Sandra Murphy33 said:At that point, you’re talking about transcendence or pure guesswork. 😉
A Sage would be someone who, in most instances, "guesses" correctly—meaning they possess a predictive power reliable enough to base one's positioning upon.
If that foresight serves the entire community, then we call them a Sage.
If it serves nothing but their own interests, they aren't a Sage; they're just a trader... or perhaps an entrepreneur. 😎
That's it
Not all guesswork is created equal. Guessing seven numbers on a Powerball ticket is wildly unreliable, so the attempt itself isn't particularly wise.
Predicting climate change, however, isn't quite the same thing. While the results aren't 100% certain, they are significantly more reliable than mere chance and certainly relevant.
That's because we aren't dealing with purely randomized events; we're dealing with highly complex systems. With enough experience, massive datasets, and decent analytical tools, you can make a pretty solid call on what's coming next.
I’d make a distinction here between guessing and predicting. If we define guessing as an attempt to hit a target in a randomized scenario—whether truly random or just appearing that way because we lack good data and analysis
(either objectively or just from our limited perspective)—then prediction is its exact opposite.
Even if a prediction benefits the community, if the person is part of that group, they're still just a trader. An empathetic altruist is essentially just an automated trader who lacks the intelligence or self-awareness to recognize their own transactional mechanics. In fact, they might be so controlled by these internalized, automatic impulses that they can't even correct them when they become dysfunctional, which isn't exactly wise.