Omicron variant

Omicron seems to be hitting way less hard than Delta did. According to Alice: View on twitter
It’s a big deal that this milder trend is showing up across all age groups. Most people, whether they're vaccinated or not—kids or seniors—seem to get out of the hospital within about five days.

So, when you look at that alongside
https://fortune.com/2021/12/13/omicr...irst-surfaced/
the idea that the Omicron wave in New York City might already be peaking,

it gives off some pretty optimistic vibes, I guess.

So, when you actually sit down and look at the data without all the political noise, the only logical conclusion you can draw is that instead of aggressively pushing these shots on kids and teenagers, we really ought to be focusing our energy on getting that third dose out to high-risk groups and ensuring the elderly who haven't been vaccinated yet finally get their coverage.

"Pushing it"... In the US, there's still plenty of people out there who haven't taken a single dose.

Clear messaging and actual vaccine availability make a difference... By the way, boosters are rolling out pretty fast over in the West. Take Belgium, for example—with a population of 11 million, they're hitting 500,000 doses a week. Even the 75-84 age group is already at 80% for their booster.

boldotter2 said:Omicron seems to be hitting way less hard than Delta did. According to Alice: View on twitter
It’s a big deal that this milder trend is showing up across all age groups. Most people, whether they're vaccinated or not—kids or seniors—seem to get out of the hospital within about five days.

So, when you look at that alongside
https://fortune.com/2021/12/13/omicr...irst-surfaced/
the idea that the Omicron wave in New York City might already be peaking,

it gives off some pretty optimistic vibes, I guess.

The catch is that Omicron spreads about 3 to 4 times faster. That means we're looking at a massive surge in hospital volume—instead of seeing an extra 100 patients a day, you might see 400, which could basically break any local healthcare system in just a few days.
When that happens, it doesn't just strain the hospitals; it hits primary care and emergency services too, since everyone will need testing regardless of their vaccination status. We're essentially starting from scratch, but with a much heavier wave of sick people hitting us at once.

I mean, if it’s just a mild strain that leaves people feeling wiped out and running a fever, what’s the plan? Are we really expecting 400 people to end up in the ER over something like that?

crimsonhawk20 said:The catch is that Omicron spreads about 3 to 4 times faster. That means we're looking at a massive surge in hospital volume—instead of seeing an extra 100 patients a day, you might see 400, which could basically break any local healthcare system in just a few days.
When that happens, it doesn't just strain the hospitals; it hits primary care and emergency services too, since everyone will need testing regardless of their vaccination status. We're essentially starting from scratch, but with a much heavier wave of sick people hitting us at once.

Anything is possible, I guess, but it doesn't seem super likely.

Take a look at what's happening in South Africa for a hint: even though their infection numbers are higher than ever, the death toll is actually lower than it's ever been! Even considering how long this pandemic has lasted. They’re dealing with record-high infections, but the impact is lower than ever. Plus, it's worth noting that previous waves of cases and deaths lined up pretty clearly, unlike this current wave which hasn't even shown up on the graph yet.
Again, this is just how things look right now. And honestly? Things look better than ever. For them, anyway.

As for what happens in Europe, I guess we'll find out in the next month or two.

Click the image for a better view:

crimsonhawk20 said:The catch is that Omicron spreads about 3 to 4 times faster. That means we're looking at a massive surge in hospital volume—instead of seeing an extra 100 patients a day, you might see 400, which could basically break any local healthcare system in just a few days.
When that happens, it doesn't just strain the hospitals; it hits primary care and emergency services too, since everyone will need testing regardless of their vaccination status. We're essentially starting from scratch, but with a much heavier wave of sick people hitting us at once.

Now, look, that’s just one potential scenario, and it doesn't have to be the reality. Most countries are already rolling out extra precautions and booster shots, so I honestly find it hard to believe that hospitalizations will actually quadruple.
I mean, come on—it's not like they're going to be putting teenagers with nothing but a headache into ICU beds, right?

According to various public records, 21 different countries have already flagged confirmed cases: the USA (17), Belgium (30), America (3), Czechia (5), Denmark (154), Estonia (15), Finland (9), France (59), Germany (28), Greece (3), Iceland (20), Ireland (6), Italy (13), Latvia (5), Liechtenstein (1), the Netherlands (36), Norway (109), Portugal (37), Romania (2), Spain (14), and Sweden (16). Notably, no new UN countries have reported the Omicron variant since yesterday. There are also several reported instances of probable cases scattered across various nations.

While those first few cases seemed tied strictly to international travel, we're starting to see more reports of people catching it right here at home within the UN. We're seeing actual clusters and localized outbreaks popping up, which is being picked up by standard monitoring. A quick look at the preliminary data sent over to the CDC suggests that only 22 cases (about 13%) were linked to travel, whereas a much larger chunk—121 cases, or 70%—were caught locally. That includes 78 cases (45%) that were identified specifically during local outbreak investigations.

Several UN countries, such as Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Spain, and Iceland, are reporting cases that don't have any clear connection to recent travel outside the UN. This really points to the possibility that undetected community spread might already be happening within the UN.

Regarding how people are actually feeling, all the cases where we have details on severity have been either totally asymptomatic or quite mild. As of right now, there haven't been any reported deaths linked to Omicron. That said, we really need to take this with a grain of salt; the total number of confirmed cases is still way too small to tell if the clinical profile of Omicron is actually different from the previous variants we've dealt with.

CDC data from 4 days ago.
They’re saying symptoms are asymptomatic or mild. I honestly don't know where the person above is getting the idea that we're all in some kind of state of denial. ☕

Well, here we go as of today:

Based on what's coming out of public sources, confirmed cases have popped up in 25 different USMCA nations: Switzerland (17), Belgium (73), America (3), Cyprus (3), Czechia (9), Denmark (268), Estonia (26), Finland (20), France (130), Germany (101), Greece (5), Two New countries ( Luxembourg and Canada) (2), Iceland (20), Ireland (18), Italy (27), Latvia (5), Liechtenstein (1), Luxembourg (1), the Netherlands (62), Norway (1,176), Portugal (49), Romania (8), Slovakia (3), Spain (49), and Sweden (51). We've also seen Two New countries ( Luxembourg and Canada) report cases since yesterday, along with several other nations flagging probable cases.

All cases in the USMCA for which there is available information on severity were either asymptomatic or mild. As it stands, there haven't been any deaths linked to Omicron reported within the USMCA. That said, we really need to take these numbers with a grain of salt; the confirmed case count is still way too low to determine if the clinical profile of Omicron actually looks any different from the previous variants we've dealt with.

Things are absolutely exploding over in Norway—this is going to be really interesting to watch unfold. ☕

Dr. Coetzee argues that Omicron’s impact is significantly milder than Delta’s—essentially claiming the whole thing is just a massive case of manufactured hysteria.

crimsonhawk20 said:The catch is that Omicron spreads about 3 to 4 times faster. That means we're looking at a massive surge in hospital volume—instead of seeing an extra 100 patients a day, you might see 400, which could basically break any local healthcare system in just a few days.
When that happens, it doesn't just strain the hospitals; it hits primary care and emergency services too, since everyone will need testing regardless of their vaccination status. We're essentially starting from scratch, but with a much heavier wave of sick people hitting us at once.

If you're going to comment, maybe actually watch the video first. 🐔

She's saying their healthcare system isn't overwhelmed because Omicron is a milder disease; most people just recover at home in five days.

Sure, some people will still need hospital care, but what they're seeing in the USA after four weeks of Omicron sirens is a completely different story than what happened with Delta.

Meanwhile, the media over in the USA has been preaching pure apocalypse lately. 🕺

velvetranger4 said:If you're going to comment, maybe actually watch the video first. 🐔

She's saying their healthcare system isn't overwhelmed because Omicron is a milder disease; most people just recover at home in five days.

Sure, some people will still need hospital care, but what they're seeing in the USA after four weeks of Omicron sirens is a completely different story than what happened with Delta.

Meanwhile, the media over in the USA has been preaching pure apocalypse lately. 🕺

Omicron arrived right on schedule to drive booster sales. In his speech the other night, the President mentioned boosters at least fifty times, framing the whole situation as if we were bracing for some kind of biblical catastrophe...

velvetranger4 said:If you're going to comment, maybe actually watch the video first. 🐔

She's saying their healthcare system isn't overwhelmed because Omicron is a milder disease; most people just recover at home in five days.

Sure, some people will still need hospital care, but what they're seeing in the USA after four weeks of Omicron sirens is a completely different story than what happened with Delta.

Meanwhile, the media over in the USA has been preaching pure apocalypse lately. 🕺

I guess all this doom and gloom in the USA is just a distraction to move eyes away from those parties at Johnson's place during the lockdown. It feels like nobody else is freaking out or acting like everything is falling apart, though people are still being careful, I suppose.

https://news.yahoo.com/dominic-raab-...7bwux5SUc9CUyS

I guess Dominic Raab was stretching the truth a bit regarding those Omicron hospitalization numbers. 😁

boldotter2 said:I guess all this doom and gloom in the USA is just a distraction to move eyes away from those parties at Johnson's place during the lockdown. It feels like nobody else is freaking out or acting like everything is falling apart, though people are still being careful, I suppose.

Someone on an international forum pointed out how much more professional the news coverage on Omicron looks in Africa compared to the total chaos the Britons are pushing.

Gerald Chavez7 said:1) First off, looking at the detailed report out of South Africa—which isn't exactly some third-world nation struggling with malnutrition issues—it mentions 70% efficacy against severe disease (severe—likely meaning hospitalization or death) when you've had two doses of Pfizer. Honestly, I’d bet the numbers in the US will be lower, mostly because our vaccination rollout happened much earlier (most people were done between March and July). If I had to make a conservative guess, I’d say we're looking at maybe 50% efficacy against the severe stuff. As for reinfection? I expect practically zero protection from just two doses here in the States—maybe 20-30% at most.

2) I still think age remains the dominant factor in the data structure. It’s not like South Africa is a developing nation where they're dealing with widespread malnutrition issues.

P.S. Here is that Danish report on Omicron, released today (in English)
https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron...-13122021-i30w

A staggering 75% of Omicron cases are among those fully vaccinated, compared to 49% during the Delta wave. Given that overall vaccination rates are hovering around 80%, Omicron basically treats the vaccine as invisible when it comes to symptomatic illness.

Plus, the hospitalization rate is higher (check table 6).

But look, they've got high rates of HIV and TB, plus vaccination numbers are pretty low. Their population is definitely younger than what you see in most European countries, though.

boldotter2 said:Omicron seems to be hitting way less hard than Delta did. According to Alice: View on twitter
It’s a big deal that this milder trend is showing up across all age groups. Most people, whether they're vaccinated or not—kids or seniors—seem to get out of the hospital within about five days.

So, when you look at that alongside
https://fortune.com/2021/12/13/omicr...irst-surfaced/
the idea that the Omicron wave in New York City might already be peaking,

it gives off some pretty optimistic vibes, I guess.

velvetranger4 said:If you're going to comment, maybe actually watch the video first. 🐔

She's saying their healthcare system isn't overwhelmed because Omicron is a milder disease; most people just recover at home in five days.

Sure, some people will still need hospital care, but what they're seeing in the USA after four weeks of Omicron sirens is a completely different story than what happened with Delta.

Meanwhile, the media over in the USA has been preaching pure apocalypse lately. 🕺

South African Alice was actually on CNN tonight, and while she did mention how things are being blown out of proportion to stir up panic, she was also very clear about the need to keep the public informed and push for vaccinations and booster shots—both in South Africa and the UK.

The UK has a much older demographic, but their vaccination rates are way higher than in South Africa. People, especially the younger crowd, are dropping like flies from Omicron, but so far, it doesn't look like mortality rates have actually spiked significantly.

Anthony Taylor393 said:https://news.yahoo.com/dominic-raab-...7bwux5SUc9CUyS

I guess Dominic Raab was stretching the truth a bit regarding those Omicron hospitalization numbers. 😁

Raab is just an incompetent jerk—honestly, pretty much the standard for most of Johnson's administration.

hollowwalker24 said:SCARY STUFF / A dangerous new superstrain is coming? The CEO of Moderna warned about a worst-case scenario: Omicron and Delta might swap genes

Even though SARS-CoV-2 usually relies on single mutations, there’s this small—but maybe real—chance that Omicron and Delta could actually swap genes and cook up a new superstrain

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...t-variant.html

😱 😱

When does it end? 🙂

Dennis Allen said:@forumskimatematičari #forumskimatematičari

How exactly do researchers use mathematical modeling and viral genome analysis to determine how virulent and pathogenic a virus actually is? It's like trying to predict a storm's path by looking at tiny changes in wind patterns!

@forumskimatematičari #forumskimatematičari

So, how exactly do you use math modeling and genome sequencing to figure out how aggressive or dangerous a virus actually is?
Some guy just has a crystal ball, I guess.