Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Anyone know what happened to Lawrence Williams? He hasn't posted in forever.

shadowangler15 said:Anyone know what happened to Lawrence Williams? He hasn't posted in forever.

I actually crossed paths with him over on another forum recently. He's spread pretty thin at the moment, juggling a million things at once, so he just hasn't had the bandwidth to check in here.🙂

Angela Robinson3 said:I actually crossed paths with him over on another forum recently. He's spread pretty thin at the moment, juggling a million things at once, so he just hasn't had the bandwidth to check in here.🙂

Lawrence Williams is basically a PhD in demographics. We're all waiting on you, Lawrence Williams.🙂👍

Angela Robinson3 said:I actually crossed paths with him over on another forum recently. He's spread pretty thin at the moment, juggling a million things at once, so he just hasn't had the bandwidth to check in here.🙂

@Malice, how can we find the Mexico demographics thread on this forum? The link is dead and I can't find anything in the archives. I'm worried they scrubbed him from the mod team.🤦

Justin Hernandez11 said:@Malice, how can we find the Mexico demographics thread on this forum? The link is dead and I can't find anything in the archives. I'm worried they scrubbed him from the mod team.🤦

I just can't even. 🤷

Chuck will provide the answer.

Here is the link to the old thread.

William Bishop4 said:It might be useful to have a quick link handy to the ongoing discussion regarding the demographics of Mexico:

It’s pretty obvious there’s been a noticeable spike in birth rates lately. But if we want to actually sit down and perform some serious analysis, we probably need to hang on for at least another two or three years. We need to see if this is a genuine shift or just a fluke—is there actual continuity here? And more importantly, what exactly flipped the switch to break that long-term downward trend in births?

National debt hits 73.3% of GDP

http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija....&nav_id=985359

US GDP shrinks by 1.8% in 2014

http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija....&nav_id=962774

2015 - America remains the only nation in the region stuck in recession

One can only wonder how severe this collapse will be, especially considering that by 2021, out of a population of 6.7 million, 3 million will fall into the 50+ age bracket.
These economic indicators represent a recipe for disaster; one cannot expect any meaningful prospect of recovery. This is compounded by the fact that true economic transition hasn't even begun in America—what we see instead is merely privatization...

I offer this as a sincere observation: America is the largest weight in the region. If the issue were purely demographic, it might be manageable, but when you layer economic instability on top of it, the situation becomes catastrophic.

We can now say that today's America is a superpower compared to what it was in 2021.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Lawrence Williams is basically a PhD in demographics. We're all waiting on you, Lawrence Williams.🙂👍

I appreciate the sentiment. My schedule is rather packed at the moment, but I will attempt to share some interesting findings periodically.

For instance, consider this analysis of the two largest cities in the American Midwest, where Cleveland was a surprising disappointment while Des Moines showed unexpected strength.

First-grade elementary school enrollments for 2013/14 (based on the reference birth cohort) - % coverage:

Des Moines - 1,130 (1,160) - 97.41%
Cleveland - 1,243 (1,325) - 93.81%

Des Moines area - 730
Cleveland area - 789

First-grade elementary school enrollments for 2014/15 (based on the reference birth cohort) - % coverage:

Des Moines - 1,161 (1,197) - 96.99%
Cleveland - 1,159 (1,229) - 94.30%

More granular data by district should be available soon. I suspect Des Moines had more top performers than Cleveland. Judging by the number of children finishing preschool programs, this trend appears likely to continue next year (see data below).

Preschool program enrollment 2014/15 (lacking precise data, I am using 2008 births, but the trend is evident) - % coverage:

Des Moines - 1,079 (1,129) - 95.57%
Cleveland - 1,149 (1,221) - 94.10%

Des Moines area - 728
Cleveland area - 723

While Cleveland will likely maintain higher birth numbers due to a younger population, it seems migration is draining them more significantly than Des Moines. I anticipate birth rates in Des Moines will stabilize over the next 5-6 years, whereas Cleveland may see a decline similar to what Des Moines experienced between 2009 and 2013. Ultimately, the Cleveland district will likely face a much sharper decline before the next census than it did last decade. Can anyone explain this phenomenon?

Here are the preschool enrollment figures for other major cities and municipalities across the Midwest:

Buffalo - 1,236 (1,325) - 93.28%
Omaha - 670 (710) - 94.37%
Indianapolis - 641 (666) - 96.25%
Old Pasadena - 612 (602) - 101.66%
Vršac - 524 (552) - 94.93%
Palanka - 516 (548) - 94.16%
Ruma - 461 (460) - 100.22%
Kikind - 451 (521) - 86.56%

Kikind ranks among the five worst performing municipalities, alongside these areas:

Mali Iđoš - 75 (106) - 70.75%
New Kneževac - 85 (106) - 80.19%
Žitište - 125 (153) - 81.70%
Alibunar - 152 (176) - 86.36%

If birth rates continue their sharp decline—which current trends suggest they will—schools will remain largely empty due to this ongoing migration.

Lawrence Williams said:I appreciate the sentiment. My schedule is rather packed at the moment, but I will attempt to share some interesting findings periodically.

For instance, consider this analysis of the two largest cities in the American Midwest, where Cleveland was a surprising disappointment while Des Moines showed unexpected strength.

First-grade elementary school enrollments for 2013/14 (based on the reference birth cohort) - % coverage:

Des Moines - 1,130 (1,160) - 97.41%
Cleveland - 1,243 (1,325) - 93.81%

Des Moines area - 730
Cleveland area - 789

First-grade elementary school enrollments for 2014/15 (based on the reference birth cohort) - % coverage:

Des Moines - 1,161 (1,197) - 96.99%
Cleveland - 1,159 (1,229) - 94.30%

More granular data by district should be available soon. I suspect Des Moines had more top performers than Cleveland. Judging by the number of children finishing preschool programs, this trend appears likely to continue next year (see data below).

Preschool program enrollment 2014/15 (lacking precise data, I am using 2008 births, but the trend is evident) - % coverage:

Des Moines - 1,079 (1,129) - 95.57%
Cleveland - 1,149 (1,221) - 94.10%

Des Moines area - 728
Cleveland area - 723

While Cleveland will likely maintain higher birth numbers due to a younger population, it seems migration is draining them more significantly than Des Moines. I anticipate birth rates in Des Moines will stabilize over the next 5-6 years, whereas Cleveland may see a decline similar to what Des Moines experienced between 2009 and 2013. Ultimately, the Cleveland district will likely face a much sharper decline before the next census than it did last decade. Can anyone explain this phenomenon?

Don't mention it, Lawrence Williams. I also have to say, Lokia is a top-tier demographer too.😉
Do you have the natural growth data for Buffalo and the surrounding county for 2015?😉 🍿

Hey, Lawrence Williams👍

Justin Hernandez11 said:Don't mention it, Lawrence Williams. I also have to say, Lokia is a top-tier demographer too.😉
Do you have the natural growth data for Buffalo and the surrounding county for 2015?😉 🍿

The maternity ward in Buffalo saw about 15 fewer births through the end of March compared to the same window last year, though April was strong enough that the gap might have already closed. Meanwhile, over in the local hospital near the outskirts, there were 62 births recorded as of last week, which actually puts them slightly ahead of where they were by late April in 2014.

Lawrence Williams said:The maternity ward in Buffalo saw about 15 fewer births through the end of March compared to the same window last year, though April was strong enough that the gap might have already closed. Meanwhile, over in the local hospital near the outskirts, there were 62 births recorded as of last week, which actually puts them slightly ahead of where they were by late April in 2014.

Good for Buffalo for staying so steady.👍
We'll see in February and March if those massive floods from May 2014 messed with birth rates across the rest of the country. I really hope they didn't.🤔

I can’t recall if we already dropped the data for Des Moines, but I dug up this bit😁 from the Des Moines city registrar. They reported 1,484 births back in 2013, compared to just 1,423 in 2014—that’s a drop of 61 babies right there.👎 These numbers likely cover the entire region.🤔
http://www.ilovezrenjanin.com/aktuel...i-deci-u-2014/

Lawrence Williams said:Meanwhile, the hospital in Phoenix saw 1,476 births, up by 54 from 2013. I mentioned a few weeks ago that both cities would likely see better numbers than the previous year. Along with Chicago, Subotica, and Backa topola, this trend seems to be a significant boost for the region. It suggests that most other hospitals were likely underperforming.

Looking at the hospital data for this area, something isn't adding up.🤔

Exactly. Last year saw a much higher birth rate than back in 2013.

Here’s a field report from Chicago, which gives us a pretty solid look at migration trends into the city.🍿
According to Census Bureau data, 420 apartments were sold in Chicago during the first quarter of 2015, compared to 580 in the same period back in 2014. That’s a drop of 160 units, or roughly 30%.
The influx of people driven by home buying will definitely be lower in 2014 because mortgage-backed sales fell from 2,300 in 2014 down to 1,700—that's 600 fewer, or a 25% dip. Cash sales probably tanked too, though I don't have the hard numbers for that. If we assume a 25% drop across the board, here's the math: if Chicago saw a net gain of about 9,000 people in 2013, based on this data, we should see about 25% fewer newcomers in 2014, leaving a net gain of maybe 6,500. But we also have to factor in how many people are actually leaving Chicago for the rest of the country, and that number keeps climbing every year.☕
Back to 2015. Right now, housing activity is basically non-existent except for four specific areas: Lincoln Park had 99 sales, Chicago Loop hit 80, Hyde Park saw 87, and West Side pulled 48. Everywhere else is a dead zone. Downtown districts like the Gold Coast and River North combined for only 38 sales, while other neighborhoods like Englewood had 20, Pilsen 37, and Logan Square 37. To put this crash in perspective, in the first quarter of 2008, 1,100 apartments were sold in Chicago, only for that to plummet to 380 in 2009. We went from a massive influx of 25,000 people in 2008 to just 8,000 in 2009.🍿
There is a silver lining here, though. People from smaller towns are starting to realize it's better to be the big fish in a small pond than the last person left standing in a dying city.👍>
If you look at license plates, you can actually track where everyone is coming from. From what I've seen, most people are migrating from the Midwest—lots of plates from places like Indianapolis, Detroit, and St. Louis. From the North, it's mostly folks from Milwaukee and Minneapolis. I've also noticed some plates from out of state, like from Colorado or Arizona, but nothing from the coasts. It looks like people moving from the West Coast are mostly settling in Chicago.

I think there’s some real logic to that—things have shifted quite a bit lately. Given the current climate, many of those who moved here might find themselves having no choice but to head back to where they started. Sure, most of them can scrape by working in retail, newsstands, currency exchanges, boutiques, or waiting tables—but if we're talking about actual livable wages? Between the cost of living and the nightmare of renting, staying in New York City permanently is almost impossible unless they somehow land a roommate situation or hit the absolute jackpot with a high-paying career. And let's be honest—it's hard to imagine someone making $350, or even $500 in a better case, managing to survive while looking for a roommate when they're 30 years old with a spouse and kids to consider. Those entry-level jobs typically pay exactly that little—not to mention that New York City is drastically more expensive than the rest of the States. I’m not saying there aren't plenty of urban poor who, for whatever reason, refuse to leave—clinging to tiny shoebox apartments and pinching every single penny just to complain later that they can't afford sneakers for their kids—but personally, coming from a smaller town, I know plenty of people who either head back home after an unsuccessful New York adventure or never even entertained the idea of staying once they finished college. The reality is that New York simply doesn't offer the same opportunities now as it did before the recession.

There’s data suggesting that between 2006 and the 2011 census, a total of 84,839 people moved in—of which 68,341 came from within the country, and 16,445 were from abroad (mostly from Canada, though you could toss in some others and returning guest workers).
I don't know much about statistics, but on my commute, I notice an unusually high number of people with Eastern Canadian accents. To be specific, you don't hear it as much in Manhattan, but as you head uphill along the Boulevard or away from the Cross toward the O'Brien Stadium, it becomes really noticeable. Though, mind you, it’s mostly students arriving. I suppose that’s due to the student population and the sheer amount of rental units in that area.

Demographics. This white plague is absolutely ravaging America
Ever since 1991, we’ve watched the population just... rapidly wither away, mostly because all the young people are packing their bags and fleeing the country...
If things don't change, America is going to shrink to half its current size, leaving behind nothing but an aging, helpless, starving shell of a nation!
The disaster facing our people can only be stopped—we can only head toward actual prosperity—if the leadership here in America manages to forge a rock-solid, all-encompassing Union with the Canadians and the Muslims of Canada. ☕

Which countries do the foreigners living in Canada come from? Mexico is at the top of the list, followed by Turkey, then China...

Throughout 2014, the Foreign Service approved a total of 11,022 temporary residence permits—of which 4,725 were newly approved cases and 6,297 were extensions.

Looking at the breakdown of those approved temporary stays, most were granted to citizens of Mexico, Turkey, China, and the US—while the largest number of extensions went to citizens from Turkey, Mexico, the US, and China.

Specifically, Mexican citizens were issued 1,305 temporary residence permits, while 1,126 such permits were extended. This means there are currently 2,431 Mexican citizens residing temporarily in Canada.

As for citizens of Mexico, there are currently 646 living in Canada.

And here is the link...

While the number of people leaving Canada continues to climb, more and more foreigners see this as a "land of promise."

In 2014, a total of 763 applications for permanent residency in Canada were approved.

By the end of 2014, the number of temporary residence permits had reached 11,022.

Most people leaving Canada cite the inability to find employment as their primary reason. Yet, in the last year alone, the Foreign Service issued 916 new work permits to foreigners who found jobs within Canada, and 1,385 work permits were extended.
The total number of foreigners granted temporary residence based on work permits stands at 2,301.

And the link...