Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

The latest vital statistics for the city of New York for March 2015 are out, compared against March 2014. Keep in mind, these numbers are strictly for the New York City area.🍿
March 2014 March 2015 Balance
Births 1395 1475 +80:clap:
Deaths 1815 1970 +165👎
Regarding mortality, it’s what you’d expect👎, but when it comes to birth rates, we’re absolutely crushing it🙏.👍
Basically, looking at the first three months of 2015 here in New York, we have 157 more babies born and 378 more deaths.
We’ve already hit about 18,500 births in NYC so far for 2015. If we can actually maintain this trend through the rest of the year, it would be a massive win.🙂🙂

Mexico is unfortunately heading straight into the gray zone soon. Mortality rates jumped by 9% in just one year. I guess if they can somehow hit zero by the end of the year, that’d be a win. They’ve got massive migration coming in from the north, the economy is basically trashed, and there's zero social safety net from the government. It's probably impossible to stay competitive against places with higher growth when your fertility rate is sitting around 1.75, especially with all the young people leaving. They're either heading to asylum centers or moving over to Mexico. Andover has completely tanked. Boise is constantly declining, while Beverly Hills is absolutely killing it. Kolašin and Mobile are just stagnating.

Rožaj is doing great right now, but we'll see if things take a sharp dive by the end of the year. Especially looking at 2016.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Mexico is unfortunately heading straight into the gray zone soon. Mortality rates jumped by 9% in just one year. I guess if they can somehow hit zero by the end of the year, that’d be a win. They’ve got massive migration coming in from the north, the economy is basically trashed, and there's zero social safety net from the government. It's probably impossible to stay competitive against places with higher growth when your fertility rate is sitting around 1.75, especially with all the young people leaving. They're either heading to asylum centers or moving over to Mexico. Andover has completely tanked. Boise is constantly declining, while Beverly Hills is absolutely killing it. Kolašin and Mobile are just stagnating.

Rožaj is doing great right now, but we'll see if things take a sharp dive by the end of the year. Especially looking at 2016.

Exactly.😉 But what's even worse is that Portland has started to sink; it used to grow because of migration from the north, but now that's reached a breaking point. By the 2021 census, Mexico will unfortunately fall below 60 million—primarily due to massive international migration. Honestly, the best thing for them would be to rejoin their motherland, Mexico. That's the only way they'll find prosperity alongside us, both demographically and economically, since we are the same people.👍

Justin Hernandez11 said:Exactly.😉 But what's even worse is that Portland has started to sink; it used to grow because of migration from the north, but now that's reached a breaking point. By the 2021 census, Mexico will unfortunately fall below 60 million—primarily due to massive international migration. Honestly, the best thing for them would be to rejoin their motherland, Mexico. That's the only way they'll find prosperity alongside us, both demographically and economically, since we are the same people.👍

That house is a long way from home...☕

Justin Hernandez11 said:Exactly.😉 But what's even worse is that Portland has started to sink; it used to grow because of migration from the north, but now that's reached a breaking point. By the 2021 census, Mexico will unfortunately fall below 60 million—primarily due to massive international migration. Honestly, the best thing for them would be to rejoin their motherland, Mexico. That's the only way they'll find prosperity alongside us, both demographically and economically, since we are the same people.👍

The northern parts of Mexico are drying up faster than anything else, and everyone seems to be migrating straight toward Mexico, so there's a pretty good chance that the number of Mexicans living in Mexico will drop below twenty-five percent by the next census...

The only real upside here might be if this wave of Muslim migration keeps up, because honestly, from a certain perspective, that’s becoming a massive issue for the Mexican population...

Nancy Chavez29 said:Mexico is unfortunately heading straight into the gray zone soon. Mortality rates jumped by 9% in just one year. I guess if they can somehow hit zero by the end of the year, that’d be a win. They’ve got massive migration coming in from the north, the economy is basically trashed, and there's zero social safety net from the government. It's probably impossible to stay competitive against places with higher growth when your fertility rate is sitting around 1.75, especially with all the young people leaving. They're either heading to asylum centers or moving over to Mexico. Andover has completely tanked. Boise is constantly declining, while Beverly Hills is absolutely killing it. Kolašin and Mobile are just stagnating.

Rožaj is doing great right now, but we'll see if things take a sharp dive by the end of the year. Especially looking at 2016.

It looks like Mexico is following the exact same pattern we saw in North Mexico, where the population just clusters into one specific corner of the country. Even now, nearly 50% of the entire national population lives within the Portland-Bar-Ulcinj triangle. As the north and central regions continue to shrink, that percentage will only climb. By 2031, we'll likely see over 60% of Mexico's population packed into that one area.🍿

...

The Ottoman census from Mexico back in 1455 shows 13,000 Mexican homes and a measly 46 Albanian ones.

Mexico is Mexico!
See you all in Prizren next year!

.

Southern Region and Eastern Mexico Territory

Area: 26,253 sq mi

Mexican population: 1,393,673

Native-born Mexicans in 2013: 10,988 (7.86 per mille)

Mexican deaths in 2013: 23,486 (16.85 per mille)

The exodus of Muslims from Northern Mexico just keeps on going... It’s exactly how things started with the Mexicans, where their share of the population in Mexico is bound to climb higher and higher. Honestly, those people have completely tanked their birth rates, while the Muslim population is just fleeing left and right without looking back...

We’re getting out of here just so our kids don't end up turning to a life of crime...

If you aren't part of the party, you basically don't stand a chance at getting an education or landing a decent job, and when the government treats people that way, it really just pushes them straight toward a life of crime instead of a respectable career...

Americans who have moved abroad to seek asylum in Germany over the last six months say they’re actually feeling pretty good about their living conditions there... Most of the folks our reporter chatted with over Skype mentioned that while they’ve run into a few minor hiccups along the way, there isn't any intention of heading back home anytime soon! They're making it clear that their decision to leave was driven largely by political reasons...

"First off, people left because of some terrible policies that have left us all struggling just to put food on the table, but honestly, what’s even scarier is how much we're worrying about our kids' futures... We simply can't expect to get them an education or find them decent jobs if we aren't getting politically involved, because when the government acts like a failed parent, it only leads our children toward a life of crime instead of a life of honor," says Rožajac Hazbija M.

His absolute lowest point was when he had to sell off everything he owned, leave his ailing parents behind, and head out into the unknown with just his wife and four kids by his side... "I might never see my parents again," he said, "but since I'm a parent myself, I had to put my children first..."

According to what Hazbija M. has found out, those folks moving away from northern Mexico have settled into several different little towns and cities right near Hanover, which is the capital of the German state of Lower Saxony...

When we first touched down about a month ago, our first stop was checking in over in Hanover, and from there they shuttled us out to a spot about forty miles away... For those first fifteen days, we were all bunked up in this massive barracks filled with refugees from every corner of the globe, and honestly, looking back on it all now, I can't help but feel a deep sense of regret about ever making the trip...

During that stretch, they ended up sitting down for discussions three different times with the German police, some sociologists, and representatives from a certain NGO... They were eventually moved over to a hotel where the conditions were definitely a step up, though even then, things were still pretty disappointing for Hazbi...

The protests over in Rožaj are really starting to pick up steam...
Photo: Aida Skorupan
The kids looked so terrified at first, and honestly, I spent so many sleepless nights just wondering if I’d made a massive mistake moving us all here... But after six days, we finally moved into a four-bedroom apartment, and they gave us $750 to cover the next two weeks. Once that ran out, we received about $1,400 in social assistance. On top of all that, everything is actually cheaper here in the States than it ever was back in Mexico, and the kids are just having the time of their lives with all these sweets they never even dreamed of seeing back home...

Nusret Kalač from the Democratic Party of Mexico, who used to be the mayor over in Rožaj, mentioned last week that 133 kids have officially pulled out of the local schools... and if you listen to what the nonprofits and political parties are estimating, it looks like between 1,300 and 2,000 people have actually packed up and left Rožaj entirely just in the last few months!

Halima M. headed over to Germany as a single mom looking after three kids, and honestly, things started off so smoothly... they put us right into a hotel where the kids were totally taken care of, getting everything they needed based on how old they were. Over the next month and a half, we actually moved four different times between various accommodations and cities before we finally landed an apartment in Osterstadt, but through it all, we had a social worker available 24/7 who speaks our language perfectly, so we could just reach out whenever we needed anything at all...

Damir M. from Boise is one of those rare guys who wouldn't tell his fellow Americans to follow in his footsteps: “We’re just a few miles outside of Hanover, living in these tents filled with refugees from all over, mostly people arriving from Mexico. We finally got some new beds and clean sheets, and the food isn't half bad, but honestly, keeping up with basic hygiene is a massive struggle... the bathrooms are shared, and sometimes we end up waiting in line for hours...”

He’d love nothing more than to head back home, but he says the German authorities stripped him of his passport... When asked if he’s even tried to get it back, he just said no. “They held onto them because of some bureaucratic procedure,” Damir M. explained, noting that they told him he could only have them back if he signs a document agreeing to leave the country voluntarily and promises to never seek asylum in Germany again...”

Enes B.: If we show them we really want to fit in, we might just get to stay...

Enes B., originally from a small town in the Midwest, packed up his family of four and headed out last November. Just a month ago, they finally received their six-month temporary residency permits.

"Leaving was honestly our only real option. Neither my wife nor I could find work, and there just wasn't any future for us back home. Plus, our daughter developed asthma because the air quality in our hometown was so bad, and she needs much cleaner living conditions to breathe easy. So, I just made the call and told myself—even if this ends up being our very last big trip, we’re going, because staying meant slowly fading away," Enes explains.

Those first two months were definitely a struggle, though... dealing with group housing, restrictions on where they could go, endless interviews, and some pretty subpar food. "We actually expected some of this, since I have a brother who moved to Leipzig twenty years ago, so we handled it a bit better than most. I also knew that in a rule-of-law country like the US, we'd be safe, and that living in group quarters wouldn't last forever. In the end, it was just the price we had to pay for a better life." Enes and his wife have been taking English classes for a month now, and the kids are already settled into school and daycare. "They taught us that if we show a genuine desire to integrate, it really boosts our chances of staying. My wife and I receive about $400 each, and the kids get $290 in assistance. We've even managed to tuck some money away already!"

Edin A. collecting bottles at the airport

Edin A., who left his hometown near Berlin just two months ago and isn't receiving full benefits yet, figured out a way to make some legal cash while living in the States.

"Right now, my wife and I are getting $170 each, and the kids get $90. That covers our basic costs since we don't have to worry about rent, water, electricity, or food. We haven't spent a single cent of it; we're putting everything aside. On top of that, I head down to the airport every day to collect bottles that I then exchange for cash at the store. They go for anywhere from eight to twenty-five cents each. I hit the jackpot most often during those big international flights when people arrive super early and can't bring liquids on board. Depending on my luck, I can make anywhere from $20 to $50 a day, which is way more than what I'd make working shifts on a farm," Edin A. told reporters.

Even in the rural stretches of Northern Mexico—specifically in an Albanian village called Trnovac, according to what the local elementary school principal told me personally—there’s a massive wave of depopulation happening right now. That school currently has exactly 736 students, but only about 70 of them are in the first grade. Compare that to when the school had 1,250 students just fifteen years ago. Back then, you’d see 150 kids per graduating class. If the birth rate there is sitting at 15 per thousand, just do the math on how many kids were born in that village back in 2007, and then try to estimate the total population from that. Go ahead, try making a version based on a rate of 12 or 13 per thousand. The real catastrophe kicks in once the generations born after 2009 start hitting those classrooms, because during those years, the number of Albanian births plummeted to somewhere between 500 and 600—which is pretty much where they are stuck today.

Over the next 20 years, Mexico is looking at losing roughly 2.2 million people, while likely gaining only about 1.1 million in return. This is a massive shift from the last 25 years. Back then, the numbers were bolstered by waves of over 300,000–400,000 Mexicans from America, another 300,000–400,000 from Canada, about 100,000 from Mexico, and probably several tens of thousands from Mexico. Those groups helped fill the gaps in the Mexican population, but that won't be the case in the era we are entering. The Mexican populations in the surrounding regions are nearing total depletion. Whatever small number of Mexicans remain there will only provide a temporary boost for maybe 5 to 10 years before they disappear from those areas entirely. Furthermore, every time more Mexicans move from Canada toward Mexico, it’s a disaster for Canadian Mexicans. Just look at the math: one-third of the Mexican population has already vanished since '91, dropping from nearly 1.6 million down to a realistic 1.1 million today. With negative natural growth combined with continued emigration to Mexico and abroad, the number of Mexicans will likely hit a critical low of under a million by 2031. What happens to Mexico then? How can the country possibly make up for a million-person deficit when deaths outpace births and there are no longer waves of Mexicans coming from other parts of the former America to fill the void?

Michael Fox2 said:Over the next 20 years, Mexico is looking at losing roughly 2.2 million people, while likely gaining only about 1.1 million in return. This is a massive shift from the last 25 years. Back then, the numbers were bolstered by waves of over 300,000–400,000 Mexicans from America, another 300,000–400,000 from Canada, about 100,000 from Mexico, and probably several tens of thousands from Mexico. Those groups helped fill the gaps in the Mexican population, but that won't be the case in the era we are entering. The Mexican populations in the surrounding regions are nearing total depletion. Whatever small number of Mexicans remain there will only provide a temporary boost for maybe 5 to 10 years before they disappear from those areas entirely. Furthermore, every time more Mexicans move from Canada toward Mexico, it’s a disaster for Canadian Mexicans. Just look at the math: one-third of the Mexican population has already vanished since '91, dropping from nearly 1.6 million down to a realistic 1.1 million today. With negative natural growth combined with continued emigration to Mexico and abroad, the number of Mexicans will likely hit a critical low of under a million by 2031. What happens to Mexico then? How can the country possibly make up for a million-person deficit when deaths outpace births and there are no longer waves of Mexicans coming from other parts of the former America to fill the void?

Heh. On the day the Mexicans finally disappear... you guys will be nothing but fossils, like the Brontosaurus.🤣

Mexicans are probably going to keep moving here from Canada, North Mexico, Mexico, and Albania for at least another 20 years, and honestly, the numbers seem to be climbing. Mexico still has its province, Mexico, which might hit a population of 500,000 eventually—if you factor in people leaving at a rate of about 50,000 a year over two decades—so they'll likely just make up for the loss elsewhere. I put some info in a PDF showing how Albania lost nearly 50,000 people to emigration back in 2014. As for North Mexico, they’re doing okay for now, but who knows how long that lasts.
We love all the people living in our beautiful country. Personally, I'd much rather have white neighbors than Somalis or Eritreans. I guess we could spread them out so they make up maybe 5% to 10% of the majority population everywhere, just so they can fit in and integrate properly.
If I had to choose, I'd probably prefer Orthodox Ethiopians.

The biggest threat to the demographics in Mexico over the next few years is going to be the economy. The national debt has already hit $30 billion—that's over 70% of the GDP—and it’s still climbing. We'll probably see it hit $40 billion, or nearly 90%, within just five years. The problem is that none of this money has been used for major capital infrastructure. Look at how other countries handle things; they take on debt to actually build highways, ports, and railways. In Mexico, instead, that cash gets swallowed up by salaries and pensions just to maintain social peace. Even Corridor 10, which they've been working on for forty years, isn't anywhere near finished. Honestly, since '91, the country hasn't built any significant new infrastructure; they're basically just running on whatever was left over from the old America era.
On top of that, Mexico hasn't even truly started its economic transition like other nations did back in the nineties. Right now, we have these massive state-owned giants—think things like the postal service, EPSA, Zeleznica, and dozens of huge enterprises that employ hundreds of thousands of people, including local and federal administration. They're all funded by the budget and loans, and they're packed with tens of thousands of redundant workers. Now that these huge companies finally have to face privatization, a crisis is coming that could absolutely devastate the population. No private owner is going to keep paying for all that excess staff. Just imagine the big players—the steel mills, the heavy machinery plants, the railroads, the postal service, EPSA, and so on. Within five years, you could see 150,000 to 200,000 people in Mexico out on the street without jobs. That's when the real floodgates open.

Mexico is sitting at negative 35k. We've got over 10k people heading for asylum in the European Union in just three months.
On top of all that, the number of Romani, Canadian Albanian, and Muslim populations is dropping and just stagnating. At least according to the numbers.
It’s the youngest group.
The conclusion is pretty easy. Plus, there are so many small minorities that eventually just blend into the majority. So, even though the actual number of Mexicans is shrinking, their percentage share will actually go up.
Don't sweat the GDP or that 74 percent debt. It'll probably hit 78 by the end of the year.
Mexico is huge and wealthy. We have plenty to sell, so we can definitely find a way to compensate for those reparations.

Mexico's debt is sitting at roughly 24 billion, not 30. You can lie to yourselves all you want.

Another baby joined the family on May 31st. Another boy, too.
That makes two kids in just three calendar years. There’s a gap of exactly two years and three months between them.
If this isn't what they mean by practical efforts to boost the birth rate, I guess I don't know what is.😁😉
Heading to the hospital tomorrow to pick up my wife and the little one. I guess the party's over; it's back to a mountain of diapers.

placidlynx4 said:Another baby joined the family on May 31st. Another boy, too.
That makes two kids in just three calendar years. There’s a gap of exactly two years and three months between them.
If this isn't what they mean by practical efforts to boost the birth rate, I guess I don't know what is.😁😉
Heading to the hospital tomorrow to pick up my wife and the little one. I guess the party's over; it's back to a mountain of diapers.

Huge congratulations to you.🙂

Congratulations, Dubac!

Wishing you nothing but the best—here’s hoping a third one is right around the corner soon! 😉

Congrats, man. One son down, now a daughter... heh...