#601 ·
Dr. Coetzee believes we should just let Omicron run its course through the population:
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news...-over-omicron/
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news...-over-omicron/
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Omicron variant
Omicron variant
Started by Samuel Turner2 · · 👁 24 views · 692 replies
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#602 ·
The early numbers coming out of the UK (even though it's just a tiny sample of about 1,000 patients) seem to back up what we saw in South Africa—the symptoms feel more like a nasty cold. We're talking sneezing, stuffy noses, sore throats, and feeling wiped out. No fever, no losing taste, and losing smell is super rare.
One little update, too—it looks like the incubation period might have dropped to just 2 or 3 days.
Link: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...-says-12497094
We'll really need to see how this hits the elderly, people with underlying conditions, or those who aren't vaccinated. And kids, too. South Africa has seen a spike in kids being hospitalized, but honestly, the numbers are still pretty low, so maybe it’s just seasonal bugs or something? A bunch of those kids had bad stomach issues like vomiting and diarrhea before testing positive for Omicron. It could be a COVID thing, or maybe just some other bug going around since it's summer and all.
But hey, if things keep going this way—with a shorter incubation period and a quicker window for spreading it—this whole thing might just burn itself out incredibly fast.
One little update, too—it looks like the incubation period might have dropped to just 2 or 3 days.
Link: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...-says-12497094
We'll really need to see how this hits the elderly, people with underlying conditions, or those who aren't vaccinated. And kids, too. South Africa has seen a spike in kids being hospitalized, but honestly, the numbers are still pretty low, so maybe it’s just seasonal bugs or something? A bunch of those kids had bad stomach issues like vomiting and diarrhea before testing positive for Omicron. It could be a COVID thing, or maybe just some other bug going around since it's summer and all.
But hey, if things keep going this way—with a shorter incubation period and a quicker window for spreading it—this whole thing might just burn itself out incredibly fast.
#603 ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...12.14.472630v1
Nine different antibody treatments—including Trump’s so-called "wonder drug" Remdesivir—are basically useless against Omicron... Great. It might slightly nudge the IFR (for those without immunity—whether from vaccines, previous infection, or both), but that's about it.
If people who have already recovered face about a 1% risk of being reinfected by Omicron, then why on earth wouldn't their own antibodies work when we filter them and administer them as a therapeutic treatment? I mean, surely we shouldn't be overlooking all the other defense mechanisms our bodies use to fight off viruses, which remain completely unaffected by how many antibodies we happen to have floating around in our system?
This could actually have some pretty significant implications regarding the whole booster debate...
#604 ·
You’re being a bit too optimistic here. They won't even acknowledge the presence of antibodies, let alone grant any credit to additional immune mechanisms.
If someone were to drop down from Mars and take a look at this, they’d quickly realize that the human body is an incredibly fragile system where the response to pathogens either happens by pure, sheer luck in a tiny fraction of cases or through immunity induced entirely by external means.
P.S. Just a quick correction on that inaccurate point: Unless you're a Republican. In that case, I guess antibodies suddenly exist.
If someone were to drop down from Mars and take a look at this, they’d quickly realize that the human body is an incredibly fragile system where the response to pathogens either happens by pure, sheer luck in a tiny fraction of cases or through immunity induced entirely by external means.
P.S. Just a quick correction on that inaccurate point: Unless you're a Republican. In that case, I guess antibodies suddenly exist.
#606 ·
In the US, the rate of hospital admissions relative to new COVID-19 cases saw a massive plunge during the second week of this latest surge fueled by Omicron, especially when you look back at how things unfolded during the same period of the previous wave.
According to the US Secretary of Health and Human Services, Joe Phaahla, only about 1.7% of people identified with COVID-19 were actually hospitalized during the second week of this fourth wave, a stark contrast to the 19% hospitalization rate seen during the same stretch of the third wave, which was dominated by the Delta variant.
I have to wonder—is this just a case of Americans trying to save their seasonal numbers, or is Omicron genuinely milder for the population here?
#607 ·
Omicron is definitely a milder beast when it comes to reinfections—in fact, looking at South Africa, it seems like everyone is either catching it again or experiencing vaccine breakthroughs... It’s pretty clear South Africa was already sitting on herd immunity by that point.
#608 ·
We'll just have to wait and see how many of those 87,000 Americans end up in the hospital 🤷
I think they might be counting rapid tests too, or am I tripping? I read somewhere that they were, but I can't say for sure
I think they might be counting rapid tests too, or am I tripping? I read somewhere that they were, but I can't say for sure
#609 ·
We're likely looking at a pretty nasty wave—not necessarily in scale, just because everyone tends to catch it all at once—but it should be over quick. Honestly, I still have a feeling we'll be through the worst of it by March 15th.
#610 ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:Omicron is definitely a milder beast when it comes to reinfections—in fact, looking at South Africa, it seems like everyone is either catching it again or experiencing vaccine breakthroughs... It’s pretty clear South Africa was already sitting on herd immunity by that point.
The vaccination rate there is incredibly low, and most of the population is young.
#612 ·
South Africa
Coronavirus Cases:
3,255,816
Deaths:
90,262
Recovered:
2,954,919
What’s their total population?
Coronavirus Cases:
3,255,816
Deaths:
90,262
Recovered:
2,954,919
What’s their total population?
#613 ·
Susan Martin4 said:South Africa
Coronavirus Cases:
3,255,816
Deaths:
90,262
Recovered:
2,954,919
What’s their total population?
Around 60 million.
#614 ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:As far as the US goes, we know it’s capped at maybe 0.3% of the population daily—mostly because we've never actually pushed past 14,000 tests at once 😉
...though, let's be real, even the UK, France, and Germany will eventually hit their testing limits (which is why keeping an eye on the positivity rate is going to be absolutely critical).
Look, you have to separate what’s being officially reported—just the PCR stuff—from what isn't, like all those rapid tests floating around. We basically had this little experiment with mandates in public institutions where everyone unvaccinated had to get tested, and they rolled that out right in the middle of this last wave. Someone dropped some numbers in the chat earlier; if I heard them right, the positivity rate hit roughly 11% in just one month.
link to post
If you look at the general population, by the time this last wave settled, maybe as many as 1/5 of us had actually caught the virus, whether people realized it or not.
And honestly, the positivity rate here isn't going to mean much. Since a PCR test is the only way for someone who refuses the shot to get their pass, they’re eventually going to end up in that "positive" column. It creates this massive bias that drags the percentages up. Everyone is going to be rushing to get tested—either because they actually feel sick or because they got a positive result from a home kit or a quick test and now need to go get it officially stamped, notarized, and verified by some bureaucrat just to deal with this whole pandemic mess.
#615 ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:We're likely looking at a pretty nasty wave—not necessarily in scale, just because everyone tends to catch it all at once—but it should be over quick. Honestly, I still have a feeling we'll be through the worst of it by March 15th.
Mainly because communication is going to be a total disaster, just like it always is. And obviously, everything will be late.
Right now, I think our biggest headache is that too few vulnerable people and healthcare workers have gotten their third dose.
If most of the medical staff gets hit all at once, it could really mess with the whole system. Not just because of COVID-19, but because everything else might just stop working.
First you get nurses and techs getting sick, then doctors, then patients with mild cases, but then it all spills over into the intensive care units and nursing homes...
And if things get even worse because Delta is still hanging around... The last thing we need is Delta and Omicron hitting an immunocompromised ward at the same time. That’s basically a recipe for disaster and potentially some new mutations.
#616 ·
Susan Martin4 said:We'll just have to wait and see how many of those 87,000 Americans end up in the hospital 🤷
I think they might be counting rapid tests too, or am I tripping? I read somewhere that they were, but I can't say for sure
Most of these seem to be Delta. I think I caught something in the news yesterday about Omicron becoming the dominant strain over in London.
Whitty once described the situation as if we were fighting two different pandemics at the exact same time: you had the Delta variant holding steady with about 50,000 new infections a week, all while Omicron was starting to move in.
Given how fast these sirens are going, we’re going to see exactly what happens with hospitalizations very, very soon.
The real issue is that hospitals here in the US are already pushed to their limits, and now we have Omicron to deal with on top of everything else. Just imagine what happens when doctors and nurses start calling in sick because they've caught Omicron themselves? It’s a tough situation.
#617 ·
boldotter2 said:Mainly because communication is going to be a total disaster, just like it always is. And obviously, everything will be late.
Right now, I think our biggest headache is that too few vulnerable people and healthcare workers have gotten their third dose.
If most of the medical staff gets hit all at once, it could really mess with the whole system. Not just because of COVID-19, but because everything else might just stop working.
First you get nurses and techs getting sick, then doctors, then patients with mild cases, but then it all spills over into the intensive care units and nursing homes...
And if things get even worse because Delta is still hanging around... The last thing we need is Delta and Omicron hitting an immunocompromised ward at the same time. That’s basically a recipe for disaster and potentially some new mutations.
Look, it could be dangerous, sure, but it’s not like they’re going to explode and hit full strength simultaneously. We probably won't see Omicron really taking over until a new wave hits around March—similar to what happened last year—or maybe even later during or after the summer, much like we saw with Alpha and Delta. That doesn't mean we can just sit on our hands, though. The people in charge seriously need to step up and protect those who are most vulnerable before things go south again.
#618 ·
velvetranger4 said:Most of these seem to be Delta. I think I caught something in the news yesterday about Omicron becoming the dominant strain over in London.
Whitty once described the situation as if we were fighting two different pandemics at the exact same time: you had the Delta variant holding steady with about 50,000 new infections a week, all while Omicron was starting to move in.
Given how fast these sirens are going, we’re going to see exactly what happens with hospitalizations very, very soon.
The real issue is that hospitals here in the US are already pushed to their limits, and now we have Omicron to deal with on top of everything else. Just imagine what happens when doctors and nurses start calling in sick because they've caught Omicron themselves? It’s a tough situation.
You're claiming hospitals are at full capacity, but official data shows nothing unusual happening in the UK since the summer https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...ited%20Kingdom
#619 ·
Nathan Evans78 said:In the US, the rate of hospital admissions relative to new COVID-19 cases saw a massive plunge during the second week of this latest surge fueled by Omicron, especially when you look back at how things unfolded during the same period of the previous wave.
According to the US Secretary of Health and Human Services, Joe Phaahla, only about 1.7% of people identified with COVID-19 were actually hospitalized during the second week of this fourth wave, a stark contrast to the 19% hospitalization rate seen during the same stretch of the third wave, which was dominated by the Delta variant.
I have to wonder—is this just a case of Americans trying to save their seasonal numbers, or is Omicron genuinely milder for the population here?
That’s a fair question.
Looking at the data from where things first kicked off, the hospitalization rate is about half of what we saw with Delta—not the 10% being suggested. It might be because they're only looking at the very start of the surge across South Africa, so those folks haven't even hit the hospitals yet.
Interestingly, in that same area, deaths are sitting at about 10% compared to Delta. But honestly, it’s too early to call it. That curve is still climbing fast.
New FT chart update for Gauteng:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGvHiDjV...jpg&name=large
#620 ·
Finally, some good news coming out of South Africa. After weeks of worrying about how fast Omicron was spreading, South Africa just reported a massive drop in hospitalizations. It looks like the fourth wave might actually be peaking right now.
According to Bloomberg, only 1.7% of identified COVID-19 cases are ending up in the hospital. That’s a huge relief compared to the 19% hospitalization rate we saw during the third wave when Delta was running the show.
Health officials are saying Omicron seems to be a milder beast, and infections have likely hit their peak in Gauteng, the most populated province.
Hospitals are even taking in people with milder symptoms since there's enough room to handle them, and they're regularly testing other patients already admitted for different issues.
"We've noticed a smaller percentage of people needing oxygen. Right now, those numbers are extremely low. For the first time, we're seeing more patients with mild symptoms than those with severe ones in the hospital," noted Waasila Jassat, a researcher at the CDC.