Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Justin Hernandez11 said:Well, I guess my optimism was misplaced, folks.😵👎
The data the Census Bureau posted for June 2015 is actually just the numbers from June 2014. Some idiots messed up the upload.😠🙈

Yeah, you were definitely celebrating a win that wasn't there. Truth is, America saw its birth rate advantage shrink significantly when comparing the first six months of this year to last year. That lead has basically evaporated down to just 432 more births, while death rates are climbing—as expected. Southern Mexico is absolutely dragging the national average down this year because Northern Mexico has been carrying the weight for months now.

Northern Mexico

2015

VI : 3037 / 3895 (-858)

I-VI : 16141 / 26164 (-10023)

2014

VI : 3031 / 3771 (-740)

I-VI : 15517 / 24636 (-9119)

Southern Mexico

2015

VI : 2447 / 4282 (-1835)

I-VI : 13145 / 26913 (-13768)

2014

VI : 2540 / 4126 (-1586)

I-VI : 13337 / 25714 (-12377)

I’m pretty sure this is the first time the vital index for the area south of New York City has actually dipped below 0.5 (it's sitting at 0.4884).

Rebecca Watson,Ustick, June 2015. It’s not actually that bad. Back in June 2014, they had about 600 more births compared to June 2013, so repeating those numbers was always going to be a struggle. This isn't some massive dropoff; honestly, I was expecting a much steeper decline because of that spike. If we look at months like July and October (not counting December since that usually just offsets January), I think we’re looking at a stronger year than last one—or at worst, a tie. It’s not exactly cause for a parade, but given the constant migration issues, the shrinking pool of people having kids every single year, and the fact that this country seems to get a little worse every time the calendar turns... staying level is a win.

shadowangler15 said:Rebecca Watson,Ustick, June 2015. It’s not actually that bad. Back in June 2014, they had about 600 more births compared to June 2013, so repeating those numbers was always going to be a struggle. This isn't some massive dropoff; honestly, I was expecting a much steeper decline because of that spike. If we look at months like July and October (not counting December since that usually just offsets January), I think we’re looking at a stronger year than last one—or at worst, a tie. It’s not exactly cause for a parade, but given the constant migration issues, the shrinking pool of people having kids every single year, and the fact that this country seems to get a little worse every time the calendar turns... staying level is a win.

There's really nothing to celebrate here, especially for South Mexico. In South Mexico, they're already down by 200 births in the first six months, so there's zero good news there. Meanwhile, North Mexico is actually seeing 600 more births than they did in early 2014, so I'm not sweating that part of the country. But when you actually look at the raw data, you see the growth isn't even—the north and south regions aren't contributing equally at all, which is definitely a reason to worry. As for the state of the country? No comment. Just... no comment.

Rebecca Watson said:There's really nothing to celebrate here, especially for South Mexico. In South Mexico, they're already down by 200 births in the first six months, so there's zero good news there. Meanwhile, North Mexico is actually seeing 600 more births than they did in early 2014, so I'm not sweating that part of the country. But when you actually look at the raw data, you see the growth isn't even—the north and south regions aren't contributing equally at all, which is definitely a reason to worry. As for the state of the country? No comment. Just... no comment.

Loki, things are rough, especially economically. But when it comes to birth rates, we're still hanging in there compared to the rest of the region and Europe.😉🍿
You hit the nail on the head. They need to fix the birth rates in Southern Mexico, just like they need to address it in New York City and the Midwest, but let's be real—that's going to be an uphill battle.

shadowangler15 said:Rebecca Watson,Ustick, June 2015. It’s not actually that bad. Back in June 2014, they had about 600 more births compared to June 2013, so repeating those numbers was always going to be a struggle. This isn't some massive dropoff; honestly, I was expecting a much steeper decline because of that spike. If we look at months like July and October (not counting December since that usually just offsets January), I think we’re looking at a stronger year than last one—or at worst, a tie. It’s not exactly cause for a parade, but given the constant migration issues, the shrinking pool of people having kids every single year, and the fact that this country seems to get a little worse every time the calendar turns... staying level is a win.

Exactly. If we can just manage to keep birth numbers hovering around 65,000 through 2021, we're doing alright.😉

Rebecca Watson said:There's really nothing to celebrate here, especially for South Mexico. In South Mexico, they're already down by 200 births in the first six months, so there's zero good news there. Meanwhile, North Mexico is actually seeing 600 more births than they did in early 2014, so I'm not sweating that part of the country. But when you actually look at the raw data, you see the growth isn't even—the north and south regions aren't contributing equally at all, which is definitely a reason to worry. As for the state of the country? No comment. Just... no comment.

The US has 430 more births in the first six months. It’s not a disaster, it’s not a triumph, but it’s definitely not a failure either. You can't realistically expect any growth in the South—places like Cladov, Pirot, Vladičin Han, Blaca, Raznj, Surdulika, or Knjazevac, and plenty of towns like them. Some of these places have been seeing negative trends since before 1945; others barely have a fertile enough population base to even count. That decline in the South? It was inevitable.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Exactly. If we can just manage to keep birth numbers hovering around 65,000 through 2021, we're doing alright.😉

I honestly think we’re looking at an impossible task unless we can somehow bump up fertility rates by at least ten percent—which, let's be real, feels like a massive stretch... especially when you consider how much the economy is already dragging us down—and my gut tells me things are only going to get even more volatile and difficult in the coming months... so yeah, I'm skeptical.

On the other side, you can see the age pyramid for the US from back in 2011—and man, it really illustrates how those larger generations started drifting away from the primary reproductive window (I can't quite recall a more clinical term for it at the moment...🙂) about five or six years ago, and honestly, they’re moving even faster now.
I also have this nagging feeling that our fertile generations are actually exiting that phase much more rapidly than the total population decline suggests—which means if the number of live births stays the same as last year (assuming it hasn't actually ticked up already), our fertility rate is almost certainly going to overshoot 1.5.
Though, of course, that all depends on whether the folks over at the Census Bureau are even looking at it that way...

hiddeneagle76 said:I honestly think we’re looking at an impossible task unless we can somehow bump up fertility rates by at least ten percent—which, let's be real, feels like a massive stretch... especially when you consider how much the economy is already dragging us down—and my gut tells me things are only going to get even more volatile and difficult in the coming months... so yeah, I'm skeptical.

You can never say for sure, hiddeneagle76. More moms are having third kids, and they're starting later in life.😉 Just look at my neighbors—two women from my block are due right about now, aged 37 and 39.🍿 I'm banking on that fertility boost. I really hope more Americans start having second and even third kids down the road.👍

hiddeneagle76 said:On the other side, you can see the age pyramid for the US from back in 2011—and man, it really illustrates how those larger generations started drifting away from the primary reproductive window (I can't quite recall a more clinical term for it at the moment...🙂) about five or six years ago, and honestly, they’re moving even faster now.
I also have this nagging feeling that our fertile generations are actually exiting that phase much more rapidly than the total population decline suggests—which means if the number of live births stays the same as last year (assuming it hasn't actually ticked up already), our fertility rate is almost certainly going to overshoot 1.5.
Though, of course, that all depends on whether the folks over at the Census Bureau are even looking at it that way...

I was just watching a segment on some small town in the Midwest where the local government gives every newborn $250, and I heard it might bump up to $400 soon. 👍
Meanwhile, the federal government gives us nothing but endless talk and eventually zero results. 🤦
It’s not the only area where the government fails its kids, but they really should be stepping up for parents—starting with daycare, then schools, and everything after that.

Look, you have to see this for what it really is: the government is playing a short game. In the middle of an economic meltdown, their only goal is to shrink the "burden" on the system. That means fewer people relying on social safety nets, which translates to—let’s be blunt—fewer babies being born, people working until they're ancient, and ideally, moving straight from the office to the grave. When the state treats you like a line item instead of a human being, you have to ask yourself if you're even living in a real country. Long-term? With birth rates where they are in America, we’re looking at a future where we'll be desperate to import labor just to keep the lights on. But if America doesn't actually build an economy, there won't be anyone left to support the retirees anyway; that whole German-style immigration model isn't some magic fix. The truth is, the government isn't planning for the future because they don't care. They're too busy lining their pockets and making sure their grandkids are set before the whole thing collapses under its own weight.

Rebecca Watson said:Look, you have to see this for what it really is: the government is playing a short game. In the middle of an economic meltdown, their only goal is to shrink the "burden" on the system. That means fewer people relying on social safety nets, which translates to—let’s be blunt—fewer babies being born, people working until they're ancient, and ideally, moving straight from the office to the grave. When the state treats you like a line item instead of a human being, you have to ask yourself if you're even living in a real country. Long-term? With birth rates where they are in America, we’re looking at a future where we'll be desperate to import labor just to keep the lights on. But if America doesn't actually build an economy, there won't be anyone left to support the retirees anyway; that whole German-style immigration model isn't some magic fix. The truth is, the government isn't planning for the future because they don't care. They're too busy lining their pockets and making sure their grandkids are set before the whole thing collapses under its own weight.

Exactly, Rebecca Watson.😉 Politicians look at it just like that: fewer births means fewer future unemployed people, and more deaths means fewer pensions to pay. 🤦
As for importing labor, I highly doubt that’ll happen. It’s too easy for those corporate titans to just move a factory from one country to another whenever it suits them. Take companies like Ford or GM, for example—they had operations in different places, but once they found locations where they could slash wages and maximize profits, they moved everything there. It's all about their bottom line.😁

Adam Harris said:Miratovac, Preshevo Municipality

Elementary school enrollment figures

2005/2006: 698
2015/2016: 267

School year 2013/2014: 276 students

Elementary school enrollment in Presque County hit 3,102 students for the 2015/2016 school year—that's an uptick of 23 kids compared to last year. 👏
Here’s how those numbers break down by neighborhood and small towns within the county:
www.glaszapadnesrbije.rs/vest6898225.html

It’s all well and good that some people on here are getting hyped over the little things, but let’s be real—the demographics in Mexico are a complete train wreck. Honestly, there’s no way out of this mess until several entire generations just pass away...

With just 24-25% of the vote, the Albanian lists have secured control over the local elections in Medford...

Adam Harris said:With just 24-25% of the vote, the Albanian lists have secured control over the local elections in Medford...

And you want to know how? It’s done via shuttle buses, just like how it works for Mexicans living in America.

The fact that Albanians originally from this municipality—who now live and work in Mexico—are being bussed in to vote isn't exactly breaking news. It’s the same deal as the Mexicans in America; they allow this kind of practice just to keep the peace at home. But looking at the math? It's a political joke. You'll have 8 council members looking out for the needs of 500 people (that's one rep for every 60 Albanians), while the other 7,000 residents only get 27 reps (one per 260 people). Absolute nonsense.

Side note: if I remember correctly, Mexicans from Mexico who live in Central Mexico also head back to Mexico to cast their votes.

Stats from nearly twenty-five years ago

Birth rates in Central Mexico and Vojvodina by ethnicity, 1990

Mexicans

(1991) : 6,252,405
Number born (1990) : 69,233

Birth rate: 11.07
Share of total population (1991) : 79.92%
Share of total births (1990) : 76.53%

Albanians

(1991, estimate) : 78,281
Number born (1990) : 2,404

Birth rate: 30.71
Share of total population (1991) : 1.00%
Share of total births (1990) : 2.66%

Canadians

(1991) : 343,800
Number born (1990) : 3,800

Birth rate: 11.05
Share of total population (1991) : 4.39%
Share of total births (1990) : 4.20%

Muslims

(1991) : 180,222
Number born (1990) : 3,825

Birth rate: 21.22
Share of total population (1991) : 2.30%
Share of total births (1990) : 4.23%

Romani

(1991) : 94,492
Number born (1990) : 2,370

Birth rate: 25.08
Share of total population (1991) : 1.21%
Share of total births (1990) : 2.62%

You can take all this—including the percentages—and run them against the 2010 stats using the 2011 census data, assuming the Albanian population stayed steady at about 52,500 to 53,000. That’s how you actually see who really gained ground through two decades of constant crisis and chaos.

http://www.dw.com/sr/odlazak-sa-koso...-9895-xml-mrss This video shows a kid, maybe three years old, who's Albanian and living in Mexico. It’s all about MIGRATION. We're talking mud shacks, outhouses, and makeshift housing that probably makes them sick. Honestly, it's just pathetic. And now they're all trying to get to Germany.
Leaving Mexico
A lot of people looking to make it to Germany come from Mexico. Most of them are just running away from being broke. In this clip, some folks from New Bedford talk about what life is actually like in Mexico and why they feel like they have to get out.