Gold: Past, Present, and Future

dustyheron5 said:Look, man—it’s pretty straightforward. If you're selling, they’ll offer you a bit under the market rate. But if you're buying, expect to pay a little north of it. And if you're just looking to offload some basic costume jewelry, just head over to the buyback office...🙂

Spot on. Short and sweet—it all boils down to a few percentage points and that’s it. 10%? Ugh, way too much!

Mining stocks were this low back in August 2010, and here we are again right in the middle of this massive stock market rally. Capital is fleeing private equity for equities, but apparently, it’s skipping over the miners entirely.

What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you talking about? You honestly think someone just dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-blowing to me that precious metal prices are dropping while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said was either a lie or pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic movement... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This hasn't made any sense for a long time. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped in by the Federal Reserve.
Since when does a market where Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and outweighs the entire retail sector even make sense? They talk about a recovery, yet food stamp usage is at an all-time high, real unemployment is north of 22%, and the housing market is dead.

Anthony Evans78 said:What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you talking about? You honestly think someone just dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-blowing to me that precious metal prices are dropping while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said was either a lie or pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic movement... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This hasn't made any sense for a long time. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped in by the Federal Reserve.
Since when does a market where Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and outweighs the entire retail sector even make sense? They talk about a recovery, yet food stamp usage is at an all-time high, real unemployment is north of 22%, and the housing market is dead.

What are you even on about?
Unemployment over 22%?

Anthony Evans78 said:What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you even talking about? You honestly think someone dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-boggling to me that precious metal prices are tanking while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said is just pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic chasing... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This stopped making sense a long time ago. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped out by the Federal Reserve.
How can you call this a real market when Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and is larger than the entire retail sector combined? They talk about a recovery, but nobody's actually seeing it—food stamp usage is at an all-time high, unemployment is sitting north of 22%, and the housing market is completely dead.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44025672609

The S&P 500 has surged 30% since October 2011, while gold hasn't moved an inch. The stock market has gone absolutely nuts, while miners—which are stocks themselves and usually follow the trend—have cratered back to August 2010 levels. Translation: money is fleeing the precious metals sector and flooding into equities. If this vertical rally in stocks keeps up over the next few weeks, the market is going to pop, and at that point, both miners and gold will take an even harder hit. Gold is reacting even more negatively to the Dollar than I anticipated, so we can't rule out a further correction—we'd need to see it slip below 1520. I'm not betting on that scenario right now, but it's definitely on the table.

Anthony Evans78 said:What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you even talking about? You honestly think someone dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-boggling to me that precious metal prices are tanking while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said is just pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic chasing... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This stopped making sense a long time ago. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped out by the Federal Reserve.
How can you call this a real market when Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and is larger than the entire retail sector combined? They talk about a recovery, but nobody's actually seeing it—food stamp usage is at an all-time high, unemployment is sitting north of 22%, and the housing market is completely dead.

That's because you're convinced gold can only go up. Gold was clearly in a correction that might not even be finished yet, but you're still stuck in the mindset of that massive two-and-a-half-year bull run.

Anthony Evans78 said:What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you even talking about? You honestly think someone dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-boggling to me that precious metal prices are tanking while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said is just pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic chasing... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This stopped making sense a long time ago. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped out by the Federal Reserve.
How can you call this a real market when Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and is larger than the entire retail sector combined? They talk about a recovery, but nobody's actually seeing it—food stamp usage is at an all-time high, unemployment is sitting north of 22%, and the housing market is completely dead.

NYSE

Yeah, unemployment would be north of 22% if they measured it the way they did twenty years ago instead of using the current BLS methods. Did you know their model ignores "discouraged workers"—the people who just gave up looking for work and get wiped from the stats entirely? Check out shadowstats.com if you want a real look at how disastrous the US economy actually is.
The NYSE is losing its mind because the Federal Reserve keeps printing dollars relentlessly, pumping all that newly minted cash into stocks and inflating a massive bubble. No real capital is fleeing into precious metals yet. Real money hasn't even entered the fray, but once it does, we’re going to see prices skyrocket and a massive shortage of physical metals.
For the billionth time, gold can only go up in an environment like this—zero interest rates, a shrinking economy, absurd amounts of dollar and fiat printing, rising unemployment, a dead housing market, bank insolvencies, and a world drowning in debt, from the average citizen to local governments and sovereign nations. But since we aren't living in a free market, but rather one of constant intervention, we get nonsense like Alice in Wonderland, where the Federal Reserve announces a $500 billion injection and gold somehow drops by $70.
It’s hilarious that you’re labeling me as having a certain "mindset" just because I believe gold can only move higher. You clearly don't see the largest bubble in history—US government bonds—on the verge of bursting. When that bubble pops, the value of all those papers will plummet to zero. Unlike physical gold. Even if gold's price dips temporarily, its purchasing power will still dwarf everything else.

Anthony Evans78 said:Yeah, unemployment would be north of 22% if they measured it the way they did twenty years ago instead of using the current BLS methods. Did you know their model ignores "discouraged workers"—the people who just gave up looking for work and get wiped from the stats entirely? Check out shadowstats.com if you want a real look at how disastrous the US economy actually is.
The NYSE is losing its mind because the Federal Reserve keeps printing dollars relentlessly, pumping all that newly minted cash into stocks and inflating a massive bubble. No real capital is fleeing into precious metals yet. Real money hasn't even entered the fray, but once it does, we’re going to see prices skyrocket and a massive shortage of physical metals.
For the billionth time, gold can only go up in an environment like this—zero interest rates, a shrinking economy, absurd amounts of dollar and fiat printing, rising unemployment, a dead housing market, bank insolvencies, and a world drowning in debt, from the average citizen to local governments and sovereign nations. But since we aren't living in a free market, but rather one of constant intervention, we get nonsense like Alice in Wonderland, where the Federal Reserve announces a $500 billion injection and gold somehow drops by $70.
It’s hilarious that you’re labeling me as having a certain "mindset" just because I believe gold can only move higher. You clearly don't see the largest bubble in history—US government bonds—on the verge of bursting. When that bubble pops, the value of all those papers will plummet to zero. Unlike physical gold. Even if gold's price dips temporarily, its purchasing power will still dwarf everything else.

That’s not true—it can't "only" go up because it's been sliding for a while now. We likely won't see a major capital influx into precious metals until we hit the third phase of a bull market; I've said that countless times. The point is, we're living in March 2012, not March 2013. Globally, sure, we're in a bull market, but we're currently in a correction or just crawling out of one. Either way, if we're exiting a correction, expect a long period of sitting flat, catching our breath, or consolidating.

Look at that—platinum is actually trading higher than gold. Maybe we should've put our money there instead! 😍

http://hr.seebiz.eu/valute-i-robe/pl...lata/ar-29375/

I’m telling you for the millionth time: if those massive cartels have been rigging the gold and silver markets for years, why on earth would you think they won't keep doing it for decades to come?

It’s not like things can just keep going up when they’ve been crashing for this long.

I guess I should have said "they ought to rise" if you didn't catch my drift.
Let me rephrase: the President’s policies should be driving growth in an environment like this, yet prices keep tanking. It isn't some natural free-market correction; it's straight-up manipulation by big banks through paper shorts. We aren't looking at a "correction," we're looking at a rigged, twisted version of a "market." It used to be that corrections lasted weeks; now they happen in hours, which is why we see them happening all the damn time.

Anthony Evans78 said:Yeah, unemployment would be north of 22% if they measured it the way they did twenty years ago instead of using the current BLS methods. Did you know their model ignores "discouraged workers"—the people who just gave up looking for work and get wiped from the stats entirely? Check out shadowstats.com if you want a real look at how disastrous the US economy actually is.
The NYSE is losing its mind because the Federal Reserve keeps printing dollars relentlessly, pumping all that newly minted cash into stocks and inflating a massive bubble. No real capital is fleeing into precious metals yet. Real money hasn't even entered the fray, but once it does, we’re going to see prices skyrocket and a massive shortage of physical metals.
For the billionth time, gold can only go up in an environment like this—zero interest rates, a shrinking economy, absurd amounts of dollar and fiat printing, rising unemployment, a dead housing market, bank insolvencies, and a world drowning in debt, from the average citizen to local governments and sovereign nations. But since we aren't living in a free market, but rather one of constant intervention, we get nonsense like Alice in Wonderland, where the Federal Reserve announces a $500 billion injection and gold somehow drops by $70.
It’s hilarious that you’re labeling me as having a certain "mindset" just because I believe gold can only move higher. You clearly don't see the largest bubble in history—US government bonds—on the verge of bursting. When that bubble pops, the value of all those papers will plummet to zero. Unlike physical gold. Even if gold's price dips temporarily, its purchasing power will still dwarf everything else.

The seasonally-adjusted GDP Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for GDP-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of the U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.
The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

Umm...my point exactly...?
If we actually measured unemployment the way other countries do, it would be north of 22%.
Again, my point exactly.
But hey, feel free to keep trusting those official government numbers like they’re gospel...

What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you even talking about? You honestly think someone dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-boggling to me that precious metal prices are tanking while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said is just pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic chasing... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This stopped making sense a long time ago. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped out by the Federal Reserve.
How can you call this a real market when Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and is larger than the entire retail sector combined? They talk about a recovery, but nobody's actually seeing it—food stamp usage is at an all-time high, unemployment is sitting north of 22%, and the housing market is completely dead.

1994?
How high would the unemployment rate be in America if we actually started counting everyone since then?
Sure, the U-6 looks fine, but this... looking back 20 years... if we do it that way, we can just keep digging forever...

If you're looking to speculate, now might be the window. If everything plays out according to the current trend, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold climb back toward the $1,750–$1,800 per ounce range within the next two to three weeks.
If I had the capital on hand, I’d be buying right this second, but all I can do is offer my take.

It’s about the methodology itself, not how long they've been using it.
How on earth can you exclude people who aren't actively looking for work from the unemployment numbers?!?!
neondriver5, that makes zero sense... the job boards are absolutely flooded...

neondriver5 said:If you're looking to speculate, now might be the window. If everything plays out according to the current trend, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold climb back toward the $1,750–$1,800 per ounce range within the next two to three weeks.
If I had the capital on hand, I’d be buying right this second, but all I can do is offer my take.

My take? It hits 1600 first, maybe climbs to 1650 by the end of the month, and then we get a total meltdown through April and early May. If that scenario holds, the big question is whether the floor settles above or below 1520.

Looking at the unemployment numbers here in the States

A world without precious metals or actual cash?

Paper, a single bit, or even just a zero... it’s all the same kind of junk. Behind all of it, there is nothing but a massive, empty void.

Anthony Evans78 said:Yeah, unemployment would be north of 22% if they measured it the way they did twenty years ago instead of using the current BLS methods. Did you know their model ignores "discouraged workers"—the people who just gave up looking for work and get wiped from the stats entirely? Check out shadowstats.com if you want a real look at how disastrous the US economy actually is.
The NYSE is losing its mind because the Federal Reserve keeps printing dollars relentlessly, pumping all that newly minted cash into stocks and inflating a massive bubble. No real capital is fleeing into precious metals yet. Real money hasn't even entered the fray, but once it does, we’re going to see prices skyrocket and a massive shortage of physical metals.
For the billionth time, gold can only go up in an environment like this—zero interest rates, a shrinking economy, absurd amounts of dollar and fiat printing, rising unemployment, a dead housing market, bank insolvencies, and a world drowning in debt, from the average citizen to local governments and sovereign nations. But since we aren't living in a free market, but rather one of constant intervention, we get nonsense like Alice in Wonderland, where the Federal Reserve announces a $500 billion injection and gold somehow drops by $70.
It’s hilarious that you’re labeling me as having a certain "mindset" just because I believe gold can only move higher. You clearly don't see the largest bubble in history—US government bonds—on the verge of bursting. When that bubble pops, the value of all those papers will plummet to zero. Unlike physical gold. Even if gold's price dips temporarily, its purchasing power will still dwarf everything else.

I think you’re looking at this through a very narrow lens. You’re overlooking the fact that Quantitative Easing or similar liquidity injections are essentially just the central bank lending money to businesses. Here’s the reality: everyone is earning interest on something that technically doesn't exist, but if the money supply gets too bloated, the central banks can simply pull the plug. For instance, those large-scale liquidity facilities might be set for three years, but there are plenty of counterparts maturing soon. Therefore, central banks have plenty of ways to regulate the money supply. These moves effectively lowered interest rates for places like Italy from 8% down to the 3-4% range; without that intervention, they would have been in deep trouble. De facto, the Federal Reserve was acting as the lender of last resort.

On another note, you seem to assume precious metals are the only safe haven, likely because inflation doesn't touch them. But metals don't serve much of a purpose on their own. If you ask me, true value lies in resources: land, seeds, fuel, machinery, minerals, and last but not least, human labor and expertise. You hold a kilo of gold, while I hold 10kg of meat and a rifle with ammo—who do you think is in a better position?

Your assumption that "Treasury bills will collapse and PM will skyrocket" just doesn't hold water. The Federal Reserve will do absolutely everything in its power to prevent a collapse in Treasury bills and maintain some semblance of normalcy within the existing system. A total explosion in precious metals serves nobody's interests, so it isn't going to happen. There might be some sliding, but personally, it seems most likely that PM will continue to track the money supply—meaning they rise simply as more cash enters circulation.