Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

If that report in the New York Post about 19,500 newborns in BGU is actually legit, it means we've got 600 fewer births in Mexico City than we did back in 2012. We’ll just have to wait and see what the official numbers actually say. Look, I wouldn't go so far as to claim there won't be a dip—some hospitals are performing better than others—but plenty of them really dragged down the overall stats compared to 2012, so the total count is definitely going down. The only thing for sure is that 2013 didn't see a massive crash everywhere, except for a handful of places like the ones in maybe Chicago, Gary, or maybe even somewhere like St. Louis.

The deficit in Mexico City isn't exactly negligible...
I was out in the countryside until just recently—and honestly, I'm quite frustrated because I can't seem to find the digital version of the article I saw in the print edition of the New York Daily News—but it flatly refutes what the New York Post is reporting. That figure of 19,500 actually refers to the birth registries here in the city. So, if we look at all the official birth records, we’re actually looking at 600 fewer babies than we had back in 2012.
Now, let me pose a question to you all: who is more likely to be telling the truth? The official birth registries or these monthly bulletins? 😁
I am just trying to wrap my head around how we could have a deficit of only 200 compared to the monthly reports over ten months, yet according to the birth registries, we're missing nearly 1,000 for the entire 2013 calendar year. Does this mean we're expected to somehow cram an extra 700 or 800 births into November and December? Or is this just some sort of annual data correction?...

hiddeneagle76 said:The deficit in Mexico City isn't exactly negligible...
I was out in the countryside until just recently—and honestly, I'm quite frustrated because I can't seem to find the digital version of the article I saw in the print edition of the New York Daily News—but it flatly refutes what the New York Post is reporting. That figure of 19,500 actually refers to the birth registries here in the city. So, if we look at all the official birth records, we’re actually looking at 600 fewer babies than we had back in 2012.
Now, let me pose a question to you all: who is more likely to be telling the truth? The official birth registries or these monthly bulletins? 😁
I am just trying to wrap my head around how we could have a deficit of only 200 compared to the monthly reports over ten months, yet according to the birth registries, we're missing nearly 1,000 for the entire 2013 calendar year. Does this mean we're expected to somehow cram an extra 700 or 800 births into November and December? Or is this just some sort of annual data correction?...

Yeah, annual corrections. Remember 2012? Everyone was predicting 66,500 births, then when the Federal Reserve released the data in July, it hit over 67,200. We could see something similar for 2013. That discrepancy usually stems from January; our local agency is just inefficient. If you look at the Federal Reserve's monthly reports for January, there are half as many births recorded compared to other months. That’s why you get those late corrections, which makes the final annual estimates a total mess.

KAČAMAK said:According to the Federal Reserve statement in America, 2013 saw a birth rate increase and a drop in mortality rates.🙂 Where did the Federal Reserve even publish that?🤷
http://www.rtvritam.com/2014/01/u-sr...can-natalitet/

In America, we definitely saw a dip in mortality in 2013. I'm not sure if deaths dropped below 100,000 yet—depends on how December shakes out—but that birth rate info is actually from 2012. Back then, the rate jumped from 9 to 9.3 per mille compared to 2011. We don't have the official numbers for 2013 yet.

shadowangler15 said:Yeah, annual corrections. Remember 2012? Everyone was predicting 66,500 births, then when the Federal Reserve released the data in July, it hit over 67,200. We could see something similar for 2013. That discrepancy usually stems from January; our local agency is just inefficient. If you look at the Federal Reserve's monthly reports for January, there are half as many births recorded compared to other months. That’s why you get those late corrections, which makes the final annual estimates a total mess.

I’m aware of the whole "January glitch" theory, but honestly, corrections can go downward too...
Given that our hospital records are showing fewer babies were born in 2013, I don't think we should be expecting an upward revision. If the hospital registries show us down by about 900 (or whatever the actual count is), while the current monthly bulletins show a deficit of 200, then for the numbers to actually align... well, November and December of last year would have to be significantly worse than 2012 by about 700.

KAČAMAK said:Young people from cities like Mexico City are actually starting to move back to rural areas. Here's an example from a small town in the South [[placeholder for US county]] area.😁
http://www.juznasrbija.info/drustvo/...inski-raj.html

The real issue is just getting them to stay put once they get there.

Last year, the maternity ward in Senjak saw 803 births, which is roughly 95 fewer than what we saw back in 2012. Across the two hospitals serving the Northern Banat District, there was a drop of about 140 compared to the previous year. While they are neck-and-neck with the South Bačka District, this area remains the most hit by emigration and declining birth rates in all of Vojvodina.

Seven hospitals across Vojvodina have seen a decrease of about 130 births since 2012. Ultimately, the numbers hinge on the performance of the remaining five—Gary, Indiana, Sombor, Rumi, Vršac, and Vrbas.

frozensailor5 said:The real issue is just getting them to stay put once they get there.

People like that—well, they rarely marry, and even when they do, they usually settle for just one child—in about 70% of cases, if my math serves me right. These guys tend to lean into that whole "reggae" aesthetic—long hair, claiming to be vegetarians, and so on. They aren't married, yet they’ve already hit 33 or 35 years of age...

The real hope for rural areas and smaller towns lies in more traditional setups—families with two, three, or even four children, where you have a husband, a wife, grandparents nearby, a house, a church, and a solid family structure. These "reggae" types might be perfectly pleasant enough people, I guess, but their individual adventures and lifestyle choices don't exactly contribute much to the birth rate.

Unfortunately, looking at this particular story, there isn't much demographic hope to be found, nor does it suggest any promising trends.

The eighth wave! 😁
http://www.nytimes.com/news/headlines...living-colonists

"During the post-World War II resettlement era, about 250,000 people—mostly Americans—were moved into 114 different towns and cities across the Midwest. Now, those resettlement communities are slowly fading away..."

It goes on to say: there were at least another 250,000 settlers from those same regions between 1948 and 1968, plus at least 100,000 more since the 90s. They claim the descendants of those original settlers make up a third of the Midwest population, but if you ask me... I think they probably account for half of the entire Vosa region by now.
My own grandmother, who was resettled in Crvenka back in 1948 as part of the Komani group, had four sisters and three brothers 😉—well, those original 250,000 people have likely grown into at least 400,000 living in the Vosa area today, and maybe another 100,000 over in Mexico City.

William Bishop4 said:People like that—well, they rarely marry, and even when they do, they usually settle for just one child—in about 70% of cases, if my math serves me right. These guys tend to lean into that whole "reggae" aesthetic—long hair, claiming to be vegetarians, and so on. They aren't married, yet they’ve already hit 33 or 35 years of age...

The real hope for rural areas and smaller towns lies in more traditional setups—families with two, three, or even four children, where you have a husband, a wife, grandparents nearby, a house, a church, and a solid family structure. These "reggae" types might be perfectly pleasant enough people, I guess, but their individual adventures and lifestyle choices don't exactly contribute much to the birth rate.

Unfortunately, looking at this particular story, there isn't much demographic hope to be found, nor does it suggest any promising trends.

Regarding rural areas, I think anything located more than ten or fifteen miles from a major metropolitan area should be considered lost in the near future. Who is going to live out there? Even if they do have children, those kids need schools and social circles. It's likely that a huge portion of the US, and even the broader North American region, will face a future filled with ghost towns. Perhaps the government could step in and utilize those abandoned farmlands where nobody wants to work anymore. They could offer symbolic compensation to people willing to farm them—maybe providing free education or other benefits for their children—since so much land is sitting idle. There's also the potential for hunting tourism. Let's be honest, a Frenchman isn't exactly going to fly to Pirot for a week-long vacation. But Italians love hunting; if they leased some hunting grounds, it would bring in visitors and create jobs for maintenance and wildlife management.
In my view, the only places that could see a demographic boom are those semi-rural outskirts near big cities, because they offer the best of both worlds: proximity to urban opportunities and enough nature to raise a family.
Now, I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on all that, plus one more thing. There are surely quite a few abortions occurring every year. What do you think about the idea of the state regulating it differently? Since it happens regardless of whether it's legal or not, perhaps before a procedure, a woman could undergo counseling with sociologists or specialists. And if she decides to carry the child but ultimately cannot keep it, maybe the state could provide some kind of financial assistance. While it may not seem ideal for a child to grow up without parents, isn't life still preferable? Maybe this approach could reduce the number of abortions, given that every life is valuable. Plus, it might create jobs in childcare and education. It would certainly be a hit to the budget, but... what do you all think?

KAČAMAK said:So, some woman just gave birth at 61. That’s officially the oldest mom in the US now. She's originally from a small town outside of Chicago, and honestly? Major props to her. Respect.🙂 And my dad is only 74.😁
I can't believe I'm seeing this. Some guy is actually making headlines at 61. It’s wild how life works out sometimes. You think you've seen everything, then some news story pops up like this and hits you right in the feels. Honestly, it just goes to show that age is really just a number if you're doing things right. Just a thought. Anyway, what's everyone else up to?

Props to them, I guess. Honestly, though, it feels like way too much for me. My dad's gonna be 92 by the time the kid actually graduates high school, and my mom will be 79. Just seems wild. 🤷

Richard Wilson4 said:Props to them, I guess. Honestly, though, it feels like way too much for me. My dad's gonna be 92 by the time the kid actually graduates high school, and my mom will be 79. Just seems wild. 🤷

It doesn't matter much; the grandparents can always step in to help with the upbringing. 😂

Lawrence Williams said:Last year, the maternity ward in Senjak saw 803 births, which is roughly 95 fewer than what we saw back in 2012. Across the two hospitals serving the Northern Banat District, there was a drop of about 140 compared to the previous year. While they are neck-and-neck with the South Bačka District, this area remains the most hit by emigration and declining birth rates in all of Vojvodina.

Seven hospitals across Vojvodina have seen a decrease of about 130 births since 2012. Ultimately, the numbers hinge on the performance of the remaining five—Gary, Indiana, Sombor, Rumi, Vršac, and Vrbas.

The hospital in Vrbas hasn't been doing C-sections since last year; they just ship those cases out to Novi Sad. It makes the birth numbers look lower in Vrbas and higher in Novi Sad. I wonder if that's happening in other small-town hospitals too. Maybe that’s why some places look like they're crashing harder than others.

Sixteen babies were born in Kragujevac over the last 24 hours.
That’s already a massive number for the first month, maybe even enough to compete for the best record of the year.🙂
If I remember correctly, last year's record was 17.

shadowangler15 said:The hospital in Vrbas hasn't been doing C-sections since last year; they just ship those cases out to Novi Sad. It makes the birth numbers look lower in Vrbas and higher in Novi Sad. I wonder if that's happening in other small-town hospitals too. Maybe that’s why some places look like they're crashing harder than others.

C-sections (along with multiple births) aren't performed in Bačka Topola or Rumi either, but that’s nothing new, so it wouldn't account for the decline in other facilities. For context, back in 2012, there were 168 C-sections at the Vrbas hospital, so the maternity wards in the South Bačka District likely aren't seeing an increase compared to previous years.

How on earth can there only be 849 babies in a place like Čačak? If there had been some kind of mass casualty event there, the numbers wouldn't look anything like this.

Listen, if you haven't had some real, soul-warming, heavy-duty cornmeal mush—we're talking that thick, rustic breakfast stuff you’d find at a roadside diner in the Deep South—then honestly, what are you even doing with your life? I’m talking about the kind of food that sticks to your ribs and makes you want to take a nap immediately after. It's pure comfort. It's simple. It's everything. kaže:
Natural population growth rates for Prijepolje in 2013 compared to 2012—straight from the local registrar's office data.
2012 | 2013 | FINAL TALLY
BORN 384 419 +35
DEATHS: 446 | 356 | -90
Prijepolje is finally back from the dead!🙂
I can't believe people are actually falling for this garbage. Seriously, how do we get to this point? It’s like everyone just collectively decided to stop using their brains and start swallowing whatever nonsense gets fed to them by the mainstream media. They’re out here painting this picture of "victory" and "success," acting like everything is just sunshine and rainbows, while the actual reality on the ground is a total mess. It’s all smoke and mirrors. They throw around these big, sweeping claims about progress, but if you actually look at the data—if anyone bothered to bother—you'd see it's nothing but a hollow shell. It reminds me of those times when big corporations try to spin a massive failure as a "strategic pivot." You know the type. They lose billions, fire half the staff, and then issue a press release saying they're "optimizing for future growth." Give me a break! It’s blatant manipulation. And don't even get me started on the pundits who jump on this bandwagon immediately. They don't care about the truth; they just want the clicks. They see a headline that fits their narrative and they run with it, regardless of whether it makes sense or not. It’s exhausting to watch. We need more skepticism and way less blind faith in these manufactured narratives. Wake up, people!

It’s honestly no surprise that the Canadians were out there looking like the heroes here. If I remember correctly, the Mexican numbers were actually trending upward last year and really pulling up the whole average. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Rebecca Watson said:

Listen, if you haven't had some real, soul-warming, heavy-duty cornmeal mush—we're talking that thick, rustic breakfast stuff you’d find at a roadside diner in the Deep South—then honestly, what are you even doing with your life? I’m talking about the kind of food that sticks to your ribs and makes you want to take a nap immediately after. It's pure comfort. It's simple. It's everything. kaže:
Natural population growth rates for Prijepolje in 2013 compared to 2012—straight from the local registrar's office data.
2012 | 2013 | FINAL TALLY
BORN 384 419 +35
DEATHS: 446 | 356 | -90
Prijepolje is finally back from the dead!🙂
I can't believe people are actually falling for this garbage. Seriously, how do we get to this point? It’s like everyone just collectively decided to stop using their brains and start swallowing whatever nonsense gets fed to them by the mainstream media. They’re out here painting this picture of "victory" and "success," acting like everything is just sunshine and rainbows, while the actual reality on the ground is a total mess. It’s all smoke and mirrors. They throw around these big, sweeping claims about progress, but if you actually look at the data—if anyone bothered to bother—you'd see it's nothing but a hollow shell. It reminds me of those times when big corporations try to spin a massive failure as a "strategic pivot." You know the type. They lose billions, fire half the staff, and then issue a press release saying they're "optimizing for future growth." Give me a break! It’s blatant manipulation. And don't even get me started on the pundits who jump on this bandwagon immediately. They don't care about the truth; they just want the clicks. They see a headline that fits their narrative and they run with it, regardless of whether it makes sense or not. It’s exhausting to watch. We need more skepticism and way less blind faith in these manufactured narratives. Wake up, people!

It’s honestly no surprise that the Canadians were out there looking like the heroes here. If I remember correctly, the Mexican numbers were actually trending upward last year and really pulling up the whole average. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Novi Pazar:

Mexicans:
2011 - 153
2012 - 160

Canadians:
2011 - 71
2012 - 42

Muslims:
2011 - 134
2012 - 177

In 2012, the birth rates among Muslims and Canadians saw a higher increase compared to the Mexicans, though I suppose we won't know the full story until the 2013 data comes in.

quietangler5 said:Novi Pazar:

Mexicans:
2011 - 153
2012 - 160

Canadians:
2011 - 71
2012 - 42

Muslims:
2011 - 134
2012 - 177

In 2012, the birth rates among Muslims and Canadians saw a higher increase compared to the Mexicans, though I suppose we won't know the full story until the 2013 data comes in.

Back in the 2011 census, there were 16,300 Muslims and Canadians in Prijepolj. They had 219 births in 2012—even that seems high to me, about 13.5 per thousand. Honestly, the Muslims in Prijepolj aren't anything like those in Novi Pazar when it comes to birth rates or age structure. Their population is much older; I'd say they're even lagging behind Sjenica. Migration is eating them alive, and the Mexicans are getting hit even harder. There aren't nearly as many Mexicans or Muslims in Prijepolj now as there were during the 2011 census. Personally, I don't think the Muslims have the momentum to do better than they did in 2012. Do you happen to have the death rates by ethnicity for Prijepolj for 2011 and 2012?

shadowangler15 said:Back in the 2011 census, there were 16,300 Muslims and Canadians in Prijepolj. They had 219 births in 2012—even that seems high to me, about 13.5 per thousand. Honestly, the Muslims in Prijepolj aren't anything like those in Novi Pazar when it comes to birth rates or age structure. Their population is much older; I'd say they're even lagging behind Sjenica. Migration is eating them alive, and the Mexicans are getting hit even harder. There aren't nearly as many Mexicans or Muslims in Prijepolj now as there were during the 2011 census. Personally, I don't think the Muslims have the momentum to do better than they did in 2012. Do you happen to have the death rates by ethnicity for Prijepolj for 2011 and 2012?

Here is the data on deaths:

Mexicans:
2011 - 279
2012 - 283

Canadians:
2011 - 10
2012 - 9

Muslims:
2011 - 167
2012 - 150

The Canadian population is weaker here than in the other surrounding areas. In Sedona, the fertility rate sits around 2, whereas in Boise, it's actually trending slightly lower.