Started by Samuel Turner2 · · 👁 21 views · 692 replies
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Gerald Chavez7 said:We're likely looking at a pretty nasty wave—not necessarily in scale, just because everyone tends to catch it all at once—but it should be over quick. Honestly, I still have a feeling we'll be through the worst of it by March 15th.
Gerald Chavez7 said:We're likely looking at a pretty nasty wave—not necessarily in scale, just because everyone tends to catch it all at once—but it should be over quick. Honestly, I still have a feeling we'll be through the worst of it by March 15th.
fadedrider17 said:Is the pandemic officially over, or what?
Gerald Chavez7 said:Not quite entirely—the whole world still needs to work through it (I'm genuinely curious to see how China handles their side of things), but in Europe, we might be getting there...
fadedrider17 said:Is the pandemic officially over, or what?
The Chief Medical Officer mentioned he's looking at a universal vaccine being ready sometime in mid-2023, along with some new treatments
However, he did concede that until then, officials will likely need to lean on restrictions to fight off those strains that don't respond to the current shots
Whitty's 18-month outlook is definitely a bit more sunny than the experts at Downing Street, who are bracing for potentially five or more years of dealing with Covid
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...is-Whitty.html
The most common symptoms being reported are: runny nose, headaches, fatigue (both mild and heavy), sneezing, and sore throats.
coppercyclist17 said:So, according to the New England Journal of MedicineThe most common symptoms being reported are: runny nose, headaches, fatigue (both mild and heavy), sneezing, and sore throats.
Am I losing my mind here, or is the whole world just totally hypnotized and freaking out over what feels like a regular old cold? Honestly, the craziest part is that you apparently need three doses of some drug just to participate in society because of a runny nose or a headache. And natural immunity... I mean, who even cares about that anymore? 😵
Kenneth Bennett2 said:This is textbook anti-vax rhetoric right here. How much longer can we
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Getting zaebati is one thing... but I really hope more people start seeing through this whole "circus"
coppercyclist17 said:So, according to the New England Journal of MedicineThe most common symptoms being reported are: runny nose, headaches, fatigue (both mild and heavy), sneezing, and sore throats.
Am I losing my mind here, or is the whole world just totally hypnotized and freaking out over what feels like a regular old cold? Honestly, the craziest part is that you apparently need three doses of some drug just to participate in society because of a runny nose or a headache. And natural immunity... I mean, who even cares about that anymore? 😵
Nicole James said:Those would essentially be the most frequent symptoms of the illness. That tiny 0.5 percent of those infected who suffer lasting damage won't be listed among the most common symptoms.
coppercyclist17 said:And hey, when you had a runny nose back in the day, did you suddenly start worrying you had polio?
Nicole James said:What on earth does that have to do with me calling this coronavirus illness a cold based on the most common symptoms?
steelraven74 said:You're claiming hospitals are at full capacity, but official data shows nothing unusual happening in the UK since the summer https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...ited%20Kingdom
coppercyclist17 said:Oh man, I was almost brave enough to call this holy SARS-CoV-2 Omicron version a mere cold. My bad! ☕
Omicron update : Dec 17 Well
Man, Omicron is absolutely tearing through things right now. We're talking explosive, sky-high, vertical-growth kind of fast. Honestly, if this rate keeps up? I’d bet anything that we haven't seen a single modern virus move this quickly or cover this much ground in history. Ever.
WE continue to see case growth in South Africa, though I'm pretty sure they're about to hit that peak. Why? Because a few things are pointing that way—things like the test positivity rates starting to level off and the overall acceleration finally losing steam. Usually, these waves drag on for about two months, but fingers crossed Omicron gives us a much shorter wave this time around. Between how fast it spreads and everyone actually changing their behavior, maybe we'll get a break sooner rather than later?
Omicron in Europe is well on its way. The UK keeps smashing case records left and right. On Wednesday, The UK reported 78,610 new cases—their biggest one-day jump ever. Then, get this, they actually broke their own record again on Thursday with 88,376 new cases! France isn't far behind either, hitting their own massive one-day spike with 65,713 cases. Even Denmark is seeing its highest caseload to date. In All of Thes places , Omicron is largely driving explosive spread , but delta is still around too. Check out the graph from virologist Trevor Bedford below, where he breaks down the cases by variant and country.
Trevor Bedford Twitter
Check out this latest projection from December 14th. If you look at what the CDC put out—they estimated Omicron made up about 2.9% of cases on December 11th, which is a massive jump from just 0.4% back on December 4th. It’s wild, right? Based on how these models are looking, we should expect case rates to really start spiking between Christmas and New Years. On a national scale, WE will probably peak in The second Week of January.
JWeiland Twitter
I’ve gotta say, I’m really not buying this graph showing us hitting that 1 million mark. Just doesn't sit right with me. Anyone else feeling skeptical? Look, let's be real for a second. We just don't have the testing capacity to keep up with numbers like these. Honestly? We’re going to run out of everything—tests, reagents, even the damn plastic supplies. Lab capacity isn't infinite, you know? We’re probably going to see a plateau in the official case reporting soon, but don't let that fool you. The "true" number of cases could still be climbing through the roof while the charts look flat. Makes sense, right?
Look, we're talking about the whole country here. But honestly? Omicron in areas like New York is well on its way. In fact, New York / New Jersey has The highest proportion of Omicron cases in The United States at about 13%. You can really feel the impact hitting us already. Just look at the numbers: Yesterday New York reported 18,276 cases - their biggest one-day increase since January 2021. And get this—8,318 are in New York City alone. Crazy, right?
So, why is Omicron spreading like wildfire? Seriously, what's the deal there? I was reading about those recent studies, and it turns out things are getting pretty wild. In The First , a Group of scientists in Hong Kong took human tissue fra The bronchus and Lung and infected IT with Omicron. And get this—Omicron replicated 70 Times higher Than The delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2. Isn't that just insane? It’s like the virus found a massive turbo button. Does anyone else find it crazy how fast this is moving? Just goes to show how much things can shift overnight.
I'm pretty much certain the epi data shows Omicron is spreading like wildfire, but honestly, we've all just been sitting around waiting for the actual lab work to back that up on a microscopic level. Well, the wait is over. The First Two lab Studies came yesterday.
In The First , a Group of scientists in Hong Kong took human tissue fra The bronchus and Lung and infected IT with Omicron. They wanted to see exactly how fast this thing replicates when it goes up against variants like delta. So, what was the verdict?
AT 24 Hours after infection, Omicron replicated 70 Times higher Than The delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2 in the bronchial tissue. Crazy, right? Just think about that.
Interestingly, Omicron actually replicated way less efficiently—like, 10 times lower—in lung tissue compared to the original SARS-CoV-2. Pretty wild, right?
University of Hong Kong source here
This specific rate matters big time. See, you aren't even contagious until that viral load hits a certain tipping point. The faster the virus hits that mark, the sooner the person becomes a spreader. Now, obviously, a petri dish isn't exactly a human body, right? But this study definitely backs up the massive case growth we're actually seeing out there in the real world. And get this—the second study found pretty much the exact same thing.
But look, that's just one piece of the whole transmissibility puzzle. We have to talk about how Omicron is also partially dodging both vaccine immunity and the immunity you get from being infected. Honestly, at this stage, we've already seen more than ten different studies pointing to this exact thing. So, what does that mean? It means even the vaccinated folks—especially those who only have two doses under their belt—are still going to catch it and pass the virus along. Isn't that something?
Hospitalizations
But look, having a massive spike in cases because the virus replicates super fast and dodges our antibodies? That’s only half the picture. The real goal is staying out of the hospital. Before Omicron showed up, immunity did a massive job of keeping people away from hospital beds. Check out this graph from the UK—it shows that "fanning" effect where cases start to drift away from actual hospitalizations and deaths once the vaccines hit the scene.
If you haven't grabbed a booster yet, your first line of defense is looking a little thin. Neutralizing antibodies just aren't going to stop you from catching Omicron or passing it to someone else. But hey, there's a silver lining: T-cells should still do a great job of keeping folks out of the hospital.
Now, the folks with boosters? They’re sitting pretty. Boosters basically give the immune system a wake-up call and ramp up those antibody numbers. The more antibodies floating around, the better they can hunt down those tiny landing spots on Omicron. This is what helps drop the number of breakthrough cases and slows down the spread.
Plus, boosters build a much wider net of immunity. Basically, they train your body to recognize more pieces of the virus than the initial shots did. A lab study from yesterday actually backed this up. The researchers said:
“The antibody response after boosting is fundamentally different than it was before. It's not just raising the level of the existing antibodies, it's doing a lot more than that. Calling the third shot a booster is oversimplifying.”
Balazs Lab Here
In places where boosters aren't common (like South Africa) or where coverage isn't quite there yet (like the United States), we have to ask: How much can natural immunity and just two doses actually protect us from ending up in a hospital bed? And how many people are walking around with zero protection at all?
We are seeing hospitalizations and deaths increase in South Africa, but the rates aren't nearly as scary as they were before. Down in Gauteng—which is basically South Africa’s epicenter—hospitalizations are about 45% lower than what we saw with Delta. Excess deaths are starting to pick up steam, but they're still much lower than previous waves. Just remember, on a global scale, even a tiny percentage can turn into a huge number really fast when a virus moves this quickly.
Older adults
I’m getting pretty worried about our seniors. Earlier this week, the Kaiser Family Foundation dropped a report about serious breakthrough cases here in the US. They found that over two-thirds (69%) of COVID-19 hospitalizations involving breakthroughs were in people aged 65 and up. Since only 52% of Americans 65+ have had a booster, this group is definitely going to see a lot of breakthrough cases. I really, really hope they stay out of the hospital.
0-4 year old hospitalizations
South Africa is still reporting higher hospitalization rates in the 0-4 age group. We actually got an update from a hospital a few days back—kids are seeing a 20% higher hospitalization rate with Omicron compared to what happened with Delta.
But the hospital provided some really important context: “Incidental COVID19 diagnoses among children exceeded COVID19 specific admissions.” To put it simply, more kids are being hospitalized "with COVID19" (like they broke an arm and tested positive) rather than "for COVID19" (meaning the virus itself is causing the crisis). So, the jump in admissions is probably just a reflection of how much the virus is circulating in the community. Is that good news? I don't know. But it's not necessarily bad news either.
Bottom Line
Case numbers are going to skyrocket. They'll go as high as our testing systems can possibly handle. Even if the disease isn't as severe as it used to be (whether that's thanks to immunity or the virus changing, who knows?), the sheer volume of people getting sick means more people will end up in hospitals.
Please, try to use a layered defense this holiday season. There are still 75 million Americans who are relying on the “herd” to protect them through no choice of their own. Your personal risk might be low, but Omicron poses a massive risk to society as a whole.
Love, YLE
coppercyclist17 said:So, according to the New England Journal of MedicineThe most common symptoms being reported are: runny nose, headaches, fatigue (both mild and heavy), sneezing, and sore throats.
Am I losing my mind here, or is the whole world just totally hypnotized and freaking out over what feels like a regular old cold? Honestly, the craziest part is that you apparently need three doses of some drug just to participate in society because of a runny nose or a headache. And natural immunity... I mean, who even cares about that anymore? 😵
