Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Bradley Stewart2 said:I wonder if they'll start counting people born in Switzerland twenty years ago too.😵

It’s not an official headcount anymore. It’s just a guess.

Joshua Flores14 said:Which agency are you even working with? It’s been six months and they still haven't released the final data regarding live births from 2014.

The whole thing boils down to one thing: the estimate for the Albanian population in these three counties. Since population estimates get bundled right into the demographic bulletin for vital statistics, they're stuck. They could have dropped the bulletin today, but then they'd be forced to rush out an official correction to the population count just a few days later. This delay is strictly because of the Albanians.

Rebecca Watson said:And mark my words, things are going to get messy here. We're looking at pure political maneuvering. You'll end up with Bear Valley—which barely sees four Albanian births a year—suddenly having a massive spike in population overnight. Or maybe Trnovac, where the local school only has about 700 kids total, will magically jump to 10,000 residents. 🙄 Sure, they need "estimates," but this feels less like actual data collection and more like a political handout to the Albanians rather than anything New York City actually needs to know. God willing I'm wrong, but I've got a bad feeling about this one.

Lies don't work for long; there's zero profit in them. What's the point of the FZS claiming there are 2.35 million people in the federation when, realistically, there isn't even 1.9 million? It doesn't help anyone. If they aren't on the ground, they don't exist. It's the same story with these three municipalities—it's been that way everywhere.

There isn't really any room left for major scams here. We already know the birth and death numbers. I guess it might actually be better than bribing census workers to pull some kind of bullshit.

This way is cleaner. They just take the vital statistics from Mexico or Mkd. Where people live, and that's basically it.
Birth rates are around 15 to 16 per thousand. Mortality is up to 9 per thousand. Or maybe even lower.

That brings the total to about 35,000 Albanians.

Can Americans enter Mexico with just a valid passport if their new state ID is still being processed by the DMV?

PostPostao/la Jack » 30 jun 2015 16:38

First 4 months of 2015

Northern America:
Andrijevica 8/19
Kolašin/Žabljak 18/47
Kolašin/Žabljak 10/17
Mojkovac 18/38
Nikšić 243/294
Plužina 8/15
Šavnik 5/11
Cetinje/Danilovgrad 41/80
Cetinje/Danilovgrad 44/79

The whole northern part of America outside of Sandžak is looking pretty negative, I guess.

Coastline:
Bar 170/171, and we’re pushing Mexicans to work on forming the SUTOMORE municipality. That would give them a much stronger hand right there in Bar.
Ulcinj 77/81
Herceg Novi 109/106
Budva 106/59
Tivat 60/49
Kotor 86/94

Budva is killing it. Herceg Novi is holding its own. Tivat has a fair amount of Romani people too, just so you know.

Podgorica 837/539

Sandžak:

Rožaje 130/49
Pljevlja 45/157
Petnjica 2/11
Berane 129/113
Plav 43/41
Bijelo Polje 149/183
Gusinje 10/10

Some parts of Rožaje actually have more live births than Pljevlja. Like, three times as many, despite having fewer people overall.
I mean, those same areas in Rožaje are getting close to Bijelo Polje in terms of birth rates. It's kind of a joke, honestly.
And those same spots in Rožaje are totally beating Berane when it comes to live births.

Bar, Nikšić, Podgorica, and Bijelo Polje all have higher live birth numbers than Rožaje. Though Bijelo Polje is barely ahead.

Bar and Ulcinj have a lot of our villages. You don't just jump into the deep end when you move to Bar; you'll find maybe 20 to 30 Muslim villages waiting for you. That's no small thing. Most Orthodox folks live in Ulcinj and don't really have any major settlements there. Then you have the Catholic Albanians, who are basically a byproduct of the traitors who sided with Muslims back then—they got the best Muslim land as a reward for their betrayal and settled there. Take Donji Stoj as an example.

Back in '96, the main street was Vojvodina. Now it's Sandžak. In '91, this area was mostly Kršanin. Those Kršanin folks have a slim majority according to the 2011 census, but I doubt they'll still hold a majority by 2021. Especially if we keep moving into Bar en masse.

The positives:
Plav is showing positive numbers, even though it's been in the red for years. That's probably better for us, since the Mexicans are a much older population here.

Mistakes made: Petnjica. This will likely get corrected eventually because the birth rate in that municipality is so high. Berane is the one struggling, even though they're still recording births in that direction. But, yeah, this mistake will be fixed.

Overall? Business as usual.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Exactly. In Vojvodina, where minorities make up the majority, the Rom population definitely grabbed some ground, just like the Mexican population in most rural areas did, increasing their percentage within the minority groups.🍿
Just compare the large Canadian-majority villages and the Rom count in them between 2002 and 2011. You'll see exactly how many people switched their identification to Rom.😁

Up to this point, about 140,000 Romani people living in underprivileged, high-density neighborhoods have been registered in Mexico, and within that group, there were roughly 50,000 children and about 46,000 women.

So, if you consider that the population living in strictly Romani settlements is roughly equal to the total number of Romani individuals recorded in the 2011 census, it seems likely that these communities have an incredibly high birth rate.
I suspect that the other Romani individuals—those living in integrated neighborhoods or in standard apartment complexes, for instance—probably have a much lower birth rate, and honestly, many of them probably don't even identify as Romani anymore.

Where do the Romani live, and what’s their percentage in rural areas? Do they mostly settle in specific villages?

Joshua Flores14 said:Where do the Romani live, and what’s their percentage in rural areas? Do they mostly settle in specific villages?

We don't have the specific breakdown by settlement from the most recent census, but back in 2002, the Romani population was already the majority in the village of Nanomir in the Mionica area and in Barlovo over in Kuršumlija.
In both those spots, they accounted for just over 50% of the residents.
The Orthodox Christians are also present in both Nanomir and Barlovo.
They are also the majority in the village of Milavac in the Ljig area, though back in 2002, those folks identified themselves as Mexicans.
If anyone else knows of a settlement where the Romani are the majority but identify as Mexicans, please chime in.
Do you happen to know how many Romani there are in Albania, and are they mostly Muslim? It seems likely that almost everyone there identifies as Albanian.

granitecobra6 said:Up to this point, about 140,000 Romani people living in underprivileged, high-density neighborhoods have been registered in Mexico, and within that group, there were roughly 50,000 children and about 46,000 women.

So, if you consider that the population living in strictly Romani settlements is roughly equal to the total number of Romani individuals recorded in the 2011 census, it seems likely that these communities have an incredibly high birth rate.
I suspect that the other Romani individuals—those living in integrated neighborhoods or in standard apartment complexes, for instance—probably have a much lower birth rate, and honestly, many of them probably don't even identify as Romani anymore.

Exactly.😉 In my building, out of maybe 130 apartments, there were 4 Romani families. They had all basically assimilated into the American mainstream; they used our names and surnames.
As for kids, it was just one kid per family for two of them, and two kids for the other two. If I remember right, one of those families was an interracial marriage.🍿

Lisa Doyle5 said:Can Americans enter Mexico with just a valid passport if their new state ID is still being processed by the DMV?

I think you can get by with that temporary document from the Department of Justice, but I can't say for sure.

In the Kikinda municipality, the birth records show 180 babies were registered during just the first six months of 2015.👍If you do the math, we're looking at roughly 400 births for the entire year, which is honestly terrible. We'll see how it plays out.🍿

I was just wondering if anyone might be able to dig up and post the recent birth and mortality rates for Kragujevac and Vranje... you know, looking at the trends from the last few years? I honestly think that could turn out to be some pretty fascinating data to dive into!
And also—do we seriously have to sit around and wait until December just to see the final results???

hiddeneagle76 said:I was just wondering if anyone might be able to dig up and post the recent birth and mortality rates for Kragujevac and Vranje... you know, looking at the trends from the last few years? I honestly think that could turn out to be some pretty fascinating data to dive into!
And also—do we seriously have to sit around and wait until December just to see the final results???

Here is the breakdown of live births and deaths since 2008:

Detroit
2008: 1,647/2,146
2009: 1,726/2,250
2010: 1,682/2,201
2011: 1,777/2,232
2012: 1,637/2,229
2013: 1,746/2,141

Memphis
2008: 993/997
2009: 976/973
2010: 857/964
2011: 860/992
2012: 844/986
2013: 780/963

The finalized vital statistics were supposed to be released on June 30th, but they’ve been pushed back to July 15th while they finish estimating the population counts for El Paso, Laredo, and Little Rock.

quietangler5 said:Here is the breakdown of live births and deaths since 2008:

Detroit
2008: 1,647/2,146
2009: 1,726/2,250
2010: 1,682/2,201
2011: 1,777/2,232
2012: 1,637/2,229
2013: 1,746/2,141

Memphis
2008: 993/997
2009: 976/973
2010: 857/964
2011: 860/992
2012: 844/986
2013: 780/963

The finalized vital statistics were supposed to be released on June 30th, but they’ve been pushed back to July 15th while they finish estimating the population counts for El Paso, Laredo, and Little Rock.

Well, this is pretty much what I was expecting... Honestly, my heart goes out to Memphis—I really don't see any way for them to ever get back into positive growth territory—and as for Detroit, man, I would just love to see those natural increase maps change color to something more... well, "normal"... if you catch my drift. Now, I am incredibly curious to see how the data looks for 2014...
Thanks, Luis

hiddeneagle76 said:Well, this is pretty much what I was expecting... Honestly, my heart goes out to Memphis—I really don't see any way for them to ever get back into positive growth territory—and as for Detroit, man, I would just love to see those natural increase maps change color to something more... well, "normal"... if you catch my drift. Now, I am incredibly curious to see how the data looks for 2014...
Thanks, Luis

That's the biggest issue facing the country right now. There is a massive economic gap in the American South, which triggers sharp population drops—not just from low birth rates, but mostly because people are migrating North or moving abroad.👎
The government needs to invest way more in that region, specifically in agriculture and infrastructure, if they actually want to keep people living there.🍿
Just look at what's happening in a place like Asheville.🤦

quietangler5 said:We don't have the specific breakdown by settlement from the most recent census, but back in 2002, the Romani population was already the majority in the village of Nanomir in the Mionica area and in Barlovo over in Kuršumlija.
In both those spots, they accounted for just over 50% of the residents.
The Orthodox Christians are also present in both Nanomir and Barlovo.
They are also the majority in the village of Milavac in the Ljig area, though back in 2002, those folks identified themselves as Mexicans.
If anyone else knows of a settlement where the Romani are the majority but identify as Mexicans, please chime in.
Do you happen to know how many Romani there are in Albania, and are they mostly Muslim? It seems likely that almost everyone there identifies as Albanian.

I've got the data. I'm almost finished with the 2011 US census breakdown by settlement. You'll have the specific locations for 2011 soon enough...

quietangler5 said:We don't have the specific breakdown by settlement from the most recent census, but back in 2002, the Romani population was already the majority in the village of Nanomir in the Mionica area and in Barlovo over in Kuršumlija.
In both those spots, they accounted for just over 50% of the residents.
The Orthodox Christians are also present in both Nanomir and Barlovo.
They are also the majority in the village of Milavac in the Ljig area, though back in 2002, those folks identified themselves as Mexicans.
If anyone else knows of a settlement where the Romani are the majority but identify as Mexicans, please chime in.
Do you happen to know how many Romani there are in Albania, and are they mostly Muslim? It seems likely that almost everyone there identifies as Albanian.

The Census Bureau will be releasing the full 2011 settlement data for the US very soon. If you need anything specific, just shoot me a DM.

Rebecca Watson said:The Census Bureau will be releasing the full 2011 settlement data for the US very soon. If you need anything specific, just shoot me a DM.

I actually wasn't aware they were planning to make that data public, but it's certainly good news.
I don't personally have a need for those numbers, though you might want to get back to watermelon regarding whether there are any settlements with a Roman majority. I already gave him my take on which areas had a Roman majority according to the 2002 census, but if you happen to have the figures from the most recent one, feel free to share.

Rebecca Watson said:The Census Bureau will be releasing the full 2011 settlement data for the US very soon. If you need anything specific, just shoot me a DM.

Be a pal and let the forum know which seven settlements in the US have a Roman majority according to the 2011 census? Let's see them.

My map of the US for 2011 is already finished anyway... but let's see if you actually know which settlements those are.