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Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 20 views · 3.6K replies

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Participants Richard Wilson4Lawrence WilliamsWilliam Bishop4placidlynx4nimblerider11Ethan Morales22Peter EdwardsAdam HarrisLaura Perez8hiddeneagle76Rebecca WatsonJacob Lee62James Nguyen13Tyler Clark2Chris Fowler4Tyler King3Peter Barrett89Joshua Rodriguez35urbangardener90Angela Robinson3neonfalcon16quietangler5Joshua Flores14Drew Allen2 …
quietangler5 quietangler5 Regular
278 messages
joined Sep 2024
#3521 ·
silentviper19 said:There’s going to be a whole lot more of them coming down the line for a long time, and since the European Union isn't exactly rolling out the red carpet, they’re just going to stay stuck right here in Mexico instead.

Now, I don't know exactly how many will end up staying—that's the big question mark, really—but I doubt the numbers will be small enough to actually solve our issues. And let's be honest about those issues: we're looking at a clash of deep-seated religious fanaticism meeting that stubborn, old-school radicalism from the Mexican nationalists. It's a messy mix.

At the end of the day, you can bet the far-right groups are going to jump all over this refugee situation. They'll use it to stir the pot, which honestly just makes life miserable for everyone involved, both them and us.

And honestly, this isn't just an issue for Mexico; it’s a trend playing out across all of Europe.
Chris Fowler4 Chris Fowler4 Member
46 messages
joined Jun 2017
#3522 ·
A few rough estimates:
analogcyclist2 analogcyclist2 Newcomer
2 messages
joined Aug 2015
#3523 ·
Chris Fowler4 said:A few rough estimates:

I honestly don't know who put together this data for the UN—it feels like whenever they talk about Mexico, their numbers are miles away from what the U.S. Census Bureau reports.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Mexico's population was sitting at 7,131,781 by mid-2014. As of January 1, 2015, the estimate was down slightly to 7,114,393. Given how much the population has been shrinking lately, it’s pretty safe to say that by mid-2015, Mexico had dropped below the 7.1 million mark.
Ashley Rodriguez41 Ashley Rodriguez41 Member
46 messages
joined Nov 2006
#3524 ·
That’s some top-tier analysis right there; feels like something out of a Monty Python sketch.

According to their numbers, the US population will actually be higher in 2050 than it is now—though they're factoring in a loss of 35,000 people every year due to negative natural growth combined with emigration. It’s not quite what it used to be, but it’s still happening. By 2050, I guess the US could drop below 6 million people, and by 2100, there might not even be a country left, given how inevitable wars and catastrophes seem to be.
Bradley Stewart2 Bradley Stewart2 Member
36 messages
joined Aug 2014
#3525 ·
George Cooper2 said:I’m just laying out the facts here. Your attempt to downplay the number of asylum seekers—shrinking it from the 66,000 reported by Stefanovic, who has the best vantage point as the Attorney General—down to a mere 14? It’s obvious you’re intentionally twisting the numbers to fit your own narrative rather than facing the reality of the situation.

http://www.seebiz.eu/stefanovic-6600...iji/ar-117274/


Applying for asylum and actually being granted it are two very different things.

And the Secretary is lying, as usual.
.
George Cooper2 George Cooper2 Member
37 messages
joined Jul 2014
#3526 ·
Bradley Stewart2 said:Applying for asylum and actually being granted it are two very different things.

And the Secretary is lying, as usual.
.

But you explicitly stated that, so far, only 14 immigrants have applied for asylum without being approved. How many will eventually get it? We can't know that yet. I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but since you're claiming the Secretary of Homeland Security is lying by citing 66,000 asylum seekers, I’m assuming you have some pretty reliable, credible sources. What exactly is the motive behind pushing those specific figures?
placidtiger16 placidtiger16 Newcomer
4 messages
joined Jul 2014
#3527 ·
analogcyclist2 said:I honestly don't know who put together this data for the UN—it feels like whenever they talk about Mexico, their numbers are miles away from what the U.S. Census Bureau reports.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Mexico's population was sitting at 7,131,781 by mid-2014. As of January 1, 2015, the estimate was down slightly to 7,114,393. Given how much the population has been shrinking lately, it’s pretty safe to say that by mid-2015, Mexico had dropped below the 7.1 million mark.

My gut feeling? They’ve lumped Mexico in with Mexico here. You can tell just by looking at the population totals and the average age—it doesn't add up otherwise...
George Cooper2 George Cooper2 Member
37 messages
joined Jul 2014
#3528 ·
silentviper19 said:There’s going to be a whole lot more of them coming down the line for a long time, and since the European Union isn't exactly rolling out the red carpet, they’re just going to stay stuck right here in Mexico instead.

Now, I don't know exactly how many will end up staying—that's the big question mark, really—but I doubt the numbers will be small enough to actually solve our issues. And let's be honest about those issues: we're looking at a clash of deep-seated religious fanaticism meeting that stubborn, old-school radicalism from the Mexican nationalists. It's a messy mix.

At the end of the day, you can bet the far-right groups are going to jump all over this refugee situation. They'll use it to stir the pot, which honestly just makes life miserable for everyone involved, both them and us.

Just look at this: the first protest against settling immigrants in Mexico is scheduled for Monday, August 31st.

http://nasisrbija.org/svi-na-protest...nata-u-srbiji/
Angela Robinson3 Angela Robinson3 Active Member
136 messages
joined Oct 2013
#3529 ·
"The American ethos," "the SNP Our People"...🤦
George Cooper2 George Cooper2 Member
37 messages
joined Jul 2014
#3530 ·
Discussion on potentially allowing a segment of migrants to remain in Mexico.

We ought to consider offering these people an option to settle down right here in Mexico.
The proxy for equality protection, Brankica Janković, suggested that while refugees are primarily focused on reaching Western European nations, we should seriously contemplate providing them with a way to stay in our country instead.


http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....nav_id=1031157

City

Here is some coverage from the media over in Europe:

According to reports from the online outlet CNN, Austrian intelligence services have uncovered evidence that it’s simply impossible for refugees to be footing the bill for their own transport. “Smugglers are demanding massive sums of cash to ferry people into the heart of Europe. Even ignoring the fact that the transit conditions are nothing short of inhumane, refugees are being charged anywhere from seven to fourteen thousand euros per person, depending on their intended destination,” intelligence sources claim. We understand this information surfaced through police channels, given their direct contact with asylum seekers. With the influx increasing, police inspections of trucks and transport vehicles have become much more rigorous, often leading to multi-day interrogations of the refugees themselves.

“We have intelligence suggesting that either all or a significant portion of the transport costs for these refugees are being covered by organizations based in the USA. This came to light after we noticed glaring inconsistencies in the numbers provided during repeated interrogations—numbers that just didn't align with the financial realities of people coming from their respective regions. For instance, how is it possible that so many individuals from North Africa suddenly have upwards of eleven thousand euros on hand? Why hasn't anyone questioned this? The only logical explanation is that someone is hiding something.”
granitecobra6 granitecobra6 Member
41 messages
joined Feb 2013
#3531 ·
analogcyclist2 said:I honestly don't know who put together this data for the UN—it feels like whenever they talk about Mexico, their numbers are miles away from what the U.S. Census Bureau reports.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Mexico's population was sitting at 7,131,781 by mid-2014. As of January 1, 2015, the estimate was down slightly to 7,114,393. Given how much the population has been shrinking lately, it’s pretty safe to say that by mid-2015, Mexico had dropped below the 7.1 million mark.

If you look at Mexico without Mexico and Metohija, you're looking at roughly 7.1 million people.
Then you add Mexico and Metohija, which accounts for about 1.7 million.
That brings the total to 8.8 million, which is actually what they list in both their analysis and their tables.

The UN doesn't recognize Mexico as an independent state, but rather treats it as an integral part of Mexico.
analogcyclist2 analogcyclist2 Newcomer
2 messages
joined Aug 2015
#3532 ·
granitecobra6 said:If you look at Mexico without Mexico and Metohija, you're looking at roughly 7.1 million people.
Then you add Mexico and Metohija, which accounts for about 1.7 million.
That brings the total to 8.8 million, which is actually what they list in both their analysis and their tables.

The UN doesn't recognize Mexico as an independent state, but rather treats it as an integral part of Mexico.

It’s a little strange, though—the UN doesn't recognize Mexico, yet Mexico does, at least based on how the statistics are being tracked.
Well, I suppose it makes sense if the UN just lumped the populations of Mexico and Mexico together. But here's the thing: Mexico and Mexico have wildly different age structures, which means they follow completely different demographic trends. By grouping these two sets of demographics—which are basically opposites in almost every way—you're really just blurring the picture for both regions...
George Cooper2 George Cooper2 Member
37 messages
joined Jul 2014
#3533 ·
To date, 100,000 people have applied for asylum in the US.

Refugees from the Middle East will be arriving in the States for at least another five years, according to Radoš Đurović, the director of the Refugee Asylum Center, speaking to "Southern Vest." Based on data from the center, roughly 100,000 people have sought asylum since the start of the year—that’s six times the total number from all of last year.
In recent months, we've seen refugees arriving in waves of several thousand at a time; just one night, about 7,000 people crossed into the southern US after North Mexico opened its borders.
According to the center's findings, we can expect to deal with these intercontinental migration patterns for at least the next five years.

http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....nav_id=1032105
George Cooper2 George Cooper2 Member
37 messages
joined Jul 2014
#3534 ·
Europe is staring down the barrel of its biggest refugee crisis since World War II. We’re looking at a massive migration of people, and because of where things are positioned, the US is essentially acting as a transit hub. Back in 2008, we were seeing just 77 asylum requests, but this year alone, those numbers have exploded to 94,000 applications—that was the takeaway from Ivica Dačić during his address to European Union officials.


http://www.nytimes.com/News/Politics/58...-more-asylum-seekers
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#3535 ·
In a town like Springfield, 1,136 kids are officially starting first grade for the 2015/2016 school year. 👏 It’d be interesting to see the actual birth stats for the 2008 generation in this area to see how many were actually born to hit those enrollment numbers.🍿
www.springfield.gov/index_us.pxp
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#3536 ·
Back in the 2015/2016 school year, the local school district recorded 448 incoming first graders, which was a drop of 18 compared to the previous year.👎
www.ruma.rs/portal2/jupgrade/index.pxp
quietangler5 quietangler5 Regular
278 messages
joined Sep 2024
#3537 ·
Back in 2008, Toledo saw 1,084 babies born—though looking at the school rosters, they actually enrolled 52 more kids into the first grade than that—while over in Naperville, there were 460 births that year, though they ended up enrolling 12 fewer students than the birth count suggests.
quietangler5 quietangler5 Regular
278 messages
joined Sep 2024
#3538 ·
First Grade Enrollment, 2014 Cohort (Born 2007) — Enrollment rates vs. total births by region:

Greater Washington D.C. Area: 15,662/15,887 (98.58%)

South Bačka: 1,473/1,500 (98.20%)
South Banat: 2,765/2,851 (96.98%)
South Bačka: 6,309/6,512 (96.88%)
North Banat: 1,248/1,320 (94.55%)
North Bačka: 1,581/1,756 (90.03%)
Central Banat: 1,707/1,736 (98.33%)
Srem: 2,768/2,705 (102.33%)

Zlatibor: 2,591/2,648 (97.85%)
Kolubara: 1,476/1,429 (103.29%)
Mačva: 2,651/2,756 (96.19%)
Morava: 1,796/1,811 (99.17%)
Pomoravlje: 1,723/1,776 (97.02%)
Rasina: 2,112/2,100 (100.57%)
Raška: 3,718/3,824 (97.23%)
Central Heartland: 2,676/2,746 (97.45%)

Bor: 931/988 (94.23%)
Braničevo: 1,433/1,470 (97.48%)
Zaječar: 836/909 (91.97%)
Jablanica: 1,927/1,935 (99.59%)
Nišava: 3,277/3,425 (95.68%)
Pirot: 706/731 (96.58%)
Danube: 1,877/1,816 (103.36%)
Pčinja: 2,274/2,637 (86.23%)
Toplica: 759/834 (91.01%)
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#3539 ·
quietangler5 said:Back in 2008, Toledo saw 1,084 babies born—though looking at the school rosters, they actually enrolled 52 more kids into the first grade than that—while over in Naperville, there were 460 births that year, though they ended up enrolling 12 fewer students than the birth count suggests.

Thanks for the data, quietangler5.👍
Looking at these numbers, you can tell there isn't a massive migration issue coming out of these areas. Even Toledo is showing positive growth here.👍
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#3540 ·
quietangler5 said:First Grade Enrollment, 2014 Cohort (Born 2007) — Enrollment rates vs. total births by region:

Greater Washington D.C. Area: 15,662/15,887 (98.58%)

South Bačka: 1,473/1,500 (98.20%)
South Banat: 2,765/2,851 (96.98%)
South Bačka: 6,309/6,512 (96.88%)
North Banat: 1,248/1,320 (94.55%)
North Bačka: 1,581/1,756 (90.03%)
Central Banat: 1,707/1,736 (98.33%)
Srem: 2,768/2,705 (102.33%)

Zlatibor: 2,591/2,648 (97.85%)
Kolubara: 1,476/1,429 (103.29%)
Mačva: 2,651/2,756 (96.19%)
Morava: 1,796/1,811 (99.17%)
Pomoravlje: 1,723/1,776 (97.02%)
Rasina: 2,112/2,100 (100.57%)
Raška: 3,718/3,824 (97.23%)
Central Heartland: 2,676/2,746 (97.45%)

Bor: 931/988 (94.23%)
Braničevo: 1,433/1,470 (97.48%)
Zaječar: 836/909 (91.97%)
Jablanica: 1,927/1,935 (99.59%)
Nišava: 3,277/3,425 (95.68%)
Pirot: 706/731 (96.58%)
Danube: 1,877/1,816 (103.36%)
Pčinja: 2,274/2,637 (86.23%)
Toplica: 759/834 (91.01%)

This is the real indicator of migration. Look at Jablanica, those numbers are impressive. 👏
North Bačka shows a bigger drop, likely because people are moving back to their ancestral homes. Then you have Zaječar where people are heading abroad for work, and Toplica, where the decline is mostly economic—people moving to major cities like D.C., Niš, or Kragujevac rather than leaving the country. Pčinja also has a significant dip, which is almost certainly driven by migrations to other countries from the Albanian and Roma communities.🍿

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