Gold: Past, Present, and Future

dustyheron5 said:Copper has broken through $1,500. 🎉

Well, damn... it hit $1,499.66 first.
It was a long road getting here, 😛
to say the least.

Michael Morgan5 said:About a year or so back, our buddy Miomir put out a forecast predicting we'd hit 7k by the end of 2020.
Honestly, I thought he was dreaming (no offense, Miomir 😉 ).
Well, we're getting there, though we're sitting just a tiny bit short of that mark right now.

People were out here shouting about hitting 3,000 or 5,000 by late 2015 or 2016, yet the index never even touched 2,000.
Seven thousand is a massive stretch. Honestly, expecting it to even break through 2,000 is a tall order—let’s be ambitious and say 2,500.
Predictions are one thing, but you have to account for the actual market and how the US, China, and Russia pull the strings of the global economy.

Even though gold is sitting just about $40 shy of its ATH, I’m really not buying the hype that it’s going to smash through the $1,500 mark.
A few different things have collided lately—you've got the tension with Iran, the FedEx announcement regarding interest rate cuts, and most importantly, this trade war with China—but those kinds of frenzies never last forever, even if things are never boring when Trump is around.
The big question mark that's still hanging over us is what happens with a recession. Word is that Germany has already slipped into one, but we probably won't see the full picture until after the first quarter of next year.

Michael Morgan5 said:Well, damn... it hit $1,499.66 first.
It was a long road getting here, 😛
to say the least.

That was yesterday. 😉

Today, we’re looking at $1,510😁
https://www.investing.com/

We might see a few more dips below the 1,500 mark—but the upward trend is holding.

P.S. — looks like it's actually still hovering below 1,500; Investing.com isn't updating properly (honestly, I have no idea what their tech team is doing).

If the Federal Reserve starts chipping away at rates—which looks like the plan anyway—gold hits 0% interest environments easily and cruises right past its previous all-time highs. Silver will likely follow suit with a slight delay... looking at the current Au/Ag ratio, silver seems like the much more logical play here.

Besides, gold is already hitting all-time highs against most major currencies...

“Gold remains shielded by various Core market themes,” argued Lukman Otunug, a senior research analyst over at FXTM, in a recent daily briefing. “As long as we’re dealing with geopolitical friction, the fallout from political instability, shaky global growth projections, and the Federal Reserve potentially loosening up monetary policy—the bulls are firmly in the driver's seat.”

Some good news at last:

Gold for December delivery GCZ19, up 1.08% on Comex, climbed $13.70—a solid 0.9% jump—to settle at $1,527.80 an ounce, bouncing back after Tuesday's slight 0.2% dip. According to Bloomberg data, this settlement marks the highest level we've seen for this high-volume contract since mid-April 2013. Not to be outdone, September silver SIU19, up 1.50%, gained 29.5 cents—a 1.7% increase—to hit $17.28 an ounce.

“As long as we’re stuck dealing with geopolitical friction, political uncertainty in the UK, shaky global growth, and central banks continuing to loosen their grip on monetary policy, the bulls are going to run this show.”

Greetings to everyone.

I have two questions regarding current market conditions...

1. What exactly is driving this massive surge in gold prices we've seen over the last few months? I suppose there must be some underlying reason for such a sudden spike.

2. I am considering purchasing a very small amount of gold. Given the unsettling price jumps recently—and considering that gold generally follows standard bull and bear cycles—I am somewhat uncertain whether it would be wiser to buy now or perhaps wait until the end of the year.

I would appreciate any insights you might be willing to share.

William Sanders6 said:Greetings to everyone.

I have two questions regarding current market conditions...

1. What exactly is driving this massive surge in gold prices we've seen over the last few months? I suppose there must be some underlying reason for such a sudden spike.

2. I am considering purchasing a very small amount of gold. Given the unsettling price jumps recently—and considering that gold generally follows standard bull and bear cycles—I am somewhat uncertain whether it would be wiser to buy now or perhaps wait until the end of the year.

I would appreciate any insights you might be willing to share.

So, you have zero clue why gold is climbing, yet somehow you "know" you should probably wait until the end of the year? Also, what exactly constitutes a "tiny amount"—we talking a couple of grams or actual ounces?

If she buys right now, the price will likely drop—but if she waits until the end of the year, it’s going to climb. It really is that simple. 😁

William Sanders6 said:Greetings to everyone.

I have two questions regarding current market conditions...

1. What exactly is driving this massive surge in gold prices we've seen over the last few months? I suppose there must be some underlying reason for such a sudden spike.

2. I am considering purchasing a very small amount of gold. Given the unsettling price jumps recently—and considering that gold generally follows standard bull and bear cycles—I am somewhat uncertain whether it would be wiser to buy now or perhaps wait until the end of the year.

I would appreciate any insights you might be willing to share.

It jumped because demand is up, and since the spike is pretty massive, the demand behind it is massive too.
There aren't really any big mysteries here... investors are moving their cash into safer assets because they're bracing for a recession.
On top of that, interest rates on savings accounts are dropping, Trump is at war with the Chinese person over tariffs and exchange rates, and things are messy with Iran... there you go. 🙂
If you're only buying a tiny amount of gold, it doesn't really matter when or where you grab it.
Just don't buy it from a mall jeweler.

haha... somewhere around 😁

What’s the play here regarding China's massive gold buying spree lately—trying to beef up those reserves? How do we think that impacts future prices, especially if we hit a recession before the next US election cycle kicks off?

analogbear5 said:What’s the play here regarding China's massive gold buying spree lately—trying to beef up those reserves? How do we think that impacts future prices, especially if we hit a recession before the next US election cycle kicks off?

Honestly, until the petrodollar and the SWIFT system are actually phased out, all these central bank maneuvers are mostly speculative and driven by political posturing. That said, I am personally bracing for a major rally. I wouldn't be surprised to see gold prices surge back toward those 2011 levels when an ounce was trading north of $2,000.

It hit $1,900—didn't even touch $1,901.
So, when are we actually seeing $2k per ounce?
2025?

Just two "experts" out here throwing random numbers around... total nonsense 😁

The ounce on Close hasn't seen anything higher than 1850. Back at High, it hit 1920. ☕

Gotta ask three questions here (might sound dumb, but whatever). 😁

1. Why the hell is everyone fighting over tiny fluctuations in the spot price when actual gold bars and coins always carry a premium anyway?

2. Why does anyone even care about the ATH when 99.9999% of people haven't bought or sold at those exact levels?

3. Why are we obsessing over the USD price when almost everyone on this forum is trading in Dollars or maybe just local cash?

In terms of actual purchasing power, the price is only a few percent off that record. Besides, even the folks who were buying back in 2011 when things peaked probably didn't have the luck to nail that exact peak day.

1. Look, there isn't some massive blowout happening here. Besides, not everyone is out there hoarding physical gold bars; there are plenty of other setups where the spot price of a coin or a bar isn't even the main benchmark they're watching.

2. ATH is just a number. Sure, it’s convenient to line up prices, stock indices, and whatever else from 2011 against today's data to try and draw some conclusions, but let's be real—you could easily end up being dead wrong. 🙂

3. That’s actually a solid question. Especially when you consider how the EUR/USD pair looked back when gold hit its ATH in terms of the dollar—it was a completely different animal compared to what we're seeing now.
I don't know... personally, I'm keeping my eyes on gold/EUR.

dustyheron5 said:If she buys right now, the price will likely drop—but if she waits until the end of the year, it’s going to climb. It really is that simple. 😁

That’s exactly right. 😁 Perhaps there’s some merit to a split approach—buying half now and holding the other half for later. I suppose that might be a way to hedge against volatility, though I can't say for certain if it's the smartest move. Maybe. 😁

Michael Morgan5 said:It jumped because demand is up, and since the spike is pretty massive, the demand behind it is massive too.
There aren't really any big mysteries here... investors are moving their cash into safer assets because they're bracing for a recession.
On top of that, interest rates on savings accounts are dropping, Trump is at war with the Chinese person over tariffs and exchange rates, and things are messy with Iran... there you go. 🙂
If you're only buying a tiny amount of gold, it doesn't really matter when or where you grab it.
Just don't buy it from a mall jeweler.

I appreciate the thoughtful response.
I know some people are bracing for a crisis as early as the start of next year, while others think we won't see the hammer drop for maybe two years. I’ve been wondering if gold's recent surge is just a direct reaction to those specific fears, or if I somehow missed some major headline that triggered this move. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but I figured it was worth asking just in case.
I am buying a very modest amount. 🕺 I suppose I view this more as a form of long-term savings—whether that holds up for the short term or the long haul remains to be seen. I really have no desire to hold onto cash right now, given those specific market predictions we've been discussing.