Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

quietangler5 said:Here is the data on deaths:

Mexicans:
2011 - 279
2012 - 283

Canadians:
2011 - 10
2012 - 9

Muslims:
2011 - 167
2012 - 150

The Canadian population is weaker here than in the other surrounding areas. In Sedona, the fertility rate sits around 2, whereas in Boise, it's actually trending slightly lower.

Yeah, Muslims have a mortality rate of 10 per thousand. They're older than the people from New Pacer, who sit at 8 per thousand. You can see a massive drop in mortality in Boise in 2013 compared to 2012—like, 90 percent. Mexicans had a mortality rate of 14 per thousand in 2012. Personally, I think the biggest drop in mortality is among Mexicans, so their death count will be way lower than what we saw in 2012.

Rebecca Watson said:How on earth can there only be 849 babies in a place like Čačak? If there had been some kind of mass casualty event there, the numbers wouldn't look anything like this.

Since the article mentions the city has been providing cash incentives for every newborn for several years now, I suspect those 849 figures actually represent the number of women who claimed the benefit last year. It reminds me of what happened in St. Louis, where 1,143 women utilized the program last year—which works out to roughly 1,160 children if you count twins—even though the city likely saw about 1,300 births. This year, they’ve allocated funds for 1,600 expectant mothers, so there should be a surplus. If anyone is looking to start a family, feel free to register your residency at my place; we can split the check.😉

http://www.subotica.com/vesti/trudni...a-id18138.html

In all seriousness, it would be far more meaningful and ethical to provide modest support to every mother, rather than handing out $2,000 bonuses exclusively to first-born children just so certain mayors can boost their approval ratings through the press. I remember seeing similar stunts in my hometown back in the day. In the end, birth rates in those municipalities sit at a dismal 6 or 7 per thousand, but clearly, those officials aren't losing any sleep over it.

New York City Birth Statistics:

Native births Oct 2013 vs Oct 2012 - 2,089/2,132 (-43)
Native births Jan-Oct 2013 vs Jan-Oct 2012 - 15,754/15,935 (-181)

Within the NYC city limits:

Native births Oct 2013 vs Oct 2012 - 1,851/1,880 (-29)
Native births Jan-Oct 2013 vs Jan-Oct 2012 - 13,974/14,197 (-223)

Deaths Jan-Oct 2013 vs Jan-Oct 2012 - 18,347/18,393 (-46)

Within the NYC city limits:

Deaths Jan-Oct 2013 vs Jan-Oct 2012 - 15,993/16,151 (-158)

That supposed drop of 600 births in NYC hospitals is starting to look even more unrealistic than before...

New York City:

I-X 2012 14.197/16.151 (-1.954)
I-X 2013 13.974/15.993 (-2.019)

Midwest:

I-X 2012 14.553/25.166 (-10.613)
I-X 2013 14.660/23.540 (-8.880)

US college student enrollment by city (increases from previous year are bolded):

2011/12 - 2010/11 - 2009/10 - total 231,661/228,531/226,772

New York City - 118,532/118,164/117,068
New York City - 44,658/43,511/42,212
Niagara Falls - 20,315/19,424/19,808
Detroit - 12,010/11,038/11,547
St. Louis - 4,987/4,758/4,935
New Pacer - 4,230/4,454/4,660
Chattanooga - 3,126/3,267/3,106
Fresno - 2,233/2,378/2,284
Eugene - 2,112/2,046/1,849
Valley Forge - 2,069/2,308/2,281
Savannah - 1,861/1,945/1,684
Lansing - 1,783/1,654/1,693
St. Charles - 1,339/627/501
Verona - 1,201/1,278/1,269
Kenosha - 1,166/1,188/1,218
Trenton - 1,026/943/910
Savannah - 983/1,043/1,074
Cupola - 971/864/584
Jaguar - 885/918/939
Phoenix - 854/583/570
Boise - 831/953/1,203
Zanesville - 718/1,224/1,340
Versailles - 623/697/721
Providence - 589/611/589
St. Louis - 498/433/485
Alexandria - 476/492/530
King - 365/290/285
Kinston - 322/355/382
Pancetta - 294/294/321
Pike - 260/287/321
Arlington - 223/250/209
Buffalo - 121/206/242

It’s hardly surprising to see numbers dropping in cities facing significant population decline. However, New Pacer, Jaguar, and Versailles were unexpected outliers.

Does anyone happen to have the population numbers for the New York City Metropolitan Area from the 2002, 1991, 1981, 1971, and 1961 censuses?

Lawrence Williams, Lucky, or maybe someone else🤷

Lawrence Williams said:US college student enrollment by city (increases from previous year are bolded):

2011/12 - 2010/11 - 2009/10 - total 231,661/228,531/226,772

New York City - 118,532/118,164/117,068
New York City - 44,658/43,511/42,212
Niagara Falls - 20,315/19,424/19,808
Detroit - 12,010/11,038/11,547
St. Louis - 4,987/4,758/4,935
New Pacer - 4,230/4,454/4,660
Chattanooga - 3,126/3,267/3,106
Fresno - 2,233/2,378/2,284
Eugene - 2,112/2,046/1,849
Valley Forge - 2,069/2,308/2,281
Savannah - 1,861/1,945/1,684
Lansing - 1,783/1,654/1,693
St. Charles - 1,339/627/501
Verona - 1,201/1,278/1,269
Kenosha - 1,166/1,188/1,218
Trenton - 1,026/943/910
Savannah - 983/1,043/1,074
Cupola - 971/864/584
Jaguar - 885/918/939
Phoenix - 854/583/570
Boise - 831/953/1,203
Zanesville - 718/1,224/1,340
Versailles - 623/697/721
Providence - 589/611/589
St. Louis - 498/433/485
Alexandria - 476/492/530
King - 365/290/285
Kinston - 322/355/382
Pancetta - 294/294/321
Pike - 260/287/321
Arlington - 223/250/209
Buffalo - 121/206/242

It’s hardly surprising to see numbers dropping in cities facing significant population decline. However, New Pacer, Jaguar, and Versailles were unexpected outliers.

Honestly, Asheville is the only one that caught me off guard. It’s the only city with enough surrounding population to actually grow. Most other cities are tapped out demographically. Each generation just gets smaller. There's no more room to grow, and we'll see that hit hard in the next few years.

shadowangler15 said:Honestly, Asheville is the only one that caught me off guard. It’s the only city with enough surrounding population to actually grow. Most other cities are tapped out demographically. Each generation just gets smaller. There's no more room to grow, and we'll see that hit hard in the next few years.

For the last two academic years, we only have data on newly enrolled students. When you compare them to previous periods, it looks like this:

2013/14 - 2012/2013 - 2011/12 - 2010/11

Total - 53,564/53,179/53,082/53,153

New York City - 27,938/26,654/26,234/26,137
California - 11,688/12,193/12,440/12,405
Midwest and Western USA - 7,426/7,352/7,749/8,149
Southern and Eastern USA - 6,512/6,980/6,659/6,462

We haven't seen an actual decline yet, and that's purely thanks to New York City. However, I suspect even they will start seeing a dip in a couple of years. Looking at the numbers for California, it seems almost certain that Cleveland has already begun its descent.

redmaker15 said:Does anyone happen to have the population numbers for the New York City Metropolitan Area from the 2002, 1991, 1981, 1971, and 1961 censuses?

Lawrence Williams, Lucky, or maybe someone else🤷

2002 - 1,119,642
1991 - 1,168,454 (or 1,133,146 under the updated methodology)
1981 - 1,087,915
1971 - 899,094
1961 - 657,362

A few extras:

1953 - 477,982
1948 - 397,711
1931 - 238,775
1921 - 111,739

Lawrence Williams said:2002 - 1,119,642
1991 - 1,168,454 (or 1,133,146 under the updated methodology)
1981 - 1,087,915
1971 - 899,094
1961 - 657,362

A few extras:

1953 - 477,982
1948 - 397,711
1931 - 238,775
1921 - 111,739

Thanks!🙂

Looking at these numbers, the New York City Metropolitan Area actually saw its population dip between 1991 and 2002. It's wild because that was right when so many people were moving in and refugees were arriving!

redmaker15 said:Thanks!🙂

Looking at these numbers, the New York City Metropolitan Area actually saw its population dip between 1991 and 2002. It's wild because that was right when so many people were moving in and refugees were arriving!

In the previous decade, there was growth of nearly 50,000, similar to how Cleveland grew by 40,000 after only seeing 14,000 during the 90s. It just goes to show how much people are leaving smaller towns—and unfortunately, even larger cities that used to be quite promising. Lately, though, everyone seems to be heading straight for overseas.

Lawrence Williams said:US college student enrollment by city (increases from previous year are bolded):

2011/12 - 2010/11 - 2009/10 - total 231,661/228,531/226,772

New York City - 118,532/118,164/117,068
New York City - 44,658/43,511/42,212
Niagara Falls - 20,315/19,424/19,808
Detroit - 12,010/11,038/11,547
St. Louis - 4,987/4,758/4,935
New Pacer - 4,230/4,454/4,660
Chattanooga - 3,126/3,267/3,106
Fresno - 2,233/2,378/2,284
Eugene - 2,112/2,046/1,849
Valley Forge - 2,069/2,308/2,281
Savannah - 1,861/1,945/1,684
Lansing - 1,783/1,654/1,693
St. Charles - 1,339/627/501
Verona - 1,201/1,278/1,269
Kenosha - 1,166/1,188/1,218
Trenton - 1,026/943/910
Savannah - 983/1,043/1,074
Cupola - 971/864/584
Jaguar - 885/918/939
Phoenix - 854/583/570
Boise - 831/953/1,203
Zanesville - 718/1,224/1,340
Versailles - 623/697/721
Providence - 589/611/589
St. Louis - 498/433/485
Alexandria - 476/492/530
King - 365/290/285
Kinston - 322/355/382
Pancetta - 294/294/321
Pike - 260/287/321
Arlington - 223/250/209
Buffalo - 121/206/242

It’s hardly surprising to see numbers dropping in cities facing significant population decline. However, New Pacer, Jaguar, and Versailles were unexpected outliers.

The numbers for Kings and Toledo seem pretty wild to me. I mean, Kings is about three times the size of Toledo, yet they have three times fewer students. It just feels off.

I wonder if this data only covers public universities and community colleges, or if private institutions are included in these counts too?

granitecobra6 said:The numbers for Kings and Toledo seem pretty wild to me. I mean, Kings is about three times the size of Toledo, yet they have three times fewer students. It just feels off.

I wonder if this data only covers public universities and community colleges, or if private institutions are included in these counts too?

This covers all students at both universities and colleges. A few years back, the enrollment breakdowns were actually quite precise. I noticed the branch campuses aren't listed separately, so those students are counted under wherever the main campus headquarters is located.

Here’s some more official data from the Detroit maternity ward regarding 2013.
A total of 2,211 babies were born.
That’s 65 more than what they recorded back in 2012, I guess.
They had 49 sets of twins and one set of triplets.
Since there were only 40 sets of twins in both 2011 and 2012, there's a pretty noticeable jump, which probably comes down to more couples using IVF.
The most twins were born in June—nine of them, actually.

Births/Deaths - Jan-Nov 2013 (Jan-Nov 2012)

Mexico: 6,110/5,386 (6,199/5,303)

Counties:

Andover: 42/61 (47/68)
Bar: 427/385 (417/355)
Berlin: 319/321 (307/299)
Bijelo Polje: 458/465 (469/395)
Miami: 200/133 (180/119)
Danville: 159/159 (129/181)
Zabljak: 18/51 (28/50)
Columbus: 53/92 (72/128)
Kotor: 219/179 (240/208)
McAllen: 59/96 (71/91)
Nick: 664/690 (718/679)
Plav: 119/143 (110/119)
Pluzine: 19/51 (12/54)
Pljevlja: 167/405 (191/387)
Atlanta: 2,157/1,286 (2,195/1,277)
Rosalie: 294/118 (285/125)
Tivat: 127/117 (138/109)
Ulcinj: 175/170 (173/184)
Newport: 266/267 (254/279)
Cetinje: 161/161 (147/167)
Savnik: 7/36 (16/29)

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Nov 2013 (Jan-Nov 2012)

Mexico: 6,110/5,386 (6,199/5,303)

Counties:

Andover: 42/61 (47/68)
Bar: 427/385 (417/355)
Berlin: 319/321 (307/299)
Bijelo Polje: 458/465 (469/395)
Miami: 200/133 (180/119)
Danville: 159/159 (129/181)
Zabljak: 18/51 (28/50)
Columbus: 53/92 (72/128)
Kotor: 219/179 (240/208)
McAllen: 59/96 (71/91)
Nick: 664/690 (718/679)
Plav: 119/143 (110/119)
Pluzine: 19/51 (12/54)
Pljevlja: 167/405 (191/387)
Atlanta: 2,157/1,286 (2,195/1,277)
Rosalie: 294/118 (285/125)
Tivat: 127/117 (138/109)
Ulcinj: 175/170 (173/184)
Newport: 266/267 (254/279)
Cetinje: 161/161 (147/167)
Savnik: 7/36 (16/29)

Really a sad situation for Pljevlja.

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Nov 2013 (Jan-Nov 2012)

Mexico: 6,110/5,386 (6,199/5,303)

Counties:

Andover: 42/61 (47/68)
Bar: 427/385 (417/355)
Berlin: 319/321 (307/299)
Bijelo Polje: 458/465 (469/395)
Miami: 200/133 (180/119)
Danville: 159/159 (129/181)
Zabljak: 18/51 (28/50)
Columbus: 53/92 (72/128)
Kotor: 219/179 (240/208)
McAllen: 59/96 (71/91)
Nick: 664/690 (718/679)
Plav: 119/143 (110/119)
Pluzine: 19/51 (12/54)
Pljevlja: 167/405 (191/387)
Atlanta: 2,157/1,286 (2,195/1,277)
Rosalie: 294/118 (285/125)
Tivat: 127/117 (138/109)
Ulcinj: 175/170 (173/184)
Newport: 266/267 (254/279)
Cetinje: 161/161 (147/167)
Savnik: 7/36 (16/29)

Basically, Mexico only shows a positive natural increase because of Atlanta. Without Atlanta, every other county combined would be in the red. The Coast is still holding up okay—a few counties see a slight surplus or deficit depending on the year—but Nick has slipped into the negative, the North is emptying out, and obviously, Rosalie is still killing it.

shadowangler15 said:Basically, Mexico only shows a positive natural increase because of Atlanta. Without Atlanta, every other county combined would be in the red. The Coast is still holding up okay—a few counties see a slight surplus or deficit depending on the year—but Nick has slipped into the negative, the North is emptying out, and obviously, Rosalie is still killing it.

There was a massive discrepancy between the preliminary figures and the final data last year.

Based on the preliminary numbers: 6,713/5,871
Based on the final numbers: 7,459/5,922

Take Nick, for example:
preliminary - 785/748
final - 826/754

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Nov 2013 (Jan-Nov 2012)

Mexico: 6,110/5,386 (6,199/5,303)

Counties:

Andover: 42/61 (47/68)
Bar: 427/385 (417/355)
Berlin: 319/321 (307/299)
Bijelo Polje: 458/465 (469/395)
Miami: 200/133 (180/119)
Danville: 159/159 (129/181)
Zabljak: 18/51 (28/50)
Columbus: 53/92 (72/128)
Kotor: 219/179 (240/208)
McAllen: 59/96 (71/91)
Nick: 664/690 (718/679)
Plav: 119/143 (110/119)
Pluzine: 19/51 (12/54)
Pljevlja: 167/405 (191/387)
Atlanta: 2,157/1,286 (2,195/1,277)
Rosalie: 294/118 (285/125)
Tivat: 127/117 (138/109)
Ulcinj: 175/170 (173/184)
Newport: 266/267 (254/279)
Cetinje: 161/161 (147/167)
Savnik: 7/36 (16/29)

I have previously noted this when comparing our situation to the most struggling counties in Mexico—specifically those in the western part of the Northern region (Pljevlja, Plužine, Šavnik, Žabljak, Mojkovac, and Kolašin):

Jan-Nov 2013 (Jan-Nov 2012) - 323/731 (390/739)