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Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Started by Melissa Sanchez17 · · 👁 40 views · 3K replies

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Participants Melissa Sanchez17dustyheron5quiettrucker12Anthony Evans78Sean Carteranalogharbor44feralpuma12ironstag8Amanda Carter7lonehawk5briskjackal5Andrew Barrett4Dennis Fisher5granitegull51Zachary Mendoza2Christian Miller14neondriver5George Sullivan902nimblepanther18Jerry Wright6Patrick Moore3wearygull4Taylor Robinson51wearyotter36 …
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#321 ·
I tend to look at things through an empirical, common-sense lens.
The only thing I actually take Ben Bernanke at his word on is that he won't allow money to deflate—given current monetary policy, that’s practically impossible. They're essentially forced to keep printing just by the way money is created now.
Is there any number too big for them? 15 trillion? 30? 50? 100? I doubt it. At the start, QE was officially set at $700 billion, but it turns out they quietly funneled trillions to banks and corporations globally to bail them out, which really just delayed their inevitable collapse.
The Federal Reserve is making the same mistake as the ECB—thinking they can print their way out of problems when history has proven a thousand times over that you can't. No economic issue has ever been solved simply by printing paper.
I’m not saying precious metals are the only good store of value, but for most people here, they are. For me, the ultimate assets are land with drinkable water and actual knowledge.
The Federal Reserve has clung to one last step to maintain the illusion of safety in Treasury bills—buying them themselves using money conjured out of thin air. If I'm not mistaken, the Federal Reserve already accounts for more than half of all Treasury bill buyers. Mathematically, that illusion has to burst; it’s just a matter of which major player finally shouts, "The Emperor has no clothes!" You can't pretend everything is fine forever. And honestly, you can forget about a semi-normal life in the USA if oil producers suddenly decide to stop accepting the dollar. Dammit, we already have 50 million people on food stamps, unemployment is hovering around 20%, and our industrial base has been gutted and moved to China... how are we supposed to maintain any semblance of normalcy with such minimal systemic changes? I don't see it happening.
Thinking "it doesn't suit anyone, so it won't happen" is just burying your head in the sand.
Besides, precious metals don't even track the money supply. Newly mined gold and silver have only increased by 1-2% annually over the last decade, while paper inflation sits at 9-10%.
Take M1, M2, or M3 and calculate what the price of gold in dollars should be to actually track the money supply—you know, if the dollar were 100% backed by gold.
analogharbor44 analogharbor44 Active Member
126 messages
joined Jan 2012
#322 ·
Anthony Evans78 said:I tend to look at things through an empirical, common-sense lens.
The only thing I actually take Ben Bernanke at his word on is that he won't allow money to deflate—given current monetary policy, that’s practically impossible. They're essentially forced to keep printing just by the way money is created now.
Is there any number too big for them? 15 trillion? 30? 50? 100? I doubt it. At the start, QE was officially set at $700 billion, but it turns out they quietly funneled trillions to banks and corporations globally to bail them out, which really just delayed their inevitable collapse.
The Federal Reserve is making the same mistake as the ECB—thinking they can print their way out of problems when history has proven a thousand times over that you can't. No economic issue has ever been solved simply by printing paper.
I’m not saying precious metals are the only good store of value, but for most people here, they are. For me, the ultimate assets are land with drinkable water and actual knowledge.
The Federal Reserve has clung to one last step to maintain the illusion of safety in Treasury bills—buying them themselves using money conjured out of thin air. If I'm not mistaken, the Federal Reserve already accounts for more than half of all Treasury bill buyers. Mathematically, that illusion has to burst; it’s just a matter of which major player finally shouts, "The Emperor has no clothes!" You can't pretend everything is fine forever. And honestly, you can forget about a semi-normal life in the USA if oil producers suddenly decide to stop accepting the dollar. Dammit, we already have 50 million people on food stamps, unemployment is hovering around 20%, and our industrial base has been gutted and moved to China... how are we supposed to maintain any semblance of normalcy with such minimal systemic changes? I don't see it happening.
Thinking "it doesn't suit anyone, so it won't happen" is just burying your head in the sand.
Besides, precious metals don't even track the money supply. Newly mined gold and silver have only increased by 1-2% annually over the last decade, while paper inflation sits at 9-10%.
Take M1, M2, or M3 and calculate what the price of gold in dollars should be to actually track the money supply—you know, if the dollar were 100% backed by gold.

What would gold and silver prices look like if the dollar were actually backed by gold? Are we talking $10,000 for gold and $200 for silver?
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#323 ·
First off, it all depends on how much gold the USA actually holds. That 8,000-ton figure is probably just a myth; the last real audit was back in the 50s. 🙂
Then there's the question of whether the dollar will be fully backed by gold, or just partially.
And third, what exactly are we backing? Physical cash in circulation? Every single dollar out there, both physical and digital? Bonds?
http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/mo...e-money-supply
Either way, the numbers are much higher than what they're telling us right now.
Melissa Sanchez17 Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP
359 messages
joined Feb 2019
#324 ·
How much longer do you guys think this gold correction is going to drag on? Some people are out here claiming we’re basically at the finish line...
It all kicked off back in August of last year, after all.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#325 ·
Looks like the Dollar is losing its steam. I’m getting back into coal stocks—they're sitting at some pretty deep discounts right now. Honestly, I think that dip to 1635 was just the first floor I was looking for, especially since I was bracing for 1600.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#326 ·
We’ll just have to see how the Dollar holds up before the opening bell. Right now, it looks pretty weak, and honestly, gold isn't looking much better either.
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#327 ·
The Dollar has been looking pretty weak for the last 40 years, and honestly, it’ll probably be history in another 40. 🙂
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#328 ·
Anthony Evans78 said:The Dollar has been looking pretty weak for the last 40 years, and honestly, it’ll probably be history in another 40. 🙂

I was talking about this week 😁.

I'll give it a little more breathing room. The miners can wait.
Frank Walker7 Frank Walker7 Active Member
81 messages
joined Jul 2013
#329 ·
Anthony Evans78 said:The Dollar has been looking pretty weak for the last 40 years, and honestly, it’ll probably be history in another 40. 🙂

On another note, I have a quick question for those of you who see a direct link between a weakening Dollar and rising gold prices, or vice versa.

Let's say the Dollar keeps sliding for x number of years until it hits rock bottom. What happens at that breaking point? Does gold eventually peg itself to some other currency, essentially restarting the whole cycle from scratch, or does the absolute floor of the Dollar represent the ultimate peak for gold? It's one of those things I can't stop thinking about.

It's more of a big-picture question; as the Dollar falls and gold climbs, where is the actual limit to this system—what comes next? Like, what happens once a new global currency takes over?
Taylor Robinson51 Taylor Robinson51 Member
23 messages
joined Feb 2012
#330 ·
Frank Walker7 said:On another note, I have a quick question for those of you who see a direct link between a weakening Dollar and rising gold prices, or vice versa.

Let's say the Dollar keeps sliding for x number of years until it hits rock bottom. What happens at that breaking point? Does gold eventually peg itself to some other currency, essentially restarting the whole cycle from scratch, or does the absolute floor of the Dollar represent the ultimate peak for gold? It's one of those things I can't stop thinking about.

It's more of a big-picture question; as the Dollar falls and gold climbs, where is the actual limit to this system—what comes next? Like, what happens once a new global currency takes over?

Why would any specific amount in Dollars or Euros even matter? Look, one ounce of gold is an absolute standard that hasn't changed in thousands of years. A single Dollar, however, is a moving target; its value as a measurement shrinks every single year... In twenty years, people won't brag about saving 10,000 Dollars or Euros. They will talk about holding 250 grams of gold, just like how back in the day, nobody bragged about having millions in devalued currency, they bragged about having strong Deutsche Marks.

I suspect that in the future, the real metrics will be relationships like gold-to-oil or gold-to-wheat, rather than gold-to-Dollar or gold-to-Euro. For instance, nominally, I made a 20% profit in Euros on gold I bought a year ago, but my actual purchasing power gain is less than 5% if you look at it in terms of gas prices...
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#331 ·
Taylor Robinson51 said:Why would any specific amount in Dollars or Euros even matter? Look, one ounce of gold is an absolute standard that hasn't changed in thousands of years. A single Dollar, however, is a moving target; its value as a measurement shrinks every single year... In twenty years, people won't brag about saving 10,000 Dollars or Euros. They will talk about holding 250 grams of gold, just like how back in the day, nobody bragged about having millions in devalued currency, they bragged about having strong Deutsche Marks.

I suspect that in the future, the real metrics will be relationships like gold-to-oil or gold-to-wheat, rather than gold-to-Dollar or gold-to-Euro. For instance, nominally, I made a 20% profit in Euros on gold I bought a year ago, but my actual purchasing power gain is less than 5% if you look at it in terms of gas prices...

The point has been made.🙂
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#332 ·
The Dollar’s third attempt at breaking through the 10 DMA
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#333 ·
If the Dollar starts looking for a floor—and it looks like it’s already headed south—gold could briefly spike past 1,700, maybe even hitting 1,720 by the end of next week. The mining companies are the ones who'll likely walk away with the biggest payday here.
Melissa Sanchez17 Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP
359 messages
joined Feb 2019
#334 ·
Take a look at this

http://hr.seebiz.eu/fondovi/pbz-inve...lato/ar-30171/
wiredtinker11 wiredtinker11 Member
17 messages
joined Feb 2020
#335 ·
Melissa Sanchez17 said:Take a look at this

http://hr.seebiz.eu/fondovi/pbz-inve...lato/ar-30171/

Actually, I was just about to ask the same thing. What’s everyone’s take on this—is it actually worth the trouble, and more importantly, is it a safe bet compared to just sticking your money in gold?
Charles Ramos7 Charles Ramos7 Regular
529 messages
joined Jul 2010
#336 ·
I've been looking into that too. As far as security goes, it doesn't qualify for FDIC insurance, and the returns are a bit of a gamble—anywhere from 0% to 7.5% annually🤷
btw, JPMorgan Chase has a nearly identical setup using mutual funds, which seems like a better move to me.
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#337 ·
Great. Now we get to trade paper gold here in America too.
lonehawk5 lonehawk5 Active Member
161 messages
joined Oct 2012
#338 ·
That’s nowhere even close to the truth...
Benjamin King2 Benjamin King2 Active Member
138 messages
joined Apr 2007
#339 ·
Listen up, guys—watch out so you don't end up getting scammed with tungsten-filled ingots: http://ausbullion.blogspot.com.au/20...gold-bars.html
😁
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#340 ·
That’s exactly why people buy coins 😉

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