Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Mark Sullivan62 said:Look, I’ve got basically nothing invested in gold right now, maybe just a single ounce tucked away somewhere.
But honestly, I’m ready to pull the trigger in the next few days and pick up another three or four ounces.
That would put me looking at several thousand dollars, so believe me, I'm not exactly indifferent about whether I'm buying at $2,500 or, I don't know, maybe $2,000 if things take a sudden turn I haven't seen coming—and let's face it, I probably haven't seen it because I don't track this stuff religiously, which is why I'm asking.

I just don't want to be caught off guard if they suddenly strike a massive new vein somewhere in the middle of nowhere, like deep in the Nevada desert or something, and the price craters instantly because the supply just spiked.

Look, I highly doubt they're gonna stumble upon some massive motherlode. They've pretty much picked the bones clean everywhere they've dug. Sure, there might be smaller deposits scattered around, but once you factor in the cost of moving tons of dirt, fuel, heavy machinery, labor, and all those permits... I seriously doubt anyone could turn a profit selling at low prices.
That said, if you're planning on dumping a huge chunk of cash into this and you're going to be totally dependent on it for the next 5 to 10 years, then don't do it—though personally, I don't think you'd lose a dime.
As for me, I've got plenty loaded up in gold, so I don't stress over it or stare at charts—maybe once a year tops. Plus, I’ve got enough cash on the side and rental properties coming in to cover my lifestyle, so I never have to touch my gold.

cosmicscout9 said:How much do you actually know about economics or what’s going on in the world right now? Seems like not much to me...

You've got a point there, I guess,
but look, I just finished up my degree in economics at UT Austin🤣
and I'm currently stuck out on this tiny, desolate island where I can only grab a decent internet connection once every three days for maybe ten minutes at a time, so how exactly am I supposed to stay fully looped in on every single thing happening across the entire globe?

velvetfalcon44 said:Look, I highly doubt they're gonna stumble upon some massive motherlode. They've pretty much picked the bones clean everywhere they've dug. Sure, there might be smaller deposits scattered around, but once you factor in the cost of moving tons of dirt, fuel, heavy machinery, labor, and all those permits... I seriously doubt anyone could turn a profit selling at low prices.
That said, if you're planning on dumping a huge chunk of cash into this and you're going to be totally dependent on it for the next 5 to 10 years, then don't do it—though personally, I don't think you'd lose a dime.
As for me, I've got plenty loaded up in gold, so I don't stress over it or stare at charts—maybe once a year tops. Plus, I’ve got enough cash on the side and rental properties coming in to cover my lifestyle, so I never have to touch my gold.

Man, give me a break... you are living the absolute high life, aren't you?
Who could even compete with someone like you?
Gold, cold hard cash, real estate... seriously...

I remember reading somewhere that the cost to extract gold can run anywhere from $700 to $900 an ounce—I forget the exact figure now—so the price isn't going to drop below that threshold... which means, mathematically speaking, you couldn't actually lose more than 50% of your investment no matter what happens.😁

Michael Morgan5 said:There are plenty of red flags pointing toward an upcoming recession. I don't have the energy to write out a whole thesis right now, so just Google it if you want the details.

I'm with you on the second part. A slow crawl upward with some bumps along the way.
It’s tough to make a killing on gold, but then again, it’s also hard to 🙂
blow it all, unlike with Forex or crypto.

It’s the same old story, isn't it? You’ve got one camp out there screaming from the rooftops about an imminent recession, while the other side—mostly our own local experts and pundits here in the States—is busy flatly denying that anything is actually wrong. It’s like watching two different news networks broadcast entirely different realities at the exact same time.

That’s exactly why I’ve been staring at gold lately, because honestly, stock funds? Forget about it—I’m still nursing the wounds from that last market crash and I'm not ready to jump back into the fire just yet. And with interest rates sitting where they are, what am I even supposed to do with my cash if it isn't actually growing? It feels like you're just watching your money sit there doing absolutely nothing while everything else gets more expensive.

I don't know, I’m looking at this whole situation and it feels a little fishy to me—I mean, an 8% jump in gold in just three months? That seems a bit suspicious if you ask me.

Mark Sullivan62 said:You've got a point there, I guess,
but look, I just finished up my degree in economics at UT Austin🤣
and I'm currently stuck out on this tiny, desolate island where I can only grab a decent internet connection once every three days for maybe ten minutes at a time, so how exactly am I supposed to stay fully looped in on every single thing happening across the entire globe?

So, you're bragging about having an economics degree, yet you're out here hunting for advice on random forums? Make it make sense.
Seriously, how much did that diploma actually cost you?
What kind of "expert" economist are you when literally every single person on this board, regardless of their job, knows more about macroeconomics than you do?
It’s impossible to browse any news site without seeing endless warnings that we're heading straight into a crisis by 2020 at the latest. Doesn't matter if it's local news or international outlets.
-------

The current situation has me worried though. About ten days ago, I wanted to pick up some gold, but I was waiting for my paycheck to hit. Within five days, the price jumped $50 (per 100g).
What is going on with this massive rally? It's the third highest price spike in five years. Is this because of the recession in Italy or something else? How do markets usually react—short term or long term—when a G7 member hits a recession?

When everyone starts screaming about a recession, you know someone is intentionally pumping up the hype to manipulate the narrative
The real question is why
Because while certain people are quietly hoarding cash on the sidelines, the masses are swallowing these fear-mongering stories whole and buying in at the absolute peak of the market—just like you and me

And look, I’m not exactly out here bragging about having an economics degree, especially since you went and asked me how much I actually know about the subject
But I did sit through one of those macroeconomics lectures back in the day

Back when getting a degree didn't cost a literal fortune; honestly, they used to just list the tuition prices right there on the signs by the campus entrance

You haven't proven a damn thing by acting like you know what you're talking about.

Look, kid, I think you’ve got the wrong idea here entirely.
I didn't stumble onto this thread with any intention of proving myself to anyone,
and especially not to you—I mean, who do you think you are, thinking I owe you some kind of validation?

Why on earth would you assume I have anything to prove to someone like you?

The whole reason I showed up was to ask a specific question, one that, quite frankly, hasn't received a single coherent answer yet,

not even from a self-proclaimed "expert" like you.😉

You’re right, I’m not special. Neither am I more important than any other guy on this board, let alone your family or friends. But look, if I hadn't called you out for acting like some big-shot economist while hunting for info from random people on a forum—and instead dropped links explaining how economic cycles actually work? You know, where growth eventually hits a wall after a massive run like the one we've seen for over 111 months? Or if I pointed out that much of the growth in Europe is just a house of cards built on money printed out of thin air by the ECB, which is why Italy still slid into recession despite all that cash? Or if I mentioned how Trump’s protectionism isn't doing anyone any favors, or how things are heating up in Venezuela and it’s only a matter of time before the US steps in to liberate them using their own oil reserves? Or even the mess with Brexit hitting the UK hard? If I had laid out all those facts about how growth is stalling in developed nations...
If I’d actually explained all that to an "expert" like you—someone who should be teaching *me*—you wouldn't be hiding behind "who even are you?" You came to this forum to ask questions, so regardless of your degree, what I think matters just as much as anyone else's here. I didn't come to you; you came to us. The fact that you’re getting cocky because my takes don't fit your narrative just shows you're being an idiot and looking for an out. If you'd called me names, fine, that's part of the game. But pulling the "who are you" card is just pathetic.

Mark Sullivan62 said:Look, kid, I think you’ve got the wrong idea here entirely.
I didn't stumble onto this thread with any intention of proving myself to anyone,
and especially not to you—I mean, who do you think you are, thinking I owe you some kind of validation?

Why on earth would you assume I have anything to prove to someone like you?

The whole reason I showed up was to ask a specific question, one that, quite frankly, hasn't received a single coherent answer yet,

not even from a self-proclaimed "expert" like you.😉

The core question was why gold jumped about 8% over the last three months, if my memory serves me right.

The simple answer? Investors are pulling their cash out of risky assets and dumping it into safe havens.
When that happens, demand for gold spikes, and naturally, the price follows suit.
As for why they're doing it... who knows. Probably because everyone's bracing for a recession.

It’s also worth noting that we've seen much bigger swings—both up and down—in even shorter windows than this.

So, there you go. 🙂

SmartFart:

👍

See how things can be kept simple without all that unnecessary deep-dive philosophy?

If it isn’t Venezuela, then it’s Mali, Iraq, Afghanistan... name it, honestly, there is always someone, there is always some country being put under the microscope.
It’s the exact same story when it comes to global trade—if it isn't Trump causing a stir, then it's some Chinese official, an Indian conglomerate, or who knows what else; there's always someone making waves just so things don't get boring.

Nothing new here.

Looking for advice on how to buy gold in the USA.

I did some digging online and found a few options:
- physical investment gold: mentions of Goldman Sachs, various bullion dealers, and local precious metal shops...
- trading via exchanges: mentions of E*TRADE or Charles Schwab...

What’s the simplest and cheapest way to pull the trigger on this? It's my first time. I have a brokerage account at BlackRock, but as far as I know, they don't handle direct gold purchases.

Basically, I need two things:
- a specific brokerage name
- the commission amount.
- any other info worth knowing

Physical gold vs. paper gold?

With the S&P 500, you’re basically just jumping into MetaTrader and hitting either buy or sell—it all really just boils down to where you think the market is heading.
Just keep an eye on those overnight interest charges, though. If you’ve got a position sitting open and the swap is negative, those fees just keep stacking up on you if you leave it running for months on end.
The whole point of leverage is that you don't actually need a massive pile of cash to get started. For instance, if you've got $33, and you're playing with 100x leverage, suddenly you're working with $3333.
The real headache with these brokers, honestly? It’s whether or not they’ll actually let you withdraw your money once you've actually managed to turn a profit and close out your position.

Honestly, I can't decide between physical bullion or paper assets. My plan is just to flip it in a few months if I see a 10%-15% jump.
I'm not sure if buying investment gold for such a short window even makes sense. What are the overhead costs? Are there hidden fees?

ico1, I didn't follow your point about brokers. Why wouldn't I be able to withdraw my cash after selling?

Susan Hernandez82 said:Honestly, I can't decide between physical bullion or paper assets. My plan is just to flip it in a few months if I see a 10%-15% jump.
I'm not sure if buying investment gold for such a short window even makes sense. What are the overhead costs? Are there hidden fees?

ico1, I didn't follow your point about brokers. Why wouldn't I be able to withdraw my cash after selling?

If you're looking to flip it in just a couple of months, you're better off going through Plus500. But honestly, don't go straight to them—they have an Admiral Markets representative right here in the States. You can just sign up online.
Just to be clear, I don't have any skin in the game with them and I'm not vouching for them or anything, but Admiral Markets shouldn't give you trouble paying out if you actually turn a profit.
With Plus500, I'm a bit more skeptical because I've heard people having some rough experiences.
There's also the option of opening an account with Interactive Brokers, though they usually want a massive deposit—like $10,000—and they don't offer much leverage. Plus, the onboarding process is a total headache compared to Admiral Markets, which I think is way smoother. I opened an account there ages ago just to test the waters, but I never actually pulled the trigger on a trade.

Now, if you go the route of buying physical gold, you're obviously going to get hit with a commission, usually around 3.5% of the price.

When you're holding an open position, your main expense is the swap fee. Basically, every night while your position is live, they deduct a specific amount—you'll see it listed in MetaTrader when you click on the pair you're trading, whether you're using the app or their web platform.

Your best bet is to check in with Admiral Markets and see what works for you. But look, if you aren't familiar with how MetaTrader and all this stuff actually functions, you definitely need to do your homework first.
And hey, if you're planning on moving serious money, physical gold is probably the safer play—nothing beats having the actual thing in your hands.

velvetfalcon44 said:If you're looking to flip it in just a couple of months, you're better off going through Plus500. But honestly, don't go straight to them—they have an Admiral Markets representative right here in the States. You can just sign up online.
Just to be clear, I don't have any skin in the game with them and I'm not vouching for them or anything, but Admiral Markets shouldn't give you trouble paying out if you actually turn a profit.
With Plus500, I'm a bit more skeptical because I've heard people having some rough experiences.
There's also the option of opening an account with Interactive Brokers, though they usually want a massive deposit—like $10,000—and they don't offer much leverage. Plus, the onboarding process is a total headache compared to Admiral Markets, which I think is way smoother. I opened an account there ages ago just to test the waters, but I never actually pulled the trigger on a trade.

Now, if you go the route of buying physical gold, you're obviously going to get hit with a commission, usually around 3.5% of the price.

When you're holding an open position, your main expense is the swap fee. Basically, every night while your position is live, they deduct a specific amount—you'll see it listed in MetaTrader when you click on the pair you're trading, whether you're using the app or their web platform.

Your best bet is to check in with Admiral Markets and see what works for you. But look, if you aren't familiar with how MetaTrader and all this stuff actually functions, you definitely need to do your homework first.
And hey, if you're planning on moving serious money, physical gold is probably the safer play—nothing beats having the actual thing in your hands.

Goldman Sachs has actually waived that $10,000 minimum for opening an account nearly a year ago. There isn't much hassle involved; you simply complete the application and your account is active within two days...
I am not sure how it used to be, but this is 2019 and everything moves quite quickly and simply now...
In my opinion, the best course of action would be to buy a gold-tracking ETF if you are looking to speculate on a shorter timeframe...

I’m also wondering about the best places to pick up physical gold—and where one might actually store it securely, assuming we aren't talking about hiding it under a mattress or in a home safe. I'd also like to know where to offload it later on. My focus is strictly on long-term holding.

I'm going to run a comparison between Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers to see which one actually offers better value.
Since I don't move massive amounts of capital (around $10), keeping those fixed fees low is my top priority.

Michelle Gonzalez11 said:I’m also wondering about the best places to pick up physical gold—and where one might actually store it securely, assuming we aren't talking about hiding it under a mattress or in a home safe. I'd also like to know where to offload it later on. My focus is strictly on long-term holding.

Could you perhaps try reading a bit more?
In all the gold threads, the same shops in Austria are constantly being mentioned, along with local dealers here in the States and over in Canada.
Wherever you buy it, you can sell it back there too, and if you had bothered to stay active on the board, you could have simply visited a dealer's website and read everything they have to offer. They often provide professional vault storage services as well.
You can even order gold online; I have done this myself and wrote two full pages about my purchase process and the specific vendor I used just a few posts ago.
But clearly, you aren't interested in doing the legwork... typical American, too lazy to read when someone is handing everything to them on a silver platter.

The purpose of this forum isn't to serve up easy answers for intruders and the lazy, but rather to facilitate the exchange of genuine experiences and perspectives...
This community has been helpful to me, and I found the information on where to buy within this very thread, yet I saw no reason to ask again when the answer has already been written a hundred times.