Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Justin Hernandez11 said:In 2013, there were 67,253 babies born in Mexico.🙂

The numbers were significantly higher back in 2012. 😁

Justin Hernandez11 said:In 2013, there were 67,253 babies born in Mexico.🙂

And we need at least 100,000 just to break even... man, what a disaster.😢

Lawrence Williams said:The numbers were significantly higher back in 2012. 😁

Anyone who does that is just asking for trouble.🙂😉

So, looking at those preliminary monthly reports we have... it seems like there were 65,962 live births and 100,257 deaths.
I can't help but wonder—how much do those final adjustments actually swing the death toll? I mean, if someone is tracking this closely, how big are the fluctuations? And honestly, when does the final data actually get released? I always seem to forget 🤷 (though I don't think I'll 😁 right now).

hiddeneagle76 said:So, looking at those preliminary monthly reports we have... it seems like there were 65,962 live births and 100,257 deaths.
I can't help but wonder—how much do those final adjustments actually swing the death toll? I mean, if someone is tracking this closely, how big are the fluctuations? And honestly, when does the final data actually get released? I always seem to forget 🤷 (though I don't think I'll 😁 right now).

Methodological shifts in preliminary reporting can cause significant fluctuations, sometimes swinging the numbers by several hundred in either direction. We should see the finalized data on June 30th.

A drop of 1,000 to 1,500 tells us that this downward trend is just barreling along year after year with absolutely no sign of turning around! The retiree population is ballooning while our young people are all packing up to move abroad, and we've seen the workforce plummet from 2,000,000 down to just 1,700,000. It’s a structural disaster that simply isn't sustainable! Honestly, the only thing that might shake things up would be if a fanatic group like Door took over; they'd probably try to impose some semi-medieval lifestyle based on an Orthodox Jew model—forcing everyone back to rural farms and pushing families to have five kids each—but let's face it, that's highly unlikely to happen.

Jamie Fox60 said:A drop of 1,000 to 1,500 tells us that this downward trend is just barreling along year after year with absolutely no sign of turning around! The retiree population is ballooning while our young people are all packing up to move abroad, and we've seen the workforce plummet from 2,000,000 down to just 1,700,000. It’s a structural disaster that simply isn't sustainable! Honestly, the only thing that might shake things up would be if a fanatic group like Door took over; they'd probably try to impose some semi-medieval lifestyle based on an Orthodox Jew model—forcing everyone back to rural farms and pushing families to have five kids each—but let's face it, that's highly unlikely to happen.

I find it hard to believe the decline will be less than 1,000 babies in 2013 compared to 2012. Based on a sample of 35 out of the 57 maternity wards in the US, we're already looking at a deficit of 580 babies. Now, those remaining 22 wards we haven't processed yet are mostly smaller facilities, so I don't expect them to show a drop much larger than 1,000 babies.😳
As for moving back to rural areas, that's actually been happening over the last few years. Between 2006 and 2008, New York City saw a massive influx of about 25,000 to 30,000 people, but by 2012 that dropped to around 6,200, and I doubt it cleared 5,000 in 2013.
We're in bad shape. But I think we can stabilize around 6 million by 2031 and finally start fighting back. We'll see what happens, though. Nothing changes overnight.😳

Here’s some depressing news out of the Cleveland maternity ward:😢
In just the first three months of 2014, only 17 babies were born.
Last year, the Cleveland hospital saw 106 births, down from 126 back in 2012. What on earth is happening in this town? Let's look at the numbers.😳
Population in 2012: 20,416
Average age in 2012: 47 years old
Ages 0-17: 14%
Ages 18-64: 61%
Ages 65+: 25%
Births vs. Deaths in 2012:
147 births / 405 deaths — a deficit of 258
Net migration (people moving in vs. out):
2010: -69
2011: -17
2012: -16
It looks like the main reason for this birth rate collapse is pretty obvious: this is an incredibly old community.😳

Justin Hernandez11 said:Here’s some depressing news out of the Cleveland maternity ward:😢
In just the first three months of 2014, only 17 babies were born.
Last year, the Cleveland hospital saw 106 births, down from 126 back in 2012. What on earth is happening in this town? Let's look at the numbers.😳
Population in 2012: 20,416
Average age in 2012: 47 years old
Ages 0-17: 14%
Ages 18-64: 61%
Ages 65+: 25%
Births vs. Deaths in 2012:
147 births / 405 deaths — a deficit of 258
Net migration (people moving in vs. out):
2010: -69
2011: -17
2012: -16
It looks like the main reason for this birth rate collapse is pretty obvious: this is an incredibly old community.😳

Honestly, this data for Cleveland shouldn't surprise anyone. Since 1992, the US has been stuck in a deficit, but if I recall correctly, that eastern part of the country—including Cleveland—has been sitting at zero since before World War II. Correct me if I'm wrong on that one.

It’s such a shame about Cleveland. I spent some time at those beaches once—they're absolutely stunning, honestly feel just like the ocean. It’s a beautiful area, but it looks like it’s really struggling right now. We should probably look into relocating people from New York City toward the South or East of the country.🙂
The Mexico Grand Plaza in Cleveland
http://sphotos-h.ak.fbcdn.net/hphoto..._4878156_n.jpg
http://i1051.photobucket.com/albums/...7_520990_n.jpg

Justin Hernandez11 said:I find it hard to believe the decline will be less than 1,000 babies in 2013 compared to 2012. Based on a sample of 35 out of the 57 maternity wards in the US, we're already looking at a deficit of 580 babies. Now, those remaining 22 wards we haven't processed yet are mostly smaller facilities, so I don't expect them to show a drop much larger than 1,000 babies.😳
As for moving back to rural areas, that's actually been happening over the last few years. Between 2006 and 2008, New York City saw a massive influx of about 25,000 to 30,000 people, but by 2012 that dropped to around 6,200, and I doubt it cleared 5,000 in 2013.
We're in bad shape. But I think we can stabilize around 6 million by 2031 and finally start fighting back. We'll see what happens, though. Nothing changes overnight.😳

If we actually start putting in the work right this second—and I mean *now* (!)—the numbers would look like this: a population of 685,000 in 2021, hitting 6.4 million by 2031, and only reaching 6 million by 2041... which is really the first moment we'd even have a fighting chance at actual growth.
Why 2041, you ask? Well, because that absolute rock-bottom minimum of just 65,000 births from those previous 2.3 years won't even start translating into new parents until the late 30s...
And until we get there, we have to play a double game—fighting against a shrinking pool of potential parents while simultaneously trying to boost fertility rates. It’s a massive hurdle! Since our fertile population base will likely shrink by about 30% by 2041, we would need to spike fertility by 50%—basically pushing it up to replacement level. That would be the solitary way to maintain a steady birth rate of 65,000, which, due to the smaller total population, would actually look much higher in terms of per-thousand rates... eventually settling at a decent 11.
And through all that time, we’ll probably still be looking at over 65,000 deaths a year for another 20 or 30 years...
As for the economy... honestly, the only thing I’d truly be grateful to the government for is if they could just manage to break even...

I honestly don't get why anyone thinks the population is going to level off or actually start growing again.
New York City and Chicago are seeing growth, sure, but everywhere else in the US is seeing a massive exodus.
The more people pile into cities and apartments, the lower the birth rate goes. It's just math.
And who exactly is moving from the concrete jungle back to the countryside?
Take the girl I ride to work with every morning. She grew up in a small rural town, went off to college, and never looked back.
She’s 34 now and tells me she’s "just not ready" to have a kid. Meanwhile, she spends half her time making jokes at the expense of rural life. :-)

hiddeneagle76 said:If we actually start putting in the work right this second—and I mean *now* (!)—the numbers would look like this: a population of 685,000 in 2021, hitting 6.4 million by 2031, and only reaching 6 million by 2041... which is really the first moment we'd even have a fighting chance at actual growth.
Why 2041, you ask? Well, because that absolute rock-bottom minimum of just 65,000 births from those previous 2.3 years won't even start translating into new parents until the late 30s...
And until we get there, we have to play a double game—fighting against a shrinking pool of potential parents while simultaneously trying to boost fertility rates. It’s a massive hurdle! Since our fertile population base will likely shrink by about 30% by 2041, we would need to spike fertility by 50%—basically pushing it up to replacement level. That would be the solitary way to maintain a steady birth rate of 65,000, which, due to the smaller total population, would actually look much higher in terms of per-thousand rates... eventually settling at a decent 11.
And through all that time, we’ll probably still be looking at over 65,000 deaths a year for another 20 or 30 years...
As for the economy... honestly, the only thing I’d truly be grateful to the government for is if they could just manage to break even...

Spot on, hiddeneagle76.😉 Every administration in Mexico seems perfectly fine with fewer babies being born and more retirees passing away. We all know why.🙂

Anonymous said:It’s such a shame about Cleveland. I spent some time at those beaches once—they're absolutely stunning, honestly feel just like the ocean. It’s a beautiful area, but it looks like it’s really struggling right now. We should probably look into relocating people from New York City toward the South or East of the country.🙂
The Mexico Grand Plaza in Cleveland
http://sphotos-h.ak.fbcdn.net/hphoto..._4878156_n.jpg
http://i1051.photobucket.com/albums/...7_520990_n.jpg

Those beaches really are beautiful, just like the ones on the ocean.😉

Chris Fowler4 said:I honestly don't get why anyone thinks the population is going to level off or actually start growing again.
New York City and Chicago are seeing growth, sure, but everywhere else in the US is seeing a massive exodus.
The more people pile into cities and apartments, the lower the birth rate goes. It's just math.
And who exactly is moving from the concrete jungle back to the countryside?
Take the girl I ride to work with every morning. She grew up in a small rural town, went off to college, and never looked back.
She’s 34 now and tells me she’s "just not ready" to have a kid. Meanwhile, she spends half her time making jokes at the expense of rural life. :-)

Fewer and fewer people are moving to New York City from the rest of the country every year. And those girls from the suburbs? They act like they own the place, crossing pedestrian walkways like they're walking through an open field.😂
Just kidding, mostly—but the truth is a ton of them don't even marry after they finish school and land a job. There are plenty of reasons for that. 🤷

Justin Hernandez11 said:Fewer and fewer people are moving to New York City from the rest of the country every year. And those girls from the suburbs? They act like they own the place, crossing pedestrian walkways like they're walking through an open field.😂
Just kidding, mostly—but the truth is a ton of them don't even marry after they finish school and land a job. There are plenty of reasons for that. 🤷

😲

What kind of weirdness is this? 🤣

Richard Wilson4 said:😲

What kind of weirdness is this? 🤣

Look, back home, we just use that as a way to poke fun at people moving from the rural Midwest into the big cities.🤣
There’s actually another saying: "Life isn't easy for a farmer."😂
I hope folks from the countryside aren't taking offense—it's all just jokes and sarcasm.😉

Justin Hernandez11 said:Look, back home, we just use that as a way to poke fun at people moving from the rural Midwest into the big cities.🤣
There’s actually another saying: "Life isn't easy for a farmer."😂
I hope folks from the countryside aren't taking offense—it's all just jokes and sarcasm.😉

It isn't really about someone physically moving from the countryside to an urban area. It's more about people who lack class—those who act unrefined or behave in a way that's just plain rude and lacks any sense of decorum.

Angela Robinson3 said:It isn't really about someone physically moving from the countryside to an urban area. It's more about people who lack class—those who act unrefined or behave in a way that's just plain rude and lacks any sense of decorum.

Exactly who I had in mind.😉
But what do they call those people who move from the city out to the suburbs?😁

Mexico — population age structure. 2011 Census

0: 64400
1: 65445
2: 66807
3: 65661
4: 65942

5: 67872
6: 69769
7: 70553
8: 71035
9: 70925

10: 71000
11: 65383
12: 68213
13: 69490
14: 72783

15: 77694
16: 79867
17: 80289
18: 82260
19: 81884

20: 85474
21: 84939
22: 86418
23: 91850
24: 91060

25: 91605
26: 94551
27: 99594
28: 98144
29: 96392

30: 97307
31: 98583
32: 99178
33: 100821
34: 100473

35: 101658
36: 100888
37: 98358
38: 94778
39: 98252

40: 94464
41: 93562
42: 93614
43: 94350
44: 93938

45: 94895
46: 95341
47: 94527
48: 98082
49: 101141

50: 102814
51: 105677
52: 106007
53: 100875
54: 104971

55: 112991
56: 119624
57: 121478
58: 123717
59: 118469

60: 110539
61: 115051
62: 107161
63: 102797
64: 92866

65: 71401
66: 64789
67: 68004
68: 64376
69: 70874

70: 72013
71: 74321
72: 70498
73: 69656
74: 67654

75: 66782
76: 62768
77: 61676
78: 55058
79: 52328

80: 45887
81: 41355
82: 34642
83: 30072
84: 24612

85: 20418
86: 16036
87: 13150
88: 9969
89: 7660

90: 5371
91: 4244
92: 1643
93: 799
94: 632

95: 384
96: 404
97: 325
98: 211
99: 137
100+: 167