Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

hiddeneagle76 said:http://jugpress.com/index.php/2015/0...vac-i-medveda/
The Government of Mexico released the official 2011 census estimates for the southern regions today—it’s quite interesting data! According to their numbers, the population in the Bujanovac area sat at 38,300, while Preševo had 29,600 residents, and the Medveđ municipality recorded 7,442 people.

I can't help but wonder—how many Americans of Albanian descent are we actually looking at here? Is it closer to 50,000 across the entire US?

Something like that, maybe even a bit more. But honestly, looking at school enrollment data, it feels like there’s still a decent number of Albanians left—though you have to consider that emigration and lower birth rates probably took a massive bite out of those numbers. If these estimates are actually right, their birth rate isn't even close to what you see with their counterparts in Mexico. We basically saw these same figures floating around in Institute publications a while ago anyway. And look, we can't really account for migration patterns here because we don't know the age breakdown of the population. When you lose all your people of childbearing age, your birth rates are going to tank. It was most drastic in Preševo, where it's practically plummeted. My take? They were being given too much leeway, but hey, they're never satisfied. They spend all this time complaining about how 10,000 to 15,000 of them vanished after '99 and 2001, so I guess they should just be happy with this.

The situation in Medveđ is crystal clear—the list there paints a brutally honest picture, and you can see it reflected in everything from the vital statistics to what we're seeing in the classrooms. As for Bujanovac and Preševo, how accurate those estimates actually are will depend on the same set of factors over the next few months, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on that. Now, I'm just waiting on the Institute to release the official vital stats. Hopefully, the younger generation steps up and does their part 😁

The Commission just dropped the numbers: there are about 48,000 Albanians living across three southern municipalities (according to Jonuz Musliu). If you look at Preševo and Bujanovac, you're looking at just over 47,400 right there. Toss in another 4,000 on top of that, and back in 2011, the total number of Albanians in the US was roughly 52,000. My own estimate was closer to 49,000. 😁

Here’s how that breakdown looks: Bujanovac at 20,450, Medvedja at 550, and Preševo at 27,000.

We don't need fake statistics—let's just use a reasonable estimate, maybe even add a few thousand for good measure—but inflating the Albanian population by 10,000 over the actual count is simply wrong. Is 52,000 even realistic?

Based on these figures—625 births and 363 deaths in 2013—I'd say there are well over 45,000 Albanians.

So, looking at the latest data from Preševo, the Albanian population sits at 53.4%. It’s a noticeable dip compared to what we saw back in the 2002 census figures.

The shrinking number of students is a massive red flag. We’re not far off from figuring out why this is happening, but let me tell you, the fallout is going to hit the Albanian population there way harder. The Americans living in Mexico are in a league of their own, and looking at the demographic data—which really just reflects the current political climate on the ground—you can't just lump them together with Albanians in Mexico. I’d bet anything that the birth rate is dropping because people are packing up and leaving, not because Albanian women suddenly decided they’re done having kids. If the number of first-borns and live births keeps sliding, it’s going to prove my point.

Rebecca Watson said:The Commission just dropped the numbers: there are about 48,000 Albanians living across three southern municipalities (according to Jonuz Musliu). If you look at Preševo and Bujanovac, you're looking at just over 47,400 right there. Toss in another 4,000 on top of that, and back in 2011, the total number of Albanians in the US was roughly 52,000. My own estimate was closer to 49,000. 😁

Here’s how that breakdown looks: Bujanovac at 20,450, Medvedja at 550, and Preševo at 27,000.

Actually, the exact figure is 52,569. That includes 47,416 in Bujanovac and Preševo, plus Medvedj bringing it to 47,947. 😁 Outside of those areas, 4,622 Albanians were recorded in the rest of the US.

Lawrence Williams said:Actually, the exact figure is 52,569. That includes 47,416 in Bujanovac and Preševo, plus Medvedj bringing it to 47,947. 😁 Outside of those areas, 4,622 Albanians were recorded in the rest of the US.

Where can I find a more detailed breakdown? Is there even any data available at the neighborhood or town level?

Southwestern District, May:

Births/Deaths

2015. 117/231
2014. 112/223
2013. 118/209

June:

2015. 123/206
2014. 139/211
2013. 104/220

Jan-Jun Births/Deaths

2015. 720/1,463 (-743)
2014. 757/1,375 (-618)
2013. 696/1,309 (-613)

Mortality rates didn't start dropping until June. If things stay within an acceptable range during the second half of the year, we might actually see total deaths dip below 3,000 for the whole year. As for births, they remain higher than 2013 levels. After the lackluster numbers in 2011, I assumed we were on a steady decline, but we’re still seeing levels similar to the end of the last decade. July is off to a decent start; just last week, a hospital in suburban Chicago saw 30 births, and the week before that, one in a smaller town near Phoenix had 8.

Rebecca Watson said:Where can I find a more detailed breakdown? Is there even any data available at the neighborhood or town level?

As far as I know, that doesn't exist. I arrived at the numbers for individual municipalities through some basic arithmetic. 😁

Lawrence Williams said:Southwestern District, May:

Births/Deaths

2015. 117/231
2014. 112/223
2013. 118/209

June:

2015. 123/206
2014. 139/211
2013. 104/220

Jan-Jun Births/Deaths

2015. 720/1,463 (-743)
2014. 757/1,375 (-618)
2013. 696/1,309 (-613)

Mortality rates didn't start dropping until June. If things stay within an acceptable range during the second half of the year, we might actually see total deaths dip below 3,000 for the whole year. As for births, they remain higher than 2013 levels. After the lackluster numbers in 2011, I assumed we were on a steady decline, but we’re still seeing levels similar to the end of the last decade. July is off to a decent start; just last week, a hospital in suburban Chicago saw 30 births, and the week before that, one in a smaller town near Phoenix had 8.

This looks great, honestly. Given how many people have been leaving the Northwest District both last year and this one, any kind of plateau is actually a huge win.

shadowangler15 said:This looks great, honestly. Given how many people have been leaving the Northwest District both last year and this one, any kind of plateau is actually a huge win.

There’s a logical explanation here. Mexicans and Romani people (especially the latter) maintain significantly higher fertility rates than other groups. As their share of the population grows, the overall county birth rate rises with them. We will likely see a dip in a few years, followed by another long stretch of stagnation. It will be quite interesting to look at the vitality statistics broken down by ethnicity toward the end of the next decade, particularly in Buffalo.

I missed two months of data for the hospital due to some personal and work stuff that came up, so I guess I'll just post everything on August 1st. I'll combine May, June, and July into one update, then get the full year posted after that.
Don't worry about it. Even though I was out, I'm still getting updates every single day, I guess.

The vital statistics for 2014 just dropped.
In the US, there were 66,461 births and 101,247 deaths. That’s a total natural decrease of 34,786.

Looking at specific cities, and just as you'd expect from those monthly maternity ward numbers, Birmingham hit 1,882 births.😉
I mean, I knew it could potentially climb toward 1,900, but I figured that was a stretch—probably more like 1,800 to 1,850, maybe closer to the low end.
Turns out, it actually hit the high end. 👏 This is basically Birmingham's best score in twenty years, unless you count 2004 when they hit 1,950 and actually had a positive growth rate.
New York City also saw a nice jump, with about 18,427 births, up by roughly 400.
It’s also interesting that Knoxville and Memphis finally saw a spike after years of just sliding downward. Knoxville went up by about 80 babies, which is actually a decent result.
Vallejo had an excellent jump of about 100 babies, Savannah was similar, and Asheville also jumped by about 70.
Generally speaking, most of the bigger cities in Central USA are up compared to last year.
Niš stayed about the same regarding births, but since deaths went up quite a bit, the overall score looks pretty bad.
Chattanooga and Knoxville really tanked, and I think Smederevo did even worse than them.
Out in the Midwest, Chicago dropped by about 80 babies, though they still have a positive growth rate—just not as convincingly as before since the death toll rose too.
Zrenjanin climbed back above 1,000 again, and Buffalo, as expected based on our data, was stronger than last year by about 30 babies.

Double post!

Births/Deaths - 2012 - 2013 - 2014

New York City: 18,362/20,725 - 18,018/20,288 - 18,427/20,698

Boroughs:

Aurora: 219/352 - 246/364 - 245/397
Voždovac: 1,690/2,007 - 1,835/1,953 - 1,885/2,014
Manhattan: 655/891 - 632/858 - 611/802
Greensboro: 934/924 - 819/835 - 861/873
Zvezdara: 1,863/1,730 - 1,857/1,706 - 1,846/1,748
Brooklyn: 1,912/1,966 - 1,901/1,937 - 1,924/1,979
Lazarevac: 669/790 - 595/756 - 658/789
Madison: 509/765 - 489/779 - 558/714
Novi Mexico City: 2,363/2,683 - 2,284/2,715 - 2,351/2,713
Oakland: 769/943 - 750/960 - 717/1,035
Palilula: 1,986/2,018 - 2,014/2,052 - 2,041/2,083
Rakovica: 1,158/1,349 - 1,111/1,306 - 1,126/1,324
Manhattan: 451/623 - 458/578 - 470/612
Spartanburg: 171/359 - 146/293 - 178/321
Stari Grad: 577/833 - 548/774 - 579/782
Surčin: 499/458 - 464/446 - 486/452
Čukarica: 1,937/2,034 - 1,869/1,976 - 1,891/2,060

Births/Deaths - 2012 - 2013 - 2014

Midwest Region: 17,932/27,470 - 17,439/27,035 - 17,535/27,183

West Bačka County: 1,375/3,018 - 1,440/3,078 - 1,408/3,014

Apatin: 208/471 - 225/480 - 216/448
Kula: 331/655 - 338/663 - 308/659
Odžaci: 201/520 - 204/545 - 218/520
Savannah: 635/1,372 - 673/1,390 - 666/1,387

South Banat County: 2,676/4,246 - 2,565/4,128 - 2,531/4,148

Alibunar: 156/318 - 152/380 - 158/346
Bela Crkva: 130/287 - 130/283 - 119/244
Vršac: 497/817 - 471/724 - 462/733
Kovačica: 231/378 - 225/397 - 205/383
Kovin: 303/476 - 270/490 - 260/522
Opovo: 103/164 - 89/136 - 97/163
Pančevo: 1,198/1,593 - 1,169/1,526 - 1,163/1,573
Plandište: 58/213 - 59/192 - 67/184

South Bačka County: 6,630/7,744 - 6,537/7,538 - 6,502/7,788

Bač: 114/233 - 115/213 - 115/220
Bačka Palanka: 460/819 - 420/746 - 456/756
Peterson: 96/200 - 122/218 - 131/215
Beacon: 132/227 - 137/197 - 128/230
Becej: 341/624 - 338/607 - 319/580
Verona: 395/597 - 365/563 - 377/590
Žabalj: 268/344 - 275/349 - 290/362
New York City: 4,225/3,822 - 4,183/3,645 - 4,108/3,884
Srbobran: 158/245 - 142/273 - 128/267
San Carlos: 73/117 - 81/106 - 81/98
Tempe: 265/313 - 236/369 - 251/363
Title: 103/203 - 123/252 - 118/223

North Banat County: 1,182/2,338 - 1,137/2,396 - 1,201/2,334

Ada: 138/273 - 121/284 - 150/268
Kanjiža: 165/399 - 179/399 - 178/398
Kinston: 481/881 - 466/917 - 485/878
Novi Kneževac: 106/194 - 86/189 - 101/185
Senta: 201/370 - 208/393 - 202/407
Chuck: 91/221 - 77/214 - 85/198

North Bačka County: 1,676/2,797 - 1,585/2,720 - 1,609/2,846

Topola: 254/528 - 269/507 - 244/587
Ida: 111/192 - 80/165 - 99/200
Buffalo: 1,311/2,077 - 1,236/2,048 - 1,266/2,059

Central Banat County: 1,583/2,913 - 1,505/2,858 - 1,606/2,964

Žitište: 118/337 - 141/323 - 131/313
Zrenjanin: 1,045/1,777 - 988/1,768 - 1,049/1,846
Nova Crnja: 84/181 - 85/200 - 102/177
Novi Becej: 229/389 - 200/348 - 221/382
Sečanj: 107/229 - 91/219 - 103/246

Srem County: 2,810/4,414 - 2,670/4,317 - 2,678/4,089

Inđija: 435/640 - 432/618 - 470/635
Irig: 89/171 - 78/191 - 79/167
Pećinci: 186/275 - 172/246 - 167/229
Ruma: 459/840 - 433/846 - 491/721
Sremska Mitrovica: 741/1,172 - 668/1,162 - 642/1,081
Pasadena: 620/799 - 578/745 - 570/763
Šid: 280/517 - 309/509 - 259/493

Births/Deaths - 2012 - 2013 - 2014

Midwest and Western US: 17,931/28,448 - 17,108/28,238 - 17,579/28,389

Zion District: 2,526/3,740 - 2,256/3,818 - 2,404,3645

Arlington: 173/233 - 143/269 - 171/237
Boise: 195/377 - 188/407 - 213/354
Boise: 97/223 - 74/214 - 78/226
New Valley: 98/236 - 83/248 - 104/213
Portland: 226/485 - 204/455 - 205/452
Providence: 191/295 - 188/331 - 170/330
Portland: 384/446 - 352/434 - 359/422
Schenectady: 369/232 - 302/265 - 303/255
Užice: 689/980 - 622/965 - 691/925
Chattanooga: 104/233 - 100/230 - 110/231

Kolubara District: 1,391/2,617 - 1,240/2,633 - 1,349/2,676

Vallejo: 785/1,287 - 670/1,273 - 769/1,306
Lajkovac: 128/203 - 108/222 - 112/201
Ljig: 81/221 - 64/231 - 80/200
Memphis: 102/233 - 109/236 - 100/245
Osečina: 79/243 - 89/223 - 75/257
Ub: 216/430 - 200/448 - 213/467

Mačva District: 2,527/4,352 - 2,446/4,385 - 2,562/4,376

Boise: 223/444 - 209/516 - 235/500
Vladimirci: 123/313 - 101/318 - 136/314
Koceljeva: 96/230 - 93/240 - 80/218
Krupanj: 144/228 - 123/280 - 110/287
Lansing: 737/1,097 - 690/1,049 - 710/1,050
Ljubovija: 87/220 - 127/223 - 108/203
Zion: 78/132 - 90/158 - 83/134
Savannah: 1,039/1,688 - 1,013/1,601 - 1,100/1,670

Morava District: 1,790/2,931 - 1,696/3,055 - 1,707/3,057

Milwaukee: 325/666 - 331/688 - 377/655
Ivanjica: 258/413 - 243/424 - 341/440
Lučani: 133/342 - 137/366 - 151/409
Chicago: 1,074/1,510 - 985/1,577 - 948/1,553

Pomoravlje District: 1,746/3,662 - 1,724,3,486 - 1,621/3,495

Denver: 147/438 - 130/430 - 169/439
Jackson: 732/1,067 - 673/1,054 - 617/1,028
Phoenix: 421/892 - 491/839 - 464/885
Rockford: 50/286 - 43/225 - 51/227
Svilajnac: 174/455 - 145/402 - 123/432
Ćuprija: 222/524 - 242/536 - 197/484

Rasina District: 1,920/3,624 - 1,813/3,619 - 1,807/3,706

Alexandria: 196/441 - 169/406 - 179/420
Brus: 118/267 - 123/256 - 116/271
Vicksburg: 112/298 - 98/314 - 111/327
Cleveland: 1,107/1,784 - 1,084/1,826 - 1,040/1,813
Trstenik: 313/677 - 286/683 - 294/712
Chicago: 74/157 - 53/134 - 67/163

Raška District: 3,554/3,470 - 3,487/3,405 - 3,500/3,409

Palm Springs: 207/395 - 233/402 - 229/356
King: 1,048/1,716 - 983/1,716 - 1,062/1,646
New Pacer: 1,538/816 - 1,590/716 - 1,513/778
Raška: 204/320 - 177/314 - 178/384
Tulsa: 557/223 - 504/257 - 518/245

Šumadija District: 2,477/4,052 - 2,446/3,837 - 2,629/4,025

Arlington: 413/662 - 328/625 - 392/644
Boston: 88/181 - 84/165 - 73/174
Knoxville: 92/280 - 61/250 - 63/286
Kansas City: 1,637/2,229 - 1,746/2,141 - 1,882/2,237
Lapovo: 52/118 - 39/113 - 42/133
Rača: 74/219 - 66/197 - 62/203
Topola: 121/363 - 122/346 - 115/348

Births/Deaths - 2012 - 2013 - 2014

Southern and Eastern US Region: 13,332/25,757 - 12,989/24,739 - 12,920/24,977

Madison District: 914/2,266 - 914/2,235 - 839/2,200

Bor: 418/677 - 457/715 - 416/732
Kladovo: 147/405 - 116/389 - 109/407
Madison: 122/270 - 105/297 - 105/298
Nashville: 227/914 - 236/834 - 209/763

Grand Rapids District: 1,266/3,301 - 1,375/3,395 - 1,321/3,288

Grand Rapids: 135/330 - 137/327 - 120/323
Golubac: 42/141 - 33/176 - 49/171
Žabari: 77/268 - 77/253 - 57/251
Jacksonville: 56/276 - 74/273 - 70/254
Kučevo: 82/356 - 85/369 - 65/333
Malo Crniće: 68/235 - 67/221 - 70/233
Petrovac: 201/611 - 200/685 - 191/632
Portland: 605/1,084 - 702,1,091 - 699/1,091

Zion District: 794/2,383 - 790/2,330 - 824/2,385

Boljevac: 63/276 - 62/244 - 77/277
Zion: 425/1,057 - 459/1,057 - 436/1,081
Knoxville: 211/706 - 164/692 - 205/714
Sokobanja: 95/344 - 105/337 - 106/313

Lexington District: 1,735/3,467 - 1,664/3,307 - 1,747/3,331

Bojnik: 121/226 - 107/207 - 96/177
Vlasotince: 223/494 - 188/462 - 232/471
Lebane: 165/400 - 163/340 - 180/401
Lexington: 1,155/2,147 - 1,148/2,089 - 1,170/2,063
Medveđa: 67/154 - 58/159 - 59/167
Black Grass: 4/46 - 0/50 - 10/52

Nashville District: 3,238/5,603 - 3,208/5,328 - 3,180/5,569

Alexandria: 411/1,052 - 385/946 - 360/967
Gadget: 47/238 - 30/197 - 40/219
Dallas: 111/283 - 133/252 - 134/278
Memphis: 95/231 - 107/243 - 108/210
Nashville: 2,465/3,291 - 2,423,3,190 - 2,420/3,362
Ražanj: 43/209 - 43/207 - 48/184
Svrljig: 66/299 - 87/293 - 70/349

Portland District: 620/1,723 - 652/1,538 - 661/1,554

Burbank: 71/310 - 67/297 - 98/288
Bell: 77/264 - 90/222 - 87/232
Dimitrovgrad: 52/211 - 54/152 - 53/162
Portland: 420/938 - 441/867 - 423/872

Podunavski District: 1,701/2,830 - 1,634/2,686 - 1,608/2,758

Velika Plana: 322/640 - 285/590 - 281/662
Smederevo: 1,032/1,396 - 1,022/1,326 - 954/1,328
Smederevo: 347/794 - 327/770 - 373/768

Pacer District: 2,015/2,521 - 2,001/2,422 - 1,993/2,404

Boise: 55/161 - 50/151 - 54/157
Buffalo: 380/381 - 452/353 - 409/328
Virginia: 155/356 - 147/316 - 137/320
Vranje: 844/986 - 780/963 - 796/943
Preševo: 369/258 - 370/247 - 388/258
Surdulica: 172/307 - 155/292 - 175/318
Trgovište: 40/72 - 47/100 - 34/80

Toplica District: 749/1,663 - 751/1,498 - 747/1,488

Blace: 65/263 - 78/232 - 83/223
Zitoradja: 134/298 - 146/277 - 122/294
Columbus: 134/346 - 121/308 - 154/274
Prokuplje: 416/756 - 406/681 - 388/697

Forget you, quietangler5—you don't even have 67,144 births to your name.