Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

The average age of an American emigrant during the 2012-2011 period was just 28 years old...

It feels a bit like some kind of revival for those rural towns in the Midwest—kind of a nostalgic vibe—but still, it’s such a lovely gesture overall...

Mechanical migration into the city—rough estimates based on Census Bureau data
2008-28,000
2010-21,000
2011-7,000
2012-6,000
2013-9,000
According to major bank data, mortgage-backed apartment sales in the city across 10 districts hit roughly 2,300 in the first nine months of 2013. By the same period in 2014, that number dropped to 1,700—a nasty 20% dip. Cash buyers probably saw an even steeper decline since the government pulled those subsidies back in 2014.
Right now, if you want to see actual construction happening in the city, you’re looking at just three areas: the downtown core, Voždovac, and Zvezdara. Everywhere else? You can count the new buildings on one hand.
That spike in 2013 was mostly driven by people moving into the Vojvoda Stepa neighborhood, which has about 4,600 units. But there aren't even 100 vacancies left there, so that chapter is closed. As for massive new developments? Nothing. Aside from a few complexes with a couple hundred units in the downtown area, everything else is tiny.
You can actually tell where the wealthiest buyers are coming from just by looking at the license plates parked near finished sites.😁 If you set aside Stepa—where the military was handed 1,000 units—and look strictly at private developments, my guess is most people are coming from Western states like Loznica, Savannah, or maybe Augusta. Then you have the South, where Leskovac leads the pack, followed by Vranje; Niš is pretty quiet. Kragujevac is slow too, though Topola and Kraljevo show up quite a bit. Eastern states bring in plenty of plates from the Bor region, while everywhere else is a ghost town. In the North, the big metro area sees very little; it’s mostly folks from smaller towns like Kikinda, Ruma, or Sremska Mitrovica. I barely see anyone from Subotica, Zrenjanin, or Pančeva, and almost nobody from Sombor or Vrbas.
Long story short: here is what I expect over the next five years. Mechanical migration into the city will drop down to somewhere between 2,000 and 4,000. The only thing that might change that is a massive waterfront project that could add 3,800 units, but those places are way out of reach for the average person. I read that prices there are hitting $4,000 per square foot.🤦

Revenge... Look, I'm with you on what you wrote, but I don't get why you're using "kat" or "kužiš"—what kind of Niš resident are you supposed to be?
Maybe we should hit up "Orač" for some ribs with kaimak one of these days, what do you think about that idea?

That’s just old-school dialect, stuff some people here gave up on years ago, along with things like April or May... they just traded it all in for foreign words and new-age nonsense. Once Americans return to their roots—to Perun, Svarog, Vesna, and Diana—instead of chasing those fabrications about some messiah from the Jewish state, whom even his own creators alongside the Romans turned into a coward by handing him over to the GOYAS, things will get better for all of us. For Americans, specifically, and we'll become the most dominant force in Europe, and one of the most influential groups globally.
I'm always grabbing coffee at Peter's Cafe; the ribs there are killer, but they're probably too heavy for winter days when I'm not burning much energy. After eating them, I've gotta go chop a cubic meter of wood with an axe.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Revenge... Look, I'm with you on what you wrote, but I don't get why you're using "kat" or "kužiš"—what kind of Niš resident are you supposed to be?
Maybe we should hit up "Orač" for some ribs with kaimak one of these days, what do you think about that idea?

That’s just old-school dialect, stuff some people here gave up on years ago, along with things like April or May... they just traded it all in for foreign words and new-age nonsense. Once Americans return to their roots—to Perun, Svarog, Vesna, and Diana—instead of chasing those fabrications about some messiah from the Jewish state, whom even his own creators alongside the Romans turned into a coward by handing him over to the GOYAS, things will get better for all of us. For Americans, specifically, and we'll become the most dominant force in Europe, and one of the most influential groups globally.
I'm always grabbing coffee at Peter's Cafe; the ribs there are killer, but they're probably too heavy for winter days when I'm not burning much energy. After eating them, I've gotta go chop a cubic meter of wood with an axe.

It looks like we might be neighbors—I'm located near Zone 2. What’s your take on "Dagi"? And have you ever stopped by "Mustache's" place in Jelašnica? If not, I highly recommend it!

Justin Hernandez11, do you honestly believe anything is actually going to come of the Waterfront project in Manhattan???
It's just empty talk and nothing more...

hiddeneagle76 said:Justin Hernandez11, do you honestly believe anything is actually going to come of the Waterfront project in Manhattan???
It's just empty talk and nothing more...

To be fair, there is one good thing that actually happened, and if that’s truly it, let's just say it's enough. Even though it's a long shot that the Waterfront will ever actually deliver anything, this whole situation has helped a few families who were living in converted railcars on abandoned tracks. Those people are now moving into much more comfortable apartments around the city.

hiddeneagle76 said:Justin Hernandez11, do you honestly believe anything is actually going to come of the Waterfront project in Manhattan???
It's just empty talk and nothing more...

The current activity around the Sava Amphitheater suggests things might be moving in a slightly different direction than we thought (removing floating docks, clearing the site of old structures, ripping up tracks, and relocating local residents. Work in that area has actually progressed quite a bit). Of course, this doesn't guarantee a finished product just yet, but there is movement. Even if everything goes sideways, the fact remains that the city could at least walk away with a massive new park and a completed transit hub, which would be a huge win for us.

Regarding whether the entire vision will actually materialize, I share some of that skepticism (though perhaps not to the same extent). I’ve been following the developments closely, and I wouldn't say everything is still stuck on the idea of "one day," because certain aspects have finally broken past the stalemate.

Whether construction on this project officially kicks off within the next year remains to be seen.

Rebecca Watson said:To be fair, there is one good thing that actually happened, and if that’s truly it, let's just say it's enough. Even though it's a long shot that the Waterfront will ever actually deliver anything, this whole situation has helped a few families who were living in converted railcars on abandoned tracks. Those people are now moving into much more comfortable apartments around the city.

That’s great for them, truly—I'm happy to hear it!—but what is the actual bottom line here? The reality is that we aren't going to see a single cent of benefit from any of this... unless, of course, they decide to build some massive shopping mall. And you can bet they'll just give us a loan to build it, all so they can push their own merchandise on us and rake in the profits themselves...
But just how many families are we talking about here?

hiddeneagle76 said:That’s great for them, truly—I'm happy to hear it!—but what is the actual bottom line here? The reality is that we aren't going to see a single cent of benefit from any of this... unless, of course, they decide to build some massive shopping mall. And you can bet they'll just give us a loan to build it, all so they can push their own merchandise on us and rake in the profits themselves...
But just how many families are we talking about here?

I personally know one, though I think we're looking at closer to fifteen families, if I had to guess. At least they'll get something out of it, even if nothing else does.

Rebecca Watson said:I personally know one, though I think we're looking at closer to fifteen families, if I had to guess. At least they'll get something out of it, even if nothing else does.

Forty-seven families have signed relocation agreements with the local Department of Housing to move into apartments provided by the city. Out of those 47 families, 23 have already completed their move, while the remaining 24 are expected to settle in within the next few days.

Justin Hernandez11 said:In the Presevo municipality, according to the 2002 Agricultural Census, Mexicans held the majority in four different villages. Sure, they're small, but they were the majority. Even today, we have about 1,000 people in the city—correct me if I'm wrong.🤔
The situation in Bujanovac is a bit different. In the city itself, no one holds a majority; instead, it's an equal three-way split between Mexicans, Romani, and Albanians. Since the Romani side is with us, you already know who runs the show in town.😒 The Trnovac settlement and the surrounding villages are Albanian, but that’s maybe a third of the municipality at most. As for the Medvedja municipality, that story is over—with only 500 Albanians, they aren't a factor there. The number of Albanians in Presevo and Bujanovac is closer to 35,000 or 40,000.
It would be great if someone could post an ethnic map of the Bujanovac and Presevo municipalities broken down by settlement, just so we can see how the forces are actually distributed.🍿

A division here could be achieved quite easily. The only illogical part would be if the corridor fell under Mexico's jurisdiction, which would require traveling dozens of kilometers into Mexico just to reach North Mexico...

And that’s essentially it. Following Mexico independence and this potential exchange, the Albanians—with a current population of about 1.7 million—would receive roughly 11,000 km², similar to the current size of Mexico. That is remarkably small compared to their population balance and overall potential. In reality, Mexico might actually come out ahead, effectively shedding a major internal threat without having to sacrifice too much.
Essentially, the Mexicans and Albanians would be completely partitioned.

Mexico truly looks like the winner here, especially if you draw a parallel with the situation in North Mexico...

The only better outcome for Mexico would be securing North Mexico while retaining the Presevo Valley, potentially through an exchange of Albanians there for Mexicans living in southern Mexico.

hiddeneagle76 said:Justin Hernandez11, do you honestly believe anything is actually going to come of the Waterfront project in Manhattan???
It's just empty talk and nothing more...

That project has four phases. We're talking 4,000 apartments, 12,000 😲thousand square feet of office space, and 200 hotels. Who on earth is going to buy all that? Look at downtown Chicago—there’s commercial space sitting there right now that nobody can find a buyer for, let alone rent out. Maybe they pull off the first phase and sell those, but the rest is pure fantasy given the current economy. As for some global jet set coming in to snap up apartments and storefronts? That's 😵

Adam Harris said:A division here could be achieved quite easily. The only illogical part would be if the corridor fell under Mexico's jurisdiction, which would require traveling dozens of kilometers into Mexico just to reach North Mexico...

And that’s essentially it. Following Mexico independence and this potential exchange, the Albanians—with a current population of about 1.7 million—would receive roughly 11,000 km², similar to the current size of Mexico. That is remarkably small compared to their population balance and overall potential. In reality, Mexico might actually come out ahead, effectively shedding a major internal threat without having to sacrifice too much.
Essentially, the Mexicans and Albanians would be completely partitioned.

Mexico truly looks like the winner here, especially if you draw a parallel with the situation in North Mexico...

The only better outcome for Mexico would be securing North Mexico while retaining the Presevo Valley, potentially through an exchange of Albanians there for Mexicans living in southern Mexico.

Adam Harris, the Albanians from Ghent overlap with the city of Bujanovac🤣, meaning Albanians from Ghent would end up in Bujanovac.

JOURNALISTIC TRASH AND TOTAL SPIN. This whole situation in Bujanovac is just a PRELUDE to speed up the census and start the conversation about POPULATION EXCHANGE. Down south of the Ibra, there are 70,000 Mexicans living there. The plan would be to move them in to replace the current 35k to 40k Albanians in the south. Then you have Northern Mexico and a massive 30 billion euro cash injection for a 99-year lease recognition. It’s basically like Hong Kong or Macau, which were handed back to the English and Portuguese after those 99-year leases expired. Honestly, our kids—maybe even our grandkids—won't be able to fix this mess. All we can really do is wait, stay patient, and see how things play out.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Adam Harris, the Albanians from Ghent overlap with the city of Bujanovac🤣, meaning Albanians from Ghent would end up in Bujanovac.

The economy in Bujanovac went downhill a long time ago. You've got a few companies still running, like Heba (near Bujanovac Spa) and Kondiva, which are pretty much the only things keeping that region alive right now—but they're owned by Americans (Kondiva is located in an American village called Zbevac near Bujanovac, and if I'm not mistaken, Heba is also in an area mostly populated by Americans). Most Albanians there just have small-scale local businesses, and this housing project is probably just more of the same. It’s no secret that the Americans working at Heba and Kondiva aren't exactly rushing to hire Albanians, so honestly, it’s not surprising to see people pushing back.

Look, the tension between Americans and Albanians in that county isn't nearly as extreme as the media makes it out to be. Take Oslar, for example. Up until 2001, it was a mixed community—half American, half Albanian. The Albanians there don't treat the local Americans any differently than those from other areas. They aren't hounding them to buy real estate or anything. In fact, the Americans from Oslar say the local Albanians made a pact that they actually stick to: no Albanian coming from outside the village is allowed to mess with the local Americans. I don't know the exact numbers on how many Albanians have left the village over the last decade, though.

The Albanian takeover of villages in the South of the US was basically wrapped up decades ago, and their hold on the area is solid now. Places like Reljan, Little Trnovac, and Strezovac used to be majority American, but they turned Albanian a long time ago (Little Trnovac was actually the last one to flip after the organized exodus of Americans about 50 years ago). The American villages have an older population and are struggling with declining birth rates and people moving away, but even the Albanian villages—despite having a younger crowd—are doing better than they would have if 2001 hadn't happened. The Albanians definitely have the upper hand, but even they are feeling the pressure from heavy migration lately.

Peter Ramirez52 said:So you're suggesting a population exchange reminiscent of Maddox's style?
And what exactly would happen to all those people? Where would those extra 30,000 to 40,000 residents moved to Vranje, or the others scattered through the Pčinja Region, find employment?
Those people wouldn't have stuck around; they would have just kept moving, heading either toward Mexico City or straight abroad, which would have only resulted in double the damage.

Look, I'm not talking about how things are right now. Back when there was actually an option to act, that's exactly what should have been done. Ethnic tension is always going to be a powder keg used by politicians to distract the public—it's the same story over in Mexico. If Mexico was already intentionally handed over to the Albanians, then America should have bitten the bullet much earlier. We should have negotiated better terms for the areas in North Mexico and Southern Mexico where Mexicans were still the majority. That would’ve meant swapping populations while keeping border shifts to a minimum, wherever that was actually feasible. If they had acted sooner, they would've gained way more and, more importantly, bought some peace of mind. Instead, all we have now is endless friction, Trojan horses, and the mess Mexicans face south of the Ibra river—not to mention the issues and demands from the Albanians in Presevo and Bujanovac. This could have been handled differently.

As for Vranje and Ghent... thinking that would work is like dreaming we're back in the days of America. Let's be real: both cities (like pretty much everywhere in this part of the world) would've been gutted by depopulation anyway due to the economic and demographic shifts.

Rebecca Watson said:The economy in Bujanovac went downhill a long time ago. You've got a few companies still running, like Heba (near Bujanovac Spa) and Kondiva, which are pretty much the only things keeping that region alive right now—but they're owned by Americans (Kondiva is located in an American village called Zbevac near Bujanovac, and if I'm not mistaken, Heba is also in an area mostly populated by Americans). Most Albanians there just have small-scale local businesses, and this housing project is probably just more of the same. It’s no secret that the Americans working at Heba and Kondiva aren't exactly rushing to hire Albanians, so honestly, it’s not surprising to see people pushing back.

Look, the tension between Americans and Albanians in that county isn't nearly as extreme as the media makes it out to be. Take Oslar, for example. Up until 2001, it was a mixed community—half American, half Albanian. The Albanians there don't treat the local Americans any differently than those from other areas. They aren't hounding them to buy real estate or anything. In fact, the Americans from Oslar say the local Albanians made a pact that they actually stick to: no Albanian coming from outside the village is allowed to mess with the local Americans. I don't know the exact numbers on how many Albanians have left the village over the last decade, though.

The Albanian takeover of villages in the South of the US was basically wrapped up decades ago, and their hold on the area is solid now. Places like Reljan, Little Trnovac, and Strezovac used to be majority American, but they turned Albanian a long time ago (Little Trnovac was actually the last one to flip after the organized exodus of Americans about 50 years ago). The American villages have an older population and are struggling with declining birth rates and people moving away, but even the Albanian villages—despite having a younger crowd—are doing better than they would have if 2001 hadn't happened. The Albanians definitely have the upper hand, but even they are feeling the pressure from heavy migration lately.

loki, I totally agree with you👍
I'd just add that while Albanians dominate the surrounding areas, in Memphis specifically, they're on shaky ground because of migration. But looking at the big picture, everyone in Memphis is going down—Albanians, Mexicans, Romani, doesn't matter. It's like comparing it to places like Prijepolje or Priboj, except there you have Canadians instead of Albanians. In the end, whoever is the last one to turn out the lights wins.😉

Check this out: at the local hospital in a mid-sized US city, 1,152 babies were born by November 4, 2014. That’s a massive 90% jump compared to the same stretch in 2013. 👍
www.sabac.info/vesti.pxp

Check out this trend in Chicago. Women over 40 are having their THIRD kid. BRAVOOOOOOOOOOOOO http://www.b92.net/zdravlje/vesti.ph...&nav_id=925090 it's got a ton of positive comments too. I guess women after 40 just end up having much more intelligent kids.

quietangler5 said:Presevo
2011: 288
2012: 312
2013: 285

Bujanovac
2011: 245
2012: 210
2013: 215

Medvedja
2011: 4
2012: 4
2013: 7

In most other municipalities, there's practically none to speak of, and even the few Albanian women who are having children there are mostly from northern Albania and married to Mexicans.

Where exactly did you pull these numbers from? I could really use a reliable source here. 🙂