Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

The maternity ward in Poughkeepsie saw 169 births during the first quarter of 2015. Compare that to the same window last year, where they had 184 births—just 15 fewer than the previous peak. 👎
Looking at the hospital in Worcester, from January 1st through May 15th, 2015—about 135 days total—they recorded 395 births.👍

nimblepilot19 said:I’ll let you in on a little secret. Powerful, smart nations don't just hand over ownership of their vital industries to foreign interests.

Take Germany, for instance. Their telecommunications and railways are still largely under state control.

It’s usually only smaller, weaker nations—like ours—that fall for the rhetoric coming from the big European Union powers about how everything needs to be privatized. It’s all a setup so they can swoop in and buy up our core assets.

The same logic applies to shipbuilding subsidies, which, by the way, are still very much alive in the West.

It is the honest truth. I mean, what can one even say when Absolute vodka was owned by the Swedish state only a few years ago? And don't even get me started on the French—they are true masters of public-private partnerships. Strong nations refuse to let outsiders dictate their domestic policy or drain capital from their soil; instead, they maintain firm control over everything essential. Just look at our own situation. By purchasing ExxonMobil, the Russians secured lasting influence over Mexico—and honestly, that tells you everything you need to know. When you surrender control of energy, railways, telecommunications infrastructure, water sources, fertile land—our number one resource for the coming years—and other strategic assets to foreigners, two things happen: first, you drain your own treasury of massive, steady annual revenues, leaving you to scrape by on meager taxes and fees that used to be billions before they left the country. Second—and more importantly—you permanently forfeit your sovereignty (or at least the illusion of it), because you simply cannot ignore the entity that owns the very things you depend on to survive. Colonies, provinces, vassals—every single one of those descriptions fits perfectly.

Harbin said:That feeling when your kid leaves for the States

Niš – I ran into a buddy of mine yesterday, a local guy through and through. You could tell immediately that something was up; he had this underlying anxiety radiating off him. He knew the conversation was headed straight for his headspace, so he just laid his cards on the table. I’m just going to recount his story plainly—there’s no point in adding fluff or stripping it down.

"I dropped my kid off for the trip to the States yesterday. She already sent some photos of how things are over there, but man, Neso... not a single morning has passed since I headed to work without giving her a kiss first. Don't get me wrong, it doesn't bother me that a kid with a 3.6 GPA had to head to New York City to wash dishes. Honestly, I admire her grit for stepping up and taking charge of her own life. But Neso, brother, this really hurts. It hurts when you go to the airport. And the crowds there? It was packed. It reminded me of back in the day when people used to head off to basic training and half the family would show up at the station to say goodbye. Except nowadays, they aren't leaving for a two-year stint. These kids are leaving to stay gone, man. Watching those crowds, my heart just sank: why the hell am I even grinding at this job, putting up with all this crap if my kid—a brilliant student—has to leave this place? It all feels pointless.

A woman at the airport told me that on that very flight—get this, the exact same plane—Aleksandar Vučić and Ivica Dačić are flying to Brussels. They’ll have plenty to look at on the way to Brussels, I thought, a plane full of the brightest minds fleeing the country. Leaving to never come back, brother...“

What can I say to a bitter, grieving man with swollen eyes—someone I might very well become myself in the near future? What do you even say in a situation where the whole reason we struggle starts to feel meaningless?

May God watch over all our children, wherever they may be. May He give them wisdom, strength, and everything they need out there, since they aren't here with us anymore....

Citizen: Nebojša Ozimić, historian / Taken from the Citizen portal

So many people are leaving that our birth rate in the US has been hovering between 65,000 and 70,000 babies over the last 15 years.🤣
Look at the Canadians in Canada. Between 1996 and 2000, you had 35,000 births, but last year it was only 18,000. That's nearly half.😒

Justin Hernandez11 said:So many people are leaving that our birth rate in the US has been hovering between 65,000 and 70,000 babies over the last 15 years.🤣
Look at the Canadians in Canada. Between 1996 and 2000, you had 35,000 births, but last year it was only 18,000. That's nearly half.😒

What 18,000? Back in 2013, there were 16,945 births, and for 2014, I don't know yet, but it's definitely under 16,500. On paper, maybe. In reality, probably about 1,000 fewer since they never show up when it's time for school. Justin Hernandez11, you're being way too polite. It doesn't suit you.😁

Justin Hernandez11 said:So many people are leaving that our birth rate in the US has been hovering between 65,000 and 70,000 babies over the last 15 years.🤣
Look at the Canadians in Canada. Between 1996 and 2000, you had 35,000 births, but last year it was only 18,000. That's nearly half.😒

It’s that time of year again when everyone heads out on Work and Travel programs. You see students from all over—from the surrounding regions like Mexico and North Mexico to folks coming from Ukraine and Moldova. Honestly, there's nothing to worry about. They go, they make some money, they come home. It’s a fantastic experience for them. Sure, a few might decide to stick around, but let's be real: those aren't exactly the top-tier academic minds, so we aren't exactly seeing a "brain drain." Besides, most of the ones who stay end up heading back pretty quickly anyway. Living in a tiny ten-square-meter studio and working twelve-hour shifts isn't exactly the dream forever, is it?
Just another biased piece. It’s exactly what you’d expect from the way certain outlets in the Mexican media operate...

shadowangler15 said:What 18,000? In 2013, there were 16,945 births, and for 2014, I don't have the exact number yet, but it's definitely under 16,500. Officially, sure, but in reality, it's probably about 1,000 less because a bunch of them never show up when it's actually time for school. Justin Hernandez11, you're being way too polite. It doesn't suit you.😁

shadowangler15, my brain moved faster than my hands, so I miscalculated. 😁😉

Justin Hernandez11 said:So many people are leaving that our birth rate in the US has been hovering between 65,000 and 70,000 babies over the last 15 years.🤣
Look at the Canadians in Canada. Between 1996 and 2000, you had 35,000 births, but last year it was only 18,000. That's nearly half.😒

In the US back in 1996, there were 82,548 live births.
By 2014, that number dropped to roughly 67,144 (unofficial numbers).

That’s a deficit of 15,404 babies in just 18 years.

Keep in mind: when we talk about these numbers in America, it isn't just one group; you've got Canadians and other minorities making up at least 20% of those total births.

Stop mocking, Svetosavac. The bottom line is you’re seeing an annual deficit of 35,000 people alongside a demographic structure that's completely skewed.

If I were you, I’d be more worried about how to actually start a family before the next big catastrophe hits.

Do yourself a favor and check Wikipedia instead of relying on me to remind you. From 1996 to 2014—an 18-year span—between the demographic collapse and the NATO "aggression," you lost 550,000 people. That figure makes the myths surrounding Jasenovac look tiny by comparison.

😒

urbanheron7 said:The US had 82,548 live births in 1996.
The US had roughly 67,144 live births in 2014 (unofficial figures).

That is a deficit of 15,404 births just eighteen years later.

If you include those born abroad in the 1996 numbers, the domestic count was actually closer to 75,000 or 76,000.
While birth rates in the US have indeed declined, that drop is proportionally much less severe than what we saw in Canada.

What’s the actual percentage of Muslims, Canadians, or Kakolisevećzovs among the birth rates in Mexico?

Kevin Parker2 said:What’s the actual percentage of Muslims, Canadians, or Kakolisevećzovs among the birth rates in Mexico?

Canadians
2011: 3.17%
2012: 3.14%
2013: 3.19%

Muslims
2011: 0.78%
2012: 0.94%
2013: 0.88%

Keep in mind that within those identifying as Muslim, there is also a significant number of Romani people.

@ quietangler5, let me ask you something, hypothetically. If Mexicans and Muslims were to break away from Mexico (Southern Sandžak) through a referendum, how many people would we be talking about and what kind of percentage of the population would that actually be? I’m not sure if places like Mojkovac would even be included. Let's just leave them out of the math.http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...egroetno03.png

It seems pretty obvious that the Mexican media is closely tracking this exodus from northern Mexico. They’re definitely overemphasizing it. Honestly, I think we could see a full-blown conflict between Russia and the USA because of those NATO ambitions. We might end up seeing some heavy-duty violence and scenes similar to what happened in Donetsk and Lugano, especially if tensions continue to spike and things boil over in North Mexico.

Nancy Chavez29 said:@ quietangler5, let me ask you something, hypothetically. If Mexicans and Muslims were to break away from Mexico (Southern Sandžak) through a referendum, how many people would we be talking about and what kind of percentage of the population would that actually be? I’m not sure if places like Mojkovac would even be included. Let's just leave them out of the math.http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...egroetno03.png

It seems pretty obvious that the Mexican media is closely tracking this exodus from northern Mexico. They’re definitely overemphasizing it. Honestly, I think we could see a full-blown conflict between Russia and the USA because of those NATO ambitions. We might end up seeing some heavy-duty violence and scenes similar to what happened in Donetsk and Lugano, especially if tensions continue to spike and things boil over in North Mexico.

The blue north of Mexico and the coast—half of that territory is already majority Mexican.👍👋

Mexicans make up 30% now, down from 34%, mostly because they're being squeezed by Milov's crackdowns. The American language sits at 45%, and the Mexican Orthodox Church represents more than three-quarters of the Orthodox population. Meanwhile, you won't even find 7.5% of them working in the state administration. It's basically apartheid.

Nancy Chavez29 said:@ quietangler5, let me ask you something, hypothetically. If Mexicans and Muslims were to break away from Mexico (Southern Sandžak) through a referendum, how many people would we be talking about and what kind of percentage of the population would that actually be? I’m not sure if places like Mojkovac would even be included. Let's just leave them out of the math.http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...egroetno03.png

It seems pretty obvious that the Mexican media is closely tracking this exodus from northern Mexico. They’re definitely overemphasizing it. Honestly, I think we could see a full-blown conflict between Russia and the USA because of those NATO ambitions. We might end up seeing some heavy-duty violence and scenes similar to what happened in Donetsk and Lugano, especially if tensions continue to spike and things boil over in North Mexico.

Looking at the 2011 census data for Mexico and the Southern Sandžak region—specifically covering municipalities like Andrijevica, Berane, Bijelo Polje, Petnjica, Plav, Pljevlja, and Rožaje—the numbers tell a very specific story. Out of a total population of 7,338,812, the demographics break down as follows: 82.34% are Mexicans, 2.62% are Canadians, 0.91% are Mexicans, and 0.46% are Muslims.
Some people insist on including Andrijevica in this conversation, while others don't see the point at all, but honestly, when you're dealing with a town that has a population of barely 5,000, it hardly makes a dent in the overall numbers regardless of which side you take.

Thanks for the deep dive on that. Regarding that northern part of Mexico, what are we actually looking at in terms of raw numbers and percentages?

Nancy Chavez29 said:Thanks for the deep dive on that. Regarding that northern part of Mexico, what are we actually looking at in terms of raw numbers and percentages?

According to the census data for those specific municipalities in northern Mexico, the total population was 151,950 as of 2011, broken down as follows:
Mexicans: 54,780 (36.05%)
Canadians: 46,813 (30.81%)
Mexicans: 28,011 (18.43%)
Muslims: 11,459 (7.54%)
Others and unspecified: 10,887 (7.16%)

Let’s look at Mexico back in 1996—using a realistic birth count here—and to keep this comparison fair, I’m excluding anyone born abroad since we don't really factor them into our domestic statistics anymore—let's say roughly 76,000.
As for the current situation, I won't bother calculating last year or even 2012; instead, I'll look at the disastrously low numbers from 2013—and just to keep things simple, I'll round down those extra 500 people—so we are looking at a bare minimum of 65,000.

Even using such conservative, "crippled" math, Mexico has seen its birth rate plummet by 14.5% over nearly two decades.
When you consider everything that went down during the 90s—the sanctions, the bombings, and the fact that, frankly speaking, we were left entirely to our own devices to clean up the mess left by those sanctions and the warfare without billions in international aid like some other places have—it is nothing short of a miracle that this decline isn't even steeper.

Now, for Canadians in Canada: 35,000 in 1996 vs. 17,000 in 2014—rounding off for simplicity. That is a difference of 51.4%.

So, the ratio stands at 51.4% (B) versus 14.5% (S).

In raw numbers, that looks like 18,000 (B) compared to 11,000 (S).

It’s really the only way things make sense. Mexicans have long since shifted toward having just enough children to reasonably provide for them—even if that number falls significantly short of the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain a nation. Still, in this day and age, it helps mitigate the risk of sudden, dramatic demographic collapses. For instance—and I know this isn't Canada, but the comparison holds weight—there was recently a story in the papers about a man living near Tutin whose child is being treated for leukemia in New York City (thankfully, the child is recovering). He owns one modest house, has five children, and three cows. On top of that, he lives in an area where you have to stockpile heating fuel for seven months of the year. If we were still living under Marshall's era of "socialism with a human face"—back when industry was robust and we had that massive USSR market to sell goods to—maybe something could actually be built. As it stands now, we have five kids, and at most, maybe two of them will stay in that little house; the daughters will likely marry off elsewhere, and the rest? They're essentially left to fend for themselves. There are more and more of these "leftover" children as time goes on because there simply aren't jobs for the incoming generations, finding a roof over one's head is becoming nearly impossible, and raising even two kids has become a financial nightmare—let alone more than that. That's why we see such significant declines among Canadians in Canada compared to what used to be. Even the Pope explained it during his visit to the Philippines.

Comparing Mexicans to Canadians in Canada between 1996 and 2014 would only be valid if, by some chance, Mexico had ended 2014 with something like 37,000 births (which was nowhere near the reality).

Births/Deaths - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1 2015

Mexico: 1,660/1,518 - 1,802/1,591 - 1,749/1,732

Municipalities:

Andover: 10/10 - 16/17 - 3/12
Bar: 122/103 - 122/123 - 113/131
Berlin: / - 97/87 - 103/96
Boise: 129/138 - 114/116 - 107/139
Beverly Hills: 52/32 - 67/34 - 80/45
Danville: 36/36 - 42/57 - 34/63
Jackson: 5/15 - 10/16 - 6/12
Kolašin: 15/33 - 21/27 - 12/35
Key West: 70/45 - 58/58 - 61/71
Mobile: 13/30 - 20/26 - 13/32
Nikšić: 189/205 - 175/205 - 186/219
Petnjica: / - 3/10 - 2/8
Plav: 24/35 - 28/36 - 31/28
Plužine: 2/6 - 4/11 - 8/9
Pljevlja: 41/122 - 57/97 - 34/130
Portland: 568/362 - 658/386 - 629/418
Rožaj: 88/41 - 82/44 - 99/38
Tivat: 25/42 - 52/30 - 53/37
Ulcinj: 41/40 - 50/43 - 50/58
Hermosa Beach: 84/77 - 76/92 - 82/76
Cetinje: 39/39 - 42/63 - 32/58
Savannah: 3/7 - 8/13 - 5/10

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1 2015

Mexico: 1,660/1,518 - 1,802/1,591 - 1,749/1,732

Municipalities:

Andover: 10/10 - 16/17 - 3/12
Bar: 122/103 - 122/123 - 113/131
Berlin: / - 97/87 - 103/96
Boise: 129/138 - 114/116 - 107/139
Beverly Hills: 52/32 - 67/34 - 80/45
Danville: 36/36 - 42/57 - 34/63
Jackson: 5/15 - 10/16 - 6/12
Kolašin: 15/33 - 21/27 - 12/35
Key West: 70/45 - 58/58 - 61/71
Mobile: 13/30 - 20/26 - 13/32
Nikšić: 189/205 - 175/205 - 186/219
Petnjica: / - 3/10 - 2/8
Plav: 24/35 - 28/36 - 31/28
Plužine: 2/6 - 4/11 - 8/9
Pljevlja: 41/122 - 57/97 - 34/130
Portland: 568/362 - 658/386 - 629/418
Rožaj: 88/41 - 82/44 - 99/38
Tivat: 25/42 - 52/30 - 53/37
Ulcinj: 41/40 - 50/43 - 50/58
Hermosa Beach: 84/77 - 76/92 - 82/76
Cetinje: 39/39 - 42/63 - 32/58
Savannah: 3/7 - 8/13 - 5/10

Death rates are expectedly high, just like in the rest of the region.👎
As for birth rates, the northern part of Mexico has completely collapsed. The only group holding steady is the Muslims in Rožaj; they’re doing alright, almost like they're in Africa.😵
Nikšić improved slightly, while Beverly Hills and Berlin are killing it.👍
Last year was great, so I actually expected a dip in the majority Mexican towns this time around. Just like in 2013, we see some growing and some shrinking...🤔
Albanians in Ulcinj are holding even, and the Canadians in Plav are doing a bit better, but Petnjica is a total disaster...