Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Here is my take on the whole situation.
At the start of the year, I found myself sitting on an extra $10,000,
and after thinking it over for quite some time, I decided to put $2,000 into gold and just blow the rest on whatever nonsense I felt like—which isn't really a crime...
As it stands now, that $2,000 has grown to about $2,200 or $2,300. If I had dumped the full $10,000 into it, I’d probably be looking at $11,000 or $12,000 right now, which would have given me even more money to waste on useless things.
But honestly, I am perfectly content with how things turned out.
The idea is to buy gold using money you already have on hand, but money that you don't actually need for your day-to-day life, or money you know you won't need anytime soon.
Forget about trying to play the market; you'll just end up getting burned, much like those people who lost everything in those big hedge funds and whatnot...
Your strategy should be to buy it, forget it exists, and then check back in maybe 10 or 15 years....
If you have the kind of extra capital where this makes sense, then by all means, buy some gold.
If you don't, then don't even bother.

Gold is hitting all-time highs against almost every major currency—except for the US Dollar.
But don't expect that to last; the shift is coming sooner rather than later.

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/sta...664259/photo/1

The multi-month breakout in metals is still gaining steam, especially over this past week. Silver is closing in on $20, hitting a multi-year high. Right now, all eyes are on the miners. We touched on Hycroft Mining a few years back—they’ve got a billion ounces of silver in play at a single site, plus some gold to boot. They aren't publicly traded at the moment.

https://www.nnbusinessview.com/news/...ar-winnemucca/

If something happens with this mine in the next few months or even a year—say they go public and things align with the broader market—buying in at the absolute bottom could yield returns comparable to certain cryptocurrencies. That said, I suspect there are even more interesting plays among the mining stocks...
A good chunk of those tickers are listed on the NYSE.
Word on the street is that it might be time to loosen up a bit...

"penny stocks are recommended"

@King Elvis, who did you buy from? And who was the buyer? Are we talking investment gold, bullion bars, or what?

I’ve got a question for the group. Has anyone here actually tried SELLING investment gold to BlackRock—whether it's their outfit in Europe or if they've finally set up shop here in the States? I have my reasons for being skeptical—just curious if anyone has real-world experience with them?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dr...guidance-eases

Looks like Mario just declared war on America 😁
A new round of QE !!! is officially incoming

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...undering-laws/

Back before 2017, you could pick up gold anonymously if you were staying under $15,000. Then, in 2017, they dropped that ceiling down to $10,000. Fast forward to 2020, and now Merkel has absolutely gutted it—slashing the limit to a measly $2,000.

is this actually legit??

Looks like it’s spot on, starting from January 2020:

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse..._10916613.html

If you day trade five times in a single day, you're looking at $10,000.
I honestly don't get all the drama...

Gregory Wells5 said:If you day trade five times in a single day, you're looking at $10,000.
I honestly don't get all the drama...

There is no drama for people like us—we understand the mechanics of how this works. But a German wouldn't even begin to grasp it.

The real crisis lies in the push for total liquidation of physical cash and coins in favor of a purely digital currency. That is the endgame: total surveillance via the elimination of the black market, coupled with negative interest rates. It is nothing less than absolute state repression against the citizenry.

Is it actually worth picking up some Swiss Francs as a hedge against a total USD/EUR meltdown?

On Topic:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ce...e-needed-start

An article released by the Federal Reserve has left quite a few people reeling with its assertion that "if the system collapses, the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again. Gold bolsters confidence in The stability of The central bank's balance sheet and creates a sense of security."

When everything starts falling apart, you need some kind of anchor to steady the ship. If we’re looking at a total systemic collapse, gold would likely be the go-to stabilizer for both the USD and the Euro. That leaves us wondering: what are the actual odds of the Dollar and the Euro cratering at the exact same time? And when people say "collapse," are we really talking about hyperinflation here? Especially when you consider the specific ingredients required to trigger that kind of meltdown.

crimsonranger38 said:When everything starts falling apart, you need some kind of anchor to steady the ship. If we’re looking at a total systemic collapse, gold would likely be the go-to stabilizer for both the USD and the Euro. That leaves us wondering: what are the actual odds of the Dollar and the Euro cratering at the exact same time? And when people say "collapse," are we really talking about hyperinflation here? Especially when you consider the specific ingredients required to trigger that kind of meltdown.

The idea of a dollar or euro collapse is clearly swirling in the back of the minds of central bankers worldwide right now—after all, look at how much gold they’re gobbling up. We aren't just talking about next week; this is long-term risk management for the next 30 to 50 years. It leaves me wondering: is the Swiss Franc actually a more reliable anchor compared to all this other fiat paper?

Disclaimer

History shows us that countless civilizations have fallen and countless fiat currencies have vanished into thin air, so it's only logical to contemplate a potential collapse. Just please, DON'T THINK for a second that I am preaching about the end of the world or some sort of apocalypse.

Nathan Evans78 said:The idea of a dollar or euro collapse is clearly swirling in the back of the minds of central bankers worldwide right now—after all, look at how much gold they’re gobbling up. We aren't just talking about next week; this is long-term risk management for the next 30 to 50 years. It leaves me wondering: is the Swiss Franc actually a more reliable anchor compared to all this other fiat paper?

Disclaimer

History shows us that countless civilizations have fallen and countless fiat currencies have vanished into thin air, so it's only logical to contemplate a potential collapse. Just please, DON'T THINK for a second that I am preaching about the end of the world or some sort of apocalypse.

The Eurozone is sitting on over 11,000 tons of gold. The USA has north of 8,000 tons. Switzerland has about 1,000 tons. So, there's the breakdown of the "toilet paper" reserves. To be fair, ten years ago, I was right there with you guys, obsessing over the dollar and the euro failing. But my take has shifted a bit. If we actually see a reset of this current monetary system, my bet is that it’ll be driven by an overwhelming demand for the dollar—basically making it too strong to handle. One way that could play out is if the Eurozone falls apart entirely. Anyone got a crystal ball handy? 😃

Melissa Sanchez17 said:The Eurozone is sitting on over 11,000 tons of gold. The USA has north of 8,000 tons. Switzerland has about 1,000 tons. So, there's the breakdown of the "toilet paper" reserves. To be fair, ten years ago, I was right there with you guys, obsessing over the dollar and the euro failing. But my take has shifted a bit. If we actually see a reset of this current monetary system, my bet is that it’ll be driven by an overwhelming demand for the dollar—basically making it too strong to handle. One way that could play out is if the Eurozone falls apart entirely. Anyone got a crystal ball handy? 😃

Even Alan Greenspan admitted to Congress that the model he relied on for nearly two decades was essentially garbage. And honestly, we’re still running these slightly tweaked versions of that same model under Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell. Because of that, I think there's a very slim chance they can push interest rates below zero without triggering a massive, complex collapse of both the dollar and the euro.

Of course, nobody truly knows what's coming—not even the central bankers—so this is all just speculation.😁

My question remains: if a total collapse actually happens, is it smart to hold onto Swiss paper currency? Or would it be wiser to just buy some Swiss cheese instead?

Melissa Sanchez17 said:The Eurozone is sitting on over 11,000 tons of gold. The USA has north of 8,000 tons. Switzerland has about 1,000 tons. So, there's the breakdown of the "toilet paper" reserves. To be fair, ten years ago, I was right there with you guys, obsessing over the dollar and the euro failing. But my take has shifted a bit. If we actually see a reset of this current monetary system, my bet is that it’ll be driven by an overwhelming demand for the dollar—basically making it too strong to handle. One way that could play out is if the Eurozone falls apart entirely. Anyone got a crystal ball handy? 😃

Sure, true, but if you actually look at how much gold backs the monetary aggregates—the actual value—you'll see Switzerland is playing a completely different game compared to the Eurozone or the USA. If you're looking at the long game, you'd bet on Switzerland and the USD. Their commitment to preserving purchasing power is on an entirely different level than what we see in the USA or the Eurozone. That's why, historically speaking, the Swiss franc appreciates against the USD—it used to be the Deutsche Mark, and now it's the Euro.

The USD isn't going anywhere because it's backed by massive, brutal, real-world output. The Eurozone has output too, but there's a catch: it isn't a fully realized economic union like the USA is. Having a monetary union is one thing, but you also need fiscal and financial integration to make it work.

The roadblock to deeper integration isn't just a lack of political capital—though whether anyone will even bother to build more is a question in itself. The real issue is the structural mess within the fiscal sector. You have massive disparities in how member states handle public spending. Honestly, I find it hard to imagine anyone could sell the Germans on the idea of subsidizing higher social welfare standards in France or Italy, let alone shoulder their national debts.

Even if we’re nowhere near that scenario, I’ve got a question:
If gold actually regained its status and paper money became irrelevant, would the math change—specifically regarding how much gold a country holds per capita, or relative to GDP, or some other metric? That’s really all I'm asking.
I'm trying to wrap my head around the scale here—is 11,000 tons for the EU significantly more than the 8,000 tons held by the US? Or, say, would 9,000 tons in the EU be considered "larger" than 11,000 tons in the US under those specific conditions? And one last thing: is that 1,000-ton stash in Switzerland a massive deal compared to the 11,000 tons held by the rest of Europe, given all those large and mid-sized nations?

Hopefully, I made sense there. 😁

wearyotter36 said:Even if we’re nowhere near that scenario, I’ve got a question:
If gold actually regained its status and paper money became irrelevant, would the math change—specifically regarding how much gold a country holds per capita, or relative to GDP, or some other metric? That’s really all I'm asking.
I'm trying to wrap my head around the scale here—is 11,000 tons for the EU significantly more than the 8,000 tons held by the US? Or, say, would 9,000 tons in the EU be considered "larger" than 11,000 tons in the US under those specific conditions? And one last thing: is that 1,000-ton stash in Switzerland a massive deal compared to the 11,000 tons held by the rest of Europe, given all those large and mid-sized nations?

Hopefully, I made sense there. 😁

One thing to clarify: there is no such thing as "Federal Reserve gold." It belongs to the individual member states of the Eurozone. Out of that 11,000 tons, Germany holds about 30%, while France and Italy each hold roughly 22%.

If the EUR collapses, the Eurozone collapses with it, and every nation reverts to its own currency. Even with aggressive monetary expansion, Switzerland maintains a gold coverage level of about 10% against its monetary base. In a standard economic climate, those figures usually sit closer to 70 percent.

Switzerland is essentially the gold standard for macroeconomic policy—they actually care about preserving the value of their money (the franc). Over the last 25 years, cumulative inflation has been a mere 10%. Back in 2003, they implemented a fiscal pact—a set of rules requiring structural balance. If excessive spending leads to a deficit, they are mandated to hit a structural surplus in the following period. Interestingly, there is no rule forcing them to do the opposite. While the IMF frequently suggests that countries should use expansive fiscal policy to stimulate growth, the Swiss refuse to budge from their strictly conservative fiscal stance.

When planning fiscal policy, a surplus is often just the byproduct of underestimating revenue growth rates; you then have to adjust expenditure growth accordingly to avoid falling into passive fiscal management.

In the event of a total collapse of global currencies, Switzerland doesn't even strictly need a nominal anchor, yet if they ever did, they have massive amounts of gold to fall back on. I believe they hold about 6% of global reserves today. They likely regret starting to liquidate their gold portfolio in the early 2000s, which saw them drop from 2,500 tons down to the 1,000 tons they hold now through the end of 2008.

None of this implies we’ll see a systemic collapse within our lifetimes. Maybe the Eurozone and the EUR will go under, but I don't put much stock in the idea of the USA or the USD failing.

No cash left:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/li...d-launching-qe

The forecast calls for an additional half-trillion dollar injection into the monetary base over the next six months. That's a brisk pace. It’s finally becoming apparent that things aren't quite what they seem, and there's no realistic way to trim those expenses once they've been reached. Nothing new on the trade front either... President Trump has reiterated ten times now that the outlook is "good." We'll see. People are also watching Reaganomics, though I'd say that's a secondary factor.

"Have a nice chat"

The Federal Reserve has finally started picking up gold bullion after a 25-year hiatus.

crimsonranger38 said:One thing to clarify: there is no such thing as "Federal Reserve gold." It belongs to the individual member states of the Eurozone. Out of that 11,000 tons, Germany holds about 30%, while France and Italy each hold roughly 22%.

If the EUR collapses, the Eurozone collapses with it, and every nation reverts to its own currency. Even with aggressive monetary expansion, Switzerland maintains a gold coverage level of about 10% against its monetary base. In a standard economic climate, those figures usually sit closer to 70 percent.

Switzerland is essentially the gold standard for macroeconomic policy—they actually care about preserving the value of their money (the franc). Over the last 25 years, cumulative inflation has been a mere 10%. Back in 2003, they implemented a fiscal pact—a set of rules requiring structural balance. If excessive spending leads to a deficit, they are mandated to hit a structural surplus in the following period. Interestingly, there is no rule forcing them to do the opposite. While the IMF frequently suggests that countries should use expansive fiscal policy to stimulate growth, the Swiss refuse to budge from their strictly conservative fiscal stance.

When planning fiscal policy, a surplus is often just the byproduct of underestimating revenue growth rates; you then have to adjust expenditure growth accordingly to avoid falling into passive fiscal management.

In the event of a total collapse of global currencies, Switzerland doesn't even strictly need a nominal anchor, yet if they ever did, they have massive amounts of gold to fall back on. I believe they hold about 6% of global reserves today. They likely regret starting to liquidate their gold portfolio in the early 2000s, which saw them drop from 2,500 tons down to the 1,000 tons they hold now through the end of 2008.

None of this implies we’ll see a systemic collapse within our lifetimes. Maybe the Eurozone and the EUR will go under, but I don't put much stock in the idea of the USA or the USD failing.

One of the primary engines driving the strength of the USD is the oil trade, which has traditionally been settled exclusively in dollars. By mandate, OPEC members are required to price oil in USD. For producers, this was a convenient cycle: they earned USD and immediately funneled those funds back into the US stock market, effectively "recycling" capital back to the very buyers who needed it. It is a potent mechanism for maintaining currency dominance. However, now that one of the major oil producers—Russia—has decided to accept USD instead, we are seeing a significant long-term departure from the status quo. If Wall Street begins to record a decline in dollar demand, one has to wonder how many other producers will remain interested in using the USD as their primary settlement tool. There are massive political implications at play here. Once those dollars begin returning home en masse—assuming they still hold any real value upon arrival—the currency's value will drop, and it will happen abruptly. My prediction? The USD will collapse before the Euro does, regardless of how much economic muscle the US still possesses. The national debt is astronomical. Politically and economically, the US is growing weaker and more leveraged by the day. You simply cannot repay debts of this magnitude within any realistic framework. That leaves only two paths: a total default or a strategic devaluation of the currency in which the debt is denominated. A default creates a messy, permanent catastrophe that no one wants; devaluation is the "elegant" solution. This move would simultaneously wipe out anyone foolish enough to have accumulated massive reserves in USD. Ultimately, devaluation destroys all accumulated capital denominated in dollars, including pension funds and institutional holdings.
It is quite curious. Despite all the quantitative easing, we are still staring down a global shortage of USD. It’s a paradox, really. This scarcity didn't happen by accident; it's the direct result of the math. While central banks were busy pumping liquidity into the system through QE, global debt levels surged at an even more aggressive pace. Now, the bill is coming due. All that debt eventually has to be paid back, and that is exactly where the squeeze begins.