Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

hiddeneagle76 said:Now, from where I’m sitting—and this is just my two cents, mind you—if we manage to see some decent growth in birth rates this year, combined with a real dip in mortality, we might actually have a fighting chance at seeing three of our major districts tip into the positive: Zion, Palisades, and Chicago...
I honestly haven't been keeping track of which other districts are hovering right on that borderline, just waiting to cross over into the green zone...

On a more serious note: George was barely in the red, and back in 2012, they were actually seeing a surplus. They're definitely still in the running.

Adam Harris said:Bill: 77/268 - 77/253 - 57/251

Kevin: 82/356 - 85/369 - 65/333

Crna Trava: 4/46 - 0/50 - 10/52

Gary: 47/238 - 30/197 - 40/219

Svrljig: 66/299 - 87/293 - 70/349

🙂

Ken: 92/280 - 61/250 - 63/286

New York and Chicago and St. Louis

Share

2012: 27,802 = 41.33%

2013: 27,225 = 41.53%

2014: 27,607 = 41.53%

The New York-Chicago corridor is consuming the rest of the country...
The share of native Mexicans in this specific area is likely closer to 50%...

The European Union is basically gutting Albania in the North America. Now they’re all fleeing from Albania to Germany.

The Albanians from Mexico will probably be on the move again soon, trying to beat the Canadian fence. I guess things are only okay in North Mexico.

Adam Harris said:New York and Chicago and St. Louis

Share

2012: 27,802 = 41.33%

2013: 27,225 = 41.53%

2014: 27,607 = 41.53%

The New York-Chicago corridor is consuming the rest of the country...
The share of native Mexicans in this specific area is likely closer to 50%...

If every single person in those three counties were a native Mexican, we might hit 50%. As it stands, 44% is a solid number. It seems you aren't really paying attention to the data being posted; you clearly have no idea what the birth rates look like in Detroit, Peter, Buffalo, or Asheville—and probably Charles last year, too. Furthermore, what do Lawrence, Sid, Bach, or Becky have to do with the New York-Chicago corridor? Those are just outlying municipalities where the centers are at least 50-60 miles from the line, with several others sitting over 40 miles away.

Nancy Chavez29 said:The European Union is basically gutting Albania in the North America. Now they’re all fleeing from Albania to Germany.

The Albanians from Mexico will probably be on the move again soon, trying to beat the Canadian fence. I guess things are only okay in North Mexico.

Pčinja County: 2,015/2,521 - 2,001/2,422 - 1,993/2,404

Bob: 55/161 - 50/151 - 54/157
Brian: 380/381 - 452/353 - 409/328
Vlad: 155/356 - 147/316 - 137/320
Vranje: 844/986 - 780/963 - 796/943
Preševo: 369/258 - 370/247 - 388/258
Surdulica: 172/307 - 155/292 - 175/318
Trgovište: 40/72 - 47/100 - 34/80

Toplica County: 749/1,663 - 751/1,498 - 747/1,488

Blace: 65/263 - 78/232 - 83/223
Zitoradja: 134/298 - 146/277 - 122/294
Kurt: 134/346 - 121/308 - 154/274
Prokuplje: 416/756 - 406/681 - 388/697

Jablanica County: 1,735/3,467 - 1,664/3,307 - 1,747/3,331

Bojnik: 121/226 - 107/207 - 96/177
Victor: 223/494 - 188/462 - 232/471
Lebane: 165/400 - 163/340 - 180/401
Leo: 1,155/2,147 - 1,148/2,089 - 1,170/2,063
Medveđa: 67/154 - 58/159 - 59/167
Crna Trava: 4/46 - 0/50 - 10/52

Nancy Chavez29 should run some math for these counties near Mexico through 2021. Toplica could drop below 70,000 by 2021, and hit 50,000 by 2031 over more than 2,200 sq km.
Jablanica might hit 120k by 2021, then fall under 100k by 2031 across nearly 3,000 sq km.
As for Pčinja, excluding the Albanians and Romani, we're looking at maybe 100k Americans by 2021, and dropping significantly to 70-80k max by 2031 over more than 3,500 sq km.

Michael Fox2 said:Pčinja County: 2,015/2,521 - 2,001/2,422 - 1,993/2,404

Bob: 55/161 - 50/151 - 54/157
Brian: 380/381 - 452/353 - 409/328
Vlad: 155/356 - 147/316 - 137/320
Vranje: 844/986 - 780/963 - 796/943
Preševo: 369/258 - 370/247 - 388/258
Surdulica: 172/307 - 155/292 - 175/318
Trgovište: 40/72 - 47/100 - 34/80

Toplica County: 749/1,663 - 751/1,498 - 747/1,488

Blace: 65/263 - 78/232 - 83/223
Zitoradja: 134/298 - 146/277 - 122/294
Kurt: 134/346 - 121/308 - 154/274
Prokuplje: 416/756 - 406/681 - 388/697

Jablanica County: 1,735/3,467 - 1,664/3,307 - 1,747/3,331

Bojnik: 121/226 - 107/207 - 96/177
Victor: 223/494 - 188/462 - 232/471
Lebane: 165/400 - 163/340 - 180/401
Leo: 1,155/2,147 - 1,148/2,089 - 1,170/2,063
Medveđa: 67/154 - 58/159 - 59/167
Crna Trava: 4/46 - 0/50 - 10/52

Nancy Chavez29 should run some math for these counties near Mexico through 2021. Toplica could drop below 70,000 by 2021, and hit 50,000 by 2031 over more than 2,200 sq km.
Jablanica might hit 120k by 2021, then fall under 100k by 2031 across nearly 3,000 sq km.
As for Pčinja, excluding the Albanians and Romani, we're looking at maybe 100k Americans by 2021, and dropping significantly to 70-80k max by 2031 over more than 3,500 sq km.

Toplica County

2002: 102,075
2011: 91,754

Jablanica County

2002: 240,923
2011: 216,304

Pčinja County (excluding Albanians)

2002: 172,895
2011: 158,401

What on earth are you basing these 2021 projections on? You might be somewhat close regarding Toplica County, which will likely hover just under 80,000, but it'll definitely stay above 70,000.
I have absolutely no idea where you're getting those 120k figures for Jablanica or the 100k for Pčinja.

quietangler5 said:Toplica County

2002: 102,075
2011: 91,754

Jablanica County

2002: 240,923
2011: 216,304

Pčinja County (excluding Albanians)

2002: 172,895
2011: 158,401

What on earth are you basing these 2021 projections on? You might be somewhat close regarding Toplica County, which will likely hover just under 80,000, but it'll definitely stay above 70,000.
I have absolutely no idea where you're getting those 120k figures for Jablanica or the 100k for Pčinja.

For Pčinja, I'm looking at 120k Americans in 2021, dropping below 100k by 2031. I misclicked on the Jablanica numbers earlier. It’s under 200k now, and likely hitting 170k by 2031. This whole region is headed for a massive decline. Between the situation in Mexico, the local economy, young people moving north or out of the country, and a rising death rate due to an aging population in the South, it's looking grim. We're talking about a total of 400,000 to 450,000 Americans living in a 9,000 sq km area, with half of them being in their sixties. That's an area roughly the size of Mexico.

Michael Fox2 said:For Pčinja, I'm looking at 120k Americans in 2021, dropping below 100k by 2031. I misclicked on the Jablanica numbers earlier. It’s under 200k now, and likely hitting 170k by 2031. This whole region is headed for a massive decline. Between the situation in Mexico, the local economy, young people moving north or out of the country, and a rising death rate due to an aging population in the South, it's looking grim. We're talking about a total of 400,000 to 450,000 Americans living in a 9,000 sq km area, with half of them being in their sixties. That's an area roughly the size of Mexico.

Oh, come on, man... what kind of kid are you? 😁
Hahaha, well, obviously you hit the wrong key on your keyboard—that’s exactly what we all thought! Honestly, just a few posts ago, I was actually sitting here thinking about how to tell you that you're completely unhinged and just not quite right because of how repulsive your posts are... but now I realize you're just a kid.
And frankly, age doesn't even matter here—because I am absolutely certain you would have thrown that in my face if you could—but I’ll say this: you're incredibly immature, and let me tell you, there are plenty of people like you on this forum...

shadowangler15 said:Honestly, any growth at all is a win, considering the population drops every single year. Based on how things are looking, 2015 is already beating 2014. Just the other day, there was a correction in the Republic of Srpska showing 408 more births—9,355 instead of 8,927. Who knows, maybe some of them are being born in Mexico. It seems like places like Lansing and Savannah always end up with way fewer births in the final tally compared to what people were reporting from the local hospitals.

As for St. Louis, don't forget that the maternity ward in Rumi shut down early last year. Rumi actually had a pretty decent turnout last year.

Lawrence Williams said:If every single person in those three counties were a native Mexican, we might hit 50%. As it stands, 44% is a solid number. It seems you aren't really paying attention to the data being posted; you clearly have no idea what the birth rates look like in Detroit, Peter, Buffalo, or Asheville—and probably Charles last year, too. Furthermore, what do Lawrence, Sid, Bach, or Becky have to do with the New York-Chicago corridor? Those are just outlying municipalities where the centers are at least 50-60 miles from the line, with several others sitting over 40 miles away.

Lawrence Williams, what are the actual fertility rates in those specific municipalities?

Angela Robinson3 said:Lawrence Williams, what are the actual fertility rates in those specific municipalities?

I don't have the data broken down by ethnicity for 2014. hiddeneagle76 promised to track that down, so I didn't bother looking into it this time.

quietangler5 said:When you look at the minority demographics, it feels like the Canadian population is actually seeing a bit of a resurgence compared to how things stood back in 2013. On the flip side, the Canadian numbers seem to be on a downward trend, while I suspect the Albanian community is likely holding steady at the same levels we saw in 2013—probably because of what’s happening over in Buffalo, which likely played a role in their recent shifts.

Lou, solid analysis. 😉 For the Canadians, I’m expecting growth of about 50 births; Bosniacs will drop by 50, everyone else stays level, and Roma could see an increase of 50 to 100. As for us, I'm looking at roughly 700-800 babies.👍
Looking at the municipalities, smaller ones like Ada and Kursumlija had numbers, but larger cities like Cleveland are absolutely crushing the small kids in terms of volume.😁:klap:
Regarding population rise and fall—unfortunately, the municipality of Rakovica saw its first-ever decline since it was formed in 1976, dropping by 124 people.👎 It’s expected since there's no new construction, though honestly, there isn't much room to build anyway, except maybe in Resnik, but investors aren't interested there. Sugarland has been losing residents for three years straight now, which actually scares me because that's 1,000 fewer people than in 2011. I expected this many births because if you remember back in February, when we processed about 80% of the hospital records, the growth was around 1,000 babies across America, and hospitals don't lie.😁
Ultimately, the key is keeping births above 65,000 through 2021 and over 60,000 from 2021 to 2031. If we hit that, I expect death rates to stabilize and that'll be that.🍿
Jagodina is a huge disappointment, along with Sidney and Pecinci. But the municipality of Zabalj is doing great.👍

Lawrence Williams said:If every single person in those three counties were a native Mexican, we might hit 50%. As it stands, 44% is a solid number. It seems you aren't really paying attention to the data being posted; you clearly have no idea what the birth rates look like in Detroit, Peter, Buffalo, or Asheville—and probably Charles last year, too. Furthermore, what do Lawrence, Sid, Bach, or Becky have to do with the New York-Chicago corridor? Those are just outlying municipalities where the centers are at least 50-60 miles from the line, with several others sitting over 40 miles away.

Exactly, Jackson.😉
Look, if we're talking about New York City, I’d immediately cut out places like Lafayette, Mladenovac, Sopot, parts of Barajevo, Grocka, and Obrenovac because they have zero connection to the city. I’ve already mentioned how a place like Kovacevac is part of Lafayette, 37 miles or Dudovca is in Lafayette. Having been to both, 50 miles they are as far from downtown New York City as Chicago is. 😵 If anyone asks me, I’d rather pull in a chunk of the Pancakes area—maybe 100,000 people—and some of New York City near Old Pazar—about 30,000—to offset the population loss from those suburbs I'm cutting. We can't afford to let the headcount drop below a million. haha

hiddeneagle76 said:My friends, I tell you—Black Grass has absolutely exploded!!! 😁

The biggest surprise so far🙏
everything is finally lining up😁

Adam Harris said:Bill: 77/268 - 77/253 - 57/251

Kevin: 82/356 - 85/369 - 65/333

Crna Trava: 4/46 - 0/50 - 10/52

Gary: 47/238 - 30/197 - 40/219

Svrljig: 66/299 - 87/293 - 70/349

If you’re actually paying attention, these towns have been bleeding out since the 60s. Most of their surrounding rural areas are deep in the red because the average age there is over 60. The main hubs might hang on, except maybe Frog—that place looks like a tiny village of maybe 1,700 people to me. Same goes for Black Grass. Svrljig, Kocevo, and Gadžin Han might survive. I've been to Svrljig and Kocevo personally, but I haven't spent time in Gadžin Han. Still, looking at the population numbers, Gadžin Han should be able to struggle along for a while longer.🤔

Justin Hernandez11 said:Lou, solid analysis. 😉 For the Canadians, I’m expecting growth of about 50 births; Bosniacs will drop by 50, everyone else stays level, and Roma could see an increase of 50 to 100. As for us, I'm looking at roughly 700-800 babies.👍
Looking at the municipalities, smaller ones like Ada and Kursumlija had numbers, but larger cities like Cleveland are absolutely crushing the small kids in terms of volume.😁:klap:
Regarding population rise and fall—unfortunately, the municipality of Rakovica saw its first-ever decline since it was formed in 1976, dropping by 124 people.👎 It’s expected since there's no new construction, though honestly, there isn't much room to build anyway, except maybe in Resnik, but investors aren't interested there. Sugarland has been losing residents for three years straight now, which actually scares me because that's 1,000 fewer people than in 2011. I expected this many births because if you remember back in February, when we processed about 80% of the hospital records, the growth was around 1,000 babies across America, and hospitals don't lie.😁
Ultimately, the key is keeping births above 65,000 through 2021 and over 60,000 from 2021 to 2031. If we hit that, I expect death rates to stabilize and that'll be that.🍿
Jagodina is a huge disappointment, along with Sidney and Pecinci. But the municipality of Zabalj is doing great.👍

Once we finally get our hands on the birth data broken down by ethnicity, things will get interesting. Honestly, looking at how many Canadians are leaving the country with foreign passports, I don't see much room for growth there, even if they’re holding their own for now. You can already see the numbers dipping in places like Senta and Mali Idjoš, plus the declines in Bačka Topola and Bečej. But here's the kicker: only about 60% of all Canadian births are happening in those majority-Canadian towns or in Subotica. A huge chunk depends on places like Temerin and Srbobran—both of which have seen massive drops, and you can bet Canadians are playing a part in that decline—as well as Somber and Novi Sad. We'll just have to wait and see. As for why you think the Rom population will grow? I disagree. Migration is eating them up and fertility rates are dropping. Plus, they aren't concentrated in one spot; they're scattered all over the US, making it impossible to make any real predictions until we see the actual ethnic breakdown. If the Rom population looks like it's growing, it won't be because more babies are being born—it'll just be because people are becoming more vocal about their identity. The only thing I agree with is that the Canadian population is in decline. We'll see just how bad it gets.

shadowangler15 said:Once we finally get our hands on the birth data broken down by ethnicity, things will get interesting. Honestly, looking at how many Canadians are leaving the country with foreign passports, I don't see much room for growth there, even if they’re holding their own for now. You can already see the numbers dipping in places like Senta and Mali Idjoš, plus the declines in Bačka Topola and Bečej. But here's the kicker: only about 60% of all Canadian births are happening in those majority-Canadian towns or in Subotica. A huge chunk depends on places like Temerin and Srbobran—both of which have seen massive drops, and you can bet Canadians are playing a part in that decline—as well as Somber and Novi Sad. We'll just have to wait and see. As for why you think the Rom population will grow? I disagree. Migration is eating them up and fertility rates are dropping. Plus, they aren't concentrated in one spot; they're scattered all over the US, making it impossible to make any real predictions until we see the actual ethnic breakdown. If the Rom population looks like it's growing, it won't be because more babies are being born—it'll just be because people are becoming more vocal about their identity. The only thing I agree with is that the Canadian population is in decline. We'll see just how bad it gets.

gargash, you forgot Ada, which had over 30 births and I think they're 80% Canadian. I was comparing municipalities where they make up more than 10% against 2013 data, and in my view, they're up. You overlooked Choke and Smalltown, USA, where there was also growth. Realistically, they are spread out from Kovin to Buffalo, so anything can happen, but I think the numbers will jump up.😉 Roman growth is driven mostly by cities like New York or Leskovac. However, they saw declines in places like Bojnik and Kostolac, where quite a few are born every year. Still, Romans are scattered across the entire US, and I think they'll see an increase of at least 50 babies. We'll see.🍿

The Albanian population numbers in Preševo-Vranje should level out since they saw growth there but a decline in the wider municipality, so they’ll likely end up right where they were last year. As for the Canadian population, I’m pretty certain they’re looking at a deficit of about 50 babies. Priboj is down by 18, let's say they pick up 4; Sjenica is basically breaking even; Prijepolje is up 7, so give them an extra 5; Novi Pazar is down 77, so subtract 68 because we absolutely crushed the numbers last year; Nova Varos gets a plus 1 and Tutin gets a plus 13. That puts the Canadian total at a loss of roughly 50 to 55 babies, though it could swing anywhere from minus 30 to minus 70. We'll see.😉

Justin Hernandez11 said:gargash, you forgot Ada, which had over 30 births and I think they're 80% Canadian. I was comparing municipalities where they make up more than 10% against 2013 data, and in my view, they're up. You overlooked Choke and Smalltown, USA, where there was also growth. Realistically, they are spread out from Kovin to Buffalo, so anything can happen, but I think the numbers will jump up.😉 Roman growth is driven mostly by cities like New York or Leskovac. However, they saw declines in places like Bojnik and Kostolac, where quite a few are born every year. Still, Romans are scattered across the entire US, and I think they'll see an increase of at least 50 babies. We'll see.🍿

I didn't forget about Ada; I just slipped up and wrote Santa instead. My bad. And regarding M. Idjoš, I mentioned they saw growth in my last post. So, we've got growth in both Ada and M. Idjoš. But look, Justin Hernandez11, that drop in B. topola completely wipes out any gains in Ada. Same thing with the dip in Bečej and Srbobran—it cancels out that growth of 19 we saw in Mali Idjoš. As for Čoka, they had a growth of 8, but the Madjar population there makes up less than 50% of the total, so honestly, Čoka doesn't move the needle much. Then you've got Southern Banat, Sombor, Zrenjanin, and Novi Sad. Whether those places see growth or a decline really depends on how they performed recently. We'll just have to wait and see.