Gold: Past, Present, and Future

The New York Stock Exchange is still keeping gold afloat. We’re heading into a wild stretch where prices are going to swing wildly, though I expect a slight downward drift overall. If the DXY follows its projected path and we avoid some sudden, massive stock market crash, the bottom for this volatile period should hit sometime late April or early May. That doesn't mean things won't stay messy afterward—it just means once we clear that window, we probably won't see prices drop below $1,520 again before this bull market ends. I'm betting the floor stays north of $1,520; realistically, we're looking at something closer to $1,600. There’s a slim chance it dips below $1,520, but honestly, that feels unlikely and just 😁 complicates the math.

By the way, the DXY hasn't broken below 80.15 yet, so we're still just sitting tight and waiting.

Here is something for those of you playing around with fiat and debating whether gold is a bubble or a balloon.
http://www.oenb.at/en/ueber_die_oenb...tion_coins.jsp

The inflation of the money supply was an inevitable consequence of the wars, one which aggravated the social tensions and economic problems in the country. The citizens lost 90 % of their wealth on account of the hyperinflation caused by the excessive printing of money, the redistribution of incomes, the outflow of assets abroad, and the monetary reconstruction which followed.

If this isn't the absolute prime time to focus on preserving actual wealth, then I honestly don't know when in human history such a moment existed. When we look at the potential collapse of yet another fiat currency—like the US dollar—on the horizon (whether that's in 1, 2, 5, or 10 years, the timeline is secondary), playing games with that paper is essentially playing with fire. You’re going to get burned, plain and simple. In this light, trying to weigh gold or silver against a mere scrap of paper doesn't make much sense—it's actually quite a gamble to sit at that particular casino table, especially when every single table seems rigged with magnets and other little tricks pulled by the house management. 😉
The only legitimate way to preserve wealth is through physical gold and silver; everything else is just shouting into the wind.

John, you're wasting your breath... by the time they actually realize what's happening, it'll be too late anyway...☕

ironstag8 said:Here is something for those of you playing around with fiat and debating whether gold is a bubble or a balloon.
http://www.oenb.at/en/ueber_die_oenb...tion_coins.jsp

The inflation of the money supply was an inevitable consequence of the wars, one which aggravated the social tensions and economic problems in the country. The citizens lost 90 % of their wealth on account of the hyperinflation caused by the excessive printing of money, the redistribution of incomes, the outflow of assets abroad, and the monetary reconstruction which followed.

If this isn't the absolute prime time to focus on preserving actual wealth, then I honestly don't know when in human history such a moment existed. When we look at the potential collapse of yet another fiat currency—like the US dollar—on the horizon (whether that's in 1, 2, 5, or 10 years, the timeline is secondary), playing games with that paper is essentially playing with fire. You’re going to get burned, plain and simple. In this light, trying to weigh gold or silver against a mere scrap of paper doesn't make much sense—it's actually quite a gamble to sit at that particular casino table, especially when every single table seems rigged with magnets and other little tricks pulled by the house management. 😉
The only legitimate way to preserve wealth is through physical gold and silver; everything else is just shouting into the wind.

So miners don't provide value? They’re the ones actually "producing" the gold. Besides, the reality is that paper assets and physical holdings haven't really decoupled yet—and they might never.

Rudar. What exactly is this dividend tied to? When you talk about buying gold and silver, are you implying that’s where the stock's actual value lies? And honestly, who is guaranteeing your stake—especially when you consider how volatile things can get in certain parts of the world? We've seen enough nationalizations and geopolitical conflicts to know nothing is set in stone. I just don't see how people can ignore the fact that we are living through incredibly unstable times—but hey, I'd much rather be the overly cautious guy who starts panicking before the crowd than the one left holding the bag once everyone else starts running for the exits.

Of course the paperwork and the actual assets are going to split; it’s inevitable.
Just like any other pyramid scheme, this one is bound to collapse eventually.

ironstag8 said:Rudar. What exactly is this dividend tied to? When you talk about buying gold and silver, are you implying that’s where the stock's actual value lies? And honestly, who is guaranteeing your stake—especially when you consider how volatile things can get in certain parts of the world? We've seen enough nationalizations and geopolitical conflicts to know nothing is set in stone. I just don't see how people can ignore the fact that we are living through incredibly unstable times—but hey, I'd much rather be the overly cautious guy who starts panicking before the crowd than the one left holding the bag once everyone else starts running for the exits.

That’s a really sharp observation right there, and honestly, we are living through some incredibly strange times. What strikes me about that point is how it ties back to that old idea from James Dean about a massive wave of nationalization hitting natural resources—a concept that feels more relevant now than ever. Nowadays, I feel like the only way to survive is to adopt an "expect the unexpected" mindset; you basically have to bake systemic deviations into your strategy if you want to stay afloat. You really have to keep a close eye on how society shifts, because those cultural movements end up being the real key to successful investing. To me, investing is so much broader than just staring at charts or trying to time market waves. The era we're walking into is going to be a fascinating study for anyone looking to put their money to work.

I honestly feel like the next year or so might just be a massive, featureless void. We’re looking at a boring period of consolidation and a breather before the real story picks up again—at least when it comes to metals, especially gold. Things are going to look much better in the US; the Dollar will likely strengthen, while the rest of the world just gets used to dealing with whatever mess is happening over in Europe...

"The rest of the world will just get used to Europe's issues..."

That's like saying people will eventually just get comfortable with a plague outbreak...

Anthony Evans78 said:"The rest of the world will just get used to Europe's issues..."

That's like saying people will eventually just get comfortable with a plague outbreak...

People will adapt—it's how they handle every epidemic. Take Ebola, for instance; we're looking at a 90% mortality rate. Eventually, that 10% who develop immunity become the new norm, and then society moves on 😬 . It's the same pattern here: masses will fall, and a few will inevitably develop the immunity needed to survive.

Finally, DXY broke past 80.15... if it hits 81.5, the path is wide open. Now we wait to see how much this rattles gold versus silver. It’ll probably take them about a week to adjust, assuming this isn't the actual bottom.

The stock market just pushed the DXY back under our target level. Now the Dollar might actually be in trouble.

Just let me know when you're actually pulling the trigger
this week or next?
;-)

Look, even he can't tell if we're headed up or down 🙂

😁 Here’s the thing: we aren't actually talking about gold right now. Gold is just sitting on the sidelines, watching the chaos unfold in the bigger markets. It just finished its correction and is trying to find its footing again, which—let's be honest—is going to take some time.

The USD, specifically the Ben Bernanke, has broken through that "magic" level around 80.15 or 80.12 and is just hovering there. But the stock market shows zero interest in correcting itself. If the S&P 500 keeps charging ahead like this:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95828018616

Ben Bernanke:

http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/chart...ndex24hour.php

then we might see some downward pressure on the USD.

Personally, I think gold at 1675 (it even touched 1660 today) is a fair price for anyone buying physical bullion. Even if the dollar takes a hit—which would likely require a stock market correction, a scenario I find highly questionable—gold dropping significantly below 1600 seems unlikely. That said, anything under 1600 would be an absolute steal. So, current prices are fine. Looking at the big picture, prices should probably be slightly lower in a month or so, but if you're buying physical for the long haul, that doesn't really matter.

The real issue is that nobody knows what the stock market is going to do next. If we see a major correction and Ben Bernanke lets the USD run all the way up to the high 87s or 88s (triggering Quantitative Easing), then gold might face some short-term pain.

One more thing: despite the stock market hitting insane highs, mining stocks—who are shareholders too—are dirt cheap. The HUI is sitting below 500 (at 497.5), which is incredibly low. Most miners usually follow the broader market unless they manage to decouple and track gold, but right now, they are scraping the bottom and hunting for new lows.

This gold price (hitting near 1660 today) paired with these massive stock prices is a shock to many. Compared to the stock market, gold is a total disappointment right now.

So, gold hit 1650. It’s reacting to the rising USD even harder than I anticipated. If we don't see it sooner, I'm expecting a bounce right around the 300 DMA (roughly 1600). That little window where the USD dips and gold bounces could be the perfect setup for a quick play on mining stocks—they’re tanking right now and looking like they're hovering near their December lows. The real fun starts after that bounce, though, maybe toward the end of the month. If the stock market suddenly craters then, we might just see this correction continue. Right now, gold is stuck in a corner because everyone dumped their cash into the stock market. Everything is sprinting toward a parabolic move—look at Apple and the rest of the market—and like every parabola, it’s eventually going to pop.

I’ve got a feeling we aren't seeing those massive metal gains this year. These big-bank types always find a way to mask what's actually happening. The market looks green, but honestly, it'll stay that way right up until the presidential elections.
They're the ones pulling all the strings. Personally, I don't see them ever truly separating physical assets from paper ones because I doubt we're headed for hyperinflation or some massive panic-buying spree in metals. Still, you've gotta stay sharp. It’s pretty wild watching the Federal Reserve run these stress tests on the major US banks. Where are they even getting the data for those tests, and why bother if the economy is supposedly bouncing back?

analogharbor44 said:I’ve got a feeling we aren't seeing those massive metal gains this year. These big-bank types always find a way to mask what's actually happening. The market looks green, but honestly, it'll stay that way right up until the presidential elections.
They're the ones pulling all the strings. Personally, I don't see them ever truly separating physical assets from paper ones because I doubt we're headed for hyperinflation or some massive panic-buying spree in metals. Still, you've gotta stay sharp. It’s pretty wild watching the Federal Reserve run these stress tests on the major US banks. Where are they even getting the data for those tests, and why bother if the economy is supposedly bouncing back?

That’s just how bull markets work. After a massive 2.5-year run, you get a correction. Honestly, the correction is probably done—assuming we don't dip below 1520. I'm not even going to touch the "what happens next" conversation until we stay firmly above 1520. Once that's settled, expect a breather. We'll see consolidation before the next leg up, and that sideways movement could easily drag on for six months, a year, or longer.

I honestly think we spend way too much time spinning yarns about market speculation and quoting analyses from self-proclaimed gurus. Let’s get real: look at our own daily reality. Every single day, these gold exchange offices all over the country are buying up bullion from people who are starting to panic, and then they ship it right out of the country.

So, global demand for gold is constant, which I get. But over the last six months, we’ve seen the spot price slide by about 2% to 4% when you look at it in USD. I’m genuinely curious to see where this is headed next.
The key is staying unbiased and being as objective as possible instead of just listening to one side of the story.

Someone above asked if I would sell them some physical gold... Sure, I can sell you some—actual physical pieces you can hold in your hand—but naturally, it’ll be 10% above the spot price. It's not like I just found it sitting on a sidewalk somewhere. 🙂
My skepticism, or rather my realism regarding gold, stems from the belief that this bubble will deflate just as quickly as it inflated. It won't happen overnight, but it'll be slow and steady. If anyone thinks gold is just going to climb forever, or that it's a guaranteed inheritance for their kids, or that its value stays static per ounce—well, here's a great opportunity for you. Since it's already 10% above market price, it would have to rally significantly just to break even in a month or two anyway. 😁

Look, man—it’s pretty straightforward. If you're selling, they’ll offer you a bit under the market rate. But if you're buying, expect to pay a little north of it. And if you're just looking to offload some basic costume jewelry, just head over to the buyback office...🙂