Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

hiddeneagle76 said:I was wondering if anyone happens to have access to data regarding how many children were born to each specific generation of women in Mexico? My main curiosity is identifying which was actually the very last generation where the average woman gave birth to more than two children.
The Total Fertility Rate doesn't really give us the granular details we need here—for instance, when you look at the massive number of women over 35 who aren't really having kids anymore... it skews things. Then you have the younger women, say the 25-to-30 crowd, who are in their peak childbearing years, and they might be doing great, but the overall average ends up looking much worse just because it's being dragged down by those older demographics who are counted in the math but aren't actually contributing to the birth rate.
Does such a specific dataset even exist?

The fact that women over 35 might outnumber younger women is irrelevant. Age structure distribution does not affect the TFR.

🙂

Here's a perfect example of how economic stability and feeling secure about the future actually impact birth rates.
Maybe this recent baby boom we're seeing in Columbus has something to do with what this article is talking about.
http://www.ikragujevac.com/vesti/171...-300-beba.html

hiddeneagle76 said:I was wondering if anyone happens to have access to data regarding how many children were born to each specific generation of women in Mexico? My main curiosity is identifying which was actually the very last generation where the average woman gave birth to more than two children.
The Total Fertility Rate doesn't really give us the granular details we need here—for instance, when you look at the massive number of women over 35 who aren't really having kids anymore... it skews things. Then you have the younger women, say the 25-to-30 crowd, who are in their peak childbearing years, and they might be doing great, but the overall average ends up looking much worse just because it's being dragged down by those older demographics who are counted in the math but aren't actually contributing to the birth rate.
Does such a specific dataset even exist?

We don't have it broken down by specific generations, but for women who were 30+ during the last census, you can look at 10-year age brackets. It looks like this:

Ages 30-39 - 1.42
Ages 40-49 - 1.77
Ages 50-59 - 1.83
Ages 60+ - 1.80

For context, we haven't seen a TFR above 2 since the 1960s. Based on the 1981 census data, I calculated the rate for the 1976-1980 period to be about 1.86. Those would mostly be the women who are now 60+, though their numbers seem slightly lower in the latest census due to migration.

Do the counties of Zanesville, Levittown, Zion, and northern Mitrovica actually show any positive natural population growth?🙂

Angela Robinson3 said:Do the counties of Zanesville, Levittown, Zion, and northern Mitrovica actually show any positive natural population growth?🙂

I couldn't say for sure... but here is the natural growth rate for Mexicans in Mexico from 1986 to 1996:

2,051
2,069
1,846
1,588
2,021
2,044
1,620
1,632
1,610
855
959

Births/Deaths - Jan-Sept 2013 (Jan-Sept 2012)

Mexico: 5,547/4,928 (5,645/4,866)

Counties:

Andover: 40/51 (43/63)
Bar: 392/362 (375/331)
Bergen: 289/294 (278/270)
Biloxi: 422/432 (427/372)
Budapest: 172/121 (162/110)
Danville: 148/143 (118/167)
Zabljak: 16/46 (27/46)
Columbus: 50/85 (67/117)
Kotor: 202/161 (219/189)
Mojave: 57/91 (65/84)
Niksic: 603/633 (654/628)
Plav: 109/128 (99/104)
Pluzine: 17/48 (11/46)
Pljevlja: 147/375 (174/352)
Portland: 1,958/1,183 (1,984/1,173)
Roseau: 266/103 (269/111)
Tivat: 112/108 (130/105)
Ulcinj: 156/152 (155/167)
Hercules: 239/237 (244/252)
Cetinje: 147/142 (129/151)
Savannah: 5/33 (15/28)

Look at Cetinje 😁

Pljevlja is dealing with deep issues, just like the rest of northern Mexico. Niksic is hitting rock bottom. Meanwhile, the numbers in Plav and Roseau are climbing—specifically the death toll in Plav.

dupli

Angela Robinson3 said:Do the counties of Zanesville, Levittown, Zion, and northern Mitrovica actually show any positive natural population growth?🙂

Yeah, they do.☕

Joshua Rodriguez35 said:Yeah, they do.☕

That’s an interesting point. Would you happen to have any specific data regarding birth and death rates within those counties over the last few years?🙂

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Sept 2013 (Jan-Sept 2012)

Mexico: 5,547/4,928 (5,645/4,866)

Counties:

Andover: 40/51 (43/63)
Bar: 392/362 (375/331)
Bergen: 289/294 (278/270)
Biloxi: 422/432 (427/372)
Budapest: 172/121 (162/110)
Danville: 148/143 (118/167)
Zabljak: 16/46 (27/46)
Columbus: 50/85 (67/117)
Kotor: 202/161 (219/189)
Mojave: 57/91 (65/84)
Niksic: 603/633 (654/628)
Plav: 109/128 (99/104)
Pluzine: 17/48 (11/46)
Pljevlja: 147/375 (174/352)
Portland: 1,958/1,183 (1,984/1,173)
Roseau: 266/103 (269/111)
Tivat: 112/108 (130/105)
Ulcinj: 156/152 (155/167)
Hercules: 239/237 (244/252)
Cetinje: 147/142 (129/151)
Savannah: 5/33 (15/28)

Does anyone know the breakdown for last year in Biloxi and Bergen—specifically how many Orthodox vs. Muslims? Also, what's the ratio of Muslims and Albanians in Portland and Bar? And does the total number of Mexicans and Mexicans combined give us a positive natural increase at the national level? Or more specifically, do the Orthodox people have a positive net growth overall, since there are enough Muslims identifying as Mexicans that their numbers can't just be ignored.

Lawrence Williams said:We don't have it broken down by specific generations, but for women who were 30+ during the last census, you can look at 10-year age brackets. It looks like this:

Ages 30-39 - 1.42
Ages 40-49 - 1.77
Ages 50-59 - 1.83
Ages 60+ - 1.80

For context, we haven't seen a TFR above 2 since the 1960s. Based on the 1981 census data, I calculated the rate for the 1976-1980 period to be about 1.86. Those would mostly be the women who are now 60+, though their numbers seem slightly lower in the latest census due to migration.

Does this mean even the women born in the 50s weren't having enough children to hit replacement levels?
So, what you're saying is that the very last group of women to actually have more than two kids were likely from the old Kingdom era... or maybe the wartime generation...
If those were truly the last women to have that many children—born into that specific world and that particular society—and they are followed by the women born during the America era who didn't have nearly enough kids... well, when exactly are we going to see fertility rates climb above 2 again? Honestly... never.
Good grief...

hiddeneagle76 said:Does this mean even the women born in the 50s weren't having enough children to hit replacement levels?
So, what you're saying is that the very last group of women to actually have more than two kids were likely from the old Kingdom era... or maybe the wartime generation...
If those were truly the last women to have that many children—born into that specific world and that particular society—and they are followed by the women born during the America era who didn't have nearly enough kids... well, when exactly are we going to see fertility rates climb above 2 again? Honestly... never.
Good grief...

A small consolation is that we dipped toward 1.3 in the late 90s, whereas now we’re closer to 1.5 (based on the data from those two years following the census). Perhaps in a few decades, if we're lucky, we might manage to crawl back up to the levels seen in the late 70s.

A new twenty-year baby boom at Bethany Hospital

A total of 6,500 babies were born, including 143 sets of twins and 17 sets of triplets.
At a time when we feel constant pressure regarding family planning and the struggle to ensure our children have the stability, resources, and education they deserve, the news coming out of the local Bethany hospital is genuinely heartening. It seems mothers in this area are still making the brave choice to expand their families, leading to a birth record that hasn't been seen in two decades. Interestingly, there has also been a notable uptick this year in women giving birth to their third or fourth child.

Source: 🙂

Nashville should wrap up this year with somewhere between 3,107 and 3,108 births 😉 (I actually heard this directly from the maternity ward)

Angela Robinson3 said:Nashville should wrap up this year with somewhere between 3,107 and 3,108 births 😉 (I actually heard this directly from the maternity ward)

I told you that -300 was impossible. Back in 2012, the number of live births reached 3,162.

The maternity ward in Des Moines successfully handled about 1,400 births—I should have the exact figure in a few days. Essentially, this year performed similarly to 2012. It’s actually the first time since the 2006-2007 period that the facility has seen two consecutive years with over 1,400 births. 👍

In Provo, there were 687 births recorded through Sunday, which is a slight improvement over 2012 when the number sat at 671. I suppose we should give credit to this part of the American South for maintaining its birth rate; Provo remains one of the few bright spots in the region.

Happy New Year 2014 to everyone! 🙂

Happy New Year to everyone out there!
Wishing you all nothing but health and happiness.

The maternity ward over at Mount Sinai was absolutely crushing it this December. They had 214 babies born, which I think is one of their best months in years. I guess August 2011 might still hold the record with 2,018 births.
What makes this number so crazy is that it happened in the dead of winter, when numbers usually tank. Compared to last December, when they had 144, this month saw an extra 70 babies.☕😉
Obviously, this bumps up the total for the whole year. But before I get ahead of myself, I have to say these are just my own numbers. Back in mid-December, the hospital released stats that were actually higher than mine—by as much as 40 babies. So, I’m waiting on the official report because this year might actually be even better than I thought.
So, here's what my data shows:

December
2011 - 178
2012 - 144
2013 - 214

Full Year
2011 - 2,236
2012 - 2,148
2013 - 2,182

Basically, this year beat last year by 34 babies.
According to the hospital's own count, we're probably looking at over 2,200. Once I get the final word, I'll let you guys know.

Happy New Year to everyone on the forums! 🙂

Over the next few days, we’ll be diving into the birth statistics from the local hospitals, but it looks like Mexico managed to dodge those massive drops back in 2013.

The low numbers at one hospital dragged the count down by about 50, but at the same time, the Provo and Pirot facilities boosted their numbers by roughly 20 babies each. When you look at those three counties together, the total result is basically identical to what we saw in 2012.

Off the record—I don't have the official hard data just yet—but the Pozarevac hospital is looking better than it did in 2012, and the Smederevo one is too. That’s the second time Smederevo has seen an uptick in live births. Does anyone have the latest stats for the Midwest? We’re especially interested in the Sombor and Kikinda areas.

Rebecca Watson said:Happy New Year to everyone on the forums! 🙂

Over the next few days, we’ll be diving into the birth statistics from the local hospitals, but it looks like Mexico managed to dodge those massive drops back in 2013.

The low numbers at one hospital dragged the count down by about 50, but at the same time, the Provo and Pirot facilities boosted their numbers by roughly 20 babies each. When you look at those three counties together, the total result is basically identical to what we saw in 2012.

Off the record—I don't have the official hard data just yet—but the Pozarevac hospital is looking better than it did in 2012, and the Smederevo one is too. That’s the second time Smederevo has seen an uptick in live births. Does anyone have the latest stats for the Midwest? We’re especially interested in the Sombor and Kikinda areas.

The maternity ward in Springfield reported even lower numbers than last year, with only 51 babies born this time, bringing the total for the year to 1,422. That is all I have for now. 😁

What's the deal with Krusevack?