People started showing symptoms right after they stepped off the plane. I think maybe 30% of the passengers were affected—so, what does that tell you? It basically means there wasn't any other way to catch it besides being on that flight—likely through aerosols circulating in the ventilation system.

Matthew Jackson2 said:Just because it was first detected in one spot doesn't mean that's necessarily where it crawled out of. It was later identified in samples from across Europe that had been taken much earlier.

That said, even if it did originate right there, I’d say your level of anxiety is roughly comparable to worrying about a random meteor hitting your house.

Second, this thing spreads three to four times faster than Delta. Even worse, unlike previous variants, it seems it's spreading through ventilation systems too—think airplanes, ships, office buildings, malls—which has been confirmed by the relevant authorities in the European Union and the UK. You have people who were vaccinated and tested boarding a plane, maintaining distance, testing negative upon landing, and then developing full-blown symptoms just two or three days later.

But wait, was every single vaccinated person actually tested? And was the specific test they used even capable of detecting this particular strain?

Look, we already know that vaccinated individuals are far more susceptible to Omicron than they were to Delta, so if not everyone was tested, or if the tests themselves couldn't catch Omicron, that offers a much more logical explanation than suggesting the virus is somehow fundamentally changing its physical particle properties. The coronavirus spreads via aerosols, which means any filter capable of blocking Delta should inherently block Omicron, because the virus resides in droplets of essentially the same size regardless of the strain.

Of course, that assumes the filter was functioning correctly in the first place. If it wasn't, then a single infected person could be responsible for a massive outbreak.

Third, the best example comes from Norway, where at a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over eighty of them caught Omicron. Every single one of them was vaccinated and perfectly healthy until that moment. This proves the virus is successfully bypassing the efficacy of the vaccines. Being vaccinated versus unvaccinated is effectively the same thing here.

They aren't shutting down the UK for no reason... they know the danger is real and that anything could happen.

And remember, when we were all warning that the emergence of a variant like this was inevitable, we were just dismissed as conspiracy theorists...

One person is enough, but they can infect a whole crowd in a really short window. Now the real question is how many people spread that strain in the meantime? Here in the States, vaccinated folks don't get tested—and honestly, it's the same in plenty of other countries too. The door is wide open for it to spread.

Matthew Jackson2 said:Just because it was first detected in one spot doesn't mean that's necessarily where it crawled out of. It was later identified in samples from across Europe that had been taken much earlier.

That said, even if it did originate right there, I’d say your level of anxiety is roughly comparable to worrying about a random meteor hitting your house.

Second, this thing spreads three to four times faster than Delta. Even worse, unlike previous variants, it seems it's spreading through ventilation systems too—think airplanes, ships, office buildings, malls—which has been confirmed by the relevant authorities in the European Union and the UK. You have people who were vaccinated and tested boarding a plane, maintaining distance, testing negative upon landing, and then developing full-blown symptoms just two or three days later.

But wait, was every single vaccinated person actually tested? And was the specific test they used even capable of detecting this particular strain?

Look, we already know that vaccinated individuals are far more susceptible to Omicron than they were to Delta, so if not everyone was tested, or if the tests themselves couldn't catch Omicron, that offers a much more logical explanation than suggesting the virus is somehow fundamentally changing its physical particle properties. The coronavirus spreads via aerosols, which means any filter capable of blocking Delta should inherently block Omicron, because the virus resides in droplets of essentially the same size regardless of the strain.

Of course, that assumes the filter was functioning correctly in the first place. If it wasn't, then a single infected person could be responsible for a massive outbreak.

Third, the best example comes from Norway, where at a Christmas party for about a hundred people, over eighty of them caught Omicron. Every single one of them was vaccinated and perfectly healthy until that moment. This proves the virus is successfully bypassing the efficacy of the vaccines. Being vaccinated versus unvaccinated is effectively the same thing here.

They aren't shutting down the UK for no reason... they know the danger is real and that anything could happen.

And remember, when we were all warning that the emergence of a variant like this was inevitable, we were just dismissed as conspiracy theorists...

I'm worried this variant is just the start of a whole new series of Omicron-based mutations. The real question is—how dangerous will they get? And then, before we know it, another one pops up on the other side of the world, and so on...

crimsonhawk20 said:Exactly. But it also makes you wonder—how long was that strain actually circulating in the JAR before they even confirmed it? Especially since the symptoms were so mild... could it have been around for months?

Listen, maybe tell that to the people who actually died from Omicron—you know, the ones for whom it wasn't exactly "mild" or "nothing to worry about." Is it really worth acting like it's no big deal?

Do you really think Norway is some chaotic mess where everyone just does whatever they want and rules are basically suggestions? The data shows about 72% are fully vaccinated—plus another ten percent with at least one dose—so they’re actually leading the pack. Besides, tell me... where exactly are the "privileged" ones getting tested before they even step into their offices? And what kind of test besides a PCR could even detect Omicron anyway?

Everyone coming in from the JAR area had a COVID pass and a negative PCR test—everyone. That was the absolute requirement just to board the plane.
People started showing symptoms right after they stepped off the plane. I think maybe 30% of the passengers were affected—so, what does that tell you? It basically means there wasn't any other way to catch it besides being on that flight—likely through aerosols circulating in the ventilation system.

One person is enough, but they can infect a whole crowd in a really short window. Now the real question is how many people spread that strain in the meantime? Here in the States, vaccinated folks don't get tested—and honestly, it's the same in plenty of other countries too. The door is wide open for it to spread.

I'm worried this variant is just the start of a whole new series of Omicron-based mutations. The real question is—how dangerous will they get? And then, before we know it, another one pops up on the other side of the world, and so on...

Viral DNA can be detected by PCR. The primers used must be specific to the targeted sequences in the DNA of a virus, and PCR can be used for diagnostic analyses or DNA sequencing of the viral genome. The high sensitivity of PCR permits virus detection soon after infection and even before the onset of disease.[35] Such early detection may give physicians a significant lead time in treatment. The amount of virus ("viral load") in a patient can also be quantified by PCR-based DNA quantitation techniques (see below). A variant of PCR (RT-PCR) is used for detecting viral RNA rather than DNA: in this test the enzyme reverse transcriptase is used to generate a DNA sequence which matches the viral RNA; this DNA is then amplified as per the usual PCR method. RT-PCR is widely used to detect the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyme...e_applications

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primer..._primer_design

A PCR test can actually come back negative if the viral RNA has mutated enough at key sites that the analysis primers no longer stick to the target parts of the coronavirus RNA...

In that case, you wouldn't catch the infection until later on via an antigen test.

crimsonhawk20 said:Exactly. But it also makes you wonder—how long was that strain actually circulating in the JAR before they even confirmed it? Especially since the symptoms were so mild... could it have been around for months?

Listen, maybe tell that to the people who actually died from Omicron—you know, the ones for whom it wasn't exactly "mild" or "nothing to worry about." Is it really worth acting like it's no big deal?

Do you really think Norway is some chaotic mess where everyone just does whatever they want and rules are basically suggestions? The data shows about 72% are fully vaccinated—plus another ten percent with at least one dose—so they’re actually leading the pack. Besides, tell me... where exactly are the "privileged" ones getting tested before they even step into their offices? And what kind of test besides a PCR could even detect Omicron anyway?

Everyone coming in from the JAR area had a COVID pass and a negative PCR test—everyone. That was the absolute requirement just to board the plane.
People started showing symptoms right after they stepped off the plane. I think maybe 30% of the passengers were affected—so, what does that tell you? It basically means there wasn't any other way to catch it besides being on that flight—likely through aerosols circulating in the ventilation system.

One person is enough, but they can infect a whole crowd in a really short window. Now the real question is how many people spread that strain in the meantime? Here in the States, vaccinated folks don't get tested—and honestly, it's the same in plenty of other countries too. The door is wide open for it to spread.

I'm worried this variant is just the start of a whole new series of Omicron-based mutations. The real question is—how dangerous will they get? And then, before we know it, another one pops up on the other side of the world, and so on...

It could have, and frankly, it could have been spreading through Europe for just as long.

On a side note, South Africa has some of the most cutting-edge sequencing labs in the world, whereas our own domestic facilities are supposedly plagued by equipment failures; I recall hearing rumors that we were right on the verge of identifying a local variant, but the damn machine broke down just when we needed it most.

Oh, sure, why don't you go tell that to the people who actually died from Omicron? Tell them how "mild" and "harmless" it is supposed to be, as if that’s going to provide any actual comfort.

Right now, we only have one documented case to look at:

Britain gave no details on the death other than the person had been diagnosed in hospital. It was not clear if the patient had been vaccinated or had underlying health issues.

Maybe you should try giving that same lecture to the folks who lost their lives to Delta or those earlier strains.

Do you honestly think Norway is some lawless backwater where everyone just does whatever they want and ignores every regulation? The data shows they have a 72% full vaccination rate, with another ten percent having received at least one dose, so they are leading the pack. Besides, tell me, where exactly are these "privileged" vaccinated individuals being tested when they enter workplaces? And what kind of test besides a PCR can even detect Omicron in the first place?

All the passengers arriving from South Africa held valid COVID passes along with negative PCR tests. Every single one of them! That is the standard requirement just to board a flight.
Then, immediately after stepping off the plane, they started showing symptoms. If my memory serves, it was roughly 30% of the passengers. Which leads me to believe there wasn't any other window for infection outside of that aircraft—it had to have been the aerosolized particles circulating through the ventilation system.

I suppose that means the strain just spontaneously manifested mid-flight by divine intervention, then?

Jar is seeing record case numbers—higher than any previous wave—and growth is skyrocketing, yet Z. Europa isn't even keeping pace; it’s actually seen a slight stagnation over the last few weeks.

Regardless of what the sequencing shows, just looking at total testing volume and how these waves move, something would have been detected if it had surfaced in Europe first.

Gerald Chavez7 said:Jar is seeing record case numbers—higher than any previous wave—and growth is skyrocketing, yet Z. Europa isn't even keeping pace; it’s actually seen a slight stagnation over the last few weeks.

Regardless of what the sequencing shows, just looking at total testing volume and how these waves move, something would have been detected if it had surfaced in Europe first.

Maybe Omicron will learn some manners when it finally hits the West and realize it needs to follow the rules and stop being so damn infectious.

@samoistina
@teamskeptici

frozenraven22 said:Maybe Omicron will learn some manners when it finally hits the West and realize it needs to follow the rules and stop being so damn infectious.

@samoistina
@teamskeptici

And more lethal? ☕

Matthew Jackson2 said:And more lethal? ☕

Compared to what happened in South Africa? Definitely. They’ve got a much younger population—and about 70% of them have already been through it.


America

Speaking to the Daily Mail, Dr. Angelique Coetzee—the president of the American Medical Association and the very first person to identify this new coronavirus variant in a patient—offered some blunt commentary on what she calls the "hysterical reaction" coming out of the United Kingdom regarding the emergence of Omicron.

Right out of the gate, she suggested that those dire predictions—the ones claiming the UK could see up to a million cases by month's end, leaving Medicare completely overwhelmed with 10,000 daily hospitalizations—are likely just a setup for more talk about canceling Christmas plans or facing another lockdown by New Year's Day. She essentially characterized Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s warning about an impending "tidal wave" of Omicron infections in the United Kingdom as being "on the verge of hysteria."

- "If you just look at what is happening in South Africa, where the initial Omicron cases were recorded, you'll realize that this kind of response is totally disproportionate to the actual risks this variant poses," she remarked.

- "It appears this new strain had been circulating in South Africa for a while, having been spotted previously in Botswana. My responsibility was to report my concerns. I don't regret doing that, but I am honestly stunned by the reaction from global leaders, especially when the United Kingdom and several other European nations immediately slapped on strict travel bans and extended quarantine periods."

A little bit of much-needed perspective in this sea of pessimism. 😁

Gerald Chavez7 said:Compared to what happened in South Africa? Definitely. They’ve got a much younger population—and about 70% of them have already been through it.


America

Meanwhile, here in the States, we’re sitting at a 55% vaccination rate. Or do you honestly believe the vaccine doesn't offer protection against more severe cases from the micron level up?

And honestly, why does South Africa see such a massive age gap in their data? Are you under the impression that for COVID, the primary risk factor is just chronological age on a calendar, or is it biological—meaning the actual physiological state of an aging body?

1) First off, looking at the detailed report out of South Africa—which isn't exactly some third-world nation struggling with malnutrition issues—it mentions 70% efficacy against severe disease (severe—likely meaning hospitalization or death) when you've had two doses of Pfizer. Honestly, I’d bet the numbers in the US will be lower, mostly because our vaccination rollout happened much earlier (most people were done between March and July). If I had to make a conservative guess, I’d say we're looking at maybe 50% efficacy against the severe stuff. As for reinfection? I expect practically zero protection from just two doses here in the States—maybe 20-30% at most.

2) I still think age remains the dominant factor in the data structure. It’s not like South Africa is a developing nation where they're dealing with widespread malnutrition issues.

P.S. Here is that Danish report on Omicron, released today (in English)
https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron...-13122021-i30w

A staggering 75% of Omicron cases are among those fully vaccinated, compared to 49% during the Delta wave. Given that overall vaccination rates are hovering around 80%, Omicron basically treats the vaccine as invisible when it comes to symptomatic illness.

Plus, the hospitalization rate is higher (check table 6).