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Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Started by Melissa Sanchez17 · · 👁 89 views · 3K replies

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Participants Melissa Sanchez17dustyheron5quiettrucker12Anthony Evans78Sean Carteranalogharbor44feralpuma12ironstag8Amanda Carter7lonehawk5briskjackal5Andrew Barrett4Dennis Fisher5granitegull51Zachary Mendoza2Christian Miller14neondriver5George Sullivan902nimblepanther18Jerry Wright6Patrick Moore3wearygull4Taylor Robinson51wearyotter36 …
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#2401 ·
Gold has hit the corner of this massive triangle. Now we wait to see which way it breaks. Yesterday’s attempt at a breakout failed miserably, slamming right into that resistance line on GLD. With the Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we might finally see a catalyst push things in one direction or the other.

The commercials slashed their gold shorts big time between January 22nd and January 29th—though they didn't touch silver. Of course, without the data from January 5th, it's hard to say just how drastic that move really was.
Melissa Sanchez17 Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP
359 messages
joined Feb 2019
#2402 ·
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold-si...illion-ounces/
Robert Vaughn10 Robert Vaughn10 Regular
308 messages
joined Feb 2019
#2403 ·
It’s about time we broke through the 1700 USD mark. At this point, we're just spinning our wheels. It isn't going lower, but it’s certainly not climbing either. If we actually want to make a run toward 1800 USD, we need some real momentum—moves of at least 15 USD or more.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#2404 ·
Robert Vaughn10 said:It’s about time we broke through the 1700 USD mark. At this point, we're just spinning our wheels. It isn't going lower, but it’s certainly not climbing either. If we actually want to make a run toward 1800 USD, we need some real momentum—moves of at least 15 USD or more.

Things look quiet, but don't let that fool you; it's wild out there. It looks static because we've hit the corner of the triangle. There's nowhere left to squeeze. A breakout is coming soon—likely tomorrow after the Federal Reserve speaks—and we'll see which way it swings. Common sense points upward. Honestly, it's hard to guess exactly which Fed move will be read as bullish for gold and which won't. The EUR/USD looks like it's heading up toward at least 1.38, suggesting the USD might keep sliding, though a weaker Dollar doesn't always mean gold goes up. Either way, we'll know very shortly, unless we get hit by a fakeout before the real deal happens.
Robert Vaughn10 Robert Vaughn10 Regular
308 messages
joined Feb 2019
#2405 ·
quiettrucker12 said:Things look quiet, but don't let that fool you; it's wild out there. It looks static because we've hit the corner of the triangle. There's nowhere left to squeeze. A breakout is coming soon—likely tomorrow after the Federal Reserve speaks—and we'll see which way it swings. Common sense points upward. Honestly, it's hard to guess exactly which Fed move will be read as bullish for gold and which won't. The EUR/USD looks like it's heading up toward at least 1.38, suggesting the USD might keep sliding, though a weaker Dollar doesn't always mean gold goes up. Either way, we'll know very shortly, unless we get hit by a fakeout before the real deal happens.

But God forbid we break past 1800 USD and trigger that massive wave you're waiting for. I'd rather wait, even if it takes forever, because a correction would be absolutely brutal. We need a fundamental shift—gold needs to enter a completely new regime—and that hasn't happened yet.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#2406 ·
It could hit $3,500. Honestly, anything north of $1,800 would be enough confirmation for me, but the real question is what happens in the immediate term... we might find out as early as today. Platinum might just be leading the charge here.
stormyraven11 stormyraven11 Newcomer
1 message
joined Feb 2013
#2407 ·
Hey guys!
I’ve been lurking here for a while now, and honestly, reading through your threads has been a massive crash course in global economics. I’ll be the first to admit I don't know enough about investing in precious metals to tell if your theories are spot on or totally off base, but it's great having this kind of discussion going. As a total amateur, I’ve been wondering: is it actually realistic to expect gold to tank below $1,000 an ounce? Like, could we really see it slide back to those levels from a decade ago when it was hovering around $300?
Taylor Robinson51 Taylor Robinson51 Member
23 messages
joined Feb 2012
#2408 ·
stormyraven11 said:Hey guys!
I’ve been lurking here for a while now, and honestly, reading through your threads has been a massive crash course in global economics. I’ll be the first to admit I don't know enough about investing in precious metals to tell if your theories are spot on or totally off base, but it's great having this kind of discussion going. As a total amateur, I’ve been wondering: is it actually realistic to expect gold to tank below $1,000 an ounce? Like, could we really see it slide back to those levels from a decade ago when it was hovering around $300?

Gold mining is an incredibly energy-intensive industry. You have to process roughly 25 tons of ore just to yield a single ounce of gold, which demands massive amounts of diesel, electricity, and consumables. Based on the last data I have from 2011, the average cost for mining and processing ore sits at about $750 per ounce for gold mines—and that doesn't even include administrative, financial, or other overhead costs outside the mine itself. I would argue that $1,200–$1,300 represents the absolute floor; anything lower than that and even the worst mines would start shutting down, which would lead to reduced production and stabilized prices.

A significant crash in oil prices might somewhat lower the cost, since diesel is the largest expense and accounts for about $250–$300 per ounce of gold. However, for gold to drop below $1,000, there would have to be a collapse in the price of everything—miner wages, oil, electricity... essentially a massive deflationary spiral, which is nearly impossible.

That $300 gold price from a decade ago was the result of several factors we likely won't see again. Central banks used to sell gold; today, they are buying it. Oil was $20 a barrel back then, whereas now it’s closer to $100. Furthermore, due to prolonged depreciation, only the mines with high-grade ore were being worked. Back then, you needed less than 15 tons of ore to produce an ounce of gold; today, that figure is nearly 25 tons. Even those high-quality mines eventually run dry. For instance, South Africa once had the best gold mines and produced two-thirds of the world's supply in the 70s; today, they produce less than 12% of global output. In absolute terms, their production in 2010 was five times lower than it was in 1970.
Dennis Myers6 Dennis Myers6 Active Member
72 messages
joined Oct 2012
#2409 ·
Robert Vaughn10 said:Jim Sinclair:
"Some gold genius out there who clearly doesn't know what they're talking about
must be calling for an immediate crash in the bond market."

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&...kpD4WOPlYOWhMQ

Personally, I suspect this will drag on for years, regardless of how overextended the bond market looks. We aren't just dealing with experts here; we're dealing with actual magicians—masters of deception. Let gold stay right where it is for now... there are certain advantages to that.

Look, if you rip something in half—could be a t-shirt or even your car—and then try to patch it back together as best you can, it just isn't the same anymore, right? If you take a paper version of Tomislav, tape him back together, and walk into a bank... well, you just end up with a new paper version of Starčević... so, I guess the paper itself didn't actually lose any value.
Poverty is Paper
🙂
Robert Vaughn10 Robert Vaughn10 Regular
308 messages
joined Feb 2019
#2410 ·
Dennis Myers6 said:Look, if you rip something in half—could be a t-shirt or even your car—and then try to patch it back together as best you can, it just isn't the same anymore, right? If you take a paper version of Tomislav, tape him back together, and walk into a bank... well, you just end up with a new paper version of Starčević... so, I guess the paper itself didn't actually lose any value.
Poverty is Paper
🙂

Fiat isn't always worthless; look at the Deutsche Mark. You’re measuring everything within one inertial frame, but that isn't always the case. You're making the same mistake paper-lovers make when they underestimate gold and silver because they think it's useless. At the end of the day, gold and silver can be melted down or invested; that's not the issue here. What actually matters is what you do with that money, whether it's paper or bullion. Are you living off the backs of others, essentially leeching until you die—the clearest example being money printing—or are you saving and spending your own money wisely? In that case, gold and silver are favorable. Of course, those who just want to spend other people's money—again, I'm emphasizing corruption and printing as the direct consequence—don't criticize much until it affects their own interests.
Personally, I'm fine with the scenario of smoothing over those interests with a feather duster. That would be the real master plan...

In case I forgot something, I'll add this: today I witnessed an "extra-dimensional facial spasm" from my grandfather Charles.
It was hilarious. One Starčević in the pocket.
Sean Carter Sean Carter Member
20 messages
joined Jan 2012
#2411 ·
Robert Vaughn10 said:It’s about time we broke through the 1700 USD mark. At this point, we're just spinning our wheels. It isn't going lower, but it’s certainly not climbing either. If we actually want to make a run toward 1800 USD, we need some real momentum—moves of at least 15 USD or more.

Unfortunately, my colleague is mistaken; it’s not that it won't go down, it absolutely will. As we saw yesterday, we’re circling the drain. Maybe you finally understand why I'm so pessimistic, or perhaps you need more "proof"? For days the price has been creeping up just to plummet vertically! There is one fundamental difference between us. First and foremost, I invest so that I can make a profit, and if I'm not making money, I at least want to protect what I put in. That's why I see a massive red flag when I'm bleeding 10% in Euros and even more in USD. This is a huge issue for me because I didn't find this cash lying on a sidewalk; I worked my tail off for it. Please, in the future, don't try to tell people whether 10% is a lot or a little of their own money. Anyone with enough sense to be investing today already knows if 10% hits them hard or not.

That's all from me. Wishing everyone a good day and hoping for some green on the charts, though I have my doubts!
Robert Vaughn10 Robert Vaughn10 Regular
308 messages
joined Feb 2019
#2412 ·
Sean Carter said:Unfortunately, my colleague is mistaken; it’s not that it won't go down, it absolutely will. As we saw yesterday, we’re circling the drain. Maybe you finally understand why I'm so pessimistic, or perhaps you need more "proof"? For days the price has been creeping up just to plummet vertically! There is one fundamental difference between us. First and foremost, I invest so that I can make a profit, and if I'm not making money, I at least want to protect what I put in. That's why I see a massive red flag when I'm bleeding 10% in Euros and even more in USD. This is a huge issue for me because I didn't find this cash lying on a sidewalk; I worked my tail off for it. Please, in the future, don't try to tell people whether 10% is a lot or a little of their own money. Anyone with enough sense to be investing today already knows if 10% hits them hard or not.

That's all from me. Wishing everyone a good day and hoping for some green on the charts, though I have my doubts!


I think there’s a misunderstanding here. I never claimed there wouldn't be volatility or harsh corrections on this difficult path. However, the critical factors are the entry and exit points. It's not about the fluctuations in between. And no, my goal isn't just capital preservation; I want to profit too. But protection comes first. In my estimation, making a real profit will take ten years. I've always maintained that.
Is 10% an issue for you? Fine. I simply pointed out that much worse scenarios exist. If 10% is too much to handle, sell so you don't lose more.
If you believe I am somehow responsible for your situation, reach out to me. We can set a date and a calculation method, keeping in mind that I always stated we would have to wait over five years. From what I gather, you don't actually make investment decisions regarding precious metals based on internet forums. So, I don't see why expressing an opinion is problematic;we live in a democracy, after all, and everyone makes their own choices.Furthermore, I have always argued that gold and silver should be bought when prices are high, which isn't the case right now compared to what they could be. And regardless of anyone's feelings, in my view, the price will eventually have to go up. Personally, I won't back down; I'll ride through the "pain" of these corrections. I certainly won't stop sharing my perspective. Honestly, your "problem" seems minor when you consider the fates of people in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere who work just as hard, if not harder, for almost nothing. You might want to reflect on that, as it dictates how you view your situation. Besides, you can sell whenever you like and walk away. You aren't starving, and from what I can tell, you're doing just fine. It's as if the money owns you. That's wrong;you should be the one in control of the money.😉
Personally, I couldn't care less what happens to gold over the next two years. I'm looking at the bigger picture.
Meanwhile, some people are "counting" their wealth while leaning against the windows of a cathedral on their deathbeds...
Ashley Thompson10 Ashley Thompson10 Member
22 messages
joined Jan 2012
#2413 ·
Since nobody seems to have shared this yet: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...lessons-keynes

My take? We’re heading toward that incredibly rare moment where the yield on simply sitting on cash actually beats the return on investment. It sounds absurd, I know, but it points to one inevitable conclusion: precious metals are going to absolutely crush just about every other asset class out there—with the lone exception of mining stocks and natural resource plays.
Sean Carter Sean Carter Member
20 messages
joined Jan 2012
#2414 ·
I’m afraid we’re talking past each other. It depends on how you look at it! I think we both understand and don't understand each other at the same time...

I never claimed there wouldn't be volatility or brutal corrections on this rough road. I’m not pointing fingers at you, or anyone else on this forum, just because of their forecasts. That would be disrespectful to people trying to share their expertise with us. On the flip side, regardless of my knowledge, yours, or anyone else's, things can pivot in a completely different direction in an instant.

But here’s the thing: the entry and exit points are everything. That isn't just important; it's the most critical part. Timing your entry and exit is vital when discussing any investment. That’s why I suggested it might be unwise to buy physical bullion, since paper assets allow for much easier movement. Then again, trading paper feels like a gamble to me—you're trading something invisible, and we've seen plenty of times where the house wins. There's a real scenario where paper gold from a specific issuer turns out to be nothing more than a ghost; it simply doesn't exist. When you hold physical metal, what you paid for is sitting right there next to you. That was my point when I jumped into the gold debate; you took me for a skeptic. I am a partial skeptic, sure, but only because of my history with precious metals.

No, it’s about what happens in the interim... And naturally, my goal isn't just capital preservation; I want to make a profit too. Protection comes first. But for actual gains, in my estimation, we’re looking at a ten-year horizon. I’ve always maintained that. That is your opinion, and I respect it, as I respect everyone else's well-intentioned views. With all due respect, however, I take your view with a grain of salt—not because I doubt your intellect, but because we have seen enough market manipulation to know better. Americans will move mountains and fight tooth and nail to remain the number one global superpower in every sense. In those circumstances, I factor heavy manipulation into my math. If the US didn't keep things "under control"—meaning if they released a truly transparent picture of the gold situation—it would be significantly more expensive, in my view. That's just my take; you don't have to agree. But what we *all* have to agree on is that the price is what it is right now, whether people like it or not.

Is a 10% drop a problem for you? What about for anyone else? I don't know anyone who enjoys losing money.

Fair enough... I just meant there are far worse situations out there. If a loss is too hard to stomach, then sell it so you don't lose more... In your following comments, you explained beautifully why one shouldn't sell, and I'm with you on that. Whatever happens, happens.

If you genuinely feel I owe you something, let me know. We can pick a date and a method for settlement, keeping in mind I’ve always said we’d need to wait over five years...
I don't follow. What "settlement" are you talking about? Where did you get the impression I’d ever settle a score with you or anyone else? The most I can do with you or anyone on this forum is grab a coffee and have a chat. That's it. No settling scores. Don't insult me; I'm not making threats. I’m just stating my opinion, which I admit gets a bit louder when I'm passionate. Sorry, I never learned how to sugarcoat things. My policy is to hit them straight in the face, and the most hollow phrase I hear is someone offering empty platitudes just to comfort someone without providing any real arguments.

But, from what I gather by your logic, you wouldn't rely on a forum to make a decision about buying precious metals either.
We're all different, obviously. On the other hand, you often get a much more realistic and truthful picture from this forum than elsewhere.

So, I don't see why it's a problem to express an opinion. We live in a democracy, after all; everyone makes their own calls.
Agreed! Everyone is the architect of their own fate and fortune.

One thing I've always maintained is that you buy gold and silver when prices are high, and right now, compared to what they could be, they aren't. And based on my assessment of what's coming... prices will have to go up, whether anyone likes it or not.
Based on my experience with gold and just plain old life, what goes down must come up, and vice versa.
I’m not backing down; I’ll happily ride out these corrections. Like they say, come hell or high water!


And I certainly won't stop speaking my mind. Honestly, you guys aren't even facing a real crisis when you consider the struggles in Africa, Asia, and beyond, where people toil for pennies. Maybe give that some thought... because your perspective depends entirely on how you view the situation. Besides, you can cash out whenever you want; you aren't exactly starving, and from what I can tell, you have plenty of breathing room.
That's a lovely sentiment and true enough, but believe me, I might be more aware of the weight of those words than you are. That's why I'm being stubborn—disaster doesn't always strike someone else. What happens in Africa or Asia could land on our doorstep, or in your backyard, tomorrow. Hope you agree?

It's like you're letting the money call the shots. That's backwards; you should be the one calling the shots with your money.
You've got a point there. But who isn't being led by the money? Just look at what desperate people will do. Some will sit on freezing pavement in the middle of winter just to beg for enough change to grab a bite. Sure, there are beggars who just don't want to work, but they aren't the type of people I care to discuss.

Personally, I couldn't care less what happens to gold over the next two years...

Hmm, I suspect you care more than you let on. As for me, I care quite a bit—I'd sleep much better if prices were climbing instead of leaving me with this constant shadow of doubt. Again, any scenario is on the table.

Money is waiting right at the door.I couldn't agree more!

And some people end up "counting" it on their deathbeds, leaning weakly against a window in a major cathedral...
I didn't quite follow your meaning there.....
Robert Vaughn10 Robert Vaughn10 Regular
308 messages
joined Feb 2019
#2415 ·
It seems you all have a solid grasp of the terminology. Look, there are a few technicalities where I disagree, but they’re minor details, so I won't bother nitpicking them here. I'm always open to a conversation, so if our paths happen to cross...
Melissa Sanchez17 Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP
359 messages
joined Feb 2019
#2416 ·
Sean Carter said:Unfortunately, my colleague is mistaken; it’s not that it won't go down, it absolutely will. As we saw yesterday, we’re circling the drain. Maybe you finally understand why I'm so pessimistic, or perhaps you need more "proof"? For days the price has been creeping up just to plummet vertically! There is one fundamental difference between us. First and foremost, I invest so that I can make a profit, and if I'm not making money, I at least want to protect what I put in. That's why I see a massive red flag when I'm bleeding 10% in Euros and even more in USD. This is a huge issue for me because I didn't find this cash lying on a sidewalk; I worked my tail off for it. Please, in the future, don't try to tell people whether 10% is a lot or a little of their own money. Anyone with enough sense to be investing today already knows if 10% hits them hard or not.

That's all from me. Wishing everyone a good day and hoping for some green on the charts, though I have my doubts!

Sell your metals, grab some KORF stock, and you'll claw back that 10% in a few days.😉 That’s basically what I did. Granted, I only liquidated one and a half ounces of gold, but hey, a win's a win.🙂

We really need to milk this Bakić guy while we still can.
Melissa Sanchez17 Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP
359 messages
joined Feb 2019
#2417 ·
Sean Carter says:
]But look, the entry point and the exit point—that's the whole game. That’s not just important, it’s everything! If you're talking about any kind of investment, timing your move in and out is absolutely critical.

Honestly? When you're investing, the only thing that actually matters is your entry point. Once you finally wrap your head around why that is, then—and only then—can you actually call yourself an investor. 😉>
Patrick Moore3 Patrick Moore3 Active Member
93 messages
joined Jun 2009
#2418 ·
It’s not the Chinese, it’s actually the Russians who are the biggest buyers... according to them:
http://rt.com/business/news/russia-b...old-buyer-946/
dustyheron5 dustyheron5 Regular
353 messages
joined Nov 2015
#2419 ·
Patrick Moore3 said:It’s not the Chinese, it’s actually the Russians who are the biggest buyers... according to them:
http://rt.com/business/news/russia-b...old-buyer-946/

That's only because the Chinese aren't interested in disclosing their actual purchase volumes. 😁
Sean Carter Sean Carter Member
20 messages
joined Jan 2012
#2420 ·
Patrick Moore3 said:It’s not the Chinese, it’s actually the Russians who are the biggest buyers... according to them:
http://rt.com/business/news/russia-b...old-buyer-946/

I'd throw this in there too
http://www.nytimes.com/business/gold-prices-surge-amid-global-uncertainty

If both these reports are legit—and I'm betting they are—we're looking at quite a show soon. Combine that with Germany pulling gold out of the Federal Reserve, and the reason for this gold price surge becomes obvious. We won't see any benefit from it here in the States, and neither will the rest of you.

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