Gold: Past, Present, and Future

dustyridge87 said:I’m struggling to wrap my head around this— https://www.goldbar.com/1-gram-gold-bar —the retail price is sitting at $25, but the buyback offer is only about $20. Does that mean I won't see a single cent of profit unless gold prices jump by at least 20%? That sounds completely absurd to me, so I must be missing something obvious here. Can someone please enlighten me?

did you check the pricing on the larger bars?

stormyraven68 said:did you check the pricing on the larger bars?

There’s an 8% spread on the 10-gram pieces, a 5% difference for the 100-gram ones, and it drops to 4% once you hit the 500-gram mark. Let’s say I decide to go with the 10-gramers—since dropping a massive chunk of cash on the bigger bars all at once feels like a bit much for me right now—we’re still talking about needing at least a 10% price surge just to see a measly 2% profit. Gold would have to rally back to those peak levels we saw way back in 2013 just to break even.

I don't know, man. Taking a position and instantly losing 5% to 18% of your purchasing power feels like a losing game from the jump. Honestly, the thought of looking at silver spreads makes my head spin, especially when you factor in how volatile the price is and then tack on the sales tax.

Are these actually standard margins for precious metals?

dustyridge87 said:There’s an 8% spread on the 10-gram pieces, a 5% difference for the 100-gram ones, and it drops to 4% once you hit the 500-gram mark. Let’s say I decide to go with the 10-gramers—since dropping a massive chunk of cash on the bigger bars all at once feels like a bit much for me right now—we’re still talking about needing at least a 10% price surge just to see a measly 2% profit. Gold would have to rally back to those peak levels we saw way back in 2013 just to break even.

I don't know, man. Taking a position and instantly losing 5% to 18% of your purchasing power feels like a losing game from the jump. Honestly, the thought of looking at silver spreads makes my head spin, especially when you factor in how volatile the price is and then tack on the sales tax.

Are these actually standard margins for precious metals?

What do you mean by "too much of a massive investment all at once"? Yeah, losing 5-18% immediately is brutal, but nobody in their right mind buys 1g pieces. To me, anything under an ounce is a waste. A bar like that costs $2833 and the spread is 3%, which is totally fine. Plus, you buy gold for the long haul. If you hold for 10 years, expecting a 100% gain is realistic, so that little spread becomes basically nothing.

John Rodriguez5 said:What do you mean by "too much of a massive investment all at once"? Yeah, losing 5-18% immediately is brutal, but nobody in their right mind buys 1g pieces. To me, anything under an ounce is a waste. A bar like that costs $2833 and the spread is 3%, which is totally fine. Plus, you buy gold for the long haul. If you hold for 10 years, expecting a 100% gain is realistic, so that little spread becomes basically nothing.

Dollar-cost averaging is a powerhouse strategy. If you can set aside $667 every single month to invest, then trying to buy a full ounce upfront would require four months' worth of capital in advance, which completely defeats the whole point of periodic buying.

Is it standard practice to DCA into gold every few months? Because if that's the case, just disregard my previous point. In your view, is picking up a 10g bar every month a solid move?

Over in the States, the spreads are much tighter. For instance, you'll see a mere 1-2% difference between the buy and sell prices for one-ounce Philharmonic coins here:

http://smh.net/at/anlegen/preisliste.html

With smaller denominations, the spread widens significantly. Right now, for a single gold ducat, we're looking at a 4.5% gap... specifically 125.00 versus 131.80.

dustyridge87 said:Dollar-cost averaging is a powerhouse strategy. If you can set aside $667 every single month to invest, then trying to buy a full ounce upfront would require four months' worth of capital in advance, which completely defeats the whole point of periodic buying.

Is it standard practice to DCA into gold every few months? Because if that's the case, just disregard my previous point. In your view, is picking up a 10g bar every month a solid move?

Look, if you're weighing up saving for retirement versus dumping an extra ten grand a month into something, I’m telling you—gold is still a winner. The price surge over the next few decades is gonna more than cover whatever fees you're paying to get in. Honestly? Just grab an ounce every couple of months. The price swings aren't chaotic enough to justify freaking out and buying every single week. Just stick to the plan.

I don't even know where to start with this one. Just total nonsense. Honestly, some people really need to get a grip. kaže:
The spreads abroad are way tighter. Over here, you're looking at a massive 1-2% gap between the buy and sell prices for one-ounce Philharmonic coins. It's ridiculous.

Check out this price list for setting up investments over at smh.net. It’s basically everything you need to know if you're looking to get your money moving. Just a heads-up: look it over before you jump in.

The spreads get pretty wide when you're dealing with smaller amounts. Like, right now, if you're looking at just one unit, the spread is sitting at about 4.5%. We're talking 125.00 versus 131.80. Not exactly great.

Sure, Austria might be cheaper, but only if you're buying in bulk. If you try to order it through the mail, the shipping costs alone will eat up any profit margin a distributor here in the States would make. And don't even get me started on the cost of driving over there just to pick it up myself.

Amanda Allen4 said:An old man from San Francisco—specifically from a little town just south of Sioux Hills, tucked right against the southern edge of the Rocky Mountains—once told me a story. He claimed that in the days leading up to the fall of Nazi Germany, people were trading exclusively in gold. Apparently, nobody wanted to touch paper currency anymore! Instead, they were doing what he called "gold for gold" trades—with a bit of a smirk, too. It only clicked for me much later: they weren't just hoarding wealth; they were using actual gold jewelry to buy basic necessities like corn.

This is precisely why you should keep some gold on hand in small denominations—1g, 2g, or 5g pieces. Think of it as a survival fund for roughly two years of basic living expenses in the event of a full-scale war (food, water, medicine, fuel, and clothing, plus enough ammo for a couple of rifles and a handgun). Don't view this as a traditional savings account; it’s strictly an emergency contingency.

John Rodriguez5 said:What do you mean by "too much of a massive investment all at once"? Yeah, losing 5-18% immediately is brutal, but nobody in their right mind buys 1g pieces. To me, anything under an ounce is a waste. A bar like that costs $2833 and the spread is 3%, which is totally fine. Plus, you buy gold for the long haul. If you hold for 10 years, expecting a 100% gain is realistic, so that little spread becomes basically nothing.

Can one of the veterans here call this what it is—trolling? Some people might actually take this seriously.

wearyotter36 said:Can one of the veterans here call this what it is—trolling? Some people might actually take this seriously.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/his...100-year-chart

Trolling? No way. Maybe just toss in another two scenarios so people actually have a choice. Let them pick from three different proposals depending on what works for them.

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Henry Martinez27 said:Trolling? No way. Maybe just toss in another two scenarios so people actually have a choice. Let them pick from three different proposals depending on what works for them.

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I actually plotted a graph that strips out inflation entirely, showing the real growth of gold prices expressed in dollars. Once you account for inflation, you see that gold saw significant real growth during only three specific windows over the last century: 1930–1934, 1970–1980, and 2001–2012. Every other year was either stagnation—back when the gold standard was still a thing—or a straight decline.

Ultimately, this data doesn't tell us much because the exchange rates between the Republican Party's currency, then later the European Union's, against the dollar have fluctuated too wildly.

Here in California, we really ought to be looking at gold prices exclusively in terms of the European Union's currency, or if one insists on being pedantic about the Federal Reserve's influence, adjusting for inflation. That would be the only way to find a truly meaningful indicator.

wearyotter36 said:Can one of the veterans here call this what it is—trolling? Some people might actually take this seriously.

Do me a favor. Look at the price right when we ditched the gold standard back in '71. Calculate how much it’s shot up per decade since then, and then come back and stop embarrassing yourself with comments like this.

Bitcoin isn't digital gold—and this isn't the seventies. If we don't hit some massive global catastrophe in the next five years, gold could realistically double from where it sits today for one good reason or another. It might even triple, though honestly, that feels a bit overblown to me.
There’s a big difference between wishing for something and looking at reality. I'm holding silver, and let's be real: the only thing driving silver up is gold's momentum. As much as I'd love to see gold skyrocket, I know it won't happen overnight—because for gold to moon like that, something truly terrible would have to go down, and I'm not sure any of us actually want that scenario.

John Rodriguez5 said:Do me a favor. Look at the price right when we ditched the gold standard back in '71. Calculate how much it’s shot up per decade since then, and then come back and stop embarrassing yourself with comments like this.

Exactly! If we actually went back to a gold standard today, considering how much more currency is floating around out there, gold would have to be priced at roughly $40,000 per ounce.

I'm certainly a fan of gold as an asset class, but I am not particularly thrilled about the prospect of returning to a gold standard. Ideally, having a diverse array of options is the superior approach—fiat in various currencies, gold, silver, Bitcoin... whatever suits your individual strategy. If you are forced to rely on a single currency, then you are likely living in the Soviet Union or North Korea...

In any case, my recommendation is to maintain 10-25% of your savings in gold, leaving the remainder to be allocated according to your own preferences.

Things are starting to heat up in here 👍

Hold?

If it jumps to 1500, we're looking at a total meltdown 😁

Post-tea debrief with Janet and Ben:

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...tch-installed/

I’ll say it again: volatility can hit you from anywhere. These sudden rallies where the Dow jumps about 1,000 points are classic hallmarks of a bear market. Look at the S&P 500—it dropped 20% at one point. Apple and Facebook have both shed dozens of percentage points, and there’s no sign of a bottom yet. On top of that, we’ve seen a bond inversion. The spread between the 1-year and 10-year yields has flattened out. I'd call that a symptom...

John Doe notes at 5:40:



"Allocate up to 10% to silver mining stocks."

Ladies and gentlemen, listen up. There is still plenty of time left to load up on gold.

Back in 1999—look at the data—the gold-to-Dow Jones ratio sat at 44:1 (meaning you needed 44 ounces of gold, priced at roughly $250 per ounce, just to match the value of the Dow Jones). Fast forward twelve years to 2011, when gold surged past $1,900, and that ratio plummeted down to 6:1.

Right now? It’s hovering around 18:1. We are seeing clear signals of a correction coming, and we aren't far from that 15:1 threshold where gold starts looking ridiculously overpriced.