Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Arthur Long5 said:Could you perhaps try reading a bit more?
In all the gold threads, the same shops in Austria are constantly being mentioned, along with local dealers here in the States and over in Canada.
Wherever you buy it, you can sell it back there too, and if you had bothered to stay active on the board, you could have simply visited a dealer's website and read everything they have to offer. They often provide professional vault storage services as well.
You can even order gold online; I have done this myself and wrote two full pages about my purchase process and the specific vendor I used just a few posts ago.
But clearly, you aren't interested in doing the legwork... typical American, too lazy to read when someone is handing everything to them on a silver platter.

The purpose of this forum isn't to serve up easy answers for intruders and the lazy, but rather to facilitate the exchange of genuine experiences and perspectives...
This community has been helpful to me, and I found the information on where to buy within this very thread, yet I saw no reason to ask again when the answer has already been written a hundred times.

You're being difficult🙂. Like I asked you to lend me $1,000 and give me a lecture on gold trading. I just asked for advice on a brokerage. A name and some commission rates. Shouldn't be hard. It's easier if someone lists 2 or 3 brokers than having to dig through 544 pages of history to find one. I know how to Google buys Gold and stuff, but I wanted first-hand feedback from people.

Besides, you could apply that logic to every single question here: "go read old posts." By that rule, nobody should ever ask anything. From now on, no one is allowed to ask about brokers or buying methods because, hey, there are thousands of pages, so go read.

Also, prove that it's "typical" for an American to ask questions that have already been answered. Because it's not like Americans, or Brazilians, or anyone else does it more than others.

I wasn't addressing you; I was speaking to the individual above you, you amateur.
Regarding brokers, there are dedicated threads specifically for them where you can discover the top-tier options, though you will find plenty of guidance here as well.

The question of where to purchase physical gold has been addressed at least a hundred times on this thread—you can find the most recent discussion just two pages back.
It is quite tedious to constantly repeat the same information, simply because every couple of days, some newcomer will inevitably jump in and ask the exact same thing about buying physical gold.

Susan Hernandez82 said:Honestly, I can't decide between physical bullion or paper assets. My plan is just to flip it in a few months if I see a 10%-15% jump.
I'm not sure if buying investment gold for such a short window even makes sense. What are the overhead costs? Are there hidden fees?

ico1, I didn't follow your point about brokers. Why wouldn't I be able to withdraw my cash after selling?

Based on what you just described, paper is the way to go for you. 😁

Yeah, I'm not looking to hold gold long-term.

My logic is pretty straightforward. Everyone's talking about a recession. No one knows how deep it'll go or when it'll hit developed nations, but economists have been warning about this historically long bull market and those sky-high Shiller P/E ratios for a while now. It's a basic fact: gold prices climb when uncertainty hits, especially during recessions. Plus, I'm not even sure if the dollar will stay the ultimate safe haven anymore, given the massive deficits the US has been running lately. Primary deficits in the US are set to shrink, China is slowing down, and stock valuations are through the roof... Everything points to a correction this year or next. In that environment, holding gold makes sense. At least, that's my take. 🙂
I’ll probably stick to paper gold—maybe an ETF like someone suggested. I've been browsing online, and Interactive Brokers looks decent enough.
Thanks for the advice.

Arthur Long5 said:Could you perhaps try reading a bit more?
In all the gold threads, the same shops in Austria are constantly being mentioned, along with local dealers here in the States and over in Canada.
Wherever you buy it, you can sell it back there too, and if you had bothered to stay active on the board, you could have simply visited a dealer's website and read everything they have to offer. They often provide professional vault storage services as well.
You can even order gold online; I have done this myself and wrote two full pages about my purchase process and the specific vendor I used just a few posts ago.
But clearly, you aren't interested in doing the legwork... typical American, too lazy to read when someone is handing everything to them on a silver platter.

The purpose of this forum isn't to serve up easy answers for intruders and the lazy, but rather to facilitate the exchange of genuine experiences and perspectives...
This community has been helpful to me, and I found the information on where to buy within this very thread, yet I saw no reason to ask again when the answer has already been written a hundred times.

Ljakse, take a breath. If you're just looking for a fight or a chance to lecture someone, you've picked the wrong target. I read quite a bit about precious metals and trading, and since I came here for advice from people with actual experience—rather than listening to a self-important, "know-it-all" North American type like you—I'll put it politely: Go touch some grass.
To everyone else who is actually sane, please, I'd appreciate some advice. DMs are open.

Thanks in advance.

Michelle Gonzalez11 said:Ljakse, take a breath. If you're just looking for a fight or a chance to lecture someone, you've picked the wrong target. I read quite a bit about precious metals and trading, and since I came here for advice from people with actual experience—rather than listening to a self-important, "know-it-all" North American type like you—I'll put it politely: Go touch some grass.
To everyone else who is actually sane, please, I'd appreciate some advice. DMs are open.

Thanks in advance.

Moro, if you're looking for them in NYC, they're over at the Empire State Building on the 11th floor—you just gotta navigate those elevators. You enter through the underground passage, then take the lift, turn right, and head down the side street.
If you're buying up to $10,000 worth, just go through moro.com and pick it up at their Manhattan office—you can pay cash there (or via wire transfer). You could also swing by their Chicago location. For anything over $10k, you'll need to do a bank transfer.
If you're using USD, just stick to moro.com.
Up to $25000 you can just pay cash on the spot.

velvetfalcon44 said:Moro, if you're looking for them in NYC, they're over at the Empire State Building on the 11th floor—you just gotta navigate those elevators. You enter through the underground passage, then take the lift, turn right, and head down the side street.
If you're buying up to $10,000 worth, just go through moro.com and pick it up at their Manhattan office—you can pay cash there (or via wire transfer). You could also swing by their Chicago location. For anything over $10k, you'll need to do a bank transfer.
If you're using USD, just stick to moro.com.
Up to $25000 you can just pay cash on the spot.

Simple, polite, and classy.
Thanks!

Michelle Gonzalez11 said:Simple, polite, and classy.
Thanks!

Don't even mention it..

Susan Hernandez82 said:Honestly, I can't decide between physical bullion or paper assets. My plan is just to flip it in a few months if I see a 10%-15% jump.
I'm not sure if buying investment gold for such a short window even makes sense. What are the overhead costs? Are there hidden fees?

ico1, I didn't follow your point about brokers. Why wouldn't I be able to withdraw my cash after selling?

Physical gold is hands down the better move. With digital, you're fighting swap fees, which basically forces you to rush out of a position too early and miss the real rally. Plus, whatever tiny profit you scrape together, the IRS is gonna take their cut. Don't forget the deposit/withdrawal fees and the whole "trusting a broker with your money" risk factor.

With bullion, there’s no tax headache, and time actually works for you instead of working against you like it does with derivatives.

velvetfalcon44 said:Moro, if you're looking for them in NYC, they're over at the Empire State Building on the 11th floor—you just gotta navigate those elevators. You enter through the underground passage, then take the lift, turn right, and head down the side street.
If you're buying up to $10,000 worth, just go through moro.com and pick it up at their Manhattan office—you can pay cash there (or via wire transfer). You could also swing by their Chicago location. For anything over $10k, you'll need to do a bank transfer.
If you're using USD, just stick to moro.com.
Up to $25000 you can just pay cash on the spot.

Moro is fine, but they're overpriced.
At Gold Bank, a 1kg bar is currently sitting at $93 https://www.bankazlata.com/kategorij...vanije-poluge/

While at Moro $94 ($0.92 way more expensive)

A gentleman who avoids reading—despite his claims of studying the gold markets—has just received some polite advice. True gentlemen don't spend their time reading; they simply act and purchase, regardless of the current price.

Even Goldman Sachs might seem overpriced at times, but if one refuses to stay informed, they will inevitably end up paying much more...

Physical gold is hardly a suitable vehicle for short-term speculation. The spread between the buy and sell prices is far too wide, not to mention the inherent risks and the ongoing costs of secure storage.

Working with a broker is a regulated activity, where assets are insured up to a certain limit. One really shouldn't go looking for trouble with obscure, offshore brokers when there are established, reputable firms available...

Personally, I hold physical bullion, though my intention is to hold it for the long term.

Anyone here actually used a small business account through Charles Schwab?

I can't find any info on the differences between these two accounts, aside from the small business one having two users.

I’ve got cash sitting in my business account, but getting it out is the headache. I’m thinking about just buying shares directly through the company, but I’m not sure if there are hidden fees involved. Aside from the corporate tax on profits or capital gains, am I looking at extra costs? Between commissions and capital gains tax, is there anything else I should be worried about?

Anyone here actually used Charles Schwab to pick up gold or other currencies? Looking for real experiences.

Susan Hernandez82 said:Honestly, I can't decide between physical bullion or paper assets. My plan is just to flip it in a few months if I see a 10%-15% jump.
I'm not sure if buying investment gold for such a short window even makes sense. What are the overhead costs? Are there hidden fees?

ico1, I didn't follow your point about brokers. Why wouldn't I be able to withdraw my cash after selling?

Look, you’ve got the spread, which varies depending on the dealer and what you're buying. Other than that, there aren't really "fees"—though I suppose you have to factor in gas, tolls, and grabbing lunch on the way to the shop...

Ico mentioned the paper route... the thing about Swaps is they nibble away at your profit through the overnight financing, which basically pressures you to close your position early. With physical gold, you don't deal with that headache; you just hold it and wait for the market to eventually swing your way.
If it doesn't move immediately, hey, at least you actually own the metal, and you can sit tight for three years until it hits $100,000... or maybe that was just Bitcoin I was thinking of.🤔

Edit... Capital gains tax! Totally slipped my mind. If you go the physical route, you don't have to worry about that hitting your pocket.

Michael Morgan5 said:Look, you’ve got the spread, which varies depending on the dealer and what you're buying. Other than that, there aren't really "fees"—though I suppose you have to factor in gas, tolls, and grabbing lunch on the way to the shop...

Ico mentioned the paper route... the thing about Swaps is they nibble away at your profit through the overnight financing, which basically pressures you to close your position early. With physical gold, you don't deal with that headache; you just hold it and wait for the market to eventually swing your way.
If it doesn't move immediately, hey, at least you actually own the metal, and you can sit tight for three years until it hits $100,000... or maybe that was just Bitcoin I was thinking of.🤔

Edit... Capital gains tax! Totally slipped my mind. If you go the physical route, you don't have to worry about that hitting your pocket.

I finally settled on a gold ETF to avoid dealing with swaps. It seems like the simplest route. Haven't pulled the trigger yet; waiting for my account to get activated and everything else.

I'm not expecting some massive moonshot either. This isn't a long-term play for me. A 15% return would be plenty. I already laid out why I think prices will rise. Nobody in their right mind is dreaming of $100,000. You'd need a total collapse. Like the USA going bankrupt or something. Probability is 0.001%. As for Bitcoin, I'll just short it.🙂

Susan Hernandez82 said:I finally settled on a gold ETF to avoid dealing with swaps. It seems like the simplest route. Haven't pulled the trigger yet; waiting for my account to get activated and everything else.

I'm not expecting some massive moonshot either. This isn't a long-term play for me. A 15% return would be plenty. I already laid out why I think prices will rise. Nobody in their right mind is dreaming of $100,000. You'd need a total collapse. Like the USA going bankrupt or something. Probability is 0.001%. As for Bitcoin, I'll just short it.🙂

Nothing in life is free! They might not call it a "swap," but it’s still gonna cost you. 😁

Example:

Gold spot price on 12/07/2015 = $1,071.43
At the time of this post = $1,314
Percentage increase: 22.64%

Closing price for the gold Vanguard on 12/07/2015 = $103.11
At the time of this post = $123.97
Percentage increase: 20.23%

With the Vanguard, about 2.41% of that growth just vanished. Brokers and funds aren't running charities here. 🙂

The Vanguard fund shows a tracking error compared to its underlying index.
Which specific Vanguard fund did you pick?
Some funds track their benchmarks more accurately than others, while some lag behind... there is always a slight margin of error, and one also has to consider the possibility of someone selling the fund below its net asset value.

A Vanguard fund characterized by high trading volume and significant liquidity should theoretically exhibit a much smaller deviation...

Arthur Long5 said:The Vanguard fund shows a tracking error compared to its underlying index.
Which specific Vanguard fund did you pick?
Some funds track their benchmarks more accurately than others, while some lag behind... there is always a slight margin of error, and one also has to consider the possibility of someone selling the fund below its net asset value.

A Vanguard fund characterized by high trading volume and significant liquidity should theoretically exhibit a much smaller deviation...

We're talking about GLD here—the absolute heavyweight in the gold ETF space. I ran the numbers on random stretches over the last decade, and the correlation is obvious: the longer the timeframe, the bigger that negative drift from the spot price. It makes sense, though. The fund needs to eat somehow.

If you're planning on parking a massive chunk of change for the long haul, physical gold is hands down the move. As for the guys trying to play the short-term speculation game? They almost always screw up and lose their shirts, so they couldn't care less about a sub-1% annual fee.

Look, you guys can't just lump physical gold, gold CFDs, and gold ETFs into one big bucket and try to figure out which one is "cheaper" because they aren't even the same damn thing!

1. Physical Gold (passive investing)—this is your long-term play. It’s perfect for people who aren't looking for some insane, overnight moonshot, but rather a rock-solid way to hold value outside of the traditional banking system.

2. Gold CFDs (active trading)—these are strictly for short-term speculation. If you think you're going to hold a CFD for more than a few months, you’re basically just lighting money on fire paying those massive interest rates that dwarf any physical gold spread. Honestly, most people playing with CFDs end up getting wiped out because they start making stupid decisions almost immediately.

3. Gold ETFs (active trading)—these are mostly used by big institutional players to hedge their massive physical holdings or for slightly longer speculative bets. Again, when amateurs jump in trying to speculate, they usually just end up losing their shirts.

It all boils down to what your actual goal is! If you’re just looking for a quick gamble, don't even bother looking at physical gold, but if you're someone trying to preserve wealth over the long haul through passive investing, then physical is really your only real option.

It shouldn't be a shock that the vast majority of people lose money through active trading. Even the standard risk disclaimers you see from brokers claim that 80% of people lose money within their first year, and we all know how easily those numbers can be massaged, so the real percentage of losers is probably much higher. It honestly baffles me when people take every cent they've ever saved and dump it into speculative instruments without a second thought, only to act completely surprised when they lose it all. And of course, they always find someone else to blame—the broker, some analyst, Trump, or Brexit!

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy speculating too, but if I don't have at least four hours a day to sit down and actually dissect the market, I'm not touching a single trade. Besides, I stick to that old rule of thumb that at least a third of my net worth should stay tucked away in physical gold.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Just a quick reminder about what happened back in August 2011 regarding gold. We shot from $1,600 to $1,800 in the blink of an eye. Then, barely a month later, we hit $1,921.
Time your entries wisely...
Interestingly enough, if you divide $1,921 by the low of $260, you get 7.3—a figure I’m roughly expecting for the gold peak in the thousands...

"Follow the sequence"

Michael Morgan5 said:Fair enough.
Can anyone give me a rough idea of when that peak might actually hit?

Robert Vaughn10 said:2019-2020.

"Roughly mid-way through the stretch."

Miomir, don't think for a second that I've forgotten 😉

The beginning looks promising; buckle up, because we're in for a ride. 🙂

Fair enough. It’s worth noting that both Jim Rickards and Rob Kirby called that 20% stock market crash with precision. That isn't a minor miss. Jim Rickards was actually back on Twitter recently doubling down on that exact sentiment. Mike Maloney weighed in too, focusing on how interest rates and debt levels render any stock market gains largely irrelevant. If you ask me, a defensive posture was the only move, yet there was zero urgency when the housing bubble was actually inflating. Given current interest rates? Eurasia has roughly 4 billion people, while the US sits at about 300 million. This smells like a banking crisis to me.
On the other hand, Jim Sinclair—who really knows his way around these markets—has identified $1,400 per ounce of gold as the critical "inversion point." We aren't far from that mark. I’d go a step further and suggest the most massive percentage swing in the metals market will happen within the very first year.

"Keep an eye out"

Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, but I didn't want to start a whole new thread just for this, and I figured the experts here would know the deal.

Is there actually a safe place to store physical gold?

Don't get me wrong—I’m not asking anyone to tell me where they hide their stash; I'm not that crazy. I'm more curious about whether things like a bank safety deposit box are even an option, or if there are legal limits on what you can hold. I've heard rumors that it's actually not allowed, but I can't find anything clear about it on any bank websites.

I realize a lot of people here don't trust the banking system, so my question might sound a bit silly to some. But honestly, I deal with attempted break-ins at my house every couple of years, so keeping everything under my roof just doesn't feel smart. I'd much rather have it tucked away somewhere else.