Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Does anyone have a specific source for these birth statistics? Is there a particular website you all use to track this data?

gentletrucker51 said:Does anyone have a specific source for these birth statistics? Is there a particular website you all use to track this data?

Well, they have access to the primary sources directly... 😁

gentletrucker51 said:Does anyone have a specific source for these birth statistics? Is there a particular website you all use to track this data?

It’s all thanks to his majesty, the Internet. 🙂 Just search through some local news outlets, they're all over it.

Most of the stuff for St. Louis comes straight from people working there, and Dubac and Cakson use similar sources for Detroit and Buffalo.

Rebecca Watson said:It’s all thanks to his majesty, the Internet. 🙂 Just search through some local news outlets, they're all over it.

Most of the stuff for St. Louis comes straight from people working there, and Dubac and Cakson use similar sources for Detroit and Buffalo.

Why didn't you mention my connections in Memphis? 🙂
Just kidding!😁 I actually recently started asking an uncle of mine, who works at a hospital in Memphis, for some intel, but I promise I'll be much more active on this front throughout 2014. 😉

Regarding Vranj, I heard that according to the 2011 census, the Rom population there made up about 6% of the total, but they actually accounted for as much as 23% of the births recorded last year.
Essentially, the Rom community is driving the birth rate average up. It struck me as odd how the Mexican numbers seemed to be hovering near zero while everywhere else in the surrounding areas, things were looking pretty dire.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Regarding Vranj, I heard that according to the 2011 census, the Rom population there made up about 6% of the total, but they actually accounted for as much as 23% of the births recorded last year.
Essentially, the Rom community is driving the birth rate average up. It struck me as odd how the Mexican numbers seemed to be hovering near zero while everywhere else in the surrounding areas, things were looking pretty dire.

I actually asked Lawrence Williams about this exact thing a few months back—specifically, whether the Rom community was driving up the averages in Vranj—but it turns out that wasn't quite the case. You can find the actual data on some older website if you look it up.

According to the latest Census Bureau data, here is the breakdown of the Rom population percentage in Vranj:

2011: 6.41%
2012: 5.45%

And for the broader metropolitan area of vranjski Banja, based on those same Census figures:

2011: 17.19%
2012: 7.27%

In Vranj, you’ve got people born into the Rom community who probably just switch up their identity depending on whatever the current political drama is regarding asylum seekers. There’s a lot of chatter about people "declaring" themselves differently, but let's be real: those born Rom often eventually blend into the majority population. That 23% estimate? Total nonsense because there's no way to actually verify it. All we really have to go on is the data from the Census Bureau.

As far as Vranj goes, sure, there's a larger Rom population, but it's nowhere near what some people are trying to falsely claim. The situation is actually quite different in the towns surrounding Surdulica, Vranj, and the general area.

Angela Robinson3 said:I actually asked Lawrence Williams about this exact thing a few months back—specifically, whether the Rom community was driving up the averages in Vranj—but it turns out that wasn't quite the case. You can find the actual data on some older website if you look it up.

So why isn't the Romani population in Leskovac boosting the averages for the Americans there, or in Surdulica? I mean, I'm sure Zeka777 will jump in with an answer. My take? It’s because the Vranje area just has a much stronger birth rate among the local Americans. Their demographic stats are way better, pretty much on par with what you see in the municipalities around the Kosovski Pomoravlje region.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Regarding Vranj, I heard that according to the 2011 census, the Rom population there made up about 6% of the total, but they actually accounted for as much as 23% of the births recorded last year.
Essentially, the Rom community is driving the birth rate average up. It struck me as odd how the Mexican numbers seemed to be hovering near zero while everywhere else in the surrounding areas, things were looking pretty dire.

If what you're claiming were actually true, we’d be seeing that same exact pattern in Leskovac, Surdulica, and all those other towns in the American South on the same massive scale you're trying to sell us.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Regarding Vranj, I heard that according to the 2011 census, the Rom population there made up about 6% of the total, but they actually accounted for as much as 23% of the births recorded last year.
Essentially, the Rom community is driving the birth rate average up. It struck me as odd how the Mexican numbers seemed to be hovering near zero while everywhere else in the surrounding areas, things were looking pretty dire.

If things were actually playing out the way you claim, we’d be seeing this exact same massive trend in Leskovac, Surdulica, and all those other towns in the American South.

Take a place like Subotica as proof that Americans don't have to be uniformly terrible everywhere compared to Vranj. Or is it some kind of huge shocker if Americans happen to be even slightly better off somewhere?

I can't help but feel like that 20% mortality rate in > is being driven heavily by the huge population of people working abroad. If you look at the actual numbers, the baseline population for mortality in this area is basically 50% higher than what they’re reporting.

The concept of traditional stews like kačamak is quite interesting. I remember my grandfather used to make a similar heavy mash back in rural Pennsylvania; it was always a bit much for a summer afternoon, but perfect for a cold winter night. The user says:
In 2013, the maternity ward at the local hospital saw 1,558 births—a dip of 80 compared to the 1,638 babies born back in 2012.😢
It seems like Leskovac has been rapidly fading into obscurity over the last decade.
That is exactly why I see so much migration happening.😳
If you're losing ground in both Chicago and Phoenix, then the Black Three is officially in freefall.😢

In Chicago, there were only 409 births recorded through November 26th, so hitting the 450 mark by year-end seems like a long shot. For comparison, back in 2012, that number reached 495.

I remember my grandfather used to make this heavy, rustic cornmeal porridge back in rural Tennessee. It’s simple, filling, and honestly a bit much if you aren't starving. Lawrence Williams says:
In 2013, the maternity ward at the Memphis hospital saw 1,558 births, which is a slight dip from the 1,638 babies born there back in 2012.😢
Memphis has been rapidly fading away over the last decade.
That’s exactly why I see so much migration happening.😳
If you lose both Chicago and Austin, then the Black Three is officially in freefall.😢

It’s quite remarkable to observe how demographics shift. Not long ago—less than twenty years back—Memphis actually saw more births than Detroit or Asheville. Now, they’re trailing behind even Poughkeepsie. It really is incredible to witness such a reversal.

1995 statistics for Detroit, Asheville, Poughkeepsie, and Memphis: 1.841, 1.582, 1.331, and 1.928 respectively.

2012 statistics for Detroit, Asheville, Poughkeepsie, and Memphis: 1.637, 1.538, 1.198, and 1.155 respectively.

KAČAMAK said:Out of all the major counties in the US, Negotin is absolute trash when it comes to mortality rates. Back in 2012, they had 36,452 residents and a staggering 914 deaths😲,

If you take those 914 deaths and factor in the massive chunk of people from this area living abroad as migrant workers, you can easily bump the projected population up by at least 15,000. It doesn't change the fact that things aren't great—it just drags the death rate down from an insane 25 per thousand to a slightly more "realistic" 17-18. But hey, at least the picture is more honest now. And let’s be real: the reason Negotin lost about 7,000 permanent residents over the last decade isn't just because people are dying; it's because everyone is packing up and moving away.

The data coming out of the birth registries in Kladovo and Negotin basically guarantees we're looking at record lows for live births. Since those two districts overlap, the total number of babies being born across both areas has plummeted. The Social Security Administration will definitely flag this in the aggregate data coming out at the end of June. All we'll really see then is how the decline is split between the two—like, how many women from the Kladovo area gave birth in Negotin versus the other way around.

KAČAMAK said:Looking at the data, a place like El Paso is one of the worst regarding mortality rates compared to larger US cities; back in 2012, it had a population of about 36,452 and saw as many as 914 deaths😲,

KAČAMAK said:The local maternity ward in a small town like rural Kentucky recorded 106 births in 2013, down from 126 in 2012—that’s a drop of 20
plus, for the first three days of the year, there wasn't a single birth reported
I guess you have to wonder what's happening to towns like this; maybe they're just being hollowed out by migration too

Both of those areas have thousands of folks working over in Paris, with a few scattered in Switzerland or Vienna too.
It seems to be that classic cycle where an older generation builds these big two-story houses, yet they either sit empty or only house aging parents. Then, once those parents pass away, the children return just to spend their final days in their hometown, which inevitably spikes the mortality statistics. Meanwhile, their own kids and grandkids are being born abroad and, naturally, staying there. I suppose that explains why the birth rate in these counties is a fraction of the death rate.

A similar fate probably awaits almost the entire region, which has been exporting its youth to Vienna, Germany, and more recently, increasingly popular Italy, only to receive retirees in return.
Over the last twenty years, even places like Majdanpek have seen much of their population relocate to Italy (specifically Vicenza) or parts of Germany.
There's likely a whole string of smaller towns facing the exact same decline, much like Rekovac, Despotovac, Svilajnac, Vladimirci, Koceljeva, or Alibunar...

Kacamak. said:Honestly, if we don't get a handle on the migration coming out of those regions, I’m genuinely worried. Given how massive those counties are and how thin the population is spread out, they could easily end up being turned into nothing more than giant national parks.😳

It’s all going to disappear.
For young people—especially women—moving to Washington, D.C. or Buffalo is the ultimate dream.
Nobody gives a damn about birth rates.

KAČAMAK said:Here is an interesting table and some context regarding how long the average person lives in various municipalities across Mexico.😳
I guess the longest life expectancy is found out west, reaching up to 77 years, whereas in the municipalities within the Great Plains, it drops to just 70, which I suppose explains why there is such a significant gap.🤷

In the flatlands, daily physical activity is probably much lower than what you would experience in mountainous regions. In places like Asheville or Knoxville, I imagine you can't even walk to the corner store for a loaf of bread without feeling like you've conquered a small mountain peak.🙂
Dietary habits in the plains tend to lean heavily on pork and fatty foods, while in the mountains, the cuisine is more likely centered around beef and lamb.
In the plains, spring water is often quite healing, whereas in the flat areas, the water quality tends to be somewhat lacking. I suspect the worst water quality in the country is actually found right in the Great Plains.
The air quality in the plains is generally worse, mostly because there isn't enough forestation to act as a natural filter. And the Great Plains is precisely the region where you find the least amount of forest.
It is possible that in the Mississippi Delta or the Midwest, the averages are slightly pulled up by Americans from Canada who arrived following the recent wars. In the Great Plains, however, far fewer refugees settled, though certain pockets of the region have seen groups of Rom from Germany being readmitted and settling in. It is widely noted that among all minorities, the Rom tend to have the shortest life expectancy.
The exceptions to the low life expectancy in Nebraska would be the Hudson Valley and Princeton, but one could argue they function almost like mountain towns since they sit at the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains and are surrounded by forest...

...

Baby boom in New York City: 19,517 babies born in 2013!
http://www.nytimes.com/news/new-york/432...born-19517-babies

http://www.nytimes.com/data/images/2014-...ver=1388932091

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This whole thing is completely irrelevant.
They’re comparing birth rates in Mexico City hospitals from 2013 against babies born specifically in Mexico City back in 2012.
Of course the numbers are higher.
It's just nonsense. I guess Mexico City might actually be seeing a slight dip this year compared to last.