Gold: Past, Present, and Future

What could possibly be the reason, then? Why did it drop from 44 to 39 dollars?

Does this have anything to do with Germany pulling physical gold out of France, the UK, or the USA, or just the general trend of nations moving their gold reserves back into their own central banks?

Patrick Moore3 said:Check the numbers:
2.1.
U.S. Treasury securities 1,662,851
Mortgage-backed securities (4) 926,658
30.1.
U.S. Treasury securities 1,710,058
Mortgage-backed securities (4) 965,784

In January, Ben picked up about 40 trillion USD in MBS and nearly 48 trillion USD in Treasuries... For the first time since QE2 ended, we're seeing a legit expansion of the balance sheet. It's actually even bigger than what was telegraphed, though he probably dumped some stuff yesterday just to stay within his limits...
History says when the balance sheet stays flat, gold climbs... when it grows, gold stalls.
Just curious, what do you guys think is stalling gold right now?

1. Gold has become too "paperized." Nobody's trading physical anymore, so the price doesn't reflect actual supply.
2. Demand is dropping (like with Indians, for example).
3. Gold has decoupled from the dollar. Since the dollar isn't the undisputed king anymore, who cares what the greenback does?
4. QE doesn't touch gold prices because inflation isn't hitting.
5. Manipulation by the big bankers.
6. General market uncertainty.
7. No clue.
8. Something else entirely.

I'm only betting on number 6. 😬

1. I wouldn't say so—if that were true, it would already be common knowledge.
2. Not really, though maybe partially possible.
3. Wouldn't say so.
4. Wouldn't say so.
5. Unlikely, but could be partially true.
6. 7. 8. Definitely.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Pre-game vibes for the Nonfarm Payrolls report:

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Maury Harris is calling for 192,000
Citigroup Chief U. S. Economist Robert DiClemente is leaning toward 190,000
Morgan Stanley Chief Economic Strategist Andrew Wilkinson thinks we'll see 180,000
Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist Joseph A. LaVorgna is sitting at 170,000
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Co-Head of Global Economic Research Ethan Harris is feeling much more conservative with 130,000

I'm leaning toward 157,000 🙂

Unemployment ticked up from 7.8% to 7.9%, missing the 7.8% forecast. So, I guess Ben needs to keep the printing presses running—or maybe just crank them up. Gold is climbing, stocks are climbing. It’d be great if gold could break through 1700 sooner rather than later; 1700 is the magic number.

This offers a pretty clear look at what’s actually driving gold prices right now—essentially just a direct reaction to the latest NFPs data.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0201_react.jpg

Yeah, you can see that loud and clear!

Patrick Moore3 said:Check the numbers:
2.1.
U.S. Treasury securities 1,662,851
Mortgage-backed securities (4) 926,658
30.1.
U.S. Treasury securities 1,710,058
Mortgage-backed securities (4) 965,784

In January, Ben picked up about 40 trillion USD in MBS and nearly 48 trillion USD in Treasuries... For the first time since QE2 ended, we're seeing a legit expansion of the balance sheet. It's actually even bigger than what was telegraphed, though he probably dumped some stuff yesterday just to stay within his limits...
History says when the balance sheet stays flat, gold climbs... when it grows, gold stalls.
Just curious, what do you guys think is stalling gold right now?

1. Gold has become too "paperized." Nobody's trading physical anymore, so the price doesn't reflect actual supply.
2. Demand is dropping (like with Indians, for example).
3. Gold has decoupled from the dollar. Since the dollar isn't the undisputed king anymore, who cares what the greenback does?
4. QE doesn't touch gold prices because inflation isn't hitting.
5. Manipulation by the big bankers.
6. General market uncertainty.
7. No clue.
8. Something else entirely.

Numbers 2, 6, and 8!

The Dow crossed 14,000, pushing the Dow/gold ratio past 8.
Stubbornly persistent.

Kyle Bass .......The stock market in Zimbabwe was the top performer of the decade—but today, your entire portfolio wouldn't even cover the cost of three eggs.......😍
There are also some solid insights here on how to hedge against cost-push inflation—focusing on productive assets—which is a much more reliable strategy.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ember-zimbabwe

dustyheron5 said:Kyle Bass .......The stock market in Zimbabwe was the top performer of the decade—but today, your entire portfolio wouldn't even cover the cost of three eggs.......😍
There are also some solid insights here on how to hedge against cost-push inflation—focusing on productive assets—which is a much more reliable strategy.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ember-zimbabwe

Sure? Nothing is certain. Imagine if we hit a deflationary shock and the Dow Jones plunges to, say, 8,000. In that scenario, I’d be buying more equities temporarily. But looking at the long term, avoiding higher inflation seems unlikely. My timeframe extends beyond five years, especially if we see a major hit like quiettrucker12 predicted. Either way, you need immense patience and disciplined liquidity split between paper assets and precious metals. It’s actually quite helpful when someone in your family knows how to run a farm—in my case, my father. That’s arguably more important than anything else. If you can feed yourself, you might not even need the metals. You still have to invest in that land, but it pays off immensely. That’s the outlook for the next fifteen years, maybe longer. To almost anyone, I would suggest the following:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j880UaE_97Q

"Back to square one," says the dog.😁
In other words, it’s time to return to our roots: agriculture. Take it or leave it.
It’s more modest, sure, but it’s safer and far more dignified than all this mindless consumerism.

How realistic is this scenario, really?

mellownomad said:How realistic is this scenario, really?

Maybe not tomorrow, but it's incredibly likely. Washington manipulates whatever it needs to, people are fed up with the games, and frankly, they should expect the fallout.

Sean Carter said:Maybe not tomorrow, but it's incredibly likely. Washington manipulates whatever it needs to, people are fed up with the games, and frankly, they should expect the fallout.

If my memory serves, you were pretty skeptical about gold and silver last fall, criticizing the sluggish growth and claiming the outlook was bleak. So, you’re shifting gears—at least on a long-term basis. That’s fine by me. It seems like a little light is finally being shed on what I’ve been saying for ages. Forgive the bluntness; I’m just laying out how I see things.
But if gold gets pulled into this, silver is practically a foregone conclusion...
And that would bolster my finances enough to potentially sustain me for years to come.

I don't quite get why my skepticism regarding gold has become such a massive deal, especially since this has been dragging on for over a year. Honestly, I think we should be focusing on giving Bill Gates an answer instead. Don't you agree?

Sean Carter said:I don't quite get why my skepticism regarding gold has become such a massive deal, especially since this has been dragging on for over a year. Honestly, I think we should be focusing on giving Bill Gates an answer instead. Don't you agree?

It matters. Because it wasn't just a year ago—for several months, you weren't backing the case for investing in gold and silver. At least, that’s how I read it. Correct me if I'm wrong. What is a potential investor supposed to think when they rely on opinions like yours? On what basis have you changed your mind now? Just explain that part, though I haven't seen much from you lately to update investors on your current stance...
At least, that's how your tone came across back then; you sounded desperate. Everyone has their moments, and I've certainly had mine, but even during those times, I maintained support for gold and silver investments through my tone—even when I wasn't entirely convinced it was a brilliant idea. It’s a massive distinction, not some minor detail. It doesn't matter to me personally, but for the sake of new investors, people should know where I stand.😉
So, it isn't just important. It's critical.

Robert Vaughn10 said:It matters. Because it wasn't just a year ago—for several months, you weren't backing the case for investing in gold and silver. At least, that’s how I read it. Correct me if I'm wrong. What is a potential investor supposed to think when they rely on opinions like yours? On what basis have you changed your mind now? Just explain that part, though I haven't seen much from you lately to update investors on your current stance...
At least, that's how your tone came across back then; you sounded desperate. Everyone has their moments, and I've certainly had mine, but even during those times, I maintained support for gold and silver investments through my tone—even when I wasn't entirely convinced it was a brilliant idea. It’s a massive distinction, not some minor detail. It doesn't matter to me personally, but for the sake of new investors, people should know where I stand.😉
So, it isn't just important. It's critical.

I was speaking from personal experience. First off, I respect everyone on this board because people here give it their all trying to map out price movements for precious metals. But despite all that effort, passion, and expertise, people get burned constantly—not because they lack knowledge, but because you simply can't fight market manipulation. It should be obvious to everyone who holds the cards in the American stock market. Let me put this in perspective from where I sit. Back in 2011, I bought a physical ounce of gold for €1,375, which was roughly $1,850 at the time. Today, an ounce is sitting at €1,261 ($1,667.60). Do I really need to go on? My takeaway after a year and a half is that I probably shouldn't have bought. Meanwhile, the paper traders can jump in and out of positions instantly, waiting for the perfect entry, while I'm just sitting here under my mattress, happy to have the physical metal but feeling the sting of the loss. Having the physical stuff helped me sleep at night, I'll give it that🙂. But what am I supposed to do with physical bullion? Sell it just to break even on my market losses plus the bank's spread? Everything I've said is based on what happened and what is coming ??????????????????????? only time will tell...........

Sean Carter said:I was speaking from personal experience. First off, I respect everyone on this board because people here give it their all trying to map out price movements for precious metals. But despite all that effort, passion, and expertise, people get burned constantly—not because they lack knowledge, but because you simply can't fight market manipulation. It should be obvious to everyone who holds the cards in the American stock market. Let me put this in perspective from where I sit. Back in 2011, I bought a physical ounce of gold for €1,375, which was roughly $1,850 at the time. Today, an ounce is sitting at €1,261 ($1,667.60). Do I really need to go on? My takeaway after a year and a half is that I probably shouldn't have bought. Meanwhile, the paper traders can jump in and out of positions instantly, waiting for the perfect entry, while I'm just sitting here under my mattress, happy to have the physical metal but feeling the sting of the loss. Having the physical stuff helped me sleep at night, I'll give it that🙂. But what am I supposed to do with physical bullion? Sell it just to break even on my market losses plus the bank's spread? Everything I've said is based on what happened and what is coming ??????????????????????? only time will tell...........

Oh, so you're down 10%. You think that's a crisis?
Imagine if you were down 50% or more.
There's no arguing that you bought near an intermediate peak. If you don't trust your investment, it's better to exit than to suffer through it. It seems to me you need to sit down and figure out why you're even in precious metals. My goal is primarily insurance; making a profit is secondary. I'm looking for protection in case things go south. For someone who appears to be a very capable entrepreneur, being down 10% isn't exactly rare, and frankly, it isn't even close to being fatal. Decide for yourself how much you actually believe in this. Think with a cool head, then make your move.
Instant profit is a myth. Personally, I'll wait, even if it takes ten years or more...
I like to believe this forum is a place where we can exchange views openly and honestly, leaving everyone to decide their own path.

Ben Davies on inflation...

So, what does the future hold for cash? According to The Wall Street Journal:

“The legendary Peter Schiff—a true contrarian and top-tier fund manager—recently analyzed inflation data through the lens of his firm, Goldman Sachs. His research suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses deeply flawed methodologies when calculating the CPI. By constructing an independent basket of 20 essential goods and services, Goldman Sachs researchers discovered a massive discrepancy. Between 1970 and 1980, their findings showed prices rose only 5% faster than the official CPI—back then, the numbers were actually reliable. However, from 2002 to 2012, the cost of that same basket skyrocketed 61% faster than the official figures! Schiff argues that real US inflation is sitting between 7% and 9%, and it's only going up from here.”
Interestingly, our own unofficial S&P 500 tracks right along with that 7% estimate.
Let's be honest—we all realize inflation isn't what the government claims it is. Whether the real number is 5, 7, or 10% largely depends on your personal spending habits—but it certainly isn't 2%.

Jim Sinclair:
"Some gold genius out there who clearly doesn't know what they're talking about
must be calling for an immediate crash in the bond market."

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&...kpD4WOPlYOWhMQ

Personally, I suspect this will drag on for years, regardless of how overextended the bond market looks. We aren't just dealing with experts here; we're dealing with actual magicians—masters of deception. Let gold stay right where it is for now... there are certain advantages to that.

Mark Dic is back at it again, trying to shill gold to everyone

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=qf_ENBaAna0