Henry Myers3 said:Richard, you're applying an American framework to Spain. What most people call "Spaniards" are actually primarily Castilians. Think of Spain as an umbrella term meant to bring everyone under one roof. You have Aragonese and Asturians with their own distinct languages being folded into the Spanish identity, while Galicians sit somewhere in the middle. Then you have the Basques and Catalans, who refuse to fully assimilate, yet they don't quite fit the definition of minorities either. Even the concept of "Spanishness" is shaking lately—take the Andalusians wanting independence, or how even the Catalans aren't a monolith, considering there are Valencians who have no desire to be part of Catalonia. Spain is a complicated puzzle...
The Valencians are a case study in themselves. In Valencia, about 51% of the population speaks Catalan/Valencian/Balearic, while the rest speak Castilian. That remainder is more or less located in the hinterlands. 😁
Keep in mind that even though they share the same orthography, Valencians use a different dialect—one closer to Southern Italian influences rather than the Barcelona-based speech that forms the Catalan standard. 😁
Asturian still exists as a language, spoken by the people in that region. It's also used in Leon, though there it goes by a different name and isn't nearly as prevalent among the younger generation.
Aragonese also survives, but it's limited to the Pyrenean hills. 😁
In northern Navarre, you have the Basques, but they only make up about a third of the total population. Since Navarre is less densely populated than the rest of the Basque Country, if annexation were ever to happen, the Basques might end up with a 70% majority—at least, that's my guess, though I can't say for certain. 😁 Even Pamplona itself has a non-Basque majority.
Spain is somewhat similar to the former America, but based on the people I know living there, the parallels to the American breakup aren't quite that straightforward.
It is entirely possible that regions like Cantabria, Murcia, Extremadura, La Rioja, and La Mancha could follow the path of the CG in a breakup scenario.
What keeps Spain together is France—because if things fall apart, they face potential headaches with northern Catalonia (even if Catalans are a minority there now 😁) and northern Basque Country (perhaps better known as Navarre). Plus, it’s simply easier to maintain order with one large state than a cluster of tiny ones.
The relationship between Castilian identity and Spanish identity remains ill-defined—even if three-quarters of the population identifies as Castilian, it feels like things could shift...